Is Brooks Lee Ready?

[jkcarew]

21 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Sure.  Guys like Castro & Farmer are adequate.  Adequate gets you an early October tee time.  We don't need adequate.  This guy might be special.  Not in St. Paul.

 

So put him on the 40-man and break camp with him so he can take a bench role from Farmer??

[C-Gangster]

11 hours ago, jkcarew said:

So put him on the 40-man and break camp with him so he can take a bench role from Farmer??

I guess cause when do we ever use Farmer.

[Squirrel]

53 minutes ago, C-Gangster said:

I guess cause when do we ever use Farmer.

Farmer played in 120 games last year. That’s quite a lot. I don’t have the breakdown of what positions he played, but he played all over the infield, as a backup/utility player should do. Brooks Lee is not a backup/utility IF nor should he be relegated to that role.

EDIT: He was pretty evenly divided playing 2B, 3B and SS. Then a small handful of games at 1B and OF. He even DH’d once or twice. And I don’t know the breakdown of games he started vs games he came into during. That is not a role that Brooks Lee should fill. That is the role of a backup/utility player

[bean5302]

On 3/8/2024 at 8:48 AM, C-Gangster said:

There is one short answer and that answer is yes. We could use a backup 2nd baseman this year  and there is a chance of him winning rookie of the year. last year he slashed 2.75/ 3.55/ 8.14 wich are great numbers for a minor leaguer. also he is 23 years old wich is  older than Royce Lewis when he first came to the big leagues. Also  he has been really good lately in spring training scoring some RBIs and he was meant to be good even tho the twins will never agree to this this year he is meant to be in a  Twins uniform he also he is really good because last season in 501 at bats he scored 83 runs had a 138 hits hit 16 home runs had 84 RBI and 7 stolen bases so yeah he is definitely  meant to be in a twins uniform if the twins would ever call him up.

Brooks Lee has quite a bit to prove, but some fans are really, really whipped up into a froth about him. Lee didn't hit last year in AAA and he didn't hit from the right side of the plate at all. As for his amazing Spring Training (which means little) .261/.292/.391 OPS .683 isn't impressive, and 1 BB in 24 plate appearances against dubious levels of pitcher competition isn't what I'd want to see.

Things Brooks Lee has going for him:
Excellent baseball IQ, solid fundamentals, good hit tool, still very young with room to adjust and improve.

Things which may prevent Lee from being an every day player in MLB:
Below average athleticism, mediocre power, can't hit LHP right now

2023
AAA Level = .731 OPS (wRC+ 78) <--- this is very poor.
All levels vs. LHP .603 OPS, .106 ISO, 3.7% BB, 23.9% K <--- can't hit from right side of plate
All levels vs. RHP .860 OPS, .207 ISO, 11.4% BB, 14.1% K

Austin Martin was absolutely considered a higher ceiling and higher floor than Brooks Lee when the Twins acquired him. Better hit tool. More athletic. Prospects are just that.

[C-Gangster]

13 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Farmer played in 120 games last year. That’s quite a lot. I don’t have the breakdown of what positions he played, but he played all over the infield, as a backup/utility player should do. Brooks Lee is not a backup/utility IF nor should he be relegated to that role.

EDIT: He was pretty evenly divided playing 2B, 3B and SS. Then a small handful of games at 1B and OF. He even DH’d once or twice. And I don’t know the breakdown of games he started vs games he came into during. That is not a role that Brooks Lee should fill. That is the role of a backup/utility player

Yeah, also I replied back to your message.

[C-Gangster]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Brooks Lee has quite a bit to prove, but some fans are really, really whipped up into a froth about him. Lee didn't hit last year in AAA and he didn't hit from the right side of the plate at all. As for his amazing Spring Training (which means little) .261/.292/.391 OPS .683 isn't impressive, and 1 BB in 24 plate appearances against dubious levels of pitcher competition isn't what I'd want to see.

Things Brooks Lee has going for him:
Excellent baseball IQ, solid fundamentals, good hit tool, still very young with room to adjust and improve.

Things which may prevent Lee from being an every day player in MLB:
Below average athleticism, mediocre power, can't hit LHP right now

2023
AAA Level = .731 OPS (wRC+ 78) <--- this is very poor.
All levels vs. LHP .603 OPS, .106 ISO, 3.7% BB, 23.9% K <--- can't hit from right side of plate
All levels vs. RHP .860 OPS, .207 ISO, 11.4% BB, 14.1% K

Austin Martin was absolutely considered a higher ceiling and higher floor than Brooks Lee when the Twins acquired him. Better hit tool. More athletic. Prospects are just that.

He has been really good this spring training. Also some people are better in the majors rather then the minor leauges

[chpettit19]

Is Brooks Lee ready? Maybe. Has Brooks Lee come even close to showing/proving he is in professional baseball games? Absolutely not.

[Trov]

On 3/8/2024 at 8:48 AM, C-Gangster said:

There is one short answer and that answer is yes. We could use a backup 2nd baseman this year  and there is a chance of him winning rookie of the year. last year he slashed 2.75/ 3.55/ 8.14 wich are great numbers for a minor leaguer. also he is 23 years old wich is  older than Royce Lewis when he first came to the big leagues. Also  he has been really good lately in spring training scoring some RBIs and he was meant to be good even tho the twins will never agree to this this year he is meant to be in a  Twins uniform he also he is really good because last season in 501 at bats he scored 83 runs had a 138 hits hit 16 home runs had 84 RBI and 7 stolen bases so yeah he is definitely  meant to be in a twins uniform if the twins would ever call him up.

You said two things that will contradict themselves.  Winning rookie of the year and being a backup 2nd baseman.  Backup players do not win ROY only starters do.  Now, I will agree he could make the team and compete.  I like him a lot, but only way he breaks with the team is if someone is injured because he will not break camp being used as a back up at 2nd base.  The fact he could back up many positions means he may be one of first called up, but with both Castro and Farmer on team they have the backup rolls covered.  

[TwinsDr2021]

First I agree there isn't a position for Lee right now so he will go to the minors, but the talk about him not being ready is kind of ridiculous IMO. Great players and franchise players are generally in the majors by age 23 and there is a reason players aren't up by that age, injury, not good enough, or have holes in their games, they all can be overcome and there a few examples in the majors right now that have done that. I posted multiple times on this site that multiple time all stars are mostly guys that are up at an early age and that should be the hope of a top 10 pick. If anything happens to Royce, Carlos or Julien, Lee should be given the job and see if he forces the Twins hand.

 

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

First I agree there isn't a position for Lee right now so he will go to the minors, but the talk about him not being ready is kind of ridiculous IMO. Great players and franchise players are generally in the majors by age 23 and there is a reason players aren't up by that age, injury, not good enough, or have holes in their games, they all can be overcome and there a few examples in the majors right now that have done that. I posted multiple times on this site that multiple time all stars are mostly guys that are up at an early age and that should be the hope of a top 10 pick. If anything happens to Royce, Carlos or Julien, Lee should be given the job and see if he forces the Twins hand.

 

What makes you think Brooks Lee profiles as a superstar player? Also, the average college draft pick getting to the majors is 3-4 years. Fast is 2-3 years. Brooks Lee is starting his 3rd year and he was over 4 years younger than the average AAA player last year.

Somebody posted this spreadsheet. Worth a look. a20-21 debuts are super elite players drafted out of high school. a22-24 debuts are very good players drafted from high school or college. a25 still produces some solid talent. a26+ are mostly roster filler. 

[TwinsDr2021]

17 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

What makes you think Brooks Lee profiles as a superstar player?

MLB has him as the 18th rated prospect, the athletic has him at 31, and fan graphs has him at 42. doesn't that mean he has that potentia?. Like I said there currently isn't a spot for him, but getting some action this year should help the Twins figure out what they have, instead of bringing him up next year and then trying to figure out what they have, (Like Larnach, Miranda, Wallner, AK, etc...)

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 hours ago, C-Gangster said:

He has been really good this spring training. Also some people are better in the majors rather then the minor leauges

What makes you say he's been "really good"?

Most of this has been wishful thinking and/or pure speculation. 

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Farmer played in 120 games last year. That’s quite a lot. I don’t have the breakdown of what positions he played, but he played all over the infield, as a backup/utility player should do. Brooks Lee is not a backup/utility IF nor should he be relegated to that role.

EDIT: He was pretty evenly divided playing 2B, 3B and SS. Then a small handful of games at 1B and OF. He even DH’d once or twice. And I don’t know the breakdown of games he started vs games he came into during. That is not a role that Brooks Lee should fill. That is the role of a backup/utility player

And Kyle Farmer had almost the same OPS at the majors as Lee did at AAA last year. 

I'm looking forward to seeing Lee, but it's not like it's a stone cold fact he's better than Farmer.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

First I agree there isn't a position for Lee right now so he will go to the minors, but the talk about him not being ready is kind of ridiculous IMO. Great players and franchise players are generally in the majors by age 23 and there is a reason players aren't up by that age, injury, not good enough, or have holes in their games, they all can be overcome and there a few examples in the majors right now that have done that. I posted multiple times on this site that multiple time all stars are mostly guys that are up at an early age and that should be the hope of a top 10 pick. If anything happens to Royce, Carlos or Julien, Lee should be given the job and see if he forces the Twins hand.

 

Seems like you are making the assumption he is a franchise player and therefore should be up because he is 23 years old.  Problem is his performance is not consistent with the assumption he is a franchise player.  Wyatt Langford was drafted a year later and he has advanced just as far as Lee in half the time and his performance in AA and AAA has been far better than Lee.  Langford's OPS was 330 points higher than Lee.  That's what ready looks like.  Even Anthony Prato's OPS was 260 points higher than Lee.  Seems like a lot of people just want to ignore what Lee has actually done and proclaim him ready.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

First I agree there isn't a position for Lee right now so he will go to the minors, but the talk about him not being ready is kind of ridiculous IMO. Great players and franchise players are generally in the majors by age 23 and there is a reason players aren't up by that age, injury, not good enough, or have holes in their games, they all can be overcome and there a few examples in the majors right now that have done that. I posted multiple times on this site that multiple time all stars are mostly guys that are up at an early age and that should be the hope of a top 10 pick. If anything happens to Royce, Carlos or Julien, Lee should be given the job and see if he forces the Twins hand.

 

I think he has potential.  His minor league stats don't warrant a rush to the majors.  He's been solid, not great.  Nothing so far suggests superstar.  Superstars have stats that look like video game numbers and stick out above everyone else.  He hasn't done that, YET.   He is growing, and that's what the minors are for.  My ultimate worry (for all of the hype created) is that he comes up and is "solid" but never a star.  That can happen to a guy with a high floor but a possibly limited ceiling.  That's not a useless player, but it would be disappointing and it could easily happen.

[Twinsrtheworst]

My opinion...but definitely not ready to start the season on the big league level.

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

MLB has him as the 18th rated prospect, the athletic has him at 31, and fan graphs has him at 42. doesn't that mean he has that potentia?. Like I said there currently isn't a spot for him, but getting some action this year should help the Twins figure out what they have, instead of bringing him up next year and then trying to figure out what they have, (Like Larnach, Miranda, Wallner, AK, etc...)

Absolutely Brooks Lee has potential to be a great player, but rankings involve a lot of different assumptions. High floor vs. high ceiling, how close the player is to contributing, etc. There have been holes in Brooks Lee's game. That's absolutely expected. For him to be at the MLB level this year would still be quite fast to the big leagues.

I'm going to bring Austin Martin back into this. He was ranked #2 overall for the 2020 draft by MLB, #1 overall by Keith Law, #1 overall by CBS, #3 overall by Fangraphs... you get the idea. After the draft and his first year of playing time, Martin was ranked #12 in all of MLB by Keith Law mid 2021, was consistently top 50 after 2021 (#22 by MLB) and still consistently top 100 (#52 by MLB) after 2022. Did Martin have the potential to be a superstar? For sure! Super elite hit tool. Athletic with plus speed, questionable arm for SS, but viewed as a potential CF fall back. The scouting reports were glowing and Martin destroyed AA level pitching right out of the gate with Toronto. In every way, shape or form, Austin Martin was viewed as good or better than Brooks Lee at the same age.

Prospects are just that, and almost all of them have some holes in their games which need to be identified and worked through. Even an eventual MLB Hall of Fame, god level talent like Joe Mauer needed 3 years in the minors. That chart includes top level high schoolers who had 2 years of experience above Lee and it shows:
1.5% of players reached MLB through age 20
5.9% of players reached MLB through age 21
15.6% of players reached MLB through age 22 <--- realistically, Brooks Lee, since he was 22 until last month...
31.1% of players reached MLB by age 23
50.2% of players reached MLB by age 24
67.0% of players reached MLB by age 25

[dxpavelka]

On 3/10/2024 at 10:51 AM, Rod Carews Birthday said:

First of all, Castro and Farmer are backup players.  They are neither assumed to be nor projected to be stars.  They are, however, experienced and have proven ability to cope with inconsistent playing time across multiple positions while still maintaining solid offense and defense.  That’s why they are valuable and currently a better fit for the team and actually, comparing Lee to them is a red herring, as they aren’t calling him up to sit on the bench.  That would be short sighted and shameful.   

Second of all, what is it about Brooks Lee’s performance so far in the minors that makes you think he is ready to be “a superstar”.  I like Brooks Lee.  I think he might be really good at some point.  I can’t see why he would have a giant breakout in the majors this year.  Let’s compare:  Eduard Julien had an OPS of .839 last year in the MAJORS.  His career OPS in the minors was .924, including .932 at AAA St. Paul.  Brooks Lee has a career OPS in the minors of .814 with an .808 OPS at AAA St. Paul, or more succinctly, lower in AAA than Julien had in the majors..  Lee has never sniffed a .900 OPS, while Julien’s lowest OPS at any minor league level was .891 over a half season at Cedar Rapids in his first taste of pro ball.  Lee will improve.  Give him time to do it so that he can be truly ready when he hits Target Field.  If he comes up, rakes, and becomes the star we all hope, then someone will either need to find a new position (maybe him) or be traded for starting pitching (also maybe him).  

If Lee is being kept on the farm due in any part to the presence of Castro & Farmer than they are all part of the same discussion.  If you REALLY believe the team is better served by having one or both of them on it you certainly have the right to have the opinion.  I don't.  And furthermore, I look forward to, at some future time mocking you for ever having had that opinion.

[dxpavelka]

On 3/10/2024 at 11:35 PM, jkcarew said:

So put him on the 40-man and break camp with him so he can take a bench role from Farmer??

Pretty sure he'd somehow manage to carve out 400 plus at bats.

[Trov]

18 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

MLB has him as the 18th rated prospect, the athletic has him at 31, and fan graphs has him at 42. doesn't that mean he has that potentia?. Like I said there currently isn't a spot for him, but getting some action this year should help the Twins figure out what they have, instead of bringing him up next year and then trying to figure out what they have, (Like Larnach, Miranda, Wallner, AK, etc...)

The knock on Lee, for people that are not high on him, is he seems more like a high floor guy and not high ceiling guy.  He will hit for overall average, but not a lot of power.  Personally, I am high on him, and hope he can be a good switch hitting on base guy with high number of doubles and around 15 to 20 HR a year.  That would be great.  Will he be MVP type, doubtful without increasing his power, but overall I think he will be good MLB player. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

If Lee is being kept on the farm due in any part to the presence of Castro & Farmer than they are all part of the same discussion.  If you REALLY believe the team is better served by having one or both of them on it you certainly have the right to have the opinion.  I don't.  And furthermore, I look forward to, at some future time mocking you for ever having had that opinion.

That’s the point.  At a future date, Lee will deserve a starting spot and will get it.  Hopefully he will do well and make us all happy.  No, the specific players of Castro and Farmer are not keeping Lee in the minors, but since that isn’t the role for him, he’s not taking their spots on the roster.  When he comes up, he is likely to play (almost) every day and not come off the bench in a number of positions.  

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

If Lee is being kept on the farm due in any part to the presence of Castro & Farmer than they are all part of the same discussion.  If you REALLY believe the team is better served by having one or both of them on it you certainly have the right to have the opinion.  I don't.  And furthermore, I look forward to, at some future time mocking you for ever having had that opinion.

Lee is being kept on the farm because he hasn't shown he shouldn't be. He's also being kept on the farm because it's what's best for his development. Platooning against lefties and pinch hitting here and there against them is just fine for Farmer, it's not how you get Lee to become a better player than Farmer. Playing 5 or 6 different positions while pinch running/hitting here and there is just fine for Castro, it's not how you get Lee to become a better player than Castro. 

The team is absolutely better served with those 2 guys in those roles than Lee in those roles. And Lee is absolutely better served playing everyday in AAA than filling either one of those roles. That's without even getting into the discussion over who the actual better players are today. We all hope Brooks Lee is the better player in the long run, but his .731 OPS in AAA isn't super convincing that he's better than Farmer and his .725 in the majors or Castro and his .750 in the majors. Pretty reasonable to question whether or not Brooks Lee is a better player than Farmer and Castro on March 12, 2024. Really not questionable at all as to who the better options are to fill the roles Castro and Farmer are pegged for.

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

That’s the point.  At a future date, Lee will deserve a starting spot and will get it.  Hopefully he will do well and make us all happy.  No, the specific players of Castro and Farmer are not keeping Lee in the minors, but since that isn’t the role for him, he’s not taking their spots on the roster.  When he comes up, he is likely to play (almost) every day and not come off the bench in a number of positions.  

The POINT is that Lee may well be ready to play everyday at the big league level as soon as early April.  And to be honest, the sooner the better.  And hopefully Walker Jenkins ends up no more than a year behind him.

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Lee is being kept on the farm because he hasn't shown he shouldn't be. He's also being kept on the farm because it's what's best for his development. Platooning against lefties and pinch hitting here and there against them is just fine for Farmer, it's not how you get Lee to become a better player than Farmer. Playing 5 or 6 different positions while pinch running/hitting here and there is just fine for Castro, it's not how you get Lee to become a better player than Castro. 

The team is absolutely better served with those 2 guys in those roles than Lee in those roles. And Lee is absolutely better served playing everyday in AAA than filling either one of those roles. That's without even getting into the discussion over who the actual better players are today. We all hope Brooks Lee is the better player in the long run, but his .731 OPS in AAA isn't super convincing that he's better than Farmer and his .725 in the majors or Castro and his .750 in the majors. Pretty reasonable to question whether or not Brooks Lee is a better player than Farmer and Castro on March 12, 2024. Really not questionable at all as to who the better options are to fill the roles Castro and Farmer are pegged for.

Actually it really is a question as to whether Lee is a better option than Castro and Farmer.  That's why the discussion persists.

[chpettit19]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Actually it really is a question as to whether Lee is a better option than Castro and Farmer.  That's why the discussion persists.

Do you have anything specific that Brooks Lee has done on a professional baseball field to suggest he's better than Castro and Farmer? Or anything he's done to show he's ready for an everyday role at the big league level? 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

11 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

The POINT is that Lee may well be ready to play everyday at the big league level as soon as early April.  And to be honest, the sooner the better.  And hopefully Walker Jenkins ends up no more than a year behind him.

What evidence can you cite that says that Brooks Lee is ready to come up and star in the major leagues?  He has a career OPS in the minors of .814 (.731 in AAA) — quite a lot lower than “dominating” and ignoring the fact that he hasn’t hit lefties at all yet.  When Byron Buxton was in the minors he was certainly highly touted.  He had a minor league OPS of .880, and when he came to the majors, guess what.  He couldn’t hit.  OPS isn’t a perfect stat, but it’s a pretty solid one and a pretty universally accepted one.  I recall that all of those trips back to the minor leagues were frustrating for both the fans and the player.   

So. . . .if he does come up to the majors, what’s his role.  There are only two possibilities.  Option #1 is that he comes up and replaces one of Castro or Farmer on the roster.  Both of these players can and have played multiple positions on the field and have maintained offensive productivity while doing so.  The potential rookie has played shortstop and third base only so far.  Barring injury, that’s not much of a role.  He probably gets less than 10 at bats a week and rides the bench.  That’s going to be a very hard way to get acclimated to the majors and waste valuable development time and service time.  I would personally rather not have the first year of his service time be devoted to coming off the bench occasionally to spell a veteran.  We have guys to do that and they do it well.  

Option #2 is that he comes up and displaces one of the current starters.  Shortstop?  Nope, that’s Carlos Correa’s spot.  Third Base? Nope, that’s Royce Lewis’ spot.  Second Base?  Well, he hasn’t played it and Eddie Julien has been one of our very best hitters for the past year, essentially taking the position away from Jorge Polanco.  He could DH, but that seems silly for a young player that appears to be able to play some defense somewhere.  

What is it about the current Twins lineup that makes you think it is desperately in need of help from Brooks Lee?  On paper it is both much stronger and certainly much healthier than it was last year at this time, and probably stronger than it was in the second half of last year when we were second only to the Houston Astros in offensive production.  At this point, bringing up Brooks Lee is a downgrade offensively, removes flexibility defensively, and has the potential to stunt his growth in ways that would come back to haunt the team and the player.  

We obviously disagree, so I won’t continue to try to convince you otherwise.  

[RpR]

"Is Brooks Lee Ready?"

The people he works for say no. Simple as that.

[dxpavelka]

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Do you have anything specific that Brooks Lee has done on a professional baseball field to suggest he's better than Castro and Farmer? Or anything he's done to show he's ready for an everyday role at the big league level? 

If he's not, and soon, somebody should be getting fired. 

 

[Squirrel]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

If he's not, and soon, somebody should be getting fired. 

 

He was drafted in 2022, not quite 2 yrs ango, and played in just 31 games that year. And in those 31 games was aggressively moved up finishing his very short season in Wichita. Last year was his first full season of professional ball, mostly in Wichita, but moving up to AAA toward the latter part of the season playing a total of 38 games in AAA. My guess is he may get some time in at the majors this year, but I’m not sure why or how you can proclaim him ready. He has been moved through the system aggressively, imo, but hasn’t shown the numbers in AAA that scream ‘Major Leagues NOW!’ I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes north with the team next year, but not this year. And next year that will also depend on how he does this year in AAA. I don’t think where he’s at currently, at age 23, and not quite being there yet, is even close to anyone needing to be fired.

[chpettit19]

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

If he's not, and soon, somebody should be getting fired. 

 

As @Squirrel said, Brooks Lee was just drafted 2 seasons ago. If not getting guys to be everyday players in the bigs within 2 calendar years of them being drafted means people need to get fired every team would be firing people every season. That's an unrealistic expectation.