The Chris Paddack Dilemma: Is He a Viable Starting Rotation Option for 2024?

[TwinsDr2021]

6 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

I think Paddack will be more than just viable in the 2024 rotation.

What does more than viable mean? Is is 108 1/2 inning with an ERA of 5? Or 140 2/3 inning with an 3.33 ERA? Is it averaging 5 innings a start with an ERA of 4.7?

IMO he should start between 20 and 23 starts and pitch about 110 innings during the regular season. Is that more than viable?

 

[Riverbrian]

20 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Only 40 pitchers last year started 30 or more games. Less than 80 started 25 games. 118 for 20 games If Law wants to deal with realism you can start with those numbers. A team would be foolish to think their 5 man rotation is going to hold up for the whole season. Or be effective for the whole season. It is not 1-5 it is 1-9.  Who are the 6-9 starters. If the starters are Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Varland and Paddack, that leaves Festa and SWR as 6-7. What you have for 8 and 9 get dicey. Bullpen games require a stronger depth than the questions Twins have on their roster. It is early December and not late March. The pool of available talent will get sorted out.. we want the the world and we want it now. (For the many who wouldn’t remember the line )

This post is pure reality. 

For those who are still trying to compare 5 names in the rotation last year with 5 names for the rotation this year.

May I strongly suggest reading the above post. 

Paddack may or may not stay healthy. Lopez may or may not stay healthy, Ryan may or may not stay healthy, Ober may or may not stay healthy. 

Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Varland may pitch better than last year or they may pitch worse than last year but I'm willing to bet that that none of them will pitch the same as last year. 

Add as many good arms to the 40 man because we are going to need 9-10 of them to get through the season. 

Don't add bad arms to the 40 man because we are going to need 9-10 of them to get through the season. 

Paddack is a good arm.  

Bundy is not a good arm. 

There is no Paddack dilemma. 

 

 

 

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Pitching proved that a quality pitcher can win in the post season  ...

We will have to acquire a quality pitcher through trade that has control and comes with  a lesser cost than a free agent  ...

Mediocre pitching can win divisions  but fail in post seasons against the better teams ...

Winter meetings are here , the FO needs to find this pitcher through trade and it isn't going to be a one for one swap like arraez for Lopez,  even though the twins did get 2 other prospects back along with Lopez,  but it still feels like a one for one ...

Every team is looking for quality pitchers  , so the FO needs to be aggressive  and get something done before other teams scoop up the tradeable pitchers available  ...

It would also be nice to get this done to generate some interest for Twins fest , since their payroll announcement has deflated some of the Twins fans interest ...

Paddack should be good until he isn't  , liked how he pitched in the small sample size at the end of 2023  ...

You could see the fire and determination in his eyes,  he wants the ball ...

I agree with you that quality pitching is necessary in the post-season, which was why Gray's start against Houston was so disappointing - it was right there for the taking for the Twins.

I also agree about Paddock - he has that 'eye of the tiger' look to him. I think he has a chip on his shoulder and is wanting to prove he is a quality MLB pitcher. He certainly has the stuff. Yes, pitching much more than, say, Maeda's 2023 innings may be a challenge.

If the Twins can pick up a decent starting pitcher who can provide 150-180 innings, things should be just fine.

[Major League Ready]

Every year people on this site panic when all of the team's needs have not been fulfilled by Dec 1.  I think we can be very sure the FO is aware of the need created by the departure of Gray and Maeda.  Does anyone really think they will do nothing and rely on internal options?  The question is not if.  It's how?  Will they clear payroll space and sign someone or will they trade or will they do both.

[Mike h]

How quickly we forget that Madea was a Cy Young candidate a few years ago. Then he needed TJ surgery.  He is just now coming back fully and I don't know why he can't dominate again.  Paddack  was slotted as San Diego's number 4  starter when we acquired him, and then he needed TJ surgery.  When he is fully back, he may reach number 4 status again.  Not dominant stuff.  I'm not looking for anything more from him.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Teams generally don't put a pitcher on an innings limit because of Tommy John,  its more due to the strength of the arm and previously handling that many innings.  Personally I could see Paddack going 130 innings next year possibly 140 if the arm looks strong.  They may skip a start or two,  but beyond that they have him on a 2 year contract.    If he blows out the arm again he is likely done.  A few more innings likely isn't going to determine if it holds up or not.  He will be a full 2 years removed from the Tommy John so it should be strong and healthy,  which he looked this fall.  

After a 2nd Tommy John it is unheard of to gain velocity,  and thats what Paddack did.  He dialed it up to 98.  Now it was the playoffs, but he was regularly in the 95 to 96 range on his 2-3 inning outing.   He is throwing it easy, and the command of the secondary pitches looks really good.  Stuff wise, I would argue he is maybe right there with Pablo.  Maybe a little below.   

I am expecting his fastball to hover in the 94-95 range next year.   If he can be our #3 or #4 pitcher this year with possibly being our #2 in the playoffs this year,  then being our #2 in 2025 I think that would be the ideal situation.    

[Fatbat]

@Mike h Are you saying that Paddack’s ceiling is #4 and no better? Or just that way since thats what he was 3 yrs ago at age 25 and had TJ 3 years before that. He only has 350 innings on him in MLB so its not as if he has a long track record of anything but blowing his UCL. He has 6 more years to be viewed as either washed up and gone or holy cow did he mature and become a hell of a pro SP.  Other than health, how can a #4 starter be his career ceiling? 

[Fatbat]

@Hawkeye Bean Counter just counting beans over here… 25 quality starts x 6 innings = 150 innings so your right in the money. I would have to believe thats what the FO is penciling him in for.  Its may be the high end of expectations but like you say, if he is healthy and get outs, he is gonna be on the bump. 

[ashbury]

55 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

There is no Paddack dilemma. 

Came here to say mainly the same thing after seeing the headline then reading the story.

Chris Paddack is an option, and possibly a very good one.  Wait and see how he bears up to the workload.  No dilemma in that.

[Morland]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Paddack could be totally solid for 100 innings and he may take the ball as a starting pitcher for around 17 games. Expecting anything more doesn't seem realistic. I'm feeling positive about Chris Paddack.

I agree. Those who think he's going to be a number 2 starter and pitch 175 innings are dreaming. We need to trade some of our surplus and hope we get as lucky as we did with Lopez. When we got Lopez, no one thought we were getting an ace pitcher.

[Fatbat]

Dan Hayes had a great story in The Athletic 11/30 about what the Twins’ expectations of Paddack are for ‘24. Falvi and Maki both expect high end innings from him. There was a great point made that if CP doesn’t have the arm fatigue, he could go well above the innings and results of Maeda’23. I’d trust Maki to know what his players are capable of. 

[tony&rodney]

27 minutes ago, Morland said:

When we got Lopez, no one thought we were getting an ace pitcher.

To be clear, i like Paddack. He is going to find it tough at times this year but we can hope he does well. 

I agree about the challenge trades similar to the Lopez-Arraez deal. BTW, I was proposing trading Arraez to Miami from the start of last offseason, including deals that acquired Lopez for much more than the final deal. I thought Lopez was a stretch but the Marlins really wanted Arraez. It will be more difficult to trade this offseason. Any deal for a good pitcher will be far more costly than Arraez was last year.

[Fatbat]

34 minutes ago, Morland said:

I agree. Those who think he's going to be a number 2 starter and pitch 175 innings are dreaming. We need to trade some of our surplus and hope we get as lucky as we did with Lopez. When we got Lopez, no one thought we were getting an ace pitcher.

Even if Paddack has those kind of high end innings, we still need another ace. 

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Dan Hayes had a great story in The Athletic 11/30 about what the Twins’ expectations of Paddack are for ‘24. Falvi and Maki both expect high end innings from him. There was a great point made that if CP doesn’t have the arm fatigue, he could go well above the innings and results of Maeda’23. I’d trust Maki to know what his players are capable of. 

When I read that I thought that both Falvey and Maki were being very optimistic. I'm bullish on Paddack but building up in games is different than building up on the side. I will take the under at 110 innings. Another question might be ... Did we all take Maeda for granted? Lastly, Paddack is signed for 2025 and the Twins will want to protect him in 2024 when necessary in order to get full value from Paddack in 2025.

[Fatbat]

5 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

When I read that I thought that both Falvey and Maki were being very optimistic. I'm bullish on Paddack but building up in games is different than building up on the side. I will take the under at 110 innings. Another question might be ... Did we all take Maeda for granted? Lastly, Paddack is signed for 2025 and the Twins will want to protect him in 2024 when necessary in order to get full value from Paddack in 2025.

Not me, I wanted Maeda back and I would have given him the QO but Im not in charge.  If Paddack somehow becomes reliable in ‘24, at 28 years old, I would extend him thru 2027. 

[Guest]

Not sure what the concern with pitching depth is all about. Based on comments we got the following to compete for the fourth or fifth starter: Paddack, Paddock, Peacock, Paddle-lock, and Poppycock. Sorry I couldn't resist. Move along, nothing to see here.

[PatPfund]

The Keith Law piece was bizarre as the OP said. I pretty much assumed he put it together under time pressure, or in moments of distraction, because there really is no other excuse (other than incompetence which doesn't apply to Law) for putting together a piece on the rotation that mentions Balazovic, but skips any mention of Paddack, and refers to Varland as a "former starter' (when he was a rookie starter converted to RP strictly for the playoffs).

Law made it worse by his defenses in the comments; instead just saying something like 'my bad' he tried to make a case for not mentioning Paddack. A really stupid case implying no one could consider Paddack as an MLB starter (he has 65 MLB starts) while mentioning Balazovic (who has ZERO MLB starts and is closer to being DFA'd than starting '24 in the Twins rotation).

The OP's point is that Paddack is the Maeda next year is apt. I also like Varland's chances to improve; he was a rookie, so there is room, and he seems to be a driven young man, so I suspect the effort won't be lacking.

And yep, it still leaves the Twins needing a couple more SP arms, because injuries are part of the game, and even if Ober is less restricted inning-wise, Paddack will have limits.

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, Mike h said:

How quickly we forget that Madea was a Cy Young candidate a few years ago. Then he needed TJ surgery.  He is just now coming back fully and I don't know why he can't dominate again.  Paddack  was slotted as San Diego's number 4  starter when we acquired him, and then he needed TJ surgery.  When he is fully back, he may reach number 4 status again.  Not dominant stuff.  I'm not looking for anything more from him.

Maeda will turn 36 a couple weeks after the season starts.  It's a rare thing for SPs to dominate at age 36.  I hope the Twins are looking for more ceiling over what he is likely to be as opposed to what he has been.  

[mnfireman]

54 minutes ago, arby58 said:

If the Twins can pick up a decent starting pitcher who can provide 150-180 innings, things should be just fine.

Considering there were only 59 pitchers who pitched more than 150 innings last season, and the Twins had 3 of those, and 2 of the 25 who pitched 180+ innings, this is a big ask. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Verified Member said:

Not sure what the concern with pitching depth is all about. Based on comments we got the following to compete for the fourth or fifth starter: Paddack, Paddock, Peacock, Paddle-lock, and Poppycock. Sorry I couldn't resist. Move along, nothing to see here.

Some of this is needed, to replace the lately departed Maeda, Meada, and Madea.

[arby58]

3 hours ago, Mike h said:

How quickly we forget that Madea was a Cy Young candidate a few years ago. Then he needed TJ surgery.  He is just now coming back fully and I don't know why he can't dominate again.  Paddack  was slotted as San Diego's number 4  starter when we acquired him, and then he needed TJ surgery.  When he is fully back, he may reach number 4 status again.  Not dominant stuff.  I'm not looking for anything more from him.

Maeda was a Cy Young candidate in the COVID-shortened 2020, over 66.2 innings. Maeda's first year he threw 175.2 innings; since then, 134.1, 125.1, 153.2, 66.2, 106.1, 0, 104.1. 

I don't think 'dominated' is a word you would use for Maeda other than the 66.2 innings of 2020. His yearly ERAs have been 3.48, 4.22, 3.81, 4.04, 2.70 (dominant year), 4.66, 4.23. That said, the career ERA is 3.93 - yes, he is/was a good pitcher, but he is also going to be 36 years old in April 2024. Paddock has a lot more upside potential.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

The Keith Law piece was bizarre as the OP said. I pretty much assumed he put it together under time pressure, or in moments of distraction, because there really is no other excuse (other than incompetence which doesn't apply to Law) for putting together a piece on the rotation that mentions Balazovic, but skips any mention of Paddack, and refers to Varland as a "former starter' (when he was a rookie starter converted to RP strictly for the playoffs).

Law made it worse by his defenses in the comments; instead just saying something like 'my bad' he tried to make a case for not mentioning Paddack. A really stupid case implying no one could consider Paddack as an MLB starter (he has 65 MLB starts) while mentioning Balazovic (who has ZERO MLB starts and is closer to being DFA'd than starting '24 in the Twins rotation).

The OP's point is that Paddack is the Maeda next year is apt. I also like Varland's chances to improve; he was a rookie, so there is room, and he seems to be a driven young man, so I suspect the effort won't be lacking.

And yep, it still leaves the Twins needing a couple more SP arms, because injuries are part of the game, and even if Ober is less restricted inning-wise, Paddack will have limits.

KLaw's piece really was weird. He's always been high on Balazovic and was the first national guy to highlight him as a prospect to watch, so it's understandable that he's holding a torch for him, but the mention suggested he hadn't really been paying attention to what had been going on with him recently. Missing Paddack was equally odd: even if Law doesn't think he's a viable rotation option coming off TJ and with his track record, he's obviously in the mix for the Twins and shown improved stuff in his relief appearances that would make him intriguing to most. Instead of just stating "hey, I don't think this guy can be a quality starter and here's why" when challenged in the comments, he got pretty nasty, insulting both the commenters and the Twins front office...which has earned better.

Paddack seems like a very reasonable 5th starter for most teams; he's got real upside if his pitch mix has developed (Law is correct that he hadn't consistently shown a 3rd pitch) but might have an innings limitation based on his surgery. But as a 5th starter who might get skipped a couple of times to keep him fresh? Seems reasonable. 

[Nine of twelve]

6 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

What does more than viable mean?

Well, really you'd have to ask Cody Schoenmann; he used viable in the headline. But my inference is that he thinks viable means good enough to be in the rotation. What I meant by more than viable is that I think he will be one of the top three in our rotation (with Lopez and Ryan).

[DocBauer]

Paddack looked really promising as a rookie in 2019. Then he didn't look so good the following two years. In five starts to begin 2022, he wasn't fantastic, but looked pretty solid, and was working on some tweaks the staff made with him.

He then got hurt. And then he came back hitting 97mph and sitting at 94/95 and feeling and looking strong. He's also only about to turn 28yo, so he's relatively young as well. 24/25 starts and 120-130 IP is what I'm hoping for, but it may be a little less as the Twins might nurse him a bit through the season to keep him strong for the end. 

They are going to need 8-9 arms at some point, even if it's for a single start or two. Paddack is going to be part of the top 5 almost assuredly. There is no dilemma. He's got some good stuff, has potential, and is needed. It's just a question of how good he will be, start to finish, for 2024.

[Beast]

Well, he’s not wrong.  It’s malpractice to go into the year with Paddack and Varland penciled into the rotation.  It doesn’t matter what people believe or think about those two.  This is what losing poverty franchises do, rationalize however you want.

[darin617]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Paddack could be totally solid for 100 innings and he may take the ball as a starting pitcher for around 17 games. Expecting anything more doesn't seem realistic. I'm feeling positive about Chris Paddack.

So what does that mean? That he pitches 17 games and gets hurt again or the Twins release him or trade him? Your 17 games for 100 innings is almost 6 innings a start.  

Very odd comment that doesn't explain why he only pitches that much in 2024.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

5 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Paddack looked really promising as a rookie in 2019. Then he didn't look so good the following two years. In five starts to begin 2022, he wasn't fantastic, but looked pretty solid, and was working on some tweaks the staff made with him.

He then got hurt. And then he came back hitting 97mph and sitting at 94/95 and feeling and looking strong. He's also only about to turn 28yo, so he's relatively young as well. 24/25 starts and 120-130 IP is what I'm hoping for, but it may be a little less as the Twins might nurse him a bit through the season to keep him strong for the end. 

They are going to need 8-9 arms at some point, even if it's for a single start or two. Paddack is going to be part of the top 5 almost assuredly. There is no dilemma. He's got some good stuff, has potential, and is needed. It's just a question of how good he will be, start to finish, for 2024.

This is exactly correct.  People forget that the San Diego trade wasn't really Taylor Rogers for Emilio Pagan.  It was really Rogers for Paddack, with Pagan and Brent Rooker thrown in as filler.  They have all had quite a weird ride, but when the Twins traded for Paddack, it was pretty obvious that they thought they could unlock more in him.  That really hasn't changed in that he's still a young pitcher, but now he has more to prove.  Do I think he can hit 120-140 IP?  Maybe.  He will have an entire offseason of conditioning and he has already made his post TJ debut, so that's out of the way.  The real question will be whether the team can manipulate his time on the roster to make him last until the end of the season.  It will take a little creativity, but I think they can do it.

Also, too many are writing off Ryan and Ober as "3rd/4th/5th starters".  No.   That's what they slotted in as last year (whatever that actually means. . . ).  There is no reason that they cannot continue to develop -- Ryan pre-injury might have been the Twins best pitcher.  Then he got injured (and stupid - which he won't do again) and had to start over.  He'll be just fine going into the season and should be better.  Ober was relatively healthy last year.  If he's healthy for a second year, it will start a streak!  (Sorry, bad reference there).  It will obviously take more than 5 starters, but the foundation is there.  Add a one good rotation starter and a veteran to stash at AAA with Varland, and I think they will be just fine.  Now, to find that starter. . . .

[wabene]

18 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

1. How should innings be "vamped up"?

2. Is it a fact that a lot of Law's ideas are way off?  Or is that just your opinion stated as though it is a provable fact?

1. Maybe because he will be pitching deep into the night, bwaaaahahaha!

2. I skip national reporting because more localized reporting gives you deeper insight into your team. A national reporter can't possibly have that deep of insight into all the teams. 

[Johnny Ringo]

The number of responses here kind of made me chuckle. Paddack looked great for that flash last year but none of us have a clue what he will be in 2024. 

My guess is that around 120 innings of mid 4 ERA ball is the base case. But as the math guys would say, this comes with significant error bars.  Injury prone, 2 TJs, but all the promise in the world. 

The enthusiasm around this topic might be attributed to hot stove cabin-fever though.

Dear God. Give us something!!!!!!!!

[wabene]

13 hours ago, Beast said:

Well, he’s not wrong.  It’s malpractice to go into the year with Paddack and Varland penciled into the rotation.  It doesn’t matter what people believe or think about those two.  This is what losing poverty franchises do, rationalize however you want.

I don't think anybody is rationalizing anything, everybody thinks we need more pitching. We did just lose 40% of our starting staff.