FA Starting Pitcher Choices

[chpettit19]

I'm not a big fan of Jim Bowden (he has some takes that prove to wildly off the mark for being a former big league GM), but he just released his free agency predictions on The Athletic. It's behind a paywall so I won't put it all down here, but I wanted to take a look at the top 10 pitchers from his list (he ranked the top 40 FAs with contract predictions). 

Pitcher Rank (overall rank) Player (contract prediction)

1. (1) Shohei Ohtani (10 years, 477 mil plus incentives and escalators taking it over 500 mil- basically 50 mil/year)
2. (2) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7 years, 211 mil- 30.1 mil/year)
3. (3) Jordan Montgomery (5 years, 127 mil- 25.4 mil/year)
4. (4) Aaron Nola (5 years, 125 mil- 25 mil/year)
5. (5) Blake Snell (5 years, 122 mil- 24.4 mil/year)
6. (9) Clayton Kershaw (1 year, 22 mil- 22 mil/year)
7. (10) Sonny Gray (3 years, 64 mil- 21.3 mil/year)
8. (11) Eduardo Rodriguez (5 years, 90 mil- 18 mil/year)
9. (12) Michael Wacha (1 year, 16 mil- 16 mil/year)
10. (13) Lucas Giolito (2 years, 24 mil- 12 mil/year)

First thing I notice here is how concentrated the top of the rankings are with pitchers. I don't think that should come as a surprise to many as I think it was well known that the position players side of things was pretty shallow this year. But 10 of the top 13 guys being pitchers is a lot. And I don't think it's wrong.

Second thing is what we all love coming on here and discussing...who should the Twins target? While I think the Twins could (and should) offer Ohtani that kind of contract, I don't think anyone truly thinks he's an option for the Twins so we can skip over him. I think the next 4 are the ones the Twins should be targeting, and I think all of those contracts are doable for the Twins. I don't expect them to go after Yamamoto even if I think he'll be a star and is the youngest guy on this list by far.

To me, the Twins have a 5 year window they should be going more or less all in for as they have Buxton (even though you can't rely on him at all anymore) and Correa under contract for those 5 years, Pablo Lopez for most of it, and nearly all of their young talent under control for at least that long as well. I know people worry about "sustained success" and blocking prospects, but I think the window is open now and relying on the young guys to fill in top of the rotation or lineup spots is too risky. Pairing Lopez and one of the top 5 names on this list at the top of the rotation for the foreseeable future would be massive. Yes, injuries are always a concern for starting pitchers, but relying on Ober, Ryan, Paddack, Varland, and SWR to not only be as good as anyone on this list, but also to stay healthy as well, doesn't sound like a recipe for a World Series title to me. Locking in Lopez, FA X, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack as your rotation for the next 2 years, plus more for 4 of those guys, means you can move someone like Varland to the pen (not to start 2024, but eventually) if he can't take the next step, you can trade someone like SWR for a bat if he starts performing next year, and you can truly rely on your system for depth instead of needing it to produce stars regularly.

Signing one of those top 5 guys would be my first task to complete this offseason if I were in charge of the FO. And it'd be for 4+ years. I think getting that done means you can focus almost entirely on the offense (and pen) moving forward as you have your rotation pretty well locked up with the guys coming up in the system fighting to either push one of these guys out, or take over Paddack's spot in 2026. I know a lot of people like the Twins system, but I don't see any pitcher in there that's likely to match Lopez or anyone at the top of this list anytime soon. And if they do, great! Then you have 3 frontline guys.

I'd take Sonny back for a year (I don't expect him to be able to repeat his production this season for much longer, if at all) or Rodriguez, but those top 5 guys is what I'd like to see the Twins go after, and get. Kershaw isn't an option, and the 2 Japanese stars likely aren't realistic either. So, really, it's Montgomery, Nola, and Snell that I'd like. In that order, but I'd take any of them.

What do others think? Realistic for the Twins to get any of these guys? Who would you want? And for how long?

[DJL44]

If those are the prices I want Nola. The Twins should take Gray back for 3/$60M.

[PseudoSABR]

I think your predictions are a bit low, by 15-20%.   If the Twins could get Gray at 3/60, they should absolutely get it done.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

I think your predictions are a bit low, by 15-20%.   If the Twins could get Gray at 3/60, they should absolutely get it done.

Not my predictions, Jim Bowden's predictions. An additional 15% on the deals around 25/year would put them at nearly 29/year. 20% would put them at 30/year. There are currently 6 big league starters making 30/year. They're named Scherzer, Verlander, deGrom, Cole, Strasburg, and Ohtani. There's only 1 other pitcher making 29 (sale). Carlos Rodon signed for 27/year over 6 years last year. Beyond that there's no other starting pitcher in baseball making 25/year. You're suggesting that we'll go from 8 guys making over 25 mil to 12 in 1 offseason? That'd be a big bump. I think 25ish mil a year is probably a pretty good baseline for those guys.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If those are the prices I want Nola. The Twins should take Gray back for 3/$60M.

Do you think Gray maintains his production from 2023, most importantly his health, moving forward? I'm just not convinced he can maintain that for much longer. He's only made 30 starts in a year 1 other time since 2015. I wouldn't expect him to be able to do it more frequently as he hits his mid-30s. He's a max effort guy (even though he doesn't throw with super high velocity) so I'm just worried that you sign him for 3 years and get 1 actually good one out of him while the other guys would require longer commitments for slightly higher AAV, but likely provide you more productive years.

I won't be upset if they bring him back for something around 3/60, but I'd like to shoot for one of the guys who are more likely to have 3+ really good years left in them.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Do you think Gray maintains his production from 2023, most importantly his health, moving forward?

No, but he was worth $45M in 2023 so I like his chances to contribute $60M over the next 3 years.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

No, but he was worth $45M in 2023 so I like his chances to contribute $60M over the next 3 years.

Do you like it more than Montgomery, Nola, or Snell providing 100 mil over 5 years? 

To me, that's the question. There's no way they're signing more than 1 guy like this (chances of them even signing 1 is quite low). If you're going to give out 20+ a year to Gray why wouldn't you just add 5 more and give it to a guy who should be better for longer?

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Do you like it more than Montgomery, Nola, or Snell providing 100 mil over 5 years? 

To me, that's the question. There's no way they're signing more than 1 guy like this (chances of them even signing 1 is quite low). If you're going to give out 20+ a year to Gray why wouldn't you just add 5 more and give it to a guy who should be better for longer?

I like Nola better but the Twins will go with the guy they know. I think Snell is going to try to match Rodon's contract.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I like Nola better but the Twins will go with the guy they know. I think Snell is going to try to match Rodon's contract.

Totally fair, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if you're right on that. I wouldn't like it, though. If they're going to spend I want them to spend on the biggest gun they can get. And I don't think that's Sonny Gray, even if he's who I expect them to sign.

[nicksaviking]

I think Bowden's rankings are a bit off, but in the ballpark, which is unusual for him.

I doubt anyone has a true idea on what kind of offers Yamamoto will get.

Agree that Montgomery/Nola/Snell is the next group, but I bet it's in the opposite order, Snell/Nola/Montgomery, in terms of contracts. I also bet the Twins will not have interest in Snell due to his high BB%; that's contrary to the current pitching game plan. He's a good pitcher, but I don't think he's a fit currently. At least I bet that's how the team would see it.

That Giolito deal looks like a real high reward/low risk bargain. $12M is just a move a team does on a whim these days, that's Joey Gallo money. That would be a real easy gamble, though I'd still want someone else better/safer to go along with him. If he's looking at that kind of offer, he'd be better off doing one of those make-good one year deals with options to try to rebuild his value.

But all that said, Gray at 3/64 is probably the biggest steal. If that's the price, the Twins will work out a deal before free agency begins. I bet his AAV will be closer to 25M than 21M.

Still, as per custom, I'd expect a trade, not a free agent.

[jorgenswest]

I think the only one I would go big on is Yamamoto. I say that having never seen in pitch though. Maybe Gray at 3 years but the decline is coming,

The fit I like best is Ryu coming back from Tommy John if they can get him on a one year deal. His salary shouldn’t preclude them from pursuing Yamamoto

[Dman]

If they have a shot I like the Lefty Montgomery the best. Twins could use a Quality Lefty starter and he is only 30 so a 5 year deal should age fairly well.

I like Sonny as well and he can be signed to a 3 year deal, but it felt like he had a career year and I don't know if I trust the numbers or not.  Don't get me wrong I think he will good just not sure if what he has is enough for me,

Nola with a down year makes me worry about a decline, but I guess he has never been about velocity so likely bounces back.

I'd love to have anyone of those arms to be honest, but I just don't see the Twins having the winning bid and they seem loath to invest years in pitchers over 30.  Not sure what the stats are, but there must be something that gives them pause there.

Gray on a three year deal seems the most possible to me, but there will be heavy interest in all those arms and the high Revenue clubs usually win those battles.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, PseudoSABR said:

I think your predictions are a bit low, by 15-20%.   If the Twins could get Gray at 3/60, they should absolutely get it done.

Agreed but seemds very unlikely. Chris Bassitt got 3 years/$63m last year with stats very similar to Gray. Bassitt got that for his ages 34-36 seasons, exactly where Gray is now. You gotta think Gray will get or exceed that contract a year later after the best year of his career. I think Gray gets at least 3 years/$65-70m and might get 4 years at that same AAV, 4 years/90-100m. At 3 years $68m or less, I vote for signing him. At 4 years, no.   

I'd rather pony up as much as 5 years/130m for Jordan Montgomery. As good or better than Gray, younger, and playoff tested. Still I don't expect the Twins to think they have the resources to do that. I actually expect Montgomery to wind up on the Dodgers. So with that, I'm back to keep Gray at 3 years/$65-68m if you can. 

[tony&rodney]

We will find out soon enough but the money for the top FAs seems low. I read The Athletic and only skimmed the article. Bowden is mostly a waste of time. I believe a trade is more likely. For those who do not get The Athletic, the list does provide some context of value, so good post.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

We will find out soon enough but the money for the top FAs seems low. I read The Athletic and only skimmed the article. Bowden is mostly a waste of time. I believe a trade is more likely. For those who do not get The Athletic, the list does provide some context of value, so good post.

If any of those top 5 guys get the money projected there they immediately move into the top 10 in AAV amongst starting pitchers in baseball. I don't think that seems low. Are Montgomery, Nola, and Snell top 10 pitchers in baseball? I don't think anyone would argue that they were coming into this year. I don't know how many would argue they are moving forward either. The nature of pro sports is that each year the contracts go up some, but, by AAV those numbers eclipse Stroman, Ray, Gausman, Castillo, Bassitt, Musgrove, Morton, Perez, Lynn, Berrios, Mikolas, Lopez, Darvish, and Webb who all signed within the last 2 years. I think 25/year is probably pretty accurate to what these guys can get. Only 8 starting pitchers in baseball make 25/year right now.

Yeah, not a big Bowden fan, but I think his numbers are probably pretty close here, as far as AAV goes. They'll likely all ask for as many years as they can get, but the AAVs are awfully close I think.

Edited October 31, 2023 by chpettit19

[Doctor Wu]

My first choice would be to go after Nola, but I don't think he or any of the other top tier pitchers would end up with the Twins. Targeting someone like Eduardo Rodriguez is more realistic. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The beauty of free agent pitching is that it just costs money, and not a bunch of players/prospects.  The downside is that often that money is grossly inflated and you wind up paying for what someone did in the past instead of what they will do in the future, without regard to injury.  I cannot fathom a world in which Ohtani is going to be worth $50M a season when his pitching is no sure thing for recovery and Yamamoto, whose resume is so difficult to evaluate, is worth $200M+ either.  That being said, I think that the rest of the top end of this scale (Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery, et al.) is also a pretty big overpay.  I don't like Sonny Gray's age, but at a three year commitment, seems like one of the better buys on the list -- others may also think so and run up the price!  I do think that Eduardo Rodriguez might also be an OK buy, plus he's left handed.  In the not quite, but almost, bargain bin, I do like Lucas Giolito on a short contract.  He would be a low/medium risk but high reward candidate. 

Unless you want to pay really big bucks, there isn't that much out there in this class.  Time for a trade. 

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Eduardo Rodriguez at $18M/year seems like a bargain. Boston offered him a QO in '21, so the team acquiring him won't have to worry about losing a draft pick. He had that weird finger pulley injury in the middle of the year, but he still eats innings (averaged 5.87 IP per start last year, better than Sonny Gray) and does not rely on velocity- he should age better than, say, Blake Snell. 

$18M APY puts him around Taijuan Walker, James Taillon, Adam Wainwright, Martin Perez, Yu Darvish, Miles Mikolas, Nathan Eovaldi, and Charlie Morton in terms of deals signed last offseason. The only guy on that list who I'd rather have is Eovaldi. Even if the contract goes underwater after year 3, $18M in the 2026 market is going to be around the $14M APY mark today, which is not a lot of money for a veteran starter.

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The beauty of free agent pitching is that it just costs money, and not a bunch of players/prospects.  The downside is that often that money is grossly inflated and you wind up paying for what someone did in the past instead of what they will do in the future, without regard to injury.  I cannot fathom a world in which Ohtani is going to be worth $50M a season when his pitching is no sure thing for recovery and Yamamoto, whose resume is so difficult to evaluate, is worth $200M+ either.  That being said, I think that the rest of the top end of this scale (Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery, et al.) is also a pretty big overpay.  I don't like Sonny Gray's age, but at a three year commitment, seems like one of the better buys on the list -- others may also think so and run up the price!  I do think that Eduardo Rodriguez might also be an OK buy, plus he's left handed.  In the not quite, but almost, bargain bin, I do like Lucas Giolito on a short contract.  He would be a low/medium risk but high reward candidate. 

Unless you want to pay really big bucks, there isn't that much out there in this class.  Time for a trade. 

"Worth" is a pretty loaded word, I think. Shohei's offense alone this year was "worth" $53 million according to Fangraph's WAR, while his pitching was worth $19 million. I think it's a pretty safe bet that Shohei gets back to a pretty darn good pitcher. TJ just doesn't change pitchers like it used to, and he's about as hard a worker as you can find. He'll only be 30 when he starts pitching again. I think 50 a year for him is likely a steal for the next 5 years. End of the deal could get ugly, but his swing is so simple to start with I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him still be worth quite a bit towards the end of the deal, too. It's a massive gamble, and I don't expect the Twins to even put a bid in on him, but I'd rather bet on Ohtani til he's 39 than guys like Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado who just got paid until they're 40. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are making 43 a year as 40 year olds.

[1985Fan]

I don’t think Twins FO will change MO and sign FA pitchers to long term contracts. The risk of injury and age related performance decline is too high for Twins-sized payroll. 
I think this FO was brought in to establish a pitching pipeline for the current and future. If they deviate from that now and go all in on FA, that screams failure and these guys don’t admit failure. I actually agree with their strategy. I like Varland to take the next step and Festa has front line stuff. The Rays have gone with young pitching devolpment and it has worked well for them. I think FA pitchers are overpriced with too much risk. Stick with developing the pipeline. 
 

 

[Major League Ready]

37 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

"Worth" is a pretty loaded word, I think. Shohei's offense alone this year was "worth" $53 million according to Fangraph's WAR, while his pitching was worth $19 million. I think it's a pretty safe bet that Shohei gets back to a pretty darn good pitcher. TJ just doesn't change pitchers like it used to, and he's about as hard a worker as you can find. He'll only be 30 when he starts pitching again. I think 50 a year for him is likely a steal for the next 5 years. End of the deal could get ugly, but his swing is so simple to start with I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him still be worth quite a bit towards the end of the deal, too. It's a massive gamble, and I don't expect the Twins to even put a bid in on him, but I'd rather bet on Ohtani til he's 39 than guys like Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado who just got paid until they're 40. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are making 43 a year as 40 year olds.

When you say "Fangraph's worth", is this meant to convey a value measure or is a calculation of the average cost of 1 WAR?

[chpettit19]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

When you say "Fangraph's worth", is this meant to convey a value measure or is a calculation of the average cost of 1 WAR?

Basically their WARx8 million to represent the average cost of 1 WAR on the open market.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The beauty of free agent pitching is that it just costs money, and not a bunch of players/prospects.  The downside is that often that money is grossly inflated and you wind up paying for what someone did in the past instead of what they will do in the future, without regard to injury.  I cannot fathom a world in which Ohtani is going to be worth $50M a season when his pitching is no sure thing for recovery and Yamamoto, whose resume is so difficult to evaluate, is worth $200M+ either.  That being said, I think that the rest of the top end of this scale (Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery, et al.) is also a pretty big overpay.  I don't like Sonny Gray's age, but at a three year commitment, seems like one of the better buys on the list -- others may also think so and run up the price!  I do think that Eduardo Rodriguez might also be an OK buy, plus he's left handed.  In the not quite, but almost, bargain bin, I do like Lucas Giolito on a short contract.  He would be a low/medium risk but high reward candidate. 

Unless you want to pay really big bucks, there isn't that much out there in this class.  Time for a trade. 

NPB pitchers are going to continue to get massive deals until they prove that they are not worth it. Darvish, Ohtani, Maeda, Kikuchi, Senga, and Fujinami are the only active former NPB pitchers, and it's hard to make a case that any one of them doesn't deserve their contract. Tanaka, Uehara, Tazawa, Iwakuma, and Matsuzaka were all great success stories- the NPB to MLB transition has been done countless times, and Yamamoto may very well be the best pure pitching prospect we've seen from Japan. Yamamoto is worth $25-$35M, easy.

I don't know what year you are living in, but veteran pitchers who will give 150+ innings of ~3.50 ERA ball are easily worth +$20M APY. Hard to imagine why a (probably) two-time Cy Young winner heading into his age 31 season is not worth $25-30M. Also hard to imagine why a (probably) two-time MVP and the best player in baseball, who pitches and hits like a top-10 player, is not worth the richest contract in league history.

[1985Fan]

23 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

NPB pitchers are going to continue to get massive deals until they prove that they are not worth it. Darvish, Ohtani, Maeda, Kikuchi, Senga, and Fujinami are the only active former NPB pitchers, and it's hard to make a case that any one of them doesn't deserve their contract. Tanaka, Uehara, Tazawa, Iwakuma, and Matsuzaka were all great success stories- the NPB to MLB transition has been done countless times, and Yamamoto may very well be the best pure pitching prospect we've seen from Japan. Yamamoto is worth $25-$35M, easy.

I don't know what year you are living in, but veteran pitchers who will give 150+ innings of ~3.50 ERA ball are easily worth +$20M APY. Hard to imagine why a (probably) two-time Cy Young winner heading into his age 31 season is not worth $25-30M. Also hard to imagine why a (probably) two-time MVP and the best player in baseball, who pitches and hits like a top-10 player, is not worth the richest contract in league history.

Does it make sense to tie up one third of your payroll in one player? Yes, Ohtani may be “worth” that much, but he can’t win it all by himself, even though he pitches and hits. That’s why he’s leaving the Angels. Even Moreno can’t spend enough money to surround him with a supporting cast. If you added him to Correa salary, it consumes >50% of Twins payroll. Not to mention 2024 Twins payroll will be less with the loss of TV contract. I doubt Falvey wants to duplicate the colossal payroll mistakes of the Angels or Mets. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, 1985Fan said:

Does it make sense to tie up one third of your payroll in one player? Yes, Ohtani may be “worth” that much, but he can’t win it all by himself, even though he pitches and hits. That’s why he’s leaving the Angels. Even Moreno can’t spend enough money to surround him with a supporting cast. If you added him to Correa salary, it consumes >50% of Twins payroll. Not to mention 2024 Twins payroll will be less with the loss of TV contract. I doubt Falvey wants to duplicate the colossal payroll mistakes of the Angels or Mets. 

But Falvey may want to duplicate the colossal payroll success of the Rangers. Or Dodgers. Or Astros. Signing high priced free agents isn't a problem if you have cheap, young talent from your system on pre-arb and arb deals. The Angels and Mets didn't fail because they spent, they failed because they didn't develop.

The Rangers are 1 win away from a World Series title while handing out $685 million on 3 players in free agency the last 2 years. They gave another $132.75 million to 4 other free agents. That's $817.75 million guaranteed that they handed out in free agent deals in a 2 year time span. Then they traded for Max Scherzer. Not including Scherzer, they handed out over $140 million/year to 7 guys (Seager, deGrom, Semien, Gray, Eovaldi, Heaney, and Leclerc). They pay out $101 million to deGrom (40), Seager (35.5), and Semien (26) in one year alone. deGrom made 6 starts (30.1 innings) for them for $40 million, and they're still about to win the World Series. 6 of those 7 guys are a big reason why. But Garcia, Jung, Carter, Lowe, Heim, etc. on pre-arb and arb deals stepping in and carrying weight as well is just as big, if not bigger, because it means they don't need to spend any more to win. High priced contracts only kill you if you can't back them up with low cost, good players.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

"Worth" is a pretty loaded word, I think. Shohei's offense alone this year was "worth" $53 million according to Fangraph's WAR, while his pitching was worth $19 million. I think it's a pretty safe bet that Shohei gets back to a pretty darn good pitcher. TJ just doesn't change pitchers like it used to, and he's about as hard a worker as you can find. He'll only be 30 when he starts pitching again. I think 50 a year for him is likely a steal for the next 5 years. End of the deal could get ugly, but his swing is so simple to start with I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him still be worth quite a bit towards the end of the deal, too. It's a massive gamble, and I don't expect the Twins to even put a bid in on him, but I'd rather bet on Ohtani til he's 39 than guys like Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado who just got paid until they're 40. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are making 43 a year as 40 year olds.

You're right about worth being a loaded word.  You might be right that $50M for the next five years could be a good deal as per the open market, but I also think that you are right in that the final five could get scary, especially for a mid-market payroll team like the Twins.  It's just a LOT of money to have tied up in one player and there are no sure things out there.  I would prefer to take a chance on someone for less money who isn't coming off of an injury.  Maybe that makes me risk averse, but I think the Twins are also a little risk averse as well.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

I don't know what year you are living in, but veteran pitchers who will give 150+ innings of ~3.50 ERA ball are easily worth +$20M APY. Hard to imagine why a (probably) two-time Cy Young winner heading into his age 31 season is not worth $25-30M. Also hard to imagine why a (probably) two-time MVP and the best player in baseball, who pitches and hits like a top-10 player, is not worth the richest contract in league history.

I think that Blake Snell is not worth that because he has only pitched 150+ innings of 3.50 ERA ball twice in his career -- in 2018, his Cy Young year and this year, likely another Cy Young year.  Outside of that he doesn't manage that many innings and even though he strikes out a lot of guys he also walks a ton of guys.  I don't think it's impossible that he could be good again, but I also think it's possible that he turns back into a $25-30M pumpkin, which would be tough on the payroll situation for a team like the Twins.  If you are shopping in that market, you are expecting better consistency.

As to Ohtani, he may be worth it, but I don't think that the Twins can or should devote that much of their payroll to one guy.  He's great, no question, but he's injured right now and not a sure thing.  $50M per year needs to be a sure thing for me to bite. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

NPB pitchers are going to continue to get massive deals until they prove that they are not worth it. Darvish, Ohtani, Maeda, Kikuchi, Senga, and Fujinami are the only active former NPB pitchers, and it's hard to make a case that any one of them doesn't deserve their contract. Tanaka, Uehara, Tazawa, Iwakuma, and Matsuzaka were all great success stories- the NPB to MLB transition has been done countless times, and Yamamoto may very well be the best pure pitching prospect we've seen from Japan. Yamamoto is worth $25-$35M, easy.

You may be right on Yamamoto.  It's just hard to know for sure until you see them in the same league.  Maybe I'm biased because of the position player side of things (Nishioka), but it's a lot of unknown to take up for $200M+.  Is the posting fee capped these days at like $20M or something like that?

[chpettit19]

39 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

You're right about worth being a loaded word.  You might be right that $50M for the next five years could be a good deal as per the open market, but I also think that you are right in that the final five could get scary, especially for a mid-market payroll team like the Twins.  It's just a LOT of money to have tied up in one player and there are no sure things out there.  I would prefer to take a chance on someone for less money who isn't coming off of an injury.  Maybe that makes me risk averse, but I think the Twins are also a little risk averse as well.

Oh, I definitely don't expect the Twins to go after Ohtani. I'd argue that not paying for elite talent is a risk as well, though. Assuming the goal is to win championships. You need elite talent to win. Expecting to get multiple elite talents out of your system all at the same time is just as big a risk as paying for some expensive players. 

Not wanting to pay big money for elite talent is mostly because you want to be able to pay other talent, right? That's the general argument people make. You can't pay Ohtani because then how are you going to pay other guys to win with him? Isn't there risk in waiting for someone else to be worth that money? Like I said, I don't expect them to go after Ohtani, but I think this is the time to make a splash. I don't blame people for being risk averse in terms of not wanting to do the big money thing, but I think if there was ever a time to do it now is that time.

They have Correa, Buxton, and Lopez locked up for 4 or 5 years each. Now Buxton may be lost money at this point, but I'm just trying to lay out the situation. They have Vazquez for 2 more years. Kepler for 1, and Polanco for 2. Those are the only guys making real money right now, right? Ryan, Ober, Lewis, Julien, Lee, Kirilloff, Wallner, Martin, and so on are the guys everyone wants to build around, and have money to pay, right? Those guys are all at various spots between not even being on the 40-man today and pre-arbitration if I'm not mistaken. That means you have them all under control, for well under market rates, for 3-6+ years. I don't think anyone would argue that anyone I just named has any shot at being as good as Ohtani over the next 5 years. After those 5 years when he likely starts to decline, you have all the guys currently making big money off the books and Ohtani's contract isn't even filling every dollar you make up with losing them. Basically losing Correa, Buxton, and Vazquez from your roster covers Ohtani's deal in 5 years. Kepler, Polanco, and Lopez coming off the books over the next 4 covers any increase to the arbitration numbers from the young guys we're all excited for. And then you continue to backfill with pre-arb young players to sustain your success. 

I don't see a ton of risk in the Twins making another big signing right now. The risk would be that you picked the wrong free agent so you can't sign another one later on to make up for them. The Twins new young core is here. They're always going to be the key to sustained success, but by having so many young guys it provides you a 5 year window to go big on free agents to surround them with while also giving you 5 more years until you need to replace a whole bunch of young guys instead of just 1 or 2 here and there. I don't expect Ohtani, but their window is now. If not now, when? When are they going to be better set with young talent all arriving at the same time with a natural window to go big?

The Rangers are on the brink of a championship because they saw their system about to produce a number of good players and they went out and spent money on stars to support that. Why can't the Twins do the same thing?

[1985Fan]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh, I definitely don't expect the Twins to go after Ohtani. I'd argue that not paying for elite talent is a risk as well, though. Assuming the goal is to win championships. You need elite talent to win. Expecting to get multiple elite talents out of your system all at the same time is just as big a risk as paying for some expensive players. 

Not wanting to pay big money for elite talent is mostly because you want to be able to pay other talent, right? That's the general argument people make. You can't pay Ohtani because then how are you going to pay other guys to win with him? Isn't there risk in waiting for someone else to be worth that money? Like I said, I don't expect them to go after Ohtani, but I think this is the time to make a splash. I don't blame people for being risk averse in terms of not wanting to do the big money thing, but I think if there was ever a time to do it now is that time.

They have Correa, Buxton, and Lopez locked up for 4 or 5 years each. Now Buxton may be lost money at this point, but I'm just trying to lay out the situation. They have Vazquez for 2 more years. Kepler for 1, and Polanco for 2. Those are the only guys making real money right now, right? Ryan, Ober, Lewis, Julien, Lee, Kirilloff, Wallner, Martin, and so on are the guys everyone wants to build around, and have money to pay, right? Those guys are all at various spots between not even being on the 40-man today and pre-arbitration if I'm not mistaken. That means you have them all under control, for well under market rates, for 3-6+ years. I don't think anyone would argue that anyone I just named has any shot at being as good as Ohtani over the next 5 years. After those 5 years when he likely starts to decline, you have all the guys currently making big money off the books and Ohtani's contract isn't even filling every dollar you make up with losing them. Basically losing Correa, Buxton, and Vazquez from your roster covers Ohtani's deal in 5 years. Kepler, Polanco, and Lopez coming off the books over the next 4 covers any increase to the arbitration numbers from the young guys we're all excited for. And then you continue to backfill with pre-arb young players to sustain your success. 

I don't see a ton of risk in the Twins making another big signing right now. The risk would be that you picked the wrong free agent so you can't sign another one later on to make up for them. The Twins new young core is here. They're always going to be the key to sustained success, but by having so many young guys it provides you a 5 year window to go big on free agents to surround them with while also giving you 5 more years until you need to replace a whole bunch of young guys instead of just 1 or 2 here and there. I don't expect Ohtani, but their window is now. If not now, when? When are they going to be better set with young talent all arriving at the same time with a natural window to go big?

The Rangers are on the brink of a championship because they saw their system about to produce a number of good players and they went out and spent money on stars to support that. Why can't the Twins do the same thing?

Rangers have $251M payroll. Well above Twins level. Twins will probably reduce payroll this year to account for lost local TV revenue. They are at $88M in committed money now. Ohtani alone doesn’t fit, let alone adding a starter, or adding an arm or two to the pen.