Maeda in Game 1 is the Call, Ryan will Start

[Not Greg Gagne]

Joe Ryan is going to take the hill, but this is my amicus brief for why Kenta Maeda a the rare "both and" scenario, with pluses, leverage, and best use all around in exchange for only slight and hypothetical downsides. Let's begin.

I have to admit that I first thought of Maeda starting in Game 1 as the ultimate revenge spot. Get him the tape from the 2017 World Series and just let him boil right until he has to take the mound, but there is so much more wisdom to starting him in Game 1 than that. I want to start with the downsides. Why don't you give him the ball?

1. Kenta is valuable in the bullpen.
2. Joe Ryan is a good starting pitcher who can start without taking Kenta out of the bullpen.

This is true. Kenta Maeda is a valuable arm in the bullpen. He can come and provide valuable innings, particularly if a starter falters early on, to keep the Twins in a game and, potentially, a series.

Let's pause here to take a look at the ALDS schedule. Game 1 - 10/7; Game 2 - 10/8; Game 3 - 10/10; Game 4* - 10/11; Game 5* - 10/13. Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray slot into Games 2, 3, and 5 on full (or more) rest, so it is safe to assume they will take those games. The Twins need to find a starter for a game on October 7 and a likely, but not guaranteed, game on October 11. A big discovery in the calendaring of these games - the Game 1 starter cannot pitch Game 4 on full rest.

This leaves a few options available to the Twins.

1. Start Joe Ryan on short rest in Game 4; 
2. Use Kenta in Game 4 if the series goes that long;
3. Add Bailey Ober to the series roster as a fourth starter at the expense of someone like Andrew Stevenson; or
4. Use Kenta in Game 1 when he will be freshest.

Like the 1991 Twins, let's go worst to first through these options.

Using your third-ish best starter on short rest in what will either be a "win or go home" or a "win or go back to Houston" situation is not plan to succeed in my book. To give this option the benefit of the doubt, Game 4 is not guaranteed, so you could plan on a sweep (either way I suppose) and not have to worry about it.

Adding a fourth starter and taking off someone who can essentially give you an extra base either via a steal or extra bag on a hit or borderline out is misreading what is more valuable over 3, 4 or 5 games. Maybe you sacrifice a bullpen arm, but who would be worth that?

Kenta in Game 4 is the most realistic option that I hope the Twins will do, followed by Chris Paddack and then situational to Jhoan Duran, but I think that is taking an unnecessary chance. What if Maeda (or worse Maeda and Paddack) are needed to mop up some disaster in Game 2 and/or Game 3? Do the Twins shift to Lopez on short rest for 4 and Gray on short rest for 5? Maybe if there was a disaster, their pitch counts didn't get high, you  might argue. Would you like to know a situation that removes all of these hypotheticals though?

Starting Kenta Maeda in Game 1. One thing that every day from September 29 through October 6 have in common is that Kenta Maeda is guaranteed to not have taken the mound. You cannot say that about the dates leading up to Game 4.

Say the Twins start Maeda, what hymnal will the handwringers sing? "Hark, the long-armed bullpen's short!" To quote my own treatise here, "Kenta Maeda is a valuable arm in the bullpen. He can come and provide valuable innings, particularly if a starter falters early on, to keep the Twins in a game and, potentially, a series." Kenta starting Game 1 would put him out of contention for Game 2 and Game 3 (where he would hypothetically be asked to pitch with two full days off between his start and Game 3 with a travel day in there, so it wouldn't happen). If only we could remember a tight playoff series where Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray pitched two games but the bullpen was needed in plenty of tight spots and Kenta Maeda never had to touch his toes. It would be nice to know we had the guys other than Kenta to get us through those games.

On the surface, there does seem to be some circular logic here, arguing against a plan to start Maeda in Game 4 because of a situation where he could be needed in Game 2 or 3 and then advocating for him starting Game 1 because there are other guys to come in in tight spots if those arise in Games 2 and 3 and he is on the shelf. let me say, however:

1. How dare you?
2. You are!
3. I do see a difference, let me explain.

The two situations are different. One situation is he literally unavailable - where he started a day or three days ago - the club knows it, the guys know it, and plans are made accordingly. The other situation is that he is slotted to start in a game that could happen, but he could come in if he is needed and the remaining bad options can be dealt with down the road. This leaves the door open for poor decision making, either analytically (like we saw from the other dugout this last series) or emotionally, being reactive to a situation. Further, even if there could be a world where the decision making could be locked-up, there is only one option that allows the entire pitching staff to be fresh when he starts and goes, what will likely be five innings. Starting Kenta Maeda Game 1.

A final point for those worried about needing Maeda out of the bullpen. This will now be the third time I've conceded that he can come and provide valuable innings, particularly if a starter falters early on, to keep the Twins in a game and, potentially, a series. I ask you, what games will he most likely be needed in this role? The answer is Game 1 if Joe Ryan comes out and is not sharp and Game 4 if Ryan (or Ober) do the same. Why not use Maeda from the jump in Game 1 when you'll still have him for that role in Game 4?

Now we can get to the revenge factor. I imagine most of you have had a situation in your life where you have been treated unfairly. Can you imagine if that unfair treatment prevented you from reaching the pinnacle of whatever your best skill is? I know I certainly couldn't stomach if someone prevented me from writing rambling blog posts that will never have any real impact. The horror! But seriously. The Astros did that to Kenta Maeda, and it has layers. One thing, Kenta didn't get to start. He pitched five innings over four games, with three strikeouts and only one of the batters he was responsible for scoring. That is a good stat line and if you cannot remember the series itself you may think that the revenge factor is motivated by the chance he never got, but that is not the full story. Unfortunately, Maeda is on the wrong side of the second most impactful play of the entire series in terms of championship win probability added.

Like a lot of Twins fans, I have a soft spot for the pitcher Kenta Maeda was during the 2020 season. I understand that he is not that pitcher anymore and I don't think he is owed anything for what he has done for the team, however. In fact, the biggest advocate for using the revenge factor can arrive there from a from a pure, cold, corporates talent-sapping viewpoint. Tapping into the passion he must have to prove himself as a starter in that stadium and to that player is a resource that has to be used. Joe Ryan doesn't have that. Kenta Maeda at Target Field doesn't have that.

Speaking of Joe Ryan, he is a factor in this as well. Joe is a good pitcher but does anyone else have concerns about home runs in that stadium with that short porch in left field and Joe Ryan on the mound?

Let's wrap this up then. Start Kenta in Game 1.

Pros:

1. Guarantee he and the rest of the bullpen are at full rest;
2. Remove unnecessary hypotheticals that could blow up Games 4 and 5
3. Avoid losing a key piece of your bench or bullpen for the entire series;
4. Get a Game 4 starter at full rest;
5. Use Kenta's completely unique history to your advantage;
6. Use Kenta in the game you are most likely to need him anyway, before it gets out of hand.

Cons:

1. Lose a valuable long-arm from your bullpen for Games 2 and 3

 

[howeda7]

Personally I put Ober on the roster over Paddock. I don't really see why Paddock is on the play-off roster. He's clearly behind Jax/Stewart/Varland and Pagan for any high leverage spot and you don't need him as a long man if you already have Maeda.

As for who starts when, I'd go ahead and start Ryan in game 1 slotting Ober for game 4 with Maeda the handcuff for either/both. But if that is reversed, that's fine too.

[miller761]

What are Ryan's and Ober's stats against Houston this year? Career?

[dex8425]

I really don't like Ryan's stuff vs Houston's fastball hitters and short left field porch. I'd love to start Maeda in game one, but I don't think the Twins will. My prediction:

1. Ryan, then Maeda

2. Lopez

3. Gray

4. Ober

Game 5 is all hands on deck, perhaps Lopez starts on short rest. 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

I really don't like Ryan's stuff vs Houston's fastball hitters and short left field porch. I'd love to start Maeda in game one, but I don't think the Twins will. My prediction:

1. Ryan, then Maeda

2. Lopez

3. Gray

4. Ober

Game 5 is all hands on deck, perhaps Lopez starts on short rest. 

Lopez wouldn't be on short rest for game 5 so I'd fully expect him to start that game with no question.

I'd start Ober game 1 and Ryan game 4, but will not at all be surprised if your setup is what actually happens.

[JDBrocks]

I like Ober in Minute Maid. Lower HH%, higher GB%, and has been pitching better than Ryan of late. Ober once through the lineup, Maeda once through the lineup, then hand it over to the pen. Save Joe Ryan for a game at Target field. The Astros aren't going to chase a lot and inducing weaker contact at Minute Maid will be important.

[Not Greg Gagne]

7 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

I like Ober in Minute Maid. Lower HH%, higher GB%, and has been pitching better than Ryan of late. Ober once through the lineup, Maeda once through the lineup, then hand it over to the pen. Save Joe Ryan for a game at Target field. The Astros aren't going to chase a lot and inducing weaker contact at Minute Maid will be important.

Sounds good. Who is coming off the roster for Ober?

[clone52]

2 hours ago, Not Greg Gagne said:

Joe Ryan is going to take the hill, but this is my amicus brief for why Kenta Maeda a the rare "both and" scenario, with pluses, leverage, and best use all around in exchange for only slight and hypothetical downsides. Let's begin.

I have to admit that I first thought of Maeda starting in Game 1 as the ultimate revenge spot. Get him the tape from the 2017 World Series and just let him boil right until he has to take the mound, but there is so much more wisdom to starting him in Game 1 than that. I want to start with the downsides. Why don't you give him the ball?

1. Kenta is valuable in the bullpen.
2. Joe Ryan is a good starting pitcher who can start without taking Kenta out of the bullpen.

This is true. Kenta Maeda is a valuable arm in the bullpen. He can come and provide valuable innings, particularly if a starter falters early on, to keep the Twins in a game and, potentially, a series.

Let's pause here to take a look at the ALDS schedule. Game 1 - 10/7; Game 2 - 10/8; Game 3 - 10/10; Game 4* - 10/11; Game 5* - 10/13. Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray slot into Games 2, 3, and 5 on full (or more) rest, so it is safe to assume they will take those games. The Twins need to find a starter for a game on October 7 and a likely, but not guaranteed, game on October 11. A big discovery in the calendaring of these games - the Game 1 starter cannot pitch Game 4 on full rest.

This leaves a few options available to the Twins.

1. Start Joe Ryan on short rest in Game 4; 
2. Use Kenta in Game 4 if the series goes that long;
3. Add Bailey Ober to the series roster as a fourth starter at the expense of someone like Andrew Stevenson; or
4. Use Kenta in Game 1 when he will be freshest.

Like the 1991 Twins, let's go worst to first through these options.

Using your third-ish best starter on short rest in what will either be a "win or go home" or a "win or go back to Houston" situation is not plan to succeed in my book. To give this option the benefit of the doubt, Game 4 is not guaranteed, so you could plan on a sweep (either way I suppose) and not have to worry about it.

Adding a fourth starter and taking off someone who can essentially give you an extra base either via a steal or extra bag on a hit or borderline out is misreading what is more valuable over 3, 4 or 5 games. Maybe you sacrifice a bullpen arm, but who would be worth that?

Kenta in Game 4 is the most realistic option that I hope the Twins will do, followed by Chris Paddack and then situational to Jhoan Duran, but I think that is taking an unnecessary chance. What if Maeda (or worse Maeda and Paddack) are needed to mop up some disaster in Game 2 and/or Game 3? Do the Twins shift to Lopez on short rest for 4 and Gray on short rest for 5? Maybe if there was a disaster, their pitch counts didn't get high, you  might argue. Would you like to know a situation that removes all of these hypotheticals though?

Starting Kenta Maeda in Game 1. One thing that every day from September 29 through October 6 have in common is that Kenta Maeda is guaranteed to not have taken the mound. You cannot say that about the dates leading up to Game 4.

Say the Twins start Maeda, what hymnal will the handwringers sing? "Hark, the long-armed bullpen's short!" To quote my own treatise here, "Kenta Maeda is a valuable arm in the bullpen. He can come and provide valuable innings, particularly if a starter falters early on, to keep the Twins in a game and, potentially, a series." Kenta starting Game 1 would put him out of contention for Game 2 and Game 3 (where he would hypothetically be asked to pitch with two full days off between his start and Game 3 with a travel day in there, so it wouldn't happen). If only we could remember a tight playoff series where Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray pitched two games but the bullpen was needed in plenty of tight spots and Kenta Maeda never had to touch his toes. It would be nice to know we had the guys other than Kenta to get us through those games.

On the surface, there does seem to be some circular logic here, arguing against a plan to start Maeda in Game 4 because of a situation where he could be needed in Game 2 or 3 and then advocating for him starting Game 1 because there are other guys to come in in tight spots if those arise in Games 2 and 3 and he is on the shelf. let me say, however:

1. How dare you?
2. You are!
3. I do see a difference, let me explain.

The two situations are different. One situation is he literally unavailable - where he started a day or three days ago - the club knows it, the guys know it, and plans are made accordingly. The other situation is that he is slotted to start in a game that could happen, but he could come in if he is needed and the remaining bad options can be dealt with down the road. This leaves the door open for poor decision making, either analytically (like we saw from the other dugout this last series) or emotionally, being reactive to a situation. Further, even if there could be a world where the decision making could be locked-up, there is only one option that allows the entire pitching staff to be fresh when he starts and goes, what will likely be five innings. Starting Kenta Maeda Game 1.

A final point for those worried about needing Maeda out of the bullpen. This will now be the third time I've conceded that he can come and provide valuable innings, particularly if a starter falters early on, to keep the Twins in a game and, potentially, a series. I ask you, what games will he most likely be needed in this role? The answer is Game 1 if Joe Ryan comes out and is not sharp and Game 4 if Ryan (or Ober) do the same. Why not use Maeda from the jump in Game 1 when you'll still have him for that role in Game 4?

Now we can get to the revenge factor. I imagine most of you have had a situation in your life where you have been treated unfairly. Can you imagine if that unfair treatment prevented you from reaching the pinnacle of whatever your best skill is? I know I certainly couldn't stomach if someone prevented me from writing rambling blog posts that will never have any real impact. The horror! But seriously. The Astros did that to Kenta Maeda, and it has layers. One thing, Kenta didn't get to start. He pitched five innings over four games, with three strikeouts and only one of the batters he was responsible for scoring. That is a good stat line and if you cannot remember the series itself you may think that the revenge factor is motivated by the chance he never got, but that is not the full story. Unfortunately, Maeda is on the wrong side of the second most impactful play of the entire series in terms of championship win probability added.

Like a lot of Twins fans, I have a soft spot for the pitcher Kenta Maeda was during the 2020 season. I understand that he is not that pitcher anymore and I don't think he is owed anything for what he has done for the team, however. In fact, the biggest advocate for using the revenge factor can arrive there from a from a pure, cold, corporates talent-sapping viewpoint. Tapping into the passion he must have to prove himself as a starter in that stadium and to that player is a resource that has to be used. Joe Ryan doesn't have that. Kenta Maeda at Target Field doesn't have that.

Speaking of Joe Ryan, he is a factor in this as well. Joe is a good pitcher but does anyone else have concerns about home runs in that stadium with that short porch in left field and Joe Ryan on the mound?

Let's wrap this up then. Start Kenta in Game 1.

Pros:

1. Guarantee he and the rest of the bullpen are at full rest;
2. Remove unnecessary hypotheticals that could blow up Games 4 and 5
3. Avoid losing a key piece of your bench or bullpen for the entire series;
4. Get a Game 4 starter at full rest;
5. Use Kenta's completely unique history to your advantage;
6. Use Kenta in the game you are most likely to need him anyway, before it gets out of hand.

Cons:

1. Lose a valuable long-arm from your bullpen for Games 2 and 3

 

Aren't a lot of of your Pos true whether Maeda starts or not?

1.  Starting Maeda or Ryan would guarantee them and your entire bullpen are available at full rest.
2.  Plenty of hypotheticals that could blow up the series with Maeda starting.  What if Maeda blows up early and they have to pull him quick, that could quickly sour the rest of the series.  Same thing could happen with Ryan, though.
3.  I'm not sure why this is true?  If you start Maeda game 1, then Ryan is your likely game 4 starter.  If you start Ryan game 1 and they use Maeda in relief, you still have options of a bullpen game in Game 4, with Paddack going through the lineup once, Varland going through the lineup once and maybe even Joe Ryan (short rest, not expecting a full start).  Plus, I think you could put Ober on the roster (instead of Funderburk).
4.  I think you can get that either way if you really want it.  Either Maeda or Ryan.  If you start Ryan and he pitches well, you just save Maeda for game 4.  You might even get an inning of relief in game 1 or game 2 and still get a fresh Maeda in Game 4.
5.  Unless you don't pitch Maeda at all, you could still get that unique advantage.
6.  If you're really down on Ryan, this is a valid point.

I could go either way, but I think I'd go with Ryan in Game 1.  If he looks like he's not sharp, pull him quickly.  The reason I'd go Ryan/Maeda rather than Maeda/Ryan is that I don't think Ryan has ever come on in relief, while Maeda has.

The fact is, the Twins are going to need to cleanup their infield defense and get the bats going more to beat Houston.  I don't think Houston will screw up as much as Toronto did.

[JDBrocks]

1 minute ago, Not Greg Gagne said:

Sounds good. Who is coming off the roster for Ober?

Either Funderburk or Paddack

[Not Greg Gagne]

2 minutes ago, clone52 said:

Aren't a lot of of your Pos true whether Maeda starts or not?

1.  Starting Maeda or Ryan would guarantee them and your entire bullpen are available at full rest.
2.  Plenty of hypotheticals that could blow up the series with Maeda starting.  What if Maeda blows up early and they have to pull him quick, that could quickly sour the rest of the series.  Same thing could happen with Ryan, though.
3.  I'm not sure why this is true?  If you start Maeda game 1, then Ryan is your likely game 4 starter.  If you start Ryan game 1 and they use Maeda in relief, you still have options of a bullpen game in Game 4, with Paddack going through the lineup once, Varland going through the lineup once and maybe even Joe Ryan (short rest, not expecting a full start).  Plus, I think you could put Ober on the roster (instead of Funderburk).
4.  I think you can get that either way if you really want it.  Either Maeda or Ryan.  If you start Ryan and he pitches well, you just save Maeda for game 4.  You might even get an inning of relief in game 1 or game 2 and still get a fresh Maeda in Game 4.
5.  Unless you don't pitch Maeda at all, you could still get that unique advantage.
6.  If you're really down on Ryan, this is a valid point.

I could go either way, but I think I'd go with Ryan in Game 1.  If he looks like he's not sharp, pull him quickly.  The reason I'd go Ryan/Maeda rather than Maeda/Ryan is that I don't think Ryan has ever come on in relief, while Maeda has.

The fact is, the Twins are going to need to cleanup their infield defense and get the bats going more to beat Houston.  I don't think Houston will screw up as much as Toronto did.

1. Not in light of starting Maeda in Game 4. Even a possibility you approach to in your fourth item here.
2. Yep. It would solve the things I brought up in my post though.
3. If a bullpen game in Game 4 is a good viable option, then I guess we will have to disagree.
4. Maeda in Houston is part of the point. Maeda in Game 1 to not blow Game 4 is another point.
5. Kenta would be motivated by a chance to start in Houston. Which other game in Houston would you propose he start?
6. Not down on Ryan, just stating a fact that of all the games that Kenta Maeda is likely to pitch it would be in Game 1. In all the situations Kenta Maeda would be brought in, the most likely would be early on when there is something that the starter has gotten into and cannot get out of.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, howeda7 said:

Personally I put Ober on the roster over Paddock. I don't really see why Paddock is on the play-off roster. He's clearly behind Jax/Stewart/Varland and Pagan for any high leverage spot and you don't need him as a long man if you already have Maeda.

As for who starts when, I'd go ahead and start Ryan in game 1 slotting Ober for game 4 with Maeda the handcuff for either/both. But if that is reversed, that's fine too.

Ryan’s splits on the road v. home beg one to have him start in Minneapolis.

Ober for Paddack as you suggest. Ober in Game 1 in Houston.

Leave Maeda in the Pen for crucial long situation.

Ober - Lopez - day off - Gray - Ryan - day off Lopez if needed.

[Not Greg Gagne]

1 minute ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

It would have to be Stevenson.  You want one additional pitcher for the longer series anyway.  I first thought of Paddack but he may be needed for extra inning games or blowouts to eat up some innings.

That's exactly what I am afraid of. I would hate to see that. I don't want to see Ryan Jeffers on first base with two outs in the 8th down one after we've burned Castro on a PH to have essentially a 6th starter on this roster.

[Not Greg Gagne]

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Paddack as you suggest

Makes perfect sense, but reminds me a bit of the guys the Twins trotted out for past big games. Pitchers we love, but who were just not up for it. What's the success rate for SPs making their first playoff start on the road, having tripled their career high innings? 

I still want blood thirsty Maeda Game 1, fireman Maeda Games 4 & 5, and have Paddack throwing cheese the whole series, than have Ober once on the road in Game 1.

[clone52]

11 minutes ago, Not Greg Gagne said:

1. Not in light of starting Maeda in Game 4. Even a possibility you approach to in your fourth item here.
2. Yep. It would solve the things I brought up in my post though.
3. If a bullpen game in Game 4 is a good viable option, then I guess we will have to disagree.
4. Maeda in Houston is part of the point. Maeda in Game 1 to not blow Game 4 is another point.
5. Kenta would be motivated by a chance to start in Houston. Which other game in Houston would you propose he start?
6. Not down on Ryan, just stating a fact that of all the games that Kenta Maeda is likely to pitch it would be in Game 1. In all the situations Kenta Maeda would be brought in, the most likely would be early on when there is something that the starter has gotten into and cannot get out of.

I appreciate your analysis and opinions.  My comments are not meant to imply I think you are wrong.  I just like to debate.

1. I thought you mean full rest in Game 1, not game 4.  I see where you are coming from.

3. It seems like you think starting Joe Ryan in Game 1 risks turning it into a bullpen game.  Wouldn't having Joe Ryan start in game 4 also have that same risk?  I don't really agree with your point that its not circular logic.  I think the idea that starting Maeda in Game 1 eliminates the possibility of using him in Games 2/3 is really only useful if you don't trust the coaching staff to use their resources properly.  A counter argument to Maeda in Game 1 is that if you start Joe Ryan, you have the option of using Maeda when he is needed in any of the first 3 games.  If he's not needed in Game 1, you can use him in Game 2.  If he's not needed in Game 2, you can use him in Game 3.  Or, you can flat out save him for Game 4 start (but you might not get there).  I think there has to at least be a little confidence that the coaching staff uses their resources properly, though, whichever decision.

4.  I see your point here.  Maeda as a veteran on the road and Joe Ryan at the friendly home part.  That makes sense.  Joe Ryan has been far better at home than on the road.  Maeda has been far better on the road than at home.  This right here kind of makes it a no brainer.

5.  I'd have to know Maeda personally to know if that would affect him, but the coaches certaily do.

I think you're right on Maeda going game 1.  I was a little surprised that they went to Varland in both Game 1 and Game 2 (rather than Maeda in Game 2), so I wonder if they were thinking with a 1-0 series lead, lets save Maeda for Game 1 of the ALDS.

I like the schedule as well.  Having Monday as an off day, plus 2 days rest before Game 1 means all of your relief pitchers could theoretically pitch in both Game 1 and Game 2 and still be available for Game 3.

[JDBrocks]

2 minutes ago, Not Greg Gagne said:

Makes perfect sense, but reminds me a bit of the guys the Twins trotted out for past big games. Pitchers we love, but who were just not up for it. What's the success rate for SPs making their first playoff start on the road, having tripled their career high innings? 

I still want blood thirsty Maeda Game 1, fireman Maeda Games 4 & 5, and have Paddack throwing cheese the whole series, than have Ober once on the road in Game 1.

Ober was great in September though. Maybe his best month of the year. I'd trust a consistently strong Ober who's been firing on all cylinders to deliver in one start more than I'd trust Paddack to not blow up after recording 5 innings of work all of this season. especially with Maeda ready and experienced in a relief role.

[clone52]

27 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

It would have to be Stevenson.  You want one additional pitcher for the longer series anyway.  I first thought of Paddack but he may be needed for extra inning games or blowouts to eat up some innings.

I disagree.  Sure its a longer series, but you have 2 off days ahead of it and off days after game 2 and game 4.  All of your relievers should be available to pitch in both Game 1 and Game 2 (unless they go multiple innings), plus your game 4 starter could come in in Game 1 for a couple of innings and still be fine to start Game 4.

I think I'd leave off Funderburk.  Or Pagan, who has a terrible track record against Houston.  He owns Jose Abreu, but the rest of that lineup hits him like they are hitting batting practice.

[clone52]

1 minute ago, JDBrocks said:

Ober was great in September though. Maybe his best month of the year. I'd trust a consistently strong Ober who's been firing on all cylinders to deliver in one start more than I'd trust Paddack to not blow up after recording 5 innings of work all of this season. especially with Maeda ready and experienced in a relief role.

Thats a decent point.  I know he's at a record number of innings for him, but he's had a ton of rest, too.

[FlyingFinn]

55 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

It would have to be Stevenson.

Edit: My original comment was wrong. Thanks @JDBrocks for the correction.

[JDBrocks]

8 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

No. Max is 13 pitchers so you need a pitcher coming off the roster (Funderburk or Paddack IMO).

They only have 12 right now.

[MplsFan]

2 hours ago, howeda7 said:

Personally I put Ober on the roster over Paddock. I don't really see why Paddock is on the play-off roster. He's clearly behind Jax/Stewart/Varland and Pagan for any high leverage spot and you don't need him as a long man if you already have Maeda.

Respectfully, did you see Paddack’s 3 innings at hitter-friendly Coors Field on Saturday?  High 90s, worked quick, looked fresh, confident and intimidating.  4Ks.  No hits.  I can see why he was on the playoff roster.

[Not Greg Gagne]

As for Funderburk or Paddack - a second lefty is valuable, especially with Theilbar being less than lights out. Paddack is throwing hard, but I think if Maeda is going to stick with the pen, then Paddack is the redundancy to eliminate. How much different would we feel about Funderburk if Chapman keeps that ball fair? Funderburk is inexperienced but has been really good.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Not Greg Gagne said:

That's exactly what I am afraid of. I would hate to see that. I don't want to see Ryan Jeffers on first base with two outs in the 8th down one after we've burned Castro on a PH to have essentially a 6th starter on this roster.

Falvey certainly made it sound like they're leaning 13/13 for this series in his press conference. I'd think there's a strong debate being had since it's a 5 game series with 2 off days, but from the way he talked at the presser it sounded to me like they're leaning 13 pitchers. I thought 12 was too many for the WC round, but they went with that. Will be interesting to see what they do.

[Stew]

I think your making things too complicated. Ryan is picked out for game one. If he fails you can go with either maeda or paddock. But I also would prefer over instead of paddock. Let's face it if you use maeda in the first game as a starter he's done for games two and three. He might not be good for game four. Ryan would then be forced into game four start. And what do we do if we need long men in two or three. I like the combo of players they choose. I would still put over on the roster. Stevenson would be pulled off for buxton only.

[howeda7]

3 hours ago, MplsFan said:

Respectfully, did you see Paddack’s 3 innings at hitter-friendly Coors Field on Saturday?  High 90s, worked quick, looked fresh, confident and intimidating.  4Ks.  No hits.  I can see why he was on the playoff roster.

I did. But give me the guy who made 26 starts and had a 3.50 ERA over the guy who's thrown 5 innings in 16 months. As for Paddock vs Stevenson, I won't die on that hill, but if Paddock is only on the roster to eat innings in a blowout, I'd rather have the pinch running option.

[howeda7]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Ryan’s splits on the road v. home beg one to have him start in Minneapolis.

Ober for Paddack as you suggest. Ober in Game 1 in Houston.

Leave Maeda in the Pen for crucial long situation.

Ober - Lopez - day off - Gray - Ryan - day off Lopez if needed.

 I don't disagree, really. I trust Ober over Ryan in either case. I guess it comes down to the park factor vs who you want in a potential elimination game.

[Not Greg Gagne]

1 hour ago, Stew said:

I think your making things too complicated. Ryan is picked out for game one. If he fails you can go with either maeda or paddock. But I also would prefer over instead of paddock. Let's face it if you use maeda in the first game as a starter he's done for games two and three. He might not be good for game four. Ryan would then be forced into game four start. And what do we do if we need long men in two or three. I like the combo of players they choose. I would still put over on the roster. Stevenson would be pulled off for buxton only.

A lot of what you have asked I answered pretty directly in the OP, but I do want to ask something of the scenario you lay out - Maeda starts Game 1, is out 2, 3, & 4 where Ryan is "forced" to start - If Ryan wouldn't be a candidate to start either of the two games not taken by Lopez or Gray, then why would he be on the roster?

I really do think the handwringing over bullpen needs in Games 2 & 3 is overdone. We needed the bullpen for plenty of innings this week, without a day off in between, and still didn't pitch four bullpen arms - Maeda, Paddack, Pagan, & Funderburk - at all. There is plenty of room to not add a sixth starting arm to this roster.

[ziggy]

Quote

Respectfully, did you see Paddack’s 3 innings at hitter-friendly Coors Field on Saturday?  High 90s, worked quick, looked fresh, confident and intimidating.

He hit 98 according to the field radar gun. He was clearly the best pitcher of the day, for either team.

However, he has pitched 5 innings total in the bigs this year, I'm not counting on him eating a lot of high pressure innings in the playoffs.

[ziggy]

Personally, I'd go with

1. Lopez

2. Gray

3. Maeda

4. Ober or Lopez(depending on the series standing)

 

Ryan has not looked good lately, I don't think he has hit 93 in over a month.

[darin617]

They can't fall behind in a best of 5 series. Pablo must start game 1 and Gray pitches game 2. 

They would only be starting on 4 days rest. 

 

[Rosterman]

I would hope for three solid innings from Ryan and three more from Madea. Then, depending on the score, you can add in Paddack or Pagan (and even Fundeburk).

For game two you can have Thielbar, Jax, Duran, Varland, Stewart still available. 

You owrry about Game 4 once you see the results of games one and two...can you start Ober, who is long relief.

I don't see Stevenson making the roster, barring an injury.

I don't see anyone voicing the minor worry that the Twins don't have a third catcher on their roster. What happens if they lose one. No one, and I mean no one, in the wings.