Can Randy Dobnak Resurrect His Career in 2024?

[Cody Pirkl]

Randy Dobnak spent all of 2023 stuck in St. Paul, after being removed from the Minnesota Twins' 40-man roster. The Twins' payroll reduction and a lack of pitching depth should create opportunity. Could 2024 bring redemption?

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints (photo of Randy Dobnak)

Randy Dobnak has been named the St. Paul Saints starter for the home opener. Then, after exactly the kind of twist we should have learned to expect from his career, inclement weather delayed that opener, and when it came, David Festa got the honor of toeing the rubber first. Dobnak responded with four superb innings as Festa' piggyback partner Saturday, though. Could it be the first step of a journey back to the big leagues?

There’s no need to deep dive into what transpired with the payroll and roster this winter. The summary of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda departing and not being effectively replaced is all that matters for Dobnak. While it’s fair to hope that Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack can pick up a lot of the slack, the Twins will need more than the five starters in the Opening Day rotation, regardless of how well the campaign goes. As of Saturday, we have official confirmation that Anthony DeSclafani won't be among the shock troops, as he's set for a season-ending surgery. The rotation depth chart beyond the MLB level is an assortment of names with upside, but there’s no Ober or Louie Varland type like last year. We’re likely to see several arms get an opportunity.

Dobnak is a different pitcher from the one we saw in 2019 and 2020. His bowling ball sinker, which was once an equalizer to any and all hitters, hasn’t been the same since the finger injury that ultimately cost him his roster spot. He’s reinvented himself, leaning more on his offspeed pitches and mixing in a four-seam fastball. His ERA over 5.00 in St. Paul last season may not be impressive, but his ability to limit the long ball is still a plus skill; he yielded just 12 homers in 126+ innings. Reports say that Dobnak has returned to the 93-MPH heat we saw from him at his peak. Indeed, though he only threw a few of the four-seamers Saturday, that was his average velocity on them.

It would be easy to say that arms such as Simeon Woods-Richardson or Brent Headrick should get the first crack at an opportunity with the Twins due to their youth and theoretical long-term upside, and they're certainly ahead of him in line, given their possession of 40-man spots already. It’s worth noting, perhaps, that these two had similar struggles in Triple-A to Dobnak's recent ones. They may have the advantage regarding long-term team control, but Dobnak is due another $6.25 million over the next three years. While this amount (hopefully) won’t hold the Twins back financially in the coming years, Dobnak getting an opportunity and making a resurgence of any kind is in the best interest of all involved. What does Dobnak need to do to earn another shot?

It’s hard to argue that Dobnak’s ability to limit homers will translate well to MLB, but his most significant issue in 2023 was issuing free passes. His walk rate over 10% was the worst he’s posted for any sustained period of his career. He’ll never be one to post strong strikeout rates, but if he can get back to the 5.5% career rate he put up before the injury to pair with his home run suppression, those two skills would likely be enough to find some success at the MLB level once again. To that end, the absence of any walks in his line is more important than the presence of six strikeouts Saturday.

We know what a successful Dobnak looks like. Even if the run he went on to begin his career was unsustainable, his skills were enough for the Twins to invest a bit in his ability to contribute at the major-league level. His health in 2023 was probably the most essential part of his performance, and if he can build off of the adjustments he made last season, there will be plenty of opportunity for him at Target Field in 2024.

It would be difficult to find a single Twins fan not rooting for Dobnak to earn another shot. One of the best stories in MLB in recent years, the former independent-ball pitcher and Uber driver still holds a place in the hearts of many in Twins Territory. Should he get another shot?

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[Dman]

Dobnak needs an out pitch and if he finds it and ups his K rate IMO he can make it back.  Still given the way things are working out with Festa, SWR, and Raya as future arms that look to have better stuff it seems hard for me to see Dobnak as a starter again at least for the Twins.  I think his best role would be as a long man in the pen.  He still generally keeps the ball on the ground and like I said if he can up the K rate he could be a dominant reliever in time.

If the Twins don't see a future for him I would suggest they call the Rockies up and see if they would give up something of Value for Dobnak as his ability to keep the ball on the ground would be a perfect fit for them and he doesn't cost that much.

 

[DJL44]

Randy Dobnak lives rent free at Twins Daily. He gets way more attention here than he deserves.

[bean5302]

Dobnak not being on the 40 man is a bit of a hurdle for him getting selected. Given his recent year performances, he's got a pretty narrow margin of opportunity, and the ankle injury really wiped a lot of his chance out already. Despite people knowing his name, Dobnak has never pitched more than 50 innings in a season at the MLB level, and he's 4 years removed from his last good season.

It'd be really nice news for Dobnak to put it together and find a way to be effective, but I'm not holding my breath. 

[jmlease1]

I think Dobnak will get another chance this season, just because they're going to need starts from 8-10 pitchers this year in MLB. But he's behind Festa, SWR, and probably Headrick at this point until he shows he can be less hittable and give up fewer free passes. I'll be watching his WHIP this season; if he's sitting up near 1.5, then he's not going to be a real option, even if he manages to somehow limit the runs. You simply can't allow that many baserunners, especially since Dobnak is never going to be a champion hunter of Ks.

He did a nice job in his first outing, and I liked seeing him be effective piggybacking for another starter; it opens options for him to be a long man and not just a starter.

Him not being on the 40-man will definitely keep him from being one of the early options to start, but depending on how injuries go, there's usually room to add someone to the 40-man during the season. If he doesn't get added back, it'll mean one of three things: 1) Twins didn't have enough significant injuries to really need him, 2) guys like Festa/SWR/Headrick got the job done and he wasn't needed, or 3) he didn't show enough in AAA to be considered an option. I don't think the 40-man issue will be a real barrier if he pitches well, but others will likely get a shot first. 

[ashbury]

If Dobnak had been an off-season minor league signing, we'd be talking up his chances "if he can just find that one tweak." 

We're thin at starting pitching and one or two untimely injuries for a few weeks combined with underperformance from 40-man arms at St Paul will have us reaching down to AAA for whichever non-roster arm with enough stamina to start has the best results to date.  If Randy performs, he'll have his chance - it's really all up to him, given how the major league season is played.  Last year for the Twins was such an aberration, we forget.

/ ninja'd, in greater detail, by jmlease1

[Fatbat]

Lets just say, hope it doesn’t come down to Dobnak being needed on the 40 man. He may not be done yet but lets hope he isn't actually needed.

[Twinsgypsy]

I agree with several previous comments where Randy needs to develop an out pitch that take him up a notch as a pitcher,  In addition, I think he would best help the club in the role as a long reliever/ spot starter because he is a different type of pitcher and has major league experience.  

As previously mentioned if he can have a good stretch at AAA where is controlling his walks and being  effective as the ground ball inducing pitcher that he is he might also be a trade candidate to another club in need if the Twins brass decide that they want to go in another direction.  

Either way it would be nice to see him be successful in the majors again after all the work he has put in over the last year.

[Jocko87]

It's perfectly reasonable to expect a contribution somewhere in the range of Kuechel or Discoflani as a high end.  There's plenty of value in that role in the back half of the season and I'd really like Dobnak to pitch his way into that conversation.

Give me 7 starts with a sub 5 era, I'll take it.

[strumdatjag]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Randy Dobnak lives rent free at Twins Daily. He gets way more attention here than he deserves.

If the Dobber makes it back to MLB, he’s a Mr. Everyman type we all cheer for, like Caleb Thielbar making it back after dropping down to the independent leagues or Jay Jackson making his first opening day roster at age 36.  These stories are much more fun than reading about Bobby Witt Jr. getting gazillions over the next 11 years. 

[Doctor Gast]

Since Dobnak screwed up his finger, and lost his bowling ball sinker & that out-pitch slider, IMO there's really no hope for Dobnak. Dobnak was a great GB pitcher and with his new slider which created SOs & limit his pitches. Instead of slowly incorporating his new slider only when he occasionally needed it, the Twins wanted to transform him into a SO pitcher, throwing that new slider regularly. His finger couldn't take it & quickly lost control of the pitch & screwed up his finger. Unfortunately we lost a perfectly good SP.

[SotaSports in NM]

I still have nightmares of Yankees fans mocking him on the mound chanting "Uber, Uber, Uber" during his rough tough playoff outing...

See you back in the bigs soon, Randy!

[DJL44]

20 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

If the Dobber makes it back to MLB, he’s a Mr. Everyman type we all cheer for, like Caleb Thielbar making it back after dropping down to the independent leagues or Jay Jackson making his first opening day roster at age 36.  These stories are much more fun than reading about Bobby Witt Jr. getting gazillions over the next 11 years. 

I am much more entertained watching Bobby Witt Jr play baseball than I am watching Randy Dobnak. I would love a team full of players as talented and exciting as Witt Jr.

[Shaitan]

On 3/31/2024 at 11:06 AM, bean5302 said:

Dobnak not being on the 40 man is a bit of a hurdle for him getting selected. Given his recent year performances, he's got a pretty narrow margin of opportunity, and the ankle injury really wiped a lot of his chance out already. Despite people knowing his name, Dobnak has never pitched more than 50 innings in a season at the MLB level, and he's 4 years removed from his last good season.

It'd be really nice news for Dobnak to put it together and find a way to be effective, but I'm not holding my breath. 

I think his contract actually makes his presence on the 40 irrelevant. He's the perfect candidate to call up for a single game and then waive, as nobody is going to pick him up. They could pass him through waivers all year.

(I say this assuming there is always a "flex" spot on the 40 or a 60 day IL candidate, as the team is rarely that stacked.)

But as others have said, he has to earn his way back first, and he's probably 3rd on the depth chart, at best. I think if they needed an emergency start and he was rested right now that they'd go with a bullpen game or waiver wire one-time start instead.

[Cody Pirkl]

On 3/31/2024 at 11:02 AM, DJL44 said:

Randy Dobnak lives rent free at Twins Daily. He gets way more attention here than he deserves.

I'm an unabashed Dobnak lover, and I think it's fair for anyone to be a huge fan. The fact is that he's probably 9th on the depth chart at worst for the rotation, and they needed 11 starters last year. Pretty decent chance we see him this year so it's worth checking in.

[Cody Pirkl]

On 3/31/2024 at 10:48 AM, Dman said:

Dobnak needs an out pitch and if he finds it and ups his K rate IMO he can make it back.  Still given the way things are working out with Festa, SWR, and Raya as future arms that look to have better stuff it seems hard for me to see Dobnak as a starter again at least for the Twins.  I think his best role would be as a long man in the pen.  He still generally keeps the ball on the ground and like I said if he can up the K rate he could be a dominant reliever in time.

If the Twins don't see a future for him I would suggest they call the Rockies up and see if they would give up something of Value for Dobnak as his ability to keep the ball on the ground would be a perfect fit for them and he doesn't cost that much.

 

I doubt Raya is up this year, but Festa should be. I'm not sure how people are still talking about SWR ahead of anyone on the depth chart. Maybe the spring training gains stick, but we have to see it first. Last year he had games where his fastball was in the mid 80s and he had major walk problems all year. 

[jud6312]

On 3/31/2024 at 12:51 PM, strumdatjag said:

If the Dobber makes it back to MLB, he’s a Mr. Everyman type we all cheer for, like Caleb Thielbar making it back after dropping down to the independent leagues or Jay Jackson making his first opening day roster at age 36.  These stories are much more fun than reading about Bobby Witt Jr. getting gazillions over the next 11 years. 

It appears Bobby Witt Jr. is going to be a great player and make KC a better team for the next 11 years. Winning. That's a great baseball story.

 

From Uber to Target Field, a lefty reliever making a comeback, and an aging player making his first Opening Day roster is feel good stuff that gets wedged into the news between the anchors signing off and the credits rolling ... they're basically Twiggy, the waterskiing squirrel from "Anchorman."

[jud6312]

If Dobnak takes the mound in a meaningful game for the Twins this year, things have gone horribly, horribly wrong. And if he gets an extended run in meaningless games, it likely means things went even worse.

 

He's a "fun" story, and good on him for securing financial security, but he caught lightning in a bottle for a brief stretch 5 years ago, and the results since then have ranged from a floor of "awful" to a ceiling of "meh."

[strumdatjag]

28 minutes ago, jud6312 said:

It appears Bobby Witt Jr. is going to be a great player and make KC a better team for the next 11 years. Winning. That's a great baseball story.

 

From Uber to Target Field, a lefty reliever making a comeback, and an aging player making his first Opening Day roster is feel good stuff that gets wedged into the news between the anchors signing off and the credits rolling ... they're basically Twiggy, the waterskiing squirrel from "Anchorman."

If Dobber does get called back, he better not get released at Target Field.   There want be any Uber job to fall back on in Minneapolis.