Other site's news / opinions about the Twins

[ziggy]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

That was a fun read. And boy, I bet that took a looooong time to research.

The logo was a lighter color in 2020 because it had covid.

[PseudoSABR]

 

[DocBauer]

On 2/8/2024 at 10:30 AM, chpettit19 said:

I think this is a pretty decent projection for the central. I think the Twins are in the same win total area as last year and one of Cleveland or Detroit will "surprise" by being above .500 as well and give the Twins a run for their money. The other will be around .500 and be a pain for most of the season. KC will get to 70+ wins and will play a big role in the division based on how competitive they are with each contender. And Chicago will continue to be a dumpster fire despite carrying maybe the best player in the division.

A lot of young talent in this division. Will be fun to see who's steps up and can take charge of the division the next few years.

Don't disagree with your basic premise on the standings here at all. And I also like Cleveland better than the Tigers at this point.

And I admit, unabashedly, that I tend to be an optimist. But except for 1 spot...that missing equivalent or close to replacement for Gray...I really like the way the Twins are currently set up. I like them even better if they...as I still believe they will...grab one more RH OF bat. It's crunch time for a number of guys still sitting there and needing a home. Taylor brings defense and speed with some pop in the role he was SUPPOSED to play last year. Someone like Pham or Duvall brings more power, less defense. Nobody left of this nature moves the needle much, but they help on the margins against LHSP. Might only mean a couple extra wins, but those wins could be important.

I like the depth they've built in the pen, and there's a couple guys there that could pay big dividends.

I like our offense better than the one that began 2023, and I like it better than Cleveland. A healthy Correa and even a half season of healthy Buxton is an upgrade as well. And could the offense possibly be as maddening inconsistent as it was the first half of 2023?

I'm not certain about Cleveland's rotation depth, but I give them the edge in the first 3 spots. Not so sure that Paddack, Varland, ANYTHING of quality from Disco might not exceed the Guardians. 

If the pen is actually better, and I think it is, and there are some arms that might help later in the season, that helps mitigate the loss of Gray on the balance sheet. If the offense is in the top third...I think they might be better than that...the runs will come. If Ryan is the Ryan, or close to, that he was through part of July before his injury, Ober repeats and doesn't even improve, Paddack can give us 120 solid IP, and we make the 5th spot work, I see 88 wins, maybe hitting 90. 92 isn't impossible.

"But Doc, that's IF's for the pen, lineup, and rotation"! Yep. But EVERYONE is just about ready to begin ST. Doesn't EVERYONE have IF's everywhere at this point? 😀

[jkcarew]

On 2/7/2024 at 11:08 AM, Mike Sixel said:

They project the Twins as average, but more likely than not to win the division

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/six-takeaways-from-our-2024-playoff-odds-release/

Regarding the ALC…the more things change…the more they stay the same.

[chpettit19]

7 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Don't disagree with your basic premise on the standings here at all. And I also like Cleveland better than the Tigers at this point.

And I admit, unabashedly, that I tend to be an optimist. But except for 1 spot...that missing equivalent or close to replacement for Gray...I really like the way the Twins are currently set up. I like them even better if they...as I still believe they will...grab one more RH OF bat. It's crunch time for a number of guys still sitting there and needing a home. Taylor brings defense and speed with some pop in the role he was SUPPOSED to play last year. Someone like Pham or Duvall brings more power, less defense. Nobody left of this nature moves the needle much, but they help on the margins against LHSP. Might only mean a couple extra wins, but those wins could be important.

I like the depth they've built in the pen, and there's a couple guys there that could pay big dividends.

I like our offense better than the one that began 2023, and I like it better than Cleveland. A healthy Correa and even a half season of healthy Buxton is an upgrade as well. And could the offense possibly be as maddening inconsistent as it was the first half of 2023?

I'm not certain about Cleveland's rotation depth, but I give them the edge in the first 3 spots. Not so sure that Paddack, Varland, ANYTHING of quality from Disco might not exceed the Guardians. 

If the pen is actually better, and I think it is, and there are some arms that might help later in the season, that helps mitigate the loss of Gray on the balance sheet. If the offense is in the top third...I think they might be better than that...the runs will come. If Ryan is the Ryan, or close to, that he was through part of July before his injury, Ober repeats and doesn't even improve, Paddack can give us 120 solid IP, and we make the 5th spot work, I see 88 wins, maybe hitting 90. 92 isn't impossible.

"But Doc, that's IF's for the pen, lineup, and rotation"! Yep. But EVERYONE is just about ready to begin ST. Doesn't EVERYONE have IF's everywhere at this point? 😀

I'm most definitely hoping you folks in the upper-80s to lower-90s prediction range are right. I'm more on Fangraphs level with a mid-80s prediction. I believe they have them pegged at 85. Tied with Cleveland. It will be a fun and interesting season to see how all the ifs turn out!

[jorgenswest]

Did the recent moves drop their projection by a win or two?

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Did the recent moves drop their projection by a win or two?

If you mean the difference between the two articles, no. They use slightly different methodologies. 

[Squirrel]

On 2/8/2024 at 4:14 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, I clearly need to branch out from just Fangraphs....others can post here too!

Oh. And here I was about to rename this ‘Mike’s Fangraphs thread’

I’m kidding, of course. Thanks for getting this thread started.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

This team has a very high ceiling with a healthy Correa and Buxton (I know know 😉).  If Kepler is the Kepler from the second half with Lewis and Julien.  Those are 5 very good to elite batters.  

I like the pitching staff,  especially if Paddack and Desclafani are healthy.  

[Mike Sixel]

Tacoby Bellsbury
2:03    Who's your all-time favorite French Canadian MLB player?
Ben Clemens
2:03    After looking through a list, isn't Edouard Julien the only real choice?
2:04    oh no that was active players
I mean my favorite is still Julien but I would take Gagne and Morneau over him still so far

dust
2:12    Morneau isn't French Canadian, the last name is a red herringReactReact
Ben Clemens
2:12    What
2:13    outrageous

Mike
3:01    Will the Twins trade for or sign a good SP this off season? Will they find a RH hitting OF? Both? Neither?
Ben Clemens
3:01    I'm guessing neither at htis point

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

The Twins have Carlos Correa. They will win the AL Central by 5+ games.

[jorgenswest]

If you missed it a few weeks ago Baseball America had their podcast about the Twins prospects.

I just gave it a second listen. It left me so hopeful not only about Walker Jenkins and Brooks Lee but so many of the players that will provide position player depth. The decline phase position players on the roster better perform or be moved out of the way. They also have a great argument about why they ranked Canterino 6th. If he performs in spring and shows as a late inning reliever they better make room for him in place of one of those older relievers they have stockpiled recently.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Fangraphs posted their top 101 prospects list today:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/

They rate:
Walker Jenkins #26
Emmanuel Rodríguez #39
Brooks Lee #42
David Festa #97
 

[Mike Sixel]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-prospect-week-chat/

ram
1:15    Has there ever been a disparity between your list and the ZIPs list that has caused you to go back and reevaluate a prospect?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:17    Yes, Danny sends me zips a few days ahead so i can double check some guys. This year it was Danny de Andrade, who I felt comfortable moving on from quickly from a top 100 standpoint, still a fair prospect who'll be on their team list

[PseudoSABR]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-dodgers-favorite-returns-after-manuel-margots-to-minnesota/

FG's evaluation of the recent trade.  This is the money quote to me, as I hadn't heard that Doncon could stick at SS.

Quote

Doncon was a 2021 and 2022 backfield prodigy who looked like he could become a slugging middle infielder. His bat speed, body projection, as well as his struggles on defense and with chase, prompted Alfonso Soriano pipe dreams and more level-headed Esteury Ruiz comparisons at the time. Doncon had a mediocre 2023 with the bat – .215/.283/.368, albeit with a career-high 14 homers – but looked much better on defense. He currently has the actions and arm strength for shortstop, but he’s still young and has a lot of room on his frame, which means he may yet outgrow that position and move to either second or third. Doncon’s pitch recognition is not great, and he’s a bit more chase and whiff prone than is ideal, but he has good power for a hitter his age and is probably going to grow into more. The longer he can stay at short, the better chance he gives himself at being a useful big leaguer despite his flaws. The Twins have two seasons to develop Doncon before they have to decide whether to expose him to the Rule 5 draft, and realistically, they have another year or two beyond that to let him barbecue on the 40-man if they really want to. He adds an element of upside to their system as well as an element of risk. He is not likely to have a meteoric rise. Instead, he is a slow-burning, high-variance prospect.

 

[Mike Sixel]

If you sort that last table inversely, twins are number one!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/accounting-for-free-agencys-biggest-gainers-and-losers/

 

[Parfigliano]

On 2/9/2024 at 9:08 PM, jkcarew said:

Regarding the ALC…the more things change…the more they stay the same.

The consensus opinion is TC to win AL Central.  Hopefully followed by a much deeper playoff run.

[Mike Sixel]

Mike
1:43    None prospect question....but the Twins sure are betting a lot on a healthy Paddock and Descalfini after losing Gray. Is this really going to work (in the post season if they get there)?
Keith Law
1:44    Paddack has never thrown 150 innings in a professional season, and he's only made 20 starts in a season twice (2019 and 2021). Banking on him as a starter is irrational.

[Mike Sixel]

Jason
1:52    Brooks Lee has looked great in spring training. any chance he makes the opening day roster? move Julien to 1st and slide Lee to 2nd?
Keith Law
1:52    Also would be very foolish.

[Mike Sixel]

Brett
2:02    Have Julien and Wallner shown enough that they can be trusted as regulars?
Keith Law
2:02    I don't think so. Both look like platoon players, especially Wallner.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm beginning to suspect Keith has some doubts about this team....

[Parfigliano]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Brett
2:02    Have Julien and Wallner shown enough that they can be trusted as regulars?
Keith Law
2:02    I don't think so. Both look like platoon players, especially Wallner.

Strongly disagree.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Parfigliano said:

Strongly disagree.

I agree with your disagree. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Brett
2:02    Have Julien and Wallner shown enough that they can be trusted as regulars?
Keith Law
2:02    I don't think so. Both look like platoon players, especially Wallner.

That's a tough situation. They likely are platoon players (most lefties are), but they're the strong-side of a platoon so they'd be playing 75+% of the time. What's the definition of a "regular?" Feels like a situation where both things are true. They're regulars who should be platooned, especially Wallner.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That's a tough situation. They likely are platoon players (most lefties are), but they're the strong-side of a platoon so they'd be playing 75+% of the time. What's the definition of a "regular?" Feels like a situation where both things are true. They're regulars who should be platooned, especially Wallner.

That was my thought as well. If Wallner starts at least 120 games a year, that's a regular

[Doctor Wu]

17 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Paddack has never thrown 150 innings in a professional season, and he's only made 20 starts in a season twice (2019 and 2021). Banking on him as a starter is irrational.

I understand the doubts about Paddack and his ability to pitch many innings this year, especially coming back from TJ surgery. But that's 2 years in the past now, and I think he'll be more durable than expected this year, so I wouldn't call it "irrational" to expect that he actually proves the doubters wrong. 

[PseudoSABR]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/39653572/mlb-rank-2024-top-100-audit-players-feedback

Lot's of quotes from Farmer and Correa.  Including this one: "You put me at 78," Correa mused. "That's going to change for next year."

[Mike Sixel]

Not much lately....

Guest

How do you feel about Royce Lewis now (after the injury)

Ben Clemens

sad

[Mike Sixel]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-closely-projected-al-central-race-the-twins-lose-two-key-weapons/

[Mike Sixel]

Anil

3:27

Bailey Ober? Any thoughts

 

Jay Jaffe

3:27

Guy got bombed in one start? I think you're oberreacting

 

 

TRY THE VEAL!