Twins Top Prospect Battles: Who Has the Best Tools?

[Cody Christie]

With the 2024 season on the horizon, many national top prospect lists are starting to be revealed. So, which Twins prospects have the best tools?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter (Jenkins), Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints (Lee, Martin)

MLB Pipeline recently surveyed baseball executives to discover which prospects had the best tools in various categories. Twins names littered the rankings, but that fails to give a complete picture of the organization. Below is a list of some of the top categories and Twins prospects battling for the organization's top spot.

Best Hitter: Brooks Lee vs. Walker Jenkins
Minnesota’s top two prospects provide different offensive skill sets. Lee has been touted for his hitting ability since the Twins drafted him in 2022. He can spray the ball to all fields and takes a professional approach at the plate. Jenkins is one of the best prospects to come through the Twins organization in quite some time, and has a tremendously high ceiling. His professional track record is limited at this point, so that’s why Lee gets the nod. However, Jenkins could be in the running for baseball’s top prospect with a solid 2024 campaign.
Battle Winner: Lee

Best Pitching Prospect: Marco Raya vs. David Festa
There are different ways to evaluate the top two pitching prospects in the Twins organization. Raya was selected by the Twins in the 2020 MLB Draft out of high school in Texas, and the team has been cautious with his workload while also being aggressive with his promotions. He has a high ceiling, but the Twins haven’t allowed him to show he can handle a starter's workload. Festa pitched at Double and Triple A last season, with 119 strikeouts in 92 1/3 innings. Fans will probably see him pitch for the Twins next season, but his ceiling is limited to a mid-rotation starter. Raya wins the battle for now. 
Battle Winner: Raya

Best Defensive Prospect: Noah Miller vs. Noah Cardenas
Following the 2023 season, Miller was selected as the best defensive shortstop in the minor leagues and awarded a Gold Glove. Last season, he handled 446 chances, helped turn 54 double plays, and finished with 295 assists in 107 games for High-A Cedar Rapids, posting a .984 fielding percentage. Cardenas is tremendous behind the plate, with all the skills to make it to the big leagues as a catcher. He’s known for working well with pitching staffs and has the receiving skills and throwing arm to control the running game. Catcher might be the most important defensive position, and Cardenas is one of the best in the minor leagues. Miller wins the battle for now, but this is a tight race. It'll only matter if either can hit as they climb the ladder.
Battle Winner: Miller

Best Baseball IQ: Brooks Lee vs. Noah Miller
Lee could have been a first-round pick out of high school, but he told teams he wanted to play college ball for his father at Cal Poly. Lee has grown up around baseball, which made him an intriguing prospect when he fell to the Twins with the eighth overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. His baseball acumen has allowed him to stick at shortstop this far into his professional career, when many believed he’d be forced to another position. Miller is also smart on both sides of the ball, but his baseball IQ showcases itself on the defensive side. He’s smooth to the ball and makes plays that few others can make. Lee wins the battle because he has more experience and is closer to the big leagues.
Battle Winner: Lee

Most Underrated Prospect: Marco Raya vs. Simeon Woods Richardson vs. Austin Martin
Raya was one of the names mentioned in the MiLB piece, which shows how other organizations view him. If he can put it all together, he has the stuff to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. Woods Richardson is coming off a rough year at Triple A. Still, he was significantly younger than the competition at that level, and St. Paul has been a favorable hitting environment. He’s a prime bounce-back candidate in 2024, and can put himself back in the team’s long-term plans. Martin missed time with an elbow injury last season, but now the Twins might need him to take on a more regular role in 2024. He won’t show up on any top-100 lists, but Martin has the potential to be a future All-Star.
Battle Winner: Woods Richardson

Breakout Prospect: Walker Jenkins vs. Brooks Lee
Lee and Jenkins are on opposite ends of the prospect pipeline, but fans will watch each player closely in 2024. The Twins will have Lee begin the year at Triple A, but he could make his debut by midseason. Depending on when he debuts, Lee can perform well enough to be in the conversation for AL Rookie of the Year. There is no reason to rush Jenkins, but his performance might dictate an aggressive approach. It’s certainly possible for him to spend the first couple months at Low-A Fort Myers, move to High-A Cedar Rapids for most of the season, and end the year at Double-A Wichita for the playoffs. If things work out that way, he will be among baseball’s top five prospects.
Battle Winner: Jenkins

Do you agree with the battle winners? Who else should have made the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[roger]

Enjoyable read, Cody.  One comment and one observation.  
 

How can Lee and Jenkins be breakout candidates when they are ranked 1-2 on most prospect lists?  Have always been a Miller fan, but didn’t realize his D was so elite.

 

[Doctor Gast]

Loved the Noah Miller video that he not only has the skills to be a great SS but also the baseball smarts.

[Fatbat]

Great read!! I would have probably picked different players for breakout candidates.  In thinking Kala’i Rosario vs. Yasser Mercedes. 

[miracleb]

I would struggle with Simeon Woods Richardson to be anywhere near the most underrated category.  We have had high hopes and huge OVERrating on him the past couple of years.  Based on last year, he is closer to not being in baseball in two years ......verses being underrated.....

We want him to succeed even more..... because he was part of the Berrios trade......but it might be time to get a little more realistic regarding him.   :(

[mikelink45]

Woods Richardson hitting a wall in AAA reminds me of Balazovic.  Do we know enough about him to expect him to rebound better?  Right now I do not seem him winning the underrated debate - I have had the opinion that he was overrated. 

[jimbo92107]

David Festa intrigues me. His knuckler is a unique pitch for any arsenal. If it works for Festa, it could trigger a new trend. Can't wait to see a guy like that in the pros.

[jmlease1]

I don't think Raya is all that underrated, he's just been managed very carefully.

Walker Jenkins win a different category: most tools. Because dude seems to have them all so far.

I'm a little confused that in a discussion about tools they're not talking about categories like power, contact skills, throwing arm in the field, speed...these are things I think of as specific tools. The others are more about overall prospect profile to me.

[chpettit19]

38 minutes ago, jimbo92107 said:

David Festa intrigues me. His knuckler is a unique pitch for any arsenal. If it works for Festa, it could trigger a new trend. Can't wait to see a guy like that in the pros.

FYI, Festa doesn't throw a knuckler, that's Cory Lewis. Festa has the more traditional fastball, slider, curve, change repertoire. 

[TwinsDr2021]

"Martin has the potential to be a future All-Star."

Can't this be said about every minor league player? Martin will be 25 before the season starts and hasn't spent 1 day in the majors at this point it seems like a stretch to say future all star. (I hope he is, though)

IMO, the underrated Twins prospects are the prospects that are 21/22 that played in high A, AA last year and aren't in the Twins top 10-15 range.

[Trov]

Jenkins may be the most hyped prospect for Twins since Buck was drafted.  Lewis had some hype but not to Jenkins or Buck level.  If Jenkins can hit ground running I could see him move up to AA by season end.  Jenkins ended in low A and did better there than Rookie league. His eye at plate early on was good.  I know it is SSS, but when people saying he would have been number 1 pick in many other recent drafts that helps the hype train.

Lee has the looking of being a solid player but his ceiling is much lower, not saying he could not break out beyond what is expected, but he is thought of being just solid all around good hitter, but not great. 

[wabene]

Man Miller has a nice arm. All right on the money frozen ropes. The only one hopper was from very deep in the hole. 

[jimbo92107]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

FYI, Festa doesn't throw a knuckler, that's Cory Lewis. Festa has the more traditional fastball, slider, curve, change repertoire. 

That's why Festa's knuckler is so good. Nobody can see it!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Miller has exceptionally soft hands and just looks so smooth going from fielding a baseball to throwing it on a straight line to 1B.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

"Martin has the potential to be a future All-Star."

Can't this be said about every minor league player? Martin will be 25 before the season starts and hasn't spent 1 day in the majors at this point it seems like a stretch to say future all star. (I hope he is, though)

IMO, the underrated Twins prospects are the prospects that are 21/22 that played in high A, AA last year and aren't in the Twins top 10-15 range.

25 in first full year of AAA doesn’t seem to make Martin “old” - right? If he’s an All-Star at 31, I’ll take it for sure!!

[wabene]

[FlyingFinn]

Didn't realize Cardenas was such a good defensive catcher. He's moving up in my ratings as he's also got a decent bat.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

My breakout candidate is Noah Miller.  The defense is there, the bat is slowly, slowly coming around.  

Here is his slash line for August and Sept. 

.260/.360/.430

He has been a lot like Kepler (actually worse with the bat) where he has regularly struggled for average and doing any other significant damage.  He had 7 of his 9 home runs in the last 3 months and the average, obp,  slugging and ops were all up significantly.   I think he finally is starting to adjust to the pitching and what he needs to do to be successful.   

I expect him to slot into a utility role in a few years.   Let the defense play up and anything he does with the bat is gravy.  Like Kepler I think something clicked in the 2nd half.  

 

Other Breakout Candidates-

1. (8) Brandon Winokur -  I expect the bat to continue to rake and his athleticism and defense will continue to play up.  I am fully expecting him to be a top 5 prospect by the end of the year. 

2. (15) Tannner Hall -  an elite pitcher with low velocity but plus off speed pitches going into the Twins pitching lab adding velocity sounds like an extreme winner.  I am curious if he starts in A+ ball or they put all the rookies from last year into A ball.  

3.  One of the other rookie pitchers.  One will breakout and be an absolute stud just don't know which one.  

4 and 5.  Canterino and Priellip.  I am expecting both to be healthy and dealing this year.  

 

I am very optimistic on the minors, there is a lot of talent coming up through the system and the 2023 draft has the potential to be a game changer.   

[miracleb]

On 1/24/2024 at 6:50 AM, FlyingFinn said:

Didn't realize Cardenas was such a good defensive catcher. He's moving up in my ratings as he's also got a decent bat.

Agree!  Now the Twins will not do this.....but his defense is similar to Vasquez's defense and I would argue by the end of the season his hitting numbers would be comparable or better than Vasquez's in 2024.......for 10 million LESS!

(but it would hurt Cardenas' development....yada, yada, yada.....)