Brooks Lee's Anticipation Grows for His Moment in 2024

[Jocko87]

46 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 

I actually don't think Farmer (or Gordon) have anything to do with Lee getting his shot in the majors. They're not going to give him a backup role. He won't get his shot until he's got a starting spot to step into. Lewis, Correa, Julien, and Polanco are the guys Lee has to beat out. I don't see any chance of that happening on opening day unless there's an injury or 2. They want Lee getting everyday ABs, and he won't be in the bigs until there's an everyday job open for him. He's not taking Farmer or Gordon's jobs, but they're also not blocking him in any way. If one of them go down Lee wouldn't be the callup for them. Lee just has to prove he's ready for his shot, and wait for a starting job to come open.

Agreed, but the roster and 40 man spot has to come from somewhere. Lots of moves still to come but Farmer, Miranda and Castro are in line in front of him as well as the main 4. We probably even see Severino first with Gordon completely froze out. I would agree that they won't want him on the bench which is why I don't think we see him until late summer at best with a settled spot in 25.

[DocBauer]

42 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

There's more one reason (other than finances) - if you think Polanco's body has too many miles on it and he will keep getting injured. I believe the injuries have really affected his defense as he doesn't look the same, even at 2B. You might be able to trade for a decent pitcher now but not get anything for him if he goes down for 60 games again in 2024. Not sure the Twins even know this answer so it's a guessing game whether he will keep getting injured.

Granted. I sure wouldn't pencil him in for 160 games, that's for sure. But sharing 2B with Julien...possibly Farmer depending on $ and final roster construction...and appearing at DH and maybe some 1B let's him "rest" his legs a bit. A healthy or semi healthy Polonco is a great ballplayer. And I'd rather pick up the option and take a little more time with Lee than just move on.

He's definitely got miles on him. He might be 30yo but I think his legs are about 4-5yrs older. But I think there's still some tread left on him. Of course, someone like Seattle might agree and want to package a solid arm back to us for him. If so, you gotta think about that. 

[RpR]

33 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Lewis' minor league fielding percentage was .956, Correa's was .968 and Arraez's was .983. What's your point?

Correa and Arraez have zero to do with this.

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, RpR said:

Correa and Arraez have zero to do with this.

I'm pretty sure the point is that simply looking at minor league fielding percentages isn't really telling you enough to decide if someone is a good fielder or not.

[RpR]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm pretty sure the point is that simply looking at minor league fielding percentages isn't really telling you enough to decide if someone is a good fielder or not.

Juline has poor fielding skills, just as his Minor league showed; Lee is worse.

[Linus]

I’m excited to have Lees bat in the lineup as he looks to be a well rounded hitter. However there is no chance he breaks spring training with the Twins and I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t debut until 2025. 

[chpettit19]

17 hours ago, RpR said:

Juline has poor fielding skills, just as his Minor league showed; Lee is worse.

I understand the point you're trying to make, but that's why the other poster showed you other players fielding percentages. Arraez had better minor league fielding numbers than Correa, would you argue Arraez is better than Correa at fielding? Arraez had better minor league fielding numbers than Lewis, would you argue Arraez is better than Lewis at fielding? Nobody would honestly make those arguments.

Have you ever watched Brooks Lee field? He's not Correa, but he's certainly a more natural fielder than Julien. Pointing to their fielding percentages doesn't just automatically equal Lee is a worse fielder than Julien. Just like it doesn't make Arraez better than Correa or Lewis.

[tony&rodney]

I wonder if people on TD have strong opinions on who among either Julien or Lee is a better choice long term at second base. Is there room for both? Alex Kirilloff is at first base and Byron Buxton is a CF/DH. The Twins are unlikely to use Julien long term as a DH. Maybe a poll would be appropriate, maybe not. I'm not sure how folks come to putting those out.

[Fatbat]

@FlyingFinn @DocBauer @chpettit19 as much as I want to see polo at 2nd, he is getting old and wont play more than 80-100 games there in 2024. Is AK gonna be full go opening day? IDK so if the best infield includes AK, Julien, C4, Lewis, Polo, Lee.  You have 6 guys filling up 4 spots, 5 with the rotating DH.  Buxton will either be in CF or on the IL. because thats where he belongs.  So now you have Buck, Castro, Wallner, Kepler in the outfield. 2 catchers. Is there still room for Farmer? IDK. 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

@FlyingFinn @DocBauer @chpettit19 as much as I want to see polo at 2nd, he is getting old and wont play more than 80-100 games there in 2024. Is AK gonna be full go opening day? IDK so if the best infield includes AK, Julien, C4, Lewis, Polo, Lee.  You have 6 guys filling up 4 spots, 5 with the rotating DH.  Buxton will either be in CF or on the IL. because thats where he belongs.  So now you have Buck, Castro, Wallner, Kepler in the outfield. 2 catchers. Is there still room for Farmer? IDK. 

They are not going to keep Lee as the backup to all those guys. They will not call him up for a non-everyday role. They just won't. That's why they sent Julien and Wallner back down this year. It's why they sent Lewis down last year. Top prospects don't get backup roles because that's not how you develop prospects. It's either an everyday job or he's in AAA. Brooks Lee is not taking over Farmer's role.

[RpR]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I understand the point you're trying to make, but that's why the other poster showed you other players fielding percentages. Arraez had better minor league fielding numbers than Correa, would you argue Arraez is better than Correa at fielding? Arraez had better minor league fielding numbers than Lewis, would you argue Arraez is better than Correa at fielding? Nobody would honestly make those arguments.

Have you ever watched Brooks Lee field? He's not Correa, but he's certainly a more natural fielder than Julien. Pointing to their fielding percentages doesn't just automatically equal Lee is a worse fielder than Julien. Just like it doesn't make Arraez better than Correa or Lewis.

It means he should spend another year in AAA to learn more.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

@FlyingFinn @DocBauer @chpettit19 as much as I want to see polo at 2nd, he is getting old and wont play more than 80-100 games there in 2024. Is AK gonna be full go opening day? IDK so if the best infield includes AK, Julien, C4, Lewis, Polo, Lee.  You have 6 guys filling up 4 spots, 5 with the rotating DH.  Buxton will either be in CF or on the IL. because thats where he belongs.  So now you have Buck, Castro, Wallner, Kepler in the outfield. 2 catchers. Is there still room for Farmer? IDK. 

I understand hope and misgivings concerning Polanco. But while his debut was slowed in 2023, his quad slash line was right about career norms across the board. There's life there, no doubt. Again, the question might be does he STAY with the Twins, or does someone really value him for their hole at 2B. 

To echo chpettit19, Lee won't sit on the bench and back anyone up. If he's not playing almost daily, he'll be at St Paul. That leaves room for Farmer at around $6M, which is pricey, but could be smart. He backs up Correa well...though Lewis and Castro and Polanco can as well...and can start at 2B against LH arms with Polanco spelling Kirilloff at 1B. Polanco can also DH once in a while.

Now, whether or not the Twins can afford Farmer for one more season is TBD, but I'd sure like to see him back. Lee will force his way on the roster eventually, and/or, there will be injuries to provide opportunity.  And say he's fully ready mid year, the Twins might have a trade chip or two to send out.

But let's not pretend the Twins haven't had more than their share of bad luck with injuries. Lee is no reserve, he's a top prospect. But it's nice to have that kind of depth available. Same with, possibly, Prato. And I can see a scenario where Polanco sort of assumes the roll that Solano played this past season, only as a switch hitter. And we've got another switch hitter at AAA in Severino that might end up as an OK defender at 3 spots, but a powerful bat. Maybe not to open the season, but eventually. 

So there IS a lot of flexibility now, and in the near future. I just don't feel any need to rush Lee to the ML club, no matter how much potential, when we have some great options to begin the season with. Oh, shoot, did we forget there's a chance a healthy Miranda rebounds?

So no to Lee as a reserve. Yes to room for Farmer if the budget can keep him for one more year. 

I'll save the OF for another day, but they obviously need a contingency plan for Buxton. The question will be a veteran like Taylor until Martin is ready, or, budget concerns that have them gamble on Martin or Keirsey, etc, early. And while this OP is about Lee, let's not forget that we could almost change the headline to MARTIN instead of LEE, and have almost the identical debate about roster construction.

 

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

As I have stated in different areas... time to move off of Polanco and either trade or buy out of his option and let Lee take over at 2B. Julian at DH and an occasional start makes this team better. 

I think Eddie plays 2B through June & then Lee comes up for 2nd half after 200 AB’s in AAA. Also, they have to target his defense for at least a month, where they want him to play, 2B or 3B.

I think they’ll pick up Polanco and trade him with a couple other guys that have some control. We have too many other options in the infield & his lingering lack of availability isn’t worth the risk of counting on him on the roster.

 

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'm as excited for Lee as any prospect the Twins have had in many years. But by no means am I giving away Polanco. Unless you are 100% certain that Lee can outproduce Polanco even on opening day, then there is no rush to have to make a change this offseason right? I mean, if you get a GREAT offer for Polanco via trade, then you take it (as you would for any player.) But buying out Polanco, that should not be ANY part of the thought process for a team that wants to win.

103 games & .235BA in ‘22 …….. 80 games & .255BA in ‘23 for Polanco. Career .270 hitter - productivity fall-off and nagging injuries have become the norm. Has been a good player & still has talent - IMO, time to move on while there’s still some real value!

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

My hot off-season take is that Farmer is the most important non-obvious guy they could bring back including center fielders.  (Polo, Kep and Castro are my obvious choices) Plays all the infield spots well, can function in the corner outfield, emergency catcher, hits right handed and can be a good sub on both offense and defense.  He is the perfect veteran fill in player for this roster and would get in 130 games.  Miranda gets first shot at Solanos spot.

Most of these are things that Brooks could do as well and that makes Farmer the guy Brooks has to beat out.  After watching the rookies have to beat the door down this year I can't see a situation where they just hand this spot to Lee, especially on a contending team.  Might be a different discussion around the trade deadline but I just can't see it out of camp. 

I think Polo gets picked up & then moved with a couple controllable guys.

Also, I think Solano gets first shot at Miranda’s spot!

Lee in early July is realistic.

[Hashim]

20 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

As I have stated in different areas... time to move off of Polanco and either trade or buy out of his option and let Lee take over at 2B. Julian at DH and an occasional start makes this team better. 

I would rather move on from Kepler, Polanco was huge in the Playoffs. Kepler was terrible in the first half and playoffs. 

[jmlease1]

I think people need to realistic about how many roster spots are out there for this team. Right now (assuming Kepler & Polanco's options are picked up, which WILL happen and none of the free agents are back) we're looking at position players being: Jeffers, Vazquez, Kirilloff, Julien, Polanco, Correa, Farmer, Lewis, Castro, Wallner, Buxton, and Kepler. That leaves 1 spot on the 26-man roster (we know they are planning a 13/13 split between position players and pitchers) for another position player, and it sure looks like they need another OF. Not a lot of room for Lee unless Polanco is traded and someone gets hurt.

People keep mentioning the "Solano role": right now, there is no spot for a Solano on this roster; it's being filled by Julien already.

[Cory Engelhardt]

11 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

103 games & .235BA in ‘22 …….. 80 games & .255BA in ‘23 for Polanco. Career .270 hitter - productivity fall-off and nagging injuries have become the norm. Has been a good player & still has talent - IMO, time to move on while there’s still some real value!

Agreed in the sense that buying him out and just moving on is not an option. Not at all. If they do actually get real value for him, then I can get behind that.

[specialiststeve]

3 hours ago, Hashim said:

I would rather move on from Kepler, Polanco was huge in the Playoffs. Kepler was terrible in the first half and playoffs. 

Both are had a good .. not great year... are on the last year of their contract and likely have a market we could get decent return on. Meanwhile we have comparable player (s) who need the opportunity and are MUCH cheaper. I do believe this will happen. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, specialiststeve said:

Both are had a good .. not great year... are on the last year of their contract and likely have a market we could get decent return on. Meanwhile we have comparable player (s) who need the opportunity and are MUCH cheaper. I do believe this will happen. 

Polanco has 2 years left, fyi.

[Riverbrian]

If you consider that the first of two club options for Polanco will cost 10.5 million next year and the 2nd club option will cost 12 million the following year if they choose to pick it up.  

And if you consider that Farmer will cost an estimated 6.6 million next year in his final year of arbitration before being eligible for free agency after the 2024 season. 

If you consider that both are significant money on the books next year. 

If you consider that BTV estimates Polanco's trade value at 4m and Farmer at 1.6m so neither player is going to return much in a trade by themselves. 

If you consider that Polanco is the better offensive player between the two. 

Why are those focused on moving Polanco not focused on moving Farmer instead to make room so we can rush Lee up?

Are we taking the lesser player just to backup SS?

Are we taking the lesser player because Polanco would block Julien or vice versa?

Are we taking the lesser player to clear cash and a roster spot if so after 6.6 million for the roster spot is 3.9 million dollars extra? 

IMO... The team is better with Correa, Lewis, Julien and Polanco on the same roster than it is with Correa, Lewis, Julien and Farmer. Once you commit to 6.6 million for a single roster spot you are already committing significant money for that roster spot. For 3.9 million... I'll take the better player. 

IMO... I believe there is a high probability that someone or someones on the current 26 man roster will be dealt but that will depend on the team you are trading with that are willing to give up something significant and who they want in return. 

Lee will be waiting in the wings getting ready for his time in the sun.       

 

 

[Fatbat]

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

They are not going to keep Lee as the backup to all those guys. They will not call him up for a non-everyday role. They just won't. That's why they sent Julien and Wallner back down this year. It's why they sent Lewis down last year. Top prospects don't get backup roles because that's not how you develop prospects. It's either an everyday job or he's in AAA. Brooks Lee is not taking over Farmer's role.

I never said Lee would be a back up infielder. He will probably be starting at 2nd, platooning at SS with C4 and 3rd with Lewis if he can handle it. If his bat plays in MLB, he will be in the lineup for 120+ games. His defense will get better with age. Juliens D is better now than it was a year ago.  Bat first prospects generally get an early chance at the varsity. Polanco played his first game at 20yo but wasn’t a regular until he was 22. A lot of people on here think that development is best in the minors, thats not always the case. He already has tools to beat out Polo and Julien for a starting spot. 

[chpettit19]

46 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I never said Lee would be a back up infielder. He will probably be starting at 2nd, platooning at SS with C4 and 3rd with Lewis if he can handle it. If his bat plays in MLB, he will be in the lineup for 120+ games. His defense will get better with age. Juliens D is better now than it was a year ago.  Bat first prospects generally get an early chance at the varsity. Polanco played his first game at 20yo but wasn’t a regular until he was 22. A lot of people on here think that development is best in the minors, thats not always the case. He already has tools to beat out Polo and Julien for a starting spot. 

Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree that Lee is ready to beat out Polanco and Julien for a starting spot. I love the enthusiasm, but that's selling Polanco and Julien way short. Julien OPSed .839 in 109 games in the majors (130 OPS+). Brooks Lee OPSed .808 in the minors, including a .731 OPS in AAA. Julien beat him by 100 points of OPS while in the majors and Lee in the minors. They're not giving Lee the 2B job over Julien.

Polanco had a .789 OPS in the majors to Lee's .731 in AAA. He had a 115 OPS+. It wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world for Brooks to OPS just under .800 as a rookie, but you're not assuming he's going to do that after OPSing .731 in AAA and handing him a starting spot over Polanco.

Development is best done at the highest level you can get the most ABs. For Brooks Lee at the start of 2024 (with the current makeup of the roster) that level is AAA. Using Polanco's early MLB career doesn't work when arguing for Lee to get an opening day roster spot. Polanco played 9 combined games, and had 20 combined plate appearances, in his age 20 and 21 seasons. He was up for 3 emergency stints, not because they were trying to develop him that way. They didn't do that because they thought it was best for Polanco, they did it because he was the last man standing on the 40-man for those spots. 

[specialiststeve]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Polanco has 2 years left, fyi.

More reason to move him. Would make him very valuable on the market with teams knowing there is a club option and very manageable buyout. Thanks for the correction... 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

He already has tools to beat out Polo and Julien for a starting spot. 

How do you come to that conclusion? I like pretty much everything about Brooks Lee, but a side by side comparison of Lee and Julien at Wichita and St. Paul is pretty close, all things considered. Perhaps Julien gains the slight nod based on AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Also, Polanco is still better than either Julien or Lee (who has not played MLB), although Jorge is admittedly on a bit of a decline. I'm thinking Brooks Lee will be a strong regular in the major leagues, but he isn't there yet and the players above him are better at this time. Perhaps the Twins trade Polanco and'or Julien to clear a path for Ll. We shall see.

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I think people need to realistic about how many roster spots are out there for this team. Right now (assuming Kepler & Polanco's options are picked up, which WILL happen and none of the free agents are back) we're looking at position players being: Jeffers, Vazquez, Kirilloff, Julien, Polanco, Correa, Farmer, Lewis, Castro, Wallner, Buxton, and Kepler. That leaves 1 spot on the 26-man roster (we know they are planning a 13/13 split between position players and pitchers) for another position player, and it sure looks like they need another OF. Not a lot of room for Lee unless Polanco is traded and someone gets hurt.

People keep mentioning the "Solano role": right now, there is no spot for a Solano on this roster; it's being filled by Julien already.

I agree. Who is the 5th outfielder and IF AK isn't ready for April, who fills 1st? IF healthy, will AK be used in the corner OF if necessary?  Lots of questions to be answered by 4/1.

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

More reason to move him. Would make him very valuable on the market with teams knowing there is a club option and very manageable buyout. Thanks for the correction... 

I wouldn't move him just to move him, but if they can find a suitable return I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's moved. All comes down to what they can get back for him.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

If you consider that the first of two club options for Polanco will cost 10.5 million next year and the 2nd club option will cost 12 million the following year if they choose to pick it up.  

And if you consider that Farmer will cost an estimated 6.6 million next year in his final year of arbitration before being eligible for free agency after the 2024 season. 

If you consider that both are significant money on the books next year. 

If you consider that BTV estimates Polanco's trade value at 4m and Farmer at 1.6m so neither player is going to return much in a trade by themselves. 

If you consider that Polanco is the better offensive player between the two. 

Why are those focused on moving Polanco not focused on moving Farmer instead to make room so we can rush Lee up?

Are we taking the lesser player just to backup SS?

Are we taking the lesser player because Polanco would block Julien or vice versa?

Are we taking the lesser player to clear cash and a roster spot if so after 6.6 million for the roster spot is 3.9 million dollars extra? 

IMO... The team is better with Correa, Lewis, Julien and Polanco on the same roster than it is with Correa, Lewis, Julien and Farmer. Once you commit to 6.6 million for a single roster spot you are already committing significant money for that roster spot. For 3.9 million... I'll take the better player. 

IMO... I believe there is a high probability that someone or someones on the current 26 man roster will be dealt but that will depend on the team you are trading with that are willing to give up something significant and who they want in return. 

Lee will be waiting in the wings getting ready for his time in the sun.       

 

 

Part of my hot take is that as much as I love Polo, Farmer is better for this roster at this time. He can do much more that Polo cant than just play shortstop. It's not a simple discussion and better for a different article but they are both miles ahead of Lee.

[Fred]

On 10/30/2023 at 11:53 AM, Dman said:

Thanks for that info! I didn't go that deep. I agree the BABIP was low and I assumed it was likely weak contact, but thanks for setting the record straight.  I think he is close as well and he "could" have played at the MLB level last year given the numbers, but likely prudent to give him more time as he has only had one full pro year.  I can't remember talking about a player that has moved this fast through the Twins system ever before.  That is why I think it will be AAA until he sort of proves he has made all the adjustments needed for the MLB level.  The cold weather months in April\May are generally tough on hitters so I am thinking June\July before his numbers scream add me and call me up and that is best case scenario IMO.

The added benefit is that he doesn't have to be protected on the 40 man roster yet. The Twins have a problem with too many players with MLB potential and only 40 spots to protect them. They're bound to lose somebody in the rule 5 draft. I think somebody could take a shot with Sabato; I don't see that as a loss, but I'm not giving up on (for instance) Celestino.

[Fred]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

How do you come to that conclusion? I like pretty much everything about Brooks Lee, but a side by side comparison of Lee and Julien at Wichita and St. Paul is pretty close, all things considered. Perhaps Julien gains the slight nod based on AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Also, Polanco is still better than either Julien or Lee (who has not played MLB), although Jorge is admittedly on a bit of a decline. I'm thinking Brooks Lee will be a strong regular in the major leagues, but he isn't there yet and the players above him are better at this time. Perhaps the Twins trade Polanco and'or Julien to clear a path for Ll. We shall see.

Polo isn't getting younger, and is on the cusp of chronic problems with his lower half. Yes, he's still very productive, but when knee and ankle problems start cropping up, they usually don't get better as you age.