Jorge Polanco Drawing Increased Trade Interest

[August J Gloop]

59 minutes ago, laloesch said:

 

I don't understand the fascination with SWR that many fans here have.  His minor league stats have been like a yo yo from one year to the next.  

SWR has two things going for him for fans (well three if you count the cool name). One, He was traded for Berrios, so folks want him to work out. Two, he's got physical tools which could be useful if he can harnass them. Potential is intoxicating. 

[SteveLV]

3, he is young for AAA.

[Doctor Wu]

On 12/13/2023 at 3:12 AM, mnfireman said:

Prielipp

Are we ever going to see Prielipp pitch in our system? What is his health status going into next season?

[Cory Engelhardt]

4. his stuff+ is really good. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Dan Hayes' article this morning did note that of Polanco, Kepler and Farmer, expect 2 of them to be traded this offseason.

My guess is he has been told this. Now I'm just curious who of the 2 he is talking about? I ALMOST think it could be BOTH Kepler and Polanco then, but who knows.

[Twinsrtheworst]

9 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

4. his stuff+ is really good. 

Not sure that's true.  His fastball is straight and is 91-93.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

It's a measurement that Eno Sarris came up with in the Athletic. It combines your command and your pitch movement (someone correct me here) to show how overall your stuff plays. He was top 4 or 5 in all of AAA last year in terms of this ranking.

Also, he did have a good run to really finish the year in St. Paul. Starting June 1 through the end of the season (14 starts) he was 7-1 with a 3.65 era, and in 79 innings he gave up only 61 hits, he did have 44 walks (that's really high?!?!) and had 68 k's. 

Get him to driveline this offseason, get his average fastball to 93-94, and I think you have something.

[nicksaviking]

6 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Dan Hayes' article this morning did note that of Polanco, Kepler and Farmer, expect 2 of them to be traded this offseason.

My guess is he has been told this. Now I'm just curious who of the 2 he is talking about? I ALMOST think it could be BOTH Kepler and Polanco then, but who knows.

Seems like that means Kepler and one of Polanco or Farmer. Not sure you do both infielders. Or at least you don't plan on doing both infielders.

[stringer bell]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Seems like that means Kepler and one of Polanco or Farmer. Not sure you do both infielders. Or at least you don't plan on doing both infielders.

Castro, Lee, Martin and Miranda are all infield option besides the projected starters. They absolutely could trade both Farmer and Polanco. 

[William K Johnson]

With Miranda at third and Julien at second, Correa had better prepare for a long season.

[stringer bell]

34 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

With Miranda at third and Julien at second, Correa had better prepare for a long season.

I don’t expect Miranda will get a lot of time at third base. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

20 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I don’t expect Miranda will get a lot of time at third base. 

Or any

[DJL44]

On 12/9/2023 at 5:16 PM, MABB1959 said:

They have a horrible trade track record 

They have a mixed trade record. Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan was a steal.

 

[DJL44]

On 12/13/2023 at 2:21 AM, chpettit19 said:

If Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Varland are so good as to lock down rotation spots through 2027, how many more of the young guys do we need? Especially if you bring in another controllable arm through trade this offseason. 

Are Festa and Raya going to simply be injury replacements between now and 2028? Neither of them could be called up this year if that's the case because they'd run out of options by 2027. Then what are they going to do with Lewis, Culpepper, Prielipp, Ohl, etc? Having 4 or 5 guys locked into rotation spots for 4 years is exactly when you trade some guys to upgrade the team because you don't have anywhere to put them anyways. Don't trade all of them, but 2 of them shouldn't hurt that bad.

I am guessing Raya ends up in the bullpen as well as Varland. If they have too many good pitchers they can trade Ober and Ryan as they reach the end of arbitration to open up spots. Imagine the ransom the Twins could demand if they were the team with the proven, cheap pitching this offseason.

[chpettit19]

16 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

It's a measurement that Eno Sarris came up with in the Athletic. It combines your command and your pitch movement (someone correct me here) to show how overall your stuff plays. He was top 4 or 5 in all of AAA last year in terms of this ranking.

Also, he did have a good run to really finish the year in St. Paul. Starting June 1 through the end of the season (14 starts) he was 7-1 with a 3.65 era, and in 79 innings he gave up only 61 hits, he did have 44 walks (that's really high?!?!) and had 68 k's. 

Get him to driveline this offseason, get his average fastball to 93-94, and I think you have something.

FYI, Stuff+ is just movement, spin rate, velo, and release point of pitches. Location+ is more about the command, although it's not basing on hitting the glove, but use pitch-type and count tied to the location of the pitch to judge command. Pitching+ is the combination of command and movement. Not just an averaging of your Stuff+ and Location+, but a totally different model. I believe all 3 of them take into account pitcher and hitter handedness, but I could be wrong on that.

Looks like SWR was 10th overall in Stuff+ (116.9) in AAA. 301 in Location+ (100.7 so basically league average). 307 in Pitching+ (100.6). So his stuff is quite good, but his control of it is lacking according to these numbers.

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I am guessing Raya ends up in the bullpen as well as Varland. If they have too many good pitchers they can trade Ober and Ryan as they reach the end of arbitration to open up spots. Imagine the ransom the Twins could demand if they were the team with the proven, cheap pitching this offseason.

If Raya is a bullpen arm it's all the more reason to trade him now when he's likely a well regarded prospect. I'm more concerned about getting to the point where they have enough pitching than I am about them ever having too much pitching. That's why I'd trade prospects for MLB pitching.

No team can afford to trade prospects for 1 year guys every year, but the Twins are in a spot where they can afford to trade prospects for someone they can lock into their rotation for years to come because that puts them in a position of having their rotation locked up for years and that gives you the chance to develop more pitching and reconfigure your rotation as you want moving forward. The other poster suggested it wasn't feasible to trade their current top pitching prospects, and I disagree because of the control they have over their current major league pitching.

[Cory Engelhardt]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

FYI, Stuff+ is just movement, spin rate, velo, and release point of pitches. Location+ is more about the command, although it's not basing on hitting the glove, but use pitch-type and count tied to the location of the pitch to judge command. Pitching+ is the combination of command and movement. Not just an averaging of your Stuff+ and Location+, but a totally different model. I believe all 3 of them take into account pitcher and hitter handedness, but I could be wrong on that.

Looks like SWR was 10th overall in Stuff+ (116.9) in AAA. 301 in Location+ (100.7 so basically league average). 307 in Pitching+ (100.6). So his stuff is quite good, but his control of it is lacking according to these numbers.

Thank you, I really do appreciate it. 

[Paul D]

There are no 2B in Free Agency except for Whit Merrifield. While he can provide versatility, his career is on a downward spiral. There are a number of teams looking for infield help, but Jose's name is not often mentioned as a possibility. I am thinking mostly the Red Sox who have no one to play second base and are looking for someone who can help their pitching staff by providing above average defense. There has to be some conversations going on between these two teams. The Sox don't really have anyone pitching or RH hitting outfielders available, but I think someone like Jarren Duran may make some sense. He does hit left handed, but provides coverage in CF (platooning with Buxton) and can play LF. His forte is that he is a proven base stealer.

[SteveLV]

Red Sox are an interesting matchup for a potential Polanco trade.

They don't have a ton of pitching depth, but something like Gonzalez and Perales for Polanco might work.  Both a year or two away with big arms.

I wonder if we could pry Teel away from them?  Liked him in the last draft, his power was not on display during brief pro debut, but C is such a tough position to find talent in.....

[Dave Borton]

Anyone else report on Polanco-Wiemer trade w/Brewers?

 

https://wisportsheroics.com/milwaukee-brewers-minnesota-twins-trade-proposal-jorge-polanco-joey-wiemer-bradley-blalock-news-notes-rumors/

[Cris E]

On 12/17/2023 at 1:09 PM, davidborton said:

Anyone else report on Polanco-Wiemer trade w/Brewers?

 

https://wisportsheroics.com/milwaukee-brewers-minnesota-twins-trade-proposal-jorge-polanco-joey-wiemer-bradley-blalock-news-notes-rumors/

Blech, just bite the bullet and trade for Burnes or Peralta. It'll cost and then you can play.  I agree that Polanco fits well in MIL, but picking up inconsistent or injured guys or prospects doesn't fit *our* needs.  We're trying to compete here, we are totally in our window of being in the playoffs and playing deep into October. If you trade Kepler then yes, you need more OF. But if you move Polanco you have his replacement on the roster and can think solely of the pitching, not the hole created. 

 

[RpR]

On 12/17/2023 at 1:09 PM, davidborton said:

Anyone else report on Polanco-Wiemer trade w/Brewers?

 

https://wisportsheroics.com/milwaukee-brewers-minnesota-twins-trade-proposal-jorge-polanco-joey-wiemer-bradley-blalock-news-notes-rumors/

Trade Polanco for some one on the Medoza line?

[harmony55]

Seattle would have little interest in Jorge Polanco, who is on the wrong side of age 30 coming off two straight sub-2 fWAR seasons.

The Mariners have four second-base candidates — Luis Urias, Josh Rojas. Jose Caballero and Dylan Moore — who in the past two years have posted at least 2 fWAR in a single season. Only Moore is at least 30 years old.

Polanco would only muddy up the situation.

[Cory Engelhardt]

16 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Seattle would have little interest in Jorge Polanco, who is on the wrong side of age 30 coming off two straight sub-2 fWAR seasons.

The Mariners have four second-base candidates — Luis Urias, Josh Rojas. Jose Caballero and Dylan Moore — who in the past two years have posted at least 2 fWAR in a single season. Only Moore is at least 30 years old.

Polanco would only muddy up the situation.

Seattle websites disagree with your assessment of Polanco. He would be a good addition to their lineup when he is healthy, especially compared to the players you listed.

[chpettit19]

17 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Seattle would have little interest in Jorge Polanco, who is on the wrong side of age 30 coming off two straight sub-2 fWAR seasons.

The Mariners have four second-base candidates — Luis Urias, Josh Rojas. Jose Caballero and Dylan Moore — who in the past two years have posted at least 2 fWAR in a single season. Only Moore is at least 30 years old.

Polanco would only muddy up the situation.

Jorge is 30. Moore is 30. Rojas is 29. Caballero is 27. Urias is 26. Urias and Caballero have a real age advantage. 

Jorge has a career 111 OPS+. Moore's is 98. Urias' is 97. Rojas' is 92. Caballero's is 90. None of the others have a career OPS+ of 100.

Jorge's OPS+ in 2023 was 115 in 80 games. Moore's was 104 in 67 games. Caballero's was 90 in 104 games. Rojas' was 78 in 105 games. Urias' was 76 in 52 games.

2021-2023 OPS+ and games played totals: Jorge 120 in 336 games. Urias 106 in 321 games. Rojas 99 in 369 games. Moore 94 in 297 games. Caballero 90 in 104 games (yes, he was a 27 year old rookie with a 90 OPS+).

I don't see how "Polanco would only muddy up the situation" when he's clearly the best player of that group. 

[harmony55]

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Jorge is 30. Moore is 30. Rojas is 29. Caballero is 27. Urias is 26. Urias and Caballero have a real age advantage. 

Jorge has a career 111 OPS+. Moore's is 98. Urias' is 97. Rojas' is 92. Caballero's is 90. None of the others have a career OPS+ of 100.

Jorge's OPS+ in 2023 was 115 in 80 games. Moore's was 104 in 67 games. Caballero's was 90 in 104 games. Rojas' was 78 in 105 games. Urias' was 76 in 52 games.

2021-2023 OPS+ and games played totals: Jorge 120 in 336 games. Urias 106 in 321 games. Rojas 99 in 369 games. Moore 94 in 297 games. Caballero 90 in 104 games (yes, he was a 27 year old rookie with a 90 OPS+).

I don't see how "Polanco would only muddy up the situation" when he's clearly the best player of that group. 

Luis Urias and Josh Rojas disappointed this year but in 2022 posted bWAR of 3.1 and 3.2, respectively, when Jorge Polanco posted 2.8 bWAR (before dropping to 2.0 bWAR this year).

Seattle would likely bet on bounce backs by the younger players.

 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Luis Urias and Josh Rojas disappointed this year but in 2022 posted bWAR of 3.1 and 3.2, respectively, when Jorge Polanco posted 2.8 bWAR (before dropping to 2.0 bWAR this year).

Seattle would likely bet on bounce backs by the younger players.

 

Rojas isn't meaningfully younger. He's 29 to Jorge's 30. Actually they're nearly exactly a year different (July 5 birthday for Jorge and June 30 for Rojas). That 3.2 WAR season is the outlier, not his 2023. His career WAR numbers are -0.1, -0.3, 0.8, 3.2, 0.4 Betting on a bounce back by a guy who's had 2 negative WAR seasons to 3 positive WAR seasons, and only 1 season with a WAR over 1, as compared to Jorge Polanco who's had 1 negative WAR season (-0.1 in 2015) and multiple 4+ WAR seasons while being 1 year older would be a terrible bet. Josh Rojas is going into his age 30 season with a career bWAR total of 3.9. 82% of that WAR came in 1 season. Jorge is going into his age 31 season with a career bWAR total of 17.3.

Seattle would likely bet on a bounce back by the clearly better player who's not significantly older.

Maybe they'd bet on Urias to bounce back to his 2021/2022 numbers, but they have an opening at both 2B and 3B so it'd probably make sense to put Urias at 3B where he's played the most games of his major league career and Polanco at 2B where he's a significantly better option than anyone else you named. In fact, their current depth chart lists Urias at 3B and Rojas at 2B where I just laid out that Polanco is the clearly better option. Polanco would be a great fit in Seattle.

[Riverbrian]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Rojas isn't meaningfully younger. He's 29 to Jorge's 30. Actually they're nearly exactly a year different (July 5 birthday for Jorge and June 30 for Rojas). That 3.2 WAR season is the outlier, not his 2023. His career WAR numbers are -0.1, -0.3, 0.8, 3.2, 0.4 Betting on a bounce back by a guy who's had 2 negative WAR seasons to 3 positive WAR seasons, and only 1 season with a WAR over 1, as compared to Jorge Polanco who's had 1 negative WAR season (-0.1 in 2015) and multiple 4+ WAR seasons while being 1 year older would be a terrible bet. Josh Rojas is going into his age 30 season with a career bWAR total of 3.9. 82% of that WAR came in 1 season. Jorge is going into his age 31 season with a career bWAR total of 17.3.

Seattle would likely bet on a bounce back by the clearly better player who's not significantly older.

Maybe they'd bet on Urias to bounce back to his 2021/2022 numbers, but they have an opening at both 2B and 3B so it'd probably make sense to put Urias at 3B where he's played the most games of his major league career and Polanco at 2B where he's a significantly better option than anyone else you named. In fact, their current depth chart lists Urias at 3B and Rojas at 2B where I just laid out that Polanco is the clearly better option. Polanco would be a great fit in Seattle.

If I'm Seattle - if asked if I want Polanco... the answer would be... Yes Absolutely Please Thank You. 

[harmony55]

In a one-to-one comparison with any of Luis Urias, Josh Rojas, Jose Caballero, Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss, Jorge Polanco might hold an edge despite Polanco’s decline past his 30th birthday..

But the choice for Seattle would be Polanco or the field of Urias, Rojas, Caballero, Moore and Bliss, The Mariners would likely choose the field to distribute the risk, especially at Polanco’s guaranteed $11.25 million (which coincidentally matches the combined projected and guaranteed 2024 salaries of Urias, Rojas and Moore).

The Mariners should find better investments than Jorge Polanco.

[tony&rodney]

Polanco is so much better at baseball than any and all of those Seattle players that it is actually absurd to have this conversation. Yes, Polanco has been injured a few times and had less than expected totals the last two years. Do we know of any other infielders on the Twins team who have had injuries? So 29 home runs is disappointing, right? Seattle would love that problem.

A real question is ... Why is Jorge Polanco so underrated?