Gray to Stay or Sonny to Take Smart Money

[Dave Borton]

Good article from MLB/Park.

"“I don't know if this is the right thing to say before going to become a free agent,” Gray said. “But I'll say it because it's honest: Money is not the ultimate factor for me. Never has been. Having said that, you want to be valued appropriately.” 

 "Now that Gray and his family have experienced two years here, does Minnesota check all of their boxes?

“It does,” Gray said without hesitation. “We've had an incredible experience here."

https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/sonny-gray-on-possible-future-with-twins-before-hitting-free-agency

What say thee? Signs elsewhere (and with whom) or stays here.

My vote? Walking shoes, any contender. Let's say Atlanta since he is a Vanderbilt Commodore.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Odds are he still walks.  More money than what the Twins are willing to offer is the likely scenario.  However if he is willing to leave money on the table to stay with the Twins, they may find a deal for both parties.  He is a high end #2 pitcher.  Even with some regression his style of pitching likely does well over the next couple of years.  It is all about location and using a variety of pitches to keep the hitter guessing.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think it depends a lot on how long he wants to pitch. I have to believe that there is at least the three year, $63 million deal that Chris Bassitt got last year out there for Gray. Gray is a year younger so the analogy is good and they have similar stats. If Gray is willing to take a three year deal, I think the Twins should offer him something similar and I think that would be a competitive offer. I do think there will be at least one team that will offer him four years at a slightly higher AAV or three years at a significantly higher AAV. Something like four years, $90 million or three years, $70-75 million.

I think if Gray is willing to take a three year deal the Twins will offer him one and there's an even money chance he stays.  If he is looking for four years now, I think he's gone because someone else will offer that and the Twins will not.

Bottom line, I think it's a very close call but it is more likely than not that he winds up somewhere else next year.

[nicksaviking]

I could totally see both sides working something out in their exclusive negotiation window, but I'm going to say walk, simply because lately, the organization has preferred to see how the market plays out before committing to big contracts.

If Sonny truly isn't chasing top dollar, he'll probably be one of the first top end free agents to sign.

[Riverbrian]

Sonny will do what is best for Sonny and he deserves that. I'd love to have him back in our uniform next year but the right to become a free agent takes a long time in the baseball industry.  

He can honestly say that it isn't about the money and I will take him at his word. He can honestly say that he has enjoyed his time in Minnesota and I will take him at his word. 

However... In my opinion... if it was me. Regardless if money isn't the most important factor and regardless if my experience with the Twins was a good/great one. 

There is no way I'm giving up the opportunity to consider all 30 teams. I'm not giving up the opportunity to choose. It takes a long time to earn that privilege. I'm a free agent unless the Twins offer a ridiculous amount of money to return and not become a free agent.

However... Sonny is saying it's not about the money so it may not be possible to offer enough money and money is what it would take to give up that privilege.         

So... reading between the lines(which no one should ever do).

Sonny is going to be a free agent.    

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

33 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I could totally see both sides working something out in their exclusive negotiation window, but I'm going to say walk, simply because lately, the organization has preferred to see how the market plays out before committing to big contracts.

If Sonny truly isn't chasing top dollar, he'll probably be one of the first top end free agents to sign.

Josh Donaldson and Correa were the top end free agents to sign with the Twins.  Yes he would be the first high level pitcher to sign.  If I am the Twins I don't see how if he is willing to sign you don't do a 3 year contract for $63-$66 million with an option year.   His stats he should be worth 80 to 100 mil or more,  but he is not a fire thrower and there is massive expectation of regression and future decline.  This is going to be the most interesting decisions the Twins make this year in my opinion.  

[spanman2]

3yrs/$60,000,000...20/yr....lots of zeroes...definition of 'fair' could be interpreted different ways to be certain.  I dont see the Twins going any higher than that.  Rumors going around St. Louis is VERY interested in him.  We shall see.  WIN TWINS! 

[nicksaviking]

59 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Josh Donaldson and Correa were the top end free agents to sign with the Twins.  Yes he would be the first high level pitcher to sign.  If I am the Twins I don't see how if he is willing to sign you don't do a 3 year contract for $63-$66 million with an option year.   His stats he should be worth 80 to 100 mil or more,  but he is not a fire thrower and there is massive expectation of regression and future decline.  This is going to be the most interesting decisions the Twins make this year in my opinion.  

I mean, he can say what he wants about it not being about the money, but if the Twins are trying to get a 40% discount on his services, it's not the Twins decision, it's Sonny's.

And he'd obviously decide no.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I mean, he can say what he wants about it not being about the money, but if the Twins are trying to get a 40% discount on his services, it's not the Twins decision, it's Sonny's.

And he'd obviously decide no.

I think you are completely missing the point.   The interesting decision for the Twins is are they just satisfied with the draft compensation or are they going to try to to sign Gray.  

As to the contract the Twins would be getting it isn't a discount.  In general,  Gray hasn't been view as a top end starter and is not going to get the value of the stats that he provided this year.  That isn't the Twins fault.  That the Twins will be giving a qualifying offer means another team is not only giving salary,  they are also losing a draft pick.  Ultimately it gives the Twins more leverage and creates a bit of discount built into the contract.   I am curious if his contract is more in the 60 mil range as projected or closer to the 100 mil based on his stats and performance.  

[Parfigliano]

I dont see Gray as a 28th floor condo kind of guy.  Seems like a country boy who would be happier in a big secluded house in the country with a private fishing pond and room to hunt.

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I dont see Gray as a 28th floor condo kind of guy.  Seems like a country boy who would be happier in a big secluded house in the country with a private fishing pond and room to hunt.

Ain't signing here then. Minnesota law doesn't allow any single individual to own the entirety of a lakeshore.

[Twins GFP]

Unless Gray is truly chasing the last dollar, the Twins and Gray would be dumb not to discuss a new contract.

Gray has had two of the best years of his career in MN, the Twins should be a yearly playoff contender for the next 3-5 years.  Leading the Twins to a WS would make him a folk hero here.

Twins need SP depth (as does every team).  He won't require a 7 year contract.  He brings a needed veteran presence.

Offer him 2 years guaranteed at 10% above market value, with two additional option years that guarantee based on easily attainable goals (20 starts, 130 IP. etc.).

[EGFTShaw]

10 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Unless Gray is truly chasing the last dollar, the Twins and Gray would be dumb not to discuss a new contract.

Gray has had two of the best years of his career in MN, the Twins should be a yearly playoff contender for the next 3-5 years.  Leading the Twins to a WS would make him a folk hero here.

Twins need SP depth (as does every team).  He won't require a 7 year contract.  He brings a needed veteran presence.

Offer him 2 years guaranteed at 10% above market value, with two additional option years that guarantee based on easily attainable goals (20 starts, 130 IP. etc.).

Might be the best thing I've heard out of Gladden, (not Fire Dan Gladden...it's a poke at the real one), in forever... 😁

I like the idea, above average for the first 2 years and option years the guarantee on certain goals.  In fact their could be bonuses attached to those goals as well ala Buxton's contract.  (I'm catching the San Diego Chicken and sacrificing him to the Baseball Gods that Buxton can have a healthy season).

The one thing I've noticed is the Twins current FO is not averse to creativity when it comes to contracts.

[EGFTShaw]

BTW - I am going to Buxt the trend here and go with He Stays.  I'm a rebel without a beer.

[nicksaviking]

30 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Unless Gray is truly chasing the last dollar, the Twins and Gray would be dumb not to discuss a new contract.

Gray has had two of the best years of his career in MN, the Twins should be a yearly playoff contender for the next 3-5 years.  Leading the Twins to a WS would make him a folk hero here.

Twins need SP depth (as does every team).  He won't require a 7 year contract.  He brings a needed veteran presence.

Offer him 2 years guaranteed at 10% above market value, with two additional option years that guarantee based on easily attainable goals (20 starts, 130 IP. etc.).

That sounds too good to be true as a Twins fan.

I have to think both he and his agent know he'll have guaranteed three year offers from plenty of other clubs, which means he can and should ask for five and eventually settle for four.

[Twins GFP]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

That sounds too good to be true as a Twins fan.

I have to think both he and his agent know he'll have guaranteed three year offers from plenty of other clubs, which means he can and should ask for five and eventually settle for four.

The Twins will have a dollar/year line they will hold to (like Correa).  If some team is willing to pay more, Gray will probably be gone. 

I would even be good with three years + an option.  With Gray's pitching style not relying on power, his age related drop-off may not be as drastic.

In the end, it really comes down to Gray's priorities.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

23 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm a free agent unless the Twins offer a ridiculous amount of money to return and not become a free agent.

I l'd be glad to ridicule the amount of money the Twins offer, if that is all it takes...

I suppose i could also check more boxes, if someone will tell me what i am looking for... Mold? Mildew? Pizza grease?

But i'd just as well leave it be, and let Mr. Gray make his own decision.

[Dave Borton]

23 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

However... Sonny is saying it's not about the money so it may not be possible to offer enough money and money is what it would take to give up that privilege.         

....

Sonny is going to be a free agent.    

I think we are his 4th or 5th team. I think he has the taste of what MLB clubs are made of -- in which case, if he is happy here, might sign based on varied club experiences.

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, davidborton said:

I think we are his 4th or 5th team. I think he has the taste of what MLB clubs are made of -- in which case, if he is happy here, might sign based on varied club experiences.

Or he gets bored of a city every few years so he pulls up the tent, grabs his bindle and rides the rails to a new destination.

[Dave Borton]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Ain't signing here then. Minnesota law doesn't allow any single individual to own the entirety of a lakeshore.

Can dig a mighty nice pond on a 160-acre quarter section with $62.5MM.

[Jerr]

1 hour ago, EGFTShaw said:

BTW - I am going to Buxt the trend here and go with He Stays.  I'm a rebel without a beer.

Me too!

[chpettit19]

Every team would like a Sonny Gray on their roster. Every contender has room for him in their rotation (some lower than others). Sonny has been around a long time, and I'd bet has a number of friends in other orgs. It's quite possible he enjoyed his time here and likes how the Twins run things, but with his connections he should be able to find out how any team offering him a deal runs, and what their clubhouses are like. I believe him when he says the money isn't the top factor, but it can certainly be the deciding factor when you're deciding between multiple contenders who run things the way you like and are offering you the same number of years. Money may not convince him to go to a bottom feeder, but the Twins being at 50 for 3 and the Cardinals being at 70 for 3 would likely lead to Sonny in St Louis, I'd bet.

Because I think he'll have multiple offers from multiple contenders I think he leaves because I don't think the Twins will be the high bidder in terms of length or total value on the deal.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I’m just here because I found the title amusing. Bravo!

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Every team would like a Sonny Gray on their roster. Every contender has room for him in their rotation (some lower than others). Sonny has been around a long time, and I'd bet has a number of friends in other orgs. It's quite possible he enjoyed his time here and likes how the Twins run things, but with his connections he should be able to find out how any team offering him a deal runs, and what their clubhouses are like. I believe him when he says the money isn't the top factor, but it can certainly be the deciding factor when you're deciding between multiple contenders who run things the way you like and are offering you the same number of years. Money may not convince him to go to a bottom feeder, but the Twins being at 50 for 3 and the Cardinals being at 70 for 3 would likely lead to Sonny in St Louis, I'd bet.

Because I think he'll have multiple offers from multiple contenders I think he leaves because I don't think the Twins will be the high bidder in terms of length or total value on the deal.

Yup, the Cardinals are going to chase pitching and they are the closest city to his hometown outside of Atlanta, who is probably also in the market for pitching. Most guys who say 'it's not about the money' and actually mean it, tend to head back to their neck of the woods. Or at least their wives' neck of the woods. 

Not saying the Twins can't or won't re-sign him, but any thoughts of discounts to stay here is probably just daydreaming.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

I think the Braves are a team that sneakily may be the favorite to land Gray. They have two or three holes in the rotation and they don't have prospects to make a trade for a frontline starter. I think they'll pursue arms heavily in free agency, and I would not be surprised if they make a run at an expensive veteran like Gray.

[spanman2]

On 10/19/2023 at 12:32 PM, nicksaviking said:

I mean, he can say what he wants about it not being about the money, but if the Twins are trying to get a 40% discount on his services, it's not the Twins decision, it's Sonny's.

And he'd obviously decide no.

Well said Nick...I see the Twins offering 3/60 mill...

[Shaitan]

The saga could go either way.

But I don't believe a single word out of that guy's mouth. Let's just say he seems to like the sound of his own voice, and that trait is great for press releases.

[glunn]

On 10/20/2023 at 7:21 AM, Parfigliano said:

I dont see Gray as a 28th floor condo kind of guy.  Seems like a country boy who would be happier in a big secluded house in the country with a private fishing pond and room to hunt.

Maybe he should look for a place that has a lot of lakes?

[ashbury]

I can hold contradictory ideas in my head.  The deal will come down to total dollars, and that almost certainly means whichever team offers the most guaranteed years (ignore any option years), and the Twins are on record not liking to do lots of years for pitchers.  And yet, I am optimistic that the team and the player somehow will find a way.  Book it? No, not really. 

[Otaknam]

I think Sonny will walk because the manager does not trust him to pitch more than five innings. And Gray has a bulldog mentality.