The Twins Daily Table Setter - December 6, 2023

[Lou Hennessy]

A slow-moving free agent and trade market continues to be the talk of the Winter Meetings, especially at the top end. That part of the market is most likely not in play for the Twins, who usually avoid diving into that tidal wave, and would rather see what washes ashore in the aftermath, so they, too, can only wait and watch. Here’s your Twins Daily dose of information. 
 

Image courtesy of © Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

While everyone bemoans how little is happening, there's actually some stuff happening. It's just a bit more workaday than we imagine when we think of the annual league convention.

Buxton Health Optimism
Twins fans know the drill when it comes to their star center fielder. While general optimism is welcome after any positive development, it should be taken with a grain of salt. A healthy Byron Buxton would be about as good of an addition as the club could make this offseason, but there’s a lot of winter to go, and then comes the minefield of spring training.

But for what it’s worth, the team is extending some good news when it comes to their cornerstone player, saying he’s showing great signs of recovery after his knee surgery in October. Buxton was spotted in town last week, where he apparently met with surgeon Chris Camp and Twins’ trainer Nick Paparesta. 

"They felt like he was moving around about as well as they had seen him move around in a long time, which was great," said Twins President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey. Buxton has now been cleared for all baseball activities, and he’s slated to undergo further evaluation later this week and into next. 

Could this development affect the club’s pursuit of another option in center field? That seems short-sighted, but this news does dampen the urgency to find an alternative full-time option, however slightly. Michael A. Taylor filled in admirably when thrust into a majority share of that role last year, but his market is also starting to take shape, with a handful of teams showing interest. 

Again, only time will tell, but the club seems confident that Buxton will be ready to go full-steam ahead when spring training opens in early February, and they confirmed their expectation that he should be in the mix for playing time in center.

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Relief Market Heating Up
The Twins haven’t been linked to any relievers as of yet, but it’s reasonable to expect them to explore the market as the dust begins to settle like they have in years past. It’s highly unlikely that they would make a play for a marquee bullpen ace such as Josh Hader, but they’ll need to supplement their relief corps if they hope to have the same stability that they showed in 2023.

That holds especially true after losing Emilio Pagan, who agreed to a two-year contract with the Cincinnati Reds over the weekend. Pagán was second on the Twins in relief appearances, and his rubber arm will be missed, despite some fan skepticism after an up-and-down 2022 campaign. The righty finished the 2023 season with a 2.99 ERA, with 8.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 69 ⅓ innings pitched. 

Looking league-wide, the relief dominoes appear to be falling. Kirby Yates signed a one-year deal with the Texas Rangers, Chris Devenski inked a contract with the Tampa Bay Rays, and a handful of teams have been showing interest in hard-throwing Jordan Hicks. These options are in the mold of player that the Twins could target when they decide to make a move for a bullpen addition, but again, they have a history of waiting until the calendar flips. Expect them to look into modest one-year deals, and even some minor-league deals with invitations to spring training.

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Rule 5 Draft On Deck
It hasn’t been part of this front office’s M.O. to make a selection in the Rule 5 Draft, but they're keeping an open mind (and they have some open roster spots) this year. These selections can be risky, as the player needs to occupy a spot on the team’s 26-man roster (or on the IL) for the entirety of the season if they wish to keep him in the organization. Then again, the only thing ventured is a $100,000 transaction fee. If the player doesn't stick, the Twins can offer the player back to whichever organization they were selected from, and get half that paltry amount back.

With 36 men on the reserve list already and some looming logjams, it's still not actually likely that the Twins make a selection. However, they could see the flip-side of that coin. One of their breakout minor-leaguers from the last season, DeShawn Keirsey, Jr., was left exposed at the deadline to protect players by adding them to the 40-man. The 26-year-old center fielder began the year at Double A, where he had the best performance of his professional career, hitting .305/.363/.488 (.850 OPS) with 13 home runs in 91 games played. He was promoted to Triple-A St. Paul, where he continued to impress with his speed and defensive prowess. Keirsey’s player type is generally seen as an ideal Rule 5 candidate, as he is close to MLB-ready, and it’s easier to hide them on the bench or with limited playing opportunity. As a fourth outfielder/pinch runner, Keirsey could appeal to a plethora of teams. Here's hoping the Twins don't come to rue the day they passed him over for protection.

Other news and tidbits:

• Buxton wasn’t the only right-handed hitter who got positive news on the injury front. Infielder Jose Miranda is also said to be showing improvement after a cleanup procedure on his right shoulder, and should be ready for spring training.
• The Twins once again improved their position in the MLB draft. Even though they finished the 2023 season with the 23rd-worst record, they will instead hold the 21st overall pick in next year’s draft, thanks to some shuffling due to the MLB Draft Lottery, which was held last night. Of course, it’s not as substantial of a jump as last year, where they were awarded the fifth overall pick while having the 13th-worst record. They went on to pick their current No. 1 prospect, Walker Jenkins. The Cleveland Guardians were awarded the first pick in the 2024 draft. 

What's on your mind as we head down the home stretch of the Winter Meetings? What do you realistically want to see the Twins do before the week is through? Let us know what you think in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

It'll be interesting to see how much draft bonus pool money the Twins end up with, now having pick #21, a pick for Gray signing elsewhere for over 50 million, and a comp B pick after the 2nd round. They certainly can make some waves in the draft, and that's certainly a fun follow. 

[Muppet]

My favorite part about the off season is being overly and unrealistically optimistic. Sure Buxton is healed! He will be the gg, mvp, ss all star CF we know him to be. Ryan and Ober are going to take huge steps forward, so much that we won't even remember that guy who is now in... where is it? St. Louis? Miranda and Larnach are not only going to be not bad, but they'll actually be good (both have been a tad overrated IMO... but not anymore). There will be no sophomore slump for Lewis and Julien. Pagan and Gallo are finally gone thank the baseball gods (yes, I know... Pagan ended up figuring it out... but whatever)! And finally,... Nick Gordon will have the kind of year that will have most of us denying we ever hoped for his offloading to a low level type of team that may or not be playing in Las Vegas soon. 

The best part of the off season is that ALL of these things could very well come true. If they did, this team would be unstoppable. And, I'd even say that until opening day, I'll even expect all of this to come true. 

[Muppet]

One thing I hope the Twins DO do this offseason... Let's get Akil Baddoo back and watch him turn into an all star... just to mess with the Tigers a bit. 

[Doctor Gast]

Cleveland got the #1 overall '24 draft pick. IMO fortunately this draft is considerably weaker. not sure where the Twins are.

[Seth Stohs]

2 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Cleveland got the #1 overall '24 draft pick. IMO fortunately this draft is considerably weaker. not sure where the Twins are.

The Twins have the 21st pick. Then they'll have another pick around 32-35ish (for Gray)... 

[roger]

Puzzled by your comment that the Twins have 38 palyers on their reserve list.  Assume you are talking about the 40-man roster.  Thought 38 wasn't right, so I went and counted to confirm they have 36 on the 40-man.  So lots of room to add several players over the winter

As for players coming back from injuries.  If they could be so fortunate to get full seasons from both Buxton and Lewis, it would be huge.  Will consider Buxton having a full season with say 110 games in center and another 15-20 as DH.  Add a full season from either AK or Miranda, and the Twins will be good, very good.  I know that I, as I expect many of us have, forgot how good Miranda was two years ago.  No question his injury had an effect on his performance all last year.  A healthy 2022 version of Miranda would be huge. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

3 minutes ago, roger said:

Puzzled by your comment that the Twins have 38 palyers on their reserve list.  Assume you are talking about the 40-man roster.  Thought 38 wasn't right, so I went and counted to confirm they have 36 on the 40-man.  So lots of room to add several players over the winter

As for players coming back from injuries.  If they could be so fortunate to get full seasons from both Buxton and Lewis, it would be huge.  Will consider Buxton having a full season with say 110 games in center and another 15-20 as DH.  Add a full season from either AK or Miranda, and the Twins will be good, very good.  I know that I, as I expect many of us have, forgot how good Miranda was two years ago.  No question his injury had an effect on his performance all last year.  A healthy 2022 version of Miranda would would be huge. 

Thanks for the catch; 36 is correct. I'll be updating the piece momentarily. 

I agree, we might be overlooking Miranda as a bounceback candidate. I don't love his outlook at this point, but there's *some* chance he gets back to being a really good hitter. Whether it's 10 percent or 50 is a matter for healthy debate.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Agreed. I think the dust needs to settle out a little on the FA starters before that deal can be made. The picture will be much clearer once Ohtani, Snell, Stroman, Rodriguez, and Yamamoto sign contracts, Those clubs left our will then pivot to the Twins likely targets in Seattle and Miami. I doubt that those two clubs will entertain a trade until that part of the market shakes out and they can create some competition. The Winter Meetings are key to laying out a baseline for what we want and are willing to give that will hopefully come to fruition in January/February.  

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

The Twins have the 21st pick. Then they'll have another pick around 32-35ish (for Gray)... 

I believe its 33rd pick the the 2nd round pick will be late 50s depending on where the QO decliners sign. I believe those teams lose their 2 overall draft pick and then 11 picks later we get the compB pick so thats 4 picks in about the top 60ish. Hopefully its gonna be quite the draft possibilities!!

[Fatbat]

I have a question, If the Twins picked up a rule 5 guy, would they lose the 33rd pick or the 2nd round pick?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

13 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I have a question, If the Twins picked up a rule 5 guy, would they lose the 33rd pick or the 2nd round pick?

No,  only if they signed a player that was offered a Qualifying Offer,  I think we can safely say we are ok on that front.  

[SaintPaulRocks]

I am going to be sad to see Prato gone. I'm thinking he will be picked in the top 10 of the rule 5. A righty bat with his high OBP, wRC+ 153 at AAA and speed while playing 2B and LF fits our roster well.  He's a perfect 13th man.

Keirsey will not be picked so still with us in StP next year. Twins pick a pitcher in this years rule 5, lots of open spots. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Honestly,  we should be more happy with this offseason if Buck is going to be healthy.  I know we feel like Lucy,  however, I don't think Buck ever felt well at any point last season or for the last couple years for that matter.  If he is back to his elite self that dramatically changes the dynamic of the team.  

[MMMordabito]

21 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I have a question, If the Twins picked up a rule 5 guy, would they lose the 33rd pick or the 2nd round pick?

No, draft picks aren't tied to Rule 5 selections.  They cost $100K and a 26-man spot the whole season.  If they're injured, they occupy a 40-man spot at least until the IL opens up in the spring. 

[FlyingFinn]

15 minutes ago, SaintPaulRocks said:

I am going to be sad to see Prato gone. I'm thinking he will be picked in the top 10 of the rule 5. A righty bat with his high OBP, wRC+ 153 at AAA and speed while playing 2B and LF fits our roster well.  He's a perfect 13th man.

There was a poster in another thread who correctly stated that there were 13 players selected last year in the Rule 5 draft. A grand total of two were non-pitchers. I don't think he will get drafted. Will find out soon.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I agree with Finn I don't think Prato is picked although I said the same thing about Baddoo and Prato is a better bat.   I think we sneak through with no one being picked.  Even still Prato is just another bat in this system.   

[MMMordabito]

F the Yankees ... Going to get Soto

[Brandon]

4 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

It'll be interesting to see how much draft bonus pool money the Twins end up with, now having pick #21, a pick for Gray signing elsewhere for over 50 million, and a comp B pick after the 2nd round. They certainly can make some waves in the draft, and that's certainly a fun follow. 

Does this mean the Twins have 4 of the top 100 picks in the next draft?

[Brandon]

As far as our winter moves are concerned.  I am just watching for our starting pitcher acquisition.  That will be the big move.  from that we may trade a salary,  the other moves like minor league offers for relievers and bench players maybe we sign someone to a legit 2 million deal to be a back up but the rest of the moves will be minor.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

8 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Does this mean the Twins have 4 of the top 100 picks in the next draft?

Could be 5. Their 1st, (21) the pick they got for Gray (33 or so) their 2nd (60ish) and a comp pick after the 2nd round (75ish) and then whenever their 3rd round pick would be. The numbers, other than 21, are just guesses

[MMMordabito]

At least the Yankees pitching depth is getting gutted in the rule 5.

[ashbury]

Twins take no one, lose no one, in the major league portion of the draft.

They've taken a pitcher and catcher in the minor league phases, but these usually are just organizational fill.

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I believe its 33rd pick the the 2nd round pick will be late 50s depending on where the QO decliners sign. I believe those teams lose their 2 overall draft pick and then 11 picks later we get the compB pick so thats 4 picks in about the top 60ish. Hopefully its gonna be quite the draft possibilities!!

33rd right now, but does that change if others are signed? I'd guess so....

[Fatbat]

22 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

33rd right now, but does that change if others are signed? I'd guess so....

I think it can only go up if say AZ signs a QO guy. AZ might lose a pick just ahead of us?  Other wise, once the QO guys sign, our 2nd round pick and comp B may move up if the signing team loses their 2nd rounder.  (I think) but then if they are signed for over $50M then the team that lost them slots in around 33ish? 

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, MMMordabito said:

At least the Yankees pitching depth is getting gutted in the rule 5.

and with the upcoming soto trade

 

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Twins take no one, lose no one, in the major league portion of the draft.

They've taken a pitcher and catcher in the minor league phases, but these usually are just organizational fill.

We got one player this way once upon a time.  Brian Buscher from the Giants.  Not a half bad pick either.  not a great player but ok back up.

Brian Buscher Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

[Doctor Wu]

19 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Agreed. I think the dust needs to settle out a little on the FA starters before that deal can be made. The picture will be much clearer once Ohtani, Snell, Stroman, Rodriguez, and Yamamoto sign contracts, Those clubs left our will then pivot to the Twins likely targets in Seattle and Miami. I doubt that those two clubs will entertain a trade until that part of the market shakes out and they can create some competition. The Winter Meetings are key to laying out a baseline for what we want and are willing to give that will hopefully come to fruition in January/February.  

Rodriquez signing for 4 years with Arizona for "about" 20 million per year. Don't think the Twins were in the mix for that one. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

5 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Rodriquez signing for 4 years with Arizona for "about" 20 million per year. Don't think the Twins were in the mix for that one. 

Agreed. While I wish we were more active in the free agent market for starting pitching, I think any starting pitching add will come about by a trade. I hope we pull off a trade for someone like Miller or Woo from Seattle. Gilbert would be even better, but he is likely to cost us Brooks Lee or someone equivalent plus Polanco and another solid prospect. That price is a bit too high for me. I also se us picking up a lower end starter like Brad Keller or Jamie Barria or a reclamation project like Frankie Montas or Sean Manaea through FA. The key to next year's rotation will be health, Chris Paddack as a solid #3 starter or better, and well, health. We are not likely to have much experienced depth in the rotation and I don't see anyone in the Minors jumping up to become this year's Bailey Ober or Louie Varland. Hope I'm wrong about that.