Make a Valiant Effort to Avoid Shortsightedness

[TwinsDr2021]

6 minutes ago, Eris said:

I think in order for the Twins to reasonably successful long term they need to be more like the Rays and less like the big market teams. The Twins have more than a third of the payroll in Correa and Buxton. Signing another player to a 20-25+ million long term contract means they lose payroll flexibility for years to come. Money that will potentially be needed to pay some of the rising stars. 

Until they start developing starter pitchers (Ober and Varland to a lesser extend), they are going to need to trade (Lopez, Ryan, Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Paddack)for them or sign them. You can't be successful without starting pitching.

[laloesch]

30 minutes ago, Eris said:

I think in order for the Twins to reasonably successful long term they need to be more like the Rays and less like the big market teams. The Twins have more than a third of the payroll in Correa and Buxton. Signing another player to a 20-25+ million long term contract means they lose payroll flexibility for years to come. Money that will potentially be needed to pay some of the rising stars. 

I was wishy washy about both signings due to the size of both contracts.  Both players when healthy are worth the money, but neither was completely healthy in 2023.  If they sign another player to a 20-25 million + a year contract long term will really start to impact payroll flexibility although i have my doubts they will do so given the tv contract issues.  

[chpettit19]

The sky is not falling, but things aren't unquestionably ok either. I really hope the 3 rookie stars from last year can maintain their production over full seasons, but the chances of that happening are tiny. I mean those were 3 all star level batting lines they put up. The league has now figured out where the holes in their games are and they're going to attack them hard. Maintaining 135+ OPS+ numbers over a full season is a massive ask. So the expectation should be that there's a likely significant regression to their overall numbers as a group. But there's solid enough hope that Correa and Buxton are at least a little healthier in 2024 and see an increase in their overall numbers as a pair to help balance out the regression from the rookies.

I think expecting Varland and Paddack to replace the performances of Gray and Maeda is a super longshot. Just pointing at win-loss records in games they started is missing the impact of their nearly 300 innings pitched. 288 innings of mostly really well pitched innings is a lot to replace. Now maybe Ryan stays healthy and throws more innings without having his typical 2nd half drop in production (he dropped in 2022 as well) and maybe Ober can add more innings without wearing down this year. That can help cover some of those 288 innings, but I don't know that there's a whole lot more improvement possible from those 2 so it's mostly just about them staying healthy and maintaining production for more of the year. I think the realistic view of the rotation as it stands today is that it's a step below last year's performance. Now that doesn't mean that bringing Sonny back would've solved that because he's not likely to reproduce that production, but it doesn't change the fact that the most likely outcome is that the current rotation options don't perform as well as the rotation did last year.

I know the unknown future tends to be a hopeful one because we like to dream on the possibilities of everyone hitting their ceilings and the team taking off. I'm excited to see what Lewis does coming off a healthy offseason. I can't wait to see Walker Jenkins in his first full season. I'm intrigued to see if Lee can put it all together and take AAA by storm to start the year. Curious about what Raya looks like in a true starter's role instead of 3 inning bursts. There's some fun guys on the farm, and some fun youngsters on the big league team now. But I think we oversell our crop some. We're not a top ranked system by any ranking I've seen. We're not matching the Orioles crop of prospects and young MLB talent. I like to imagine what the future could bring as well, but the Pohlads deserve every bit of criticism that comes their way this offseason. Windows aren't guaranteed to stay open. They aren't guaranteed to open at all. Lewis, Buxton, and AK never stay healthy. Correa's ankle really is a problem. None of the starters below Lopez take the needed step. Wallner's holes in his swing are exploited. Lee never quite figures it out. Jeffers regresses back to career norms. Kepler regresses back to 2021-first half of 2023 Kepler. Polanco's legs just won't hold up (or he's traded). Stewart can't repeat his 2023, age-31 breakout. Jax is up and down again. All very possible outcomes. And now the Twins aren't just walking away with the central in 2024, and their 2025 and beyond are in doubt as well. "Hey, we were good last year so we'll be good with mostly the same team this year" goes wrong all the time. 

Cutting payroll isn't just about not being able to sign $30 million deals, it's about not being able to sign $10 million deals either. This wasn't a super thrilling free agent class, but there were some very useful pieces that would've helped this team. A few have been named in other comments like Lourdes and Hoskins. Stroman types aren't thrilling names, and wouldn't raise the ceiling much for this squad, but adding legit MLB talent depth is also super important. They very likely still add a piece or 2 or 5 over the next month, but they've chosen to sit out a lot of this party, and trading guys just moves depth holes from 1 place to another. I love prospects. I go to a couple dozen Saints games a year now. I follow them on milb.tv. I follow them on here and all the national publications. They're the lifeblood of every organization. But they fail more than they succeed. People are talking about Lee as if he's some sure thing piece in 2024. He's not a sure thing to be a piece ever. I like him and I think he's going to do really well. But there's a real difference in relying on a 2nd year guy as a starter and prospects as depth and relying on a proven veteran and young guys behind him. Not signing someone for 30 mil isn't the only downside to this payroll reduction. Not signing any MLB depth is a real downside, too. But they have a few more weeks until pitchers and catchers report so there's certainly time to make some moves. I just hope there's still moves to make when they're ready to make them.

[LA Vikes Fan]

33 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO, as it currently stands the Twin look more like the 21, 22 Twins than the 23 teams. The 23 teams brought in veteran depth and had starting pitcher depth to the point that Ober wasn't considered good enough to be on the starting day roster. The 23 Twins starting pitcher depth was IMO the best rotation  (and depth) in my life time (Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Varland) and even with that they needed Keuchel for 6 starts and 10 games. Again as it stands now it is Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddack and Varland and then hope and prospects. The depth last year was Farmer, Taylor, Solano, Castro, Gordon and dare I say Gallo with Walllner and Julien. With that depth they were able to over come Larnach, AK, Miranda, Gordon, Polanco and Buxton getting hurt (Even Correa). This year the back ups and some starters are unknown quantities.

If all goes well the Twins are going to be fine, should easily win the Central and be able to make noise in the playoffs, but if a pitcher or two goes down and the prospects struggle a bit and/or Buxton, AK, Lewis and others get hurt again and some younger players regress like Larnach, Miranda and Gordon did last year we could be looking at a similar result to 21 and 22. Which IMO is why they need to spend something on a RH outfielder and bring in somebody to push Varland out of the starting rotation like they did with Ober. If they don't and things end up like 21 and 22 it could easily be pointed out that reduction of payroll was a major issue.

This. The roster actually looks pretty competitive, even playoff competitive, as long as no one gets hurt and only one or two have a bad year/regress. The issue at this point is a lack of depth to withstand injury and poor performance, particularly on the pitching side. There is plenty of time to get more depth. Quality depth players aren't the "big name FAs", they are the Donovan Solano type in the field and the Ryu, Clevinger, Lorenzen (even Odorizzi) types on the mound. Get one of those depth starting pitchers or, even better, trade from surplus like Polanco and get a young(ish) starter and we're good to start the season. 

I've also come around to the idea that signing a Rys Hoskins or similar guy is not the way to go. The division is still weak so we have time and leeway. We need to see what we have in Kirilloff and Miranda.  In the OF, don't sign Soler or Grichuk even if we trade Kepler (unlikely IMO). Instead, let's play Martin, Larnach, Kiersey and Prato. See what we have.  Let's see if we can build a young foundation around the diamond like Houston did after bottoming out. Let's not try to patch "holes" with short term vets until we know that they are holes. I'd love to see us ending the season with Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Varland, Paddack, Funderburk, Kirilloff, Miranda, and at least one of the OFs I mentioned as "established" quality MLB players. It doesn't have to be all of them; it can be 75%-80%. We can project at the trade deadline whether or not we are going to get there. If we do that, then we know where the holes and then we patch. 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, killertwinfan said:

There is still plenty of time for a trade.  But, If we roll with this lineup, or less should we trade Polanco and/or Farmer for prospects, I will not be renewing MLB extra innings. 

We should all enjoy the last few games that Kep and Polo play here. Who ever we get back with their departure will hopefully bring even more excitement. As of right now, we have a very talented young team around these guys that haven’t always had that.  We owe them gratitude for what they have done for this organization. 

[TwinsDr2021]

11 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

This. The roster actually looks pretty competitive, even playoff competitive, as long as no one gets hurt and only one or two have a bad year/regress. The issue at this point is a lack of depth to withstand injury and poor performance, particularly on the pitching side. There is plenty of time to get more depth. Quality depth players aren't the "big name FAs", they are the Donovan Solano type in the field and the Ryu, Clevinger, Lorenzen (even Odorizzi) types on the mound. Get one of those depth starting pitchers or, even better, trade from surplus like Polanco and get a young(ish) starter and we're good to start the season. 

I've also come around to the idea that signing a Rys Hoskins or similar guy is not the way to go. The division is still weak so we have time and leeway. We need to see what we have in Kirilloff and Miranda.  In the OF, don't sign Soler or Grichuk even if we trade Kepler (unlikely IMO). Instead, let's play Martin, Larnach, Kiersey and Prato. See what we have.  Let's see if we can build a young foundation around the diamond like Houston did after bottoming out. Let's not try to patch "holes" with short term vets until we know that they are holes. I'd love to see us ending the season with Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Varland, Paddack, Funderburk, Kirilloff, Miranda, and at least one of the OFs I mentioned as "established" quality MLB players. It doesn't have to be all of them; it can be 75%-80%. We can project at the trade deadline whether or not we are going to get there. If we do that, then we know where the holes and then we patch. 

Your first paragraph is pretty much exactly what I said. Your second paragraph sounds quite a bit like the off seasons before 21 and 22. (FYI, those seasons didn't go well)

The idea that all most all the the Twins starting 9 has question marks (and they do) and the plan is to back them up with older minor league players (I won't even call Kiersey, Prato, Helman prospects) is playing with fire.

 

[chpettit19]

I'll also remind people that Cleveland was a "young and talented" team going into 2023. They had a number of young players, including a bunch of rookies, carry them to the division title and a wild card sweep of the Rays in 2022. They lost to the Yankees 3 games to 2 in the division series. Their 23 year old 2B played elite defense and put up a 141 OPS+ over 146 games. They're the envy of just about every team and fan base in baseball when it comes to developing pitching. They were the ones most likely to walk away with the lowly central division in 2023. Now, just 1 year later, we're talking about them as an afterthought. "Young and talented" upcoming teams are no sure thing to continue to succeed. Choosing to not invest in your team because it's "young and talented" is not a great choice.

[tony&rodney]

The starting five and others: Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, & Paddack plus Festa, Woods Richardson, Raya, etc. will be fine. Any addition will be appreciated if it fills in above Ryan and/or the cost is negligible. We absolutely cannot predict anything with precision but believe Paddack is good for 120 innings and all of the others could go 180 innings. Stuff happens but right now the Twins have a top six starting rotation in the American League.

The bullpen will also be fine, although injuries are even more difficult to predict for relievers. The Twins are signing minor league free agents and sifting for some help.

I'm not sure why people are so nervous about the position players. None of Kirilloff, Miranda, Polanco, Lewis, or Buxton were healthy to start last season and all are expected to be at full strength to start this season. Correa and Kepler should be fully healed as well. This team has good depth right now. Jeffers and Vazquez were quite a duo last year and i expect Camargo and perhaps another to catch a dozen times this year. 

Those expecting every player to regress must also believe that none of Martin, Kiersey Jr., Prato, Helman, or others will offer much if they are neded from time to time. The future is unknown but Vegas, Fangraphs, and just about every other prognostication suggests that the Twins will be better this season than last. Last season I guessed +/- 5 wins from 83 with an AL Central title. This year I'm guessing +/- 87 victories with an AL Central crown. 

It is all guessing but the 2024 Twins look like a better team than the 2023 squad.

[stringer bell]

I don't know how it will take shape, but I do expect that the Twins will add another starting pitcher, but probably not one that has been talked about on these forums this off season. 

I also believe there is much room for optimism with the current cast of players. Not one key position player should be a regression candidate on the basis of their age, and only Caleb Thielbar among the pitchers. As noted above, their two highest paid players are a good bet to far exceed their production of 2023. Buxton turned 30 this off season and Correa turned 29 at the end of September. 

Injuries will happen. The Twins were well prepared for that in 2023 and I fear a little bit that they are counting on unproven players more this year. Regression is also probably among the players who broke through last year, but that is probably true of most players who had a good year last year. 

 

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Choosing to not invest in your team because it's "young and talented" is not a great choice.

This seems correct and I really wanted the Twins to add a FA SP. However, it looked really clear early in the offseason that this wasn't going to happen, so I can't worry about it. I don't want the Twins to weaken their lineup with a trade. In fact, I would add Rhys Hoskins for a year if there was money. But that won't happen. 

Hey, maybe the Twins sign Snell.

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, Beast said:

Dude, they lost the Cy Young runner up, and every player on the top 5 of your WAR list is a hard regression candidate.  Michael Taylor was massively instrumental in the regular season “success.”  He’s gone.

You think we’re fine because we have Matt Wallner and Alex K, who couldn’t hit a beachball when it mattered in the playoffs? And you think Carlos Correa had little to do with teams success?  And you think the article operated on a flawed premise?

Griffin Jax had some good moments, especially in the playoffs, but there was about a month of the season where he was disaster and blew a bunch of games.  Joe Ryan was absolutely awful for 2 months, and wasn’t trusted for more than one inning in the playoffs.  Kody Funderburk?  That’s who we’re going to tout as a championship foundation piece?

Whatever helps fans sleep at night, I guess.  Gotta rationalize it somehow. If you can’t see at this point that Twins ownership is “cheap,” I don’t know what to tell you.  The Blue Jays just found a way to be competitive in the Ohtani sweepstakes - and here we are comparing ourselves to the Rays and As, and lamenting that we won’t even spend $10M on a backup OF.

This team is much more likely to regress and miss the playoffs altogether than take any kind of step forward.  The likelihood of those two scenarios isn’t even close.  Forget about winning a playoff series or anything beyond.  Zero chance.

The Pohlads deserve for that stadium to have nothing but tumbleweeds blowing around.  Any other business behaves this way and people are up in arms.  Price gouging $15 beers while refusing to invest in a quality product….it’s shameful that people not only put up with it, but openly support and in some cases praise them for it.  It’s Stockholm syndrome.

I dont know anyone lamenting not spending $10 mil on a backup outfielder.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The starting five and others: Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, & Paddack plus Festa, Woods Richardson, Raya, etc. will be fine

IMO, that is banking on quite a bit of hope, I agree Lopez, Ryan and Ober will be fine. If Paddack does what Maeda does that would be great after pitching 27 innings the last two years and only doing that once back in 2019 , saying SWR after a 4.91 ERA last year in AAA, Varland with a 4.63 ERA last and Festa pitching 92.33 innings last year mostly in AA(4.39 ERA) is very hopeful. Saying Raya can step in after pitching 65 and 63 innings the last two years as a gloried relief pitcher is asking for a miracle. (I do think he has opportunity for a great future, just not next year)

I don't see it as much different than 21 when Berrios (Lopez), Pineda (Ryan), Maeda (Ober), Ober (Paddack), Dobnak (Varland), Happ, Jax, Winder (SWR) and Thorpe (Festa) would be fine.

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm not sure why people are so nervous about the position players. None of Kirilloff, Miranda, Polanco, Lewis, or Buxton were healthy to start last season

Well all hope they will be who we hope they will be, but AK, Lewis and Buxton have never been healthy and Polanco hasn't been the last two years, Miranda was amazing bad last year. Being prudent and planning for the worst is a good strategy, wheras hope and prayer isn't. If Lopez, Ryan or Ober get hurt and/or Buxton, Lewis, AK, or Correa get hurt and a couple of our studs (Julien, Wallner, Jeffers, Lewis) regress even a little bit and the back up plan is a bunch of mid 20 not so highly rated prospects is the solution, things could go bad in a hurry, sure Martin, Miranda, Larnach or others could really step up, but statistically speaking which is more likely to happen? and that is what you have to plan for. Now I don't think all the bad things will happen but I want this FO prepared (Like last year) for it to happen. What is worse this go bad and young guys are called upon and they aren't great and the Twins miss the playoffs or they get some veteran  the Twins do great and we don't see Larnach, Miranda, Martin and others and a repeat of 23 happens? I will take the second option every time. With that said I think the infield depth is taken care of and maybe/probably the bullpen as well) but I would like so see another starter brought in (doesn't have to be a super stud but it has to be better than Happ and Shoemaker)and a right handed 4th outfielder. IMO that puts them on the same level as last year if injuries or regression happens.

[Cris E]

We haven't added the Solano (2/21/23) and Taylor (1/23/23) and Castro (12/20/22) and Gallo (12/16/22) vet augmentation to the roster for 2024 yet, and that's an important part of solidifying things to roll into the regular season. These guys aren't necessarily intended to play a lot of innings, but they really help keep the lights on and the momentum moving downhill when starters inevitably get hurt. We're talking about CF, the RH hitting corner guy and maybe an SP and another bullpen arm or two, but to date they've really only picked through the relief rag bin (Jensen, Staumont, Alexy.)

In the past these guys were mostly added late in the winter, and that seems to be a few weeks behind schedule this year because of a slow market in general and the unsettled budget problem in MIN particularly. but there's plenty of time to make a trade: MAT came to MIN on Jan 23 last year, Pablo Lopez on Jan 20 and Correa on Jan 11 so we're still well within that time frame.

It's way too early to complain or get too comfortable with the roster as it stands because we've never been ready to go a month before spring training. It's not how things have ever worked, so let it play out a bit.

 

[Linus]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The sky is not falling, but things aren't unquestionably ok either. I really hope the 3 rookie stars from last year can maintain their production over full seasons, but the chances of that happening are tiny. I mean those were 3 all star level batting lines they put up. The league has now figured out where the holes in their games are and they're going to attack them hard. Maintaining 135+ OPS+ numbers over a full season is a massive ask. So the expectation should be that there's a likely significant regression to their overall numbers as a group. But there's solid enough hope that Correa and Buxton are at least a little healthier in 2024 and see an increase in their overall numbers as a pair to help balance out the regression from the rookies.

I think expecting Varland and Paddack to replace the performances of Gray and Maeda is a super longshot. Just pointing at win-loss records in games they started is missing the impact of their nearly 300 innings pitched. 288 innings of mostly really well pitched innings is a lot to replace. Now maybe Ryan stays healthy and throws more innings without having his typical 2nd half drop in production (he dropped in 2022 as well) and maybe Ober can add more innings without wearing down this year. That can help cover some of those 288 innings, but I don't know that there's a whole lot more improvement possible from those 2 so it's mostly just about them staying healthy and maintaining production for more of the year. I think the realistic view of the rotation as it stands today is that it's a step below last year's performance. Now that doesn't mean that bringing Sonny back would've solved that because he's not likely to reproduce that production, but it doesn't change the fact that the most likely outcome is that the current rotation options don't perform as well as the rotation did last year.

I know the unknown future tends to be a hopeful one because we like to dream on the possibilities of everyone hitting their ceilings and the team taking off. I'm excited to see what Lewis does coming off a healthy offseason. I can't wait to see Walker Jenkins in his first full season. I'm intrigued to see if Lee can put it all together and take AAA by storm to start the year. Curious about what Raya looks like in a true starter's role instead of 3 inning bursts. There's some fun guys on the farm, and some fun youngsters on the big league team now. But I think we oversell our crop some. We're not a top ranked system by any ranking I've seen. We're not matching the Orioles crop of prospects and young MLB talent. I like to imagine what the future could bring as well, but the Pohlads deserve every bit of criticism that comes their way this offseason. Windows aren't guaranteed to stay open. They aren't guaranteed to open at all. Lewis, Buxton, and AK never stay healthy. Correa's ankle really is a problem. None of the starters below Lopez take the needed step. Wallner's holes in his swing are exploited. Lee never quite figures it out. Jeffers regresses back to career norms. Kepler regresses back to 2021-first half of 2023 Kepler. Polanco's legs just won't hold up (or he's traded). Stewart can't repeat his 2023, age-31 breakout. Jax is up and down again. All very possible outcomes. And now the Twins aren't just walking away with the central in 2024, and their 2025 and beyond are in doubt as well. "Hey, we were good last year so we'll be good with mostly the same team this year" goes wrong all the time. 

Cutting payroll isn't just about not being able to sign $30 million deals, it's about not being able to sign $10 million deals either. This wasn't a super thrilling free agent class, but there were some very useful pieces that would've helped this team. A few have been named in other comments like Lourdes and Hoskins. Stroman types aren't thrilling names, and wouldn't raise the ceiling much for this squad, but adding legit MLB talent depth is also super important. They very likely still add a piece or 2 or 5 over the next month, but they've chosen to sit out a lot of this party, and trading guys just moves depth holes from 1 place to another. I love prospects. I go to a couple dozen Saints games a year now. I follow them on milb.tv. I follow them on here and all the national publications. They're the lifeblood of every organization. But they fail more than they succeed. People are talking about Lee as if he's some sure thing piece in 2024. He's not a sure thing to be a piece ever. I like him and I think he's going to do really well. But there's a real difference in relying on a 2nd year guy as a starter and prospects as depth and relying on a proven veteran and young guys behind him. Not signing someone for 30 mil isn't the only downside to this payroll reduction. Not signing any MLB depth is a real downside, too. But they have a few more weeks until pitchers and catchers report so there's certainly time to make some moves. I just hope there's still moves to make when they're ready to make them.

The love button is not sufficient for how good this post is. Yea the Twins luckily have some cheap talent no way should the Pohlads get a pass regarding the payroll. I get it-they own the team so they get to decide but I’m always amazed by the number of posters who are concerned about spending the Pohlads money wisely. Things can go well in 2024 but as is pointed out above it’s very easy to paint a realistic picture where things regress pretty substantially. Not investing in the team makes that probability grow. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'll also remind people that Cleveland was a "young and talented" team going into 2023. They had a number of young players, including a bunch of rookies, carry them to the division title and a wild card sweep of the Rays in 2022. They lost to the Yankees 3 games to 2 in the division series. Their 23 year old 2B played elite defense and put up a 141 OPS+ over 146 games. They're the envy of just about every team and fan base in baseball when it comes to developing pitching. They were the ones most likely to walk away with the lowly central division in 2023. Now, just 1 year later, we're talking about them as an afterthought. "Young and talented" upcoming teams are no sure thing to continue to succeed. Choosing to not invest in your team because it's "young and talented" is not a great choice.

I don't completely disagree with your statement about not investing not being a great choice.  However, one of the benefits (and risks) of a young and talented team is that they will continue to improve.  Often those guys who are young and unproven wind up being better than the guys you lost.  It's definitely not a sure thing, but it is also not an unmitigated disaster.  There will be some regression, but there is an equal chance that the growth will make up for it.  That didn't work out for Cleveland last year, but it surely did back in the 1986 offseason for the hometown nine.  I'm not saying that's where this group is headed (yet) but I have learned to never say never. 

In my former line of work, people used to panic every year about how we would replace so and so, the all-state player, the section leader, the drum major.  Magically, there was always someone there to take their place and much more frequently than not, be a strong contributor -- until they graduated and we got to panic (needlessly) all over again.  In a good program, and arguably, the Twins have a very good feeder program on the farm, there are individuals who can and will step up.  That's why you develop them in the first place, and why people are often reluctant to trade them.  Sometimes you just need to take a couple of deep breaths and move on. 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO, that is banking on quite a bit of hope,

That is all any fan ever has. How many World Series have the Dodgers won in the last 25 years? How about those Mets? Has Kansas City ever had a good team? Every fan hopes that this will be the year.

The Vikings have had its citizens build them two football stadiums and the place is packed, I hear (have never set foot in the new stadium). The fans have hope, quite a bit of it.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I don't completely disagree with your statement about not investing not being a great choice.  However, one of the benefits (and risks) of a young and talented team is that they will continue to improve.  Often those guys who are young and unproven wind up being better than the guys you lost.  It's definitely not a sure thing, but it is also not an unmitigated disaster.  There will be some regression, but there is an equal chance that the growth will make up for it.  That didn't work out for Cleveland last year, but it surely did back in the 1986 offseason for the hometown nine.  I'm not saying that's where this group is headed (yet) but I have learned to never say never. 

In my former line of work, people used to panic every year about how we would replace so and so, the all-state player, the section leader, the drum major.  Magically, there was always someone there to take their place and much more frequently than not, be a strong contributor -- until they graduated and we got to panic (needlessly) all over again.  In a good program, and arguably, the Twins have a very good feeder program on the farm, there are individuals who can and will step up.  That's why you develop them in the first place, and why people are often reluctant to trade them.  Sometimes you just need to take a couple of deep breaths and move on. 

But we need to go buy Joey Gallo again and hope he isn’t Joey Gallo again. …. and the Pohlads suck cause they are cheap. Snarky panic rant over🤣

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I don't completely disagree with your statement about not investing not being a great choice.  However, one of the benefits (and risks) of a young and talented team is that they will continue to improve.  Often those guys who are young and unproven wind up being better than the guys you lost.  It's definitely not a sure thing, but it is also not an unmitigated disaster.  There will be some regression, but there is an equal chance that the growth will make up for it.  That didn't work out for Cleveland last year, but it surely did back in the 1986 offseason for the hometown nine.  I'm not saying that's where this group is headed (yet) but I have learned to never say never. 

In my former line of work, people used to panic every year about how we would replace so and so, the all-state player, the section leader, the drum major.  Magically, there was always someone there to take their place and much more frequently than not, be a strong contributor -- until they graduated and we got to panic (needlessly) all over again.  In a good program, and arguably, the Twins have a very good feeder program on the farm, there are individuals who can and will step up.  That's why you develop them in the first place, and why people are often reluctant to trade them.  Sometimes you just need to take a couple of deep breaths and move on. 

Yes, often times they get better. But even more often they get worse. Prospects fail far more than they succeed. Even the top ones. I'm not saying never, and certainly not suggesting it's an unmitigated disaster. I have no problem with folks being excited about the youth and hoping for the best. But that's not a cold, hard, honest look at the realities of young baseball players. There is a very real chance this team takes a step back in 2024. Not predicting it. And I'm actually pretty excited to see the young guys like everyone else. But the honest reality is that there's very real concerns about how things play out in 2024. That's just the nature of the beast.

[Fatbat]

5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO, that is banking on quite a bit of hope, I agree Lopez, Ryan and Ober will be fine. If Paddack does what Maeda does that would be great after pitching 27 innings the last two years and only doing that once back in 2019 , saying SWR after a 4.91 ERA last year in AAA, Varland with a 4.63 ERA last and Festa pitching 92.33 innings last year mostly in AA(4.39 ERA) is very hopeful. Saying Raya can step in after pitching 65 and 63 innings the last two years as a gloried relief pitcher is asking for a miracle. (I do think he has opportunity for a great future, just not next year)

I don't see it as much different than 21 when Berrios (Lopez), Pineda (Ryan), Maeda (Ober), Ober (Paddack), Dobnak (Varland), Happ, Jax, Winder (SWR) and Thorpe (Festa) would be fine.

Well all hope they will be who we hope they will be, but AK, Lewis and Buxton have never been healthy and Polanco hasn't been the last two years, Miranda was amazing bad last year. Being prudent and planning for the worst is a good strategy, wheras hope and prayer isn't. If Lopez, Ryan or Ober get hurt and/or Buxton, Lewis, AK, or Correa get hurt and a couple of our studs (Julien, Wallner, Jeffers, Lewis) regress even a little bit and the back up plan is a bunch of mid 20 not so highly rated prospects is the solution, things could go bad in a hurry, sure Martin, Miranda, Larnach or others could really step up, but statistically speaking which is more likely to happen? and that is what you have to plan for. Now I don't think all the bad things will happen but I want this FO prepared (Like last year) for it to happen. What is worse this go bad and young guys are called upon and they aren't great and the Twins miss the playoffs or they get some veteran  the Twins do great and we don't see Larnach, Miranda, Martin and others and a repeat of 23 happens? I will take the second option every time. With that said I think the infield depth is taken care of and maybe/probably the bullpen as well) but I would like so see another starter brought in (doesn't have to be a super stud but it has to be better than Happ and Shoemaker)and a right handed 4th outfielder. IMO that puts them on the same level as last year if injuries or regression happens.

So last year we didn’t have Buxton as a right handed bat in the OF all year long but this year he is going to be out there. So thats taken care of.  Unless you want a 30 something year old RH  guy that is on the down slope.  I would take my chances with Buxton, Castro and about 3 guys in the minors. Chances are best that those 5 guys can hold down CF better than last year. 
I agree that we should find another front line starter but we have until the trade deadline in July so lets just exercise some patience on that one. 
The infield doesn’t need anyone from outside the organization. We have depth. 
The bullpen is the bullpen. Guys will come and go like they always do. No reason to discuss that either until the FO actually makes a deal, then we can pick it apart or congratulate them. It will probably bring some high fives and equal amounts of hand wringing.  

Compared to last year, this team as it is, is already better because of health and a successful season to build off of.  Not many names have changed but thats good because the guys that brought winning baseball after the allstar break are almost all here and all are healthy.  
The best teams always have 1-3 impact rookies. We have that also. actually about 7 or so and we only might need 1 or 2 of them. 
 

 

[Major League Ready]

Our reality (Minnesota Twins fans) and teams with similar revenue is that success is absolutely dependent upon the acquisition and development of young players.  That means drafting or trading for prospects.  Obviously, the more cheap players they produce the more they can spend on free agents but that well is limited when you generate 200-300M less than the top teams.  There is no more money.  How do you invest money you don't have?  We have already invested in the form of Correa, Lopez, and Buxton.  Our excess is spent.  You can also do some trading of prospects if you produce enough to have an excess but trading six year assets for two year assets is a losing strategy unless you are fortunate enough to only trade away prospects that fail.  

Pick any team from the last 20 years with 90 wins outside the top dozen in revenue.  80-90% of their top players by WAR were drafted or acquired as prospects.  Why should we focus on practices that have not yielded results?  BTW ... This includes players acquired in trade before they became established players.   Fans generally want it immediately, so they don't want to wait for prospects and assume established players are the answer.  They fail too.  I can quite clearly recall posters here absolutely going off on the FO because they did not understand that Madison Bumgarner was a no brainer and they should have offered him whatever it took.   If the 2022 Mets and Padres don't cure the assumption that established players often fail, I don't know what will.   

I would love to have an extra couple hundred million in revenue so that our team could buy players an absorb the frequent failure associated with free agents.  However, we don't have that luxury.  Developing players is a prerequisite to winning for the Minnesota Twins and teams of similar revenue.  I am far more worried about the execution of viable practices than what could be had with another $30M in payroll.  For example, had they drafted Carroll instead of Cavaco that one decision would very likely made more difference than spending $30M on a free agent, especially during the back half of the contract.  I also would like to have CES right now and SGL looked good in his first appearances.

[RpR]

28 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Our reality (Minnesota Twins fans) and teams with similar revenue is that success is absolutely dependent upon the acquisition and development of young players.  That means drafting or trading for prospects.

Without Taylor, Farmer, Gray, Maeda, Castro, Solano, Vazquez all  varying aged veterans, the Twins would have NOT gone as far as they did.

2019: Cruz, C.J. Cron, Schoop, Garver, Castro, Gonzalez the Twins would have been the same 2018 also rans.

The Prospects/rookies are not all that you/some here claim them to be.

Absolute Rookies are a crap-shoot with a less than 50 percent chance of being equal, much less better, to the persons they replace.

[Fatbat]

4 minutes ago, RpR said:

Without Taylor, Farmer, Gray, Maeda, Castro, Solano, Vazquez all  varying aged veterans, the Twins would have NOT gone as far as they did.

2019: Cruz, C.J. Cron, Schoop, Garver, Castro, Gonzalez the Twins would have been the same 2018 also rans.

The Prospects/rookies are not all that you/some here claim them to be.

Absolute Rookies are a crap-shoot with a less than 50 percent chance of being equal, much less better, to the persons they replace.

But we are replacing Taylor with Buxton. Gray needs to be replaced by 8/1. Farmer, Castro and Vasquez are still here. Maeda is replaced by Paddack. Donnie barrels can be replaced from within by about 7 different players. Keep throwing bodies at the wall until someone replaces Donnie…. It wont be hard to do. 
Our farm system has plenty of guys to fill a hole or two.  
I haven’t even mentioned all the other guys coming off significant injuries that will likely have positive progression which will offset any regression.  This is not the year that the FO is going to waste $10+M on FA failures. 

[KirbyDome89]

13 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Your opinion about ownership & spending may be very accurate…….Jax “blew a bunch of games” & 6 guys are going to regress & a career journeyman that’s a great defender is still unsigned, was & would be a key going forward?? Did the Blue Jays lose the money they were going to pay Ohtani - haven’t seen any bold moves from them? Resigned Kiermaier.

Twins have a decent Club & with more games under their belt this year I think the younger guys thrive and add 50-75% to each WAR total. High paid Vets can’t be as bad in ‘24.

They were 14-5 in ‘23 against Phillies - Diamondbacks - Astros - Rangers……the last 4 teams standing in ‘23. Can rationalize how or why they were “lucky” to have done this but if that’s the case one needs to scrutinize the 162 games every other team played to justify their wins.

The rotation lost Maeda - Gray & combined, they were 14-16……..real outcomes are what matters not just stats. They were 15-19 in Gray’s starts. He had an OK playoff start v. Toronto & had to pick a guy off to get out of a major jam - threw 5 innings. Stunk it up v. Astros in the following series. Am not hating on Gray - lack of run support in regular season was a problem - but his ERA didn’t get the team the results that would be expected in his starts.

Is it ridiculous to think Varland & Paddack go a combined 17-15 in ‘24 or similar?

I think management/ownership should get the Payroll total to $140M…….once TV is sorted, $160M in ‘25…………..at $140M, that’s a 10% reduction - that’s plenty when needing to be frugal. With this number & a Polanco trade, they’d have $30M plus to spend in ‘24…………Montgomery for $26M would be fantastic (all sorts of options)…….they can spend back to $160M in ‘25 & they’ll be free of Farmer & Kepler’s salary by then ($17M). I think things aren’t so bad - I agree, they need to act because “everything will work out approach” is burying their heads!

Beers are expensive in Pittsburgh - Cincinnati - D.C. - Detroit as well, Pohlad’s don’t have that cornered!

50-75% bump in WAR for all of them!? That's insanely optimistic. I think there's a better chance somebody like Wallner is in AAA rather than posting 3.5ish WAR with the Twins. 

There are a bunch of permutations where the Twins played poorly against subpar teams too. Cherry picking 20 games scattered across 6 months tells us nothing. They won 87 games in one of the worst divisions imaginable. 

It's not ridiculous to think Varland and Paddack go 17-15 next year. It is ridiculous to think Sonny Gray's W/L record is more important than his actual performance/contribution. The dude finished 2nd in AL CYA voting. I mean c'mon....

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I believe they will be fine. I liked both Gray and Maeda but there was never going to be any assurance that they would repeat their performances, although they easily could. I'm ready to see what Ober, Varland, Paddack, Festa, and others can do from the mound. More to the point, the Twins were not going to sign Gray and/or Maeda or any FA SP. Why worry about that which is beyond your control?

I'm curious, if not excited, about the young pitchers the Twins have too. Even untested arms like Prielipp and Soto still hold some excitement, But man, I would sleep a lot better if we got another effective veteran arm in the rotation for this coming season. 

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

50-75% bump in WAR for all of them!? That's insanely optimistic. I think there's a better chance somebody like Wallner is in AAA rather than posting 3.5ish WAR with the Twins. 

Lewis, Wallner, and Kirilloff produced a total of 5.1 WAR.  They only played 222 games combined.  I don't think you are accounting for the cumulative nature of WAR.  With any luck they are going to play 400+ games between them.  If that happens, 7.5-10 WAR is not "insanely optimistic"  Lewis is quite capable of putting up 5 WAR himself. 

Buxton and Correa only produced 1.8 WAR combined.  Those two playing just near what was expected when they were signed  would make this a different team.  

[Scott51104]

"I don't completely disagree with your statement about not investing not being a great choice."

This gives me something to think about while shoveling.

[Fatbat]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Lewis, Wallner, and Kirilloff produced a total of 5.1 WAR.  They only played 222 games combined.  I don't think you are accounting for the cumulative nature of WAR.  With any luck they are going to play 400+ games between them.  If that happens, 7.5-10 WAR is not "insanely optimistic"  Lewis is quite capable of putting up 5 WAR himself. 

Buxton and Correa only produced 1.8 WAR combined.  Those two playing just near what was expected when they were signed  would make this a different team.  

I probably a way overly optimistic guy when it comes to our farm system but recent history suggests that your statements will be close to the truth as long as guys stay healthy.  The pessimistic say that prospects fail more than they succeed. Ok fine, I will agree, but lets lump the Cavaco’s and Sabatos into the failure (so far bin) and lets put the Erods, Lees and Jenkins into the (successful so far bin). We know what bin full of guys will go to MLB eventually.  Whats not going to happen is that that bin full of guys will fail more often than not. Sure, a percentage of them will fail and a percentage will be bouncing back and forth but there is also some that will be allstars. Every decade we will get someone HOF.  Im just saying we are overdue for someone HOF that came thru our farm system so the odds are in our favor.  For ‘24, we do have a great mix of vets and young studs on the 26 man. Even if everyone is just solidly average, we win 87 games. Again. There is plenty of things that point toward 92-94 wins. A lack of health which leads to poor performance is about the only downside that is a glaring possibility.  We aren’t depending on any AAA types unless its an injury plagued team. 

The industry smart guy’s aren’t real high on our farm system but they sure like Julien. Where was he on the top 100 prospect list a year ago. Thats right, he wasn’t on it. ooops. Erod is somewhere around 50, He was recently interviewed and says his goal is to be in MLB this summer as long as  his health is good.  Sounds like he knows what he needs to do to get to the show.  He sounds very motivated. I’m not going to bet against him.  Lee said much the same thing when he was interviewed a couple month ago. He even praised Lewis for his help in pitch recognition. Don’t sleep on Lee, he is coming. 

[KirbyDome89]

8 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Lewis, Wallner, and Kirilloff produced a total of 5.1 WAR.  They only played 222 games combined.  I don't think you are accounting for the cumulative nature of WAR.  With any luck they are going to play 400+ games between them.  If that happens, 7.5-10 WAR is not "insanely optimistic"  Lewis is quite capable of putting up 5 WAR himself. 

Buxton and Correa only produced 1.8 WAR combined.  Those two playing just near what was expected when they were signed  would make this a different team.  

You need to available and performing to accumulate that WAR. Lewis and Kirilloff haven't been healthy for each of the last 3 seasons. Is that just "bad luck?" Idk. Wallner was literally unplayable in the postseason. We can bemoan the SSS but his offensive issues were on full display. All is takes is one sophomore slump (looking at you Jose Miranda,) or one lengthy IL stint before you're trying to squeeze 4-5 WAR out of the remaining players to hit that mark, so yeah, I think it's an incredibly optimistic number. 

[Fatbat]

24 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You need to available and performing to accumulate that WAR. Lewis and Kirilloff haven't been healthy for each of the last 3 seasons. Is that just "bad luck?" Idk. Wallner was literally unplayable in the postseason. We can bemoan the SSS but his offensive issues were on full display. All is takes is one sophomore slump (looking at you Jose Miranda,) or one lengthy IL stint before you're trying to squeeze 4-5 WAR out of the remaining players to hit that mark, so yeah, I think it's an incredibly optimistic number. 

Lewis’s ACLs were both bad luck! AK had his arm bone fixed and its a non issue. His shoulder is slso fixed so there is no reason to pencil them into further injury talk. 
Taylor was a nice fill in for buck. Buck is back and while healthy which he is, should be an upgrade to MAT. A healthy Buxton could be allstar material. If he fails completely, we have depth. Not allstar depth but we can match MAT ‘23. 
lets say 2 guys slump ala Gordon/Miranda /Gallo’23. So what. 2 more guys will step up.

The organization is deep at every position but pitching. There are enough rookie possibilities that we  can have the customary 2-3 guys take the next step into MLB. It happens every year.  We don’t know who will but there are 5-8 guys that are close. They wont all fail. They wont all be 140 ops+ or 3.00era 1.1Whip but we will get good rookie production. We always do.  

[RpR]

44 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

The organization is deep at every position but pitching. There are enough rookie possibilities that we  can have the customary 2-3 guys take the next step into MLB. It happens every year.  We don’t know who will but there are 5-8 guys that are close. They wont all fail. They wont all be 140 ops+ or 3.00era 1.1Whip but we will get good rookie production. We always do.  

Maybe we can do a repeat of 2021: Blankenthorn, Celestino, Refsnyder, Cave, Rooker, there is always some one just as good in AAA. 😬