Week in Review: Keeping a Distance

[Nick Nelson]

The Minnesota Twins missed a golden opportunity to slam the window on Cleveland at home, leaving a glimmer of hope in the division race. But they bounced back with a strong weekend in Texas to keep their distance in the Central, with a five-game lead.

Now comes the final head-to-head showdown.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/28 through Sun, 9/3
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 71-66)
Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: +51)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (5.0 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 132 | MIN 10, CLE 6: Lewis Grand Slam Keys Comeback
Game 133 | CLE 4, MIN 2: Offense Comes Up Empty in Loss
Game 134 | CLE 5, MIN 2: Twins Fall in Extras, Waste Gray Gem
Game 135 | MIN 5, TEX 1: Homers and Bullpen Power Victory
Game 136 | MIN 9, TEX 7: Resilient Offense Picks Up Keuchel
Game 137 | TEX 6, MIN 5: Spirited Comeback Fall Shorts This Time

NEWS & NOTES

The Twins missed out on an unexpected waiver bonanza on the final day of August, as their waiver priority position kept them just out of range for key veterans who became freely available due to salary dumps. Making matters more painful, the Guardians – who effectively kept their hopes alive by winning two of three from Minnesota last week – claimed two relievers that could've definitely helped the Twins: Reynaldo Lopez and Matt Moore. 

Absent any external help, the Twins made a pair of promotions on September 1st when rosters expanded, adding reliever Brent Headrick and outfielder Andrew Stevenson. These might both be temporary additions, with some notable reinforcements on the way. 

Alex Kirilloff is rehabbing in St. Paul and looking about ready for a return – although the team is claiming they don't intend to activate him for the upcoming Cleveland series, preferring he get more at-bats to validate the recovery of his shoulder.

 

Jorge Alcala, Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart are all trying to make it to the Twins bullpen in September, with varying levels of optimism. More immediate is the potential arrival of Louie Varland, who appeared in relief for the Saints for the first time on Thursday and looked phenomenal, touching 100 MPH multiple times. It appears Varland is being groomed for a short-burst bullpen role, in which he could be highly effective.

With all these moving parts in motion, the Twins also made a pair of IL moves last week:

• Oliver Ortega was placed on the shelf with a lumbar strain, and replaced by Kody Funderburk, who had an eventful first week in the majors.
• Michael A. Taylor, who's been bothered by a hamstring issue that flared up on Saturday night, also went on the injured list, conveniently making room for the return of Willi Castro.
• Jose Miranda went on the 60-day IL to create 40-man space for Stevenson, likely putting the stamp on a lost season for the 25-year-old.

HIGHLIGHTS

In a familiar story for the second half, the bats paved the way for Minnesota's success, with the lineup scoring 24 runs in their three victories to overcome some shaky pitching performances. And, in a familiar story for pretty much the whole season, Donovan Solano was the scrappy veteran plug sparking the offense.

Solano fueled the big comeback win on Saturday night, going 4-for-5 with a homer and four RBIs. It was one of three multi-hit games in a week that saw him finish 9-for-17, lifting his OBP to .379.

Few could have guessed when they signed him in late February for $2 million, essentially an offseason afterthought, that Solano would become such a pivotal and indispensable fixture on the 2023 roster. But he most definitely is.

 

Royce Lewis has the looks of an instant superstar, repeatedly delivering game-changing hits in pressure-packed spots. His rookie jolt has energized the entire team. Lewis' theatrics over the past week included a go-ahead grand slam on Tuesday, a game-tying three-run blast on Sunday, and then another game-tying single later in that same game. 

Another key contributor to the offense, and a critically important one, was Jorge Polanco. The long-tenured Twin is finally starting to find his groove after a long season of rehabbing and shaking off rust. He was simply a monster against Cleveland and Texas, picking up six hits in 21 at-bats including two doubles and two homers. Polanco drove in seven and also drew six walks. His productivity has revitalized the No. 2 spot in the order.

Often overlooked by fans for whatever reason, Polanco has been a standout hitter for most of his career – and a clutch one, too. His absence in the first half was a major reason for the offense's persistent struggles. As he's showing, Polanco's return alongside Lewis can be a crucial factor in their ongoing emergence, with big moments looming ahead. 

 

Much maligned over the past couple weeks, the Twins bullpen enjoyed some healthy redemption. They picked up Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel after rough outings on Monday and Saturday, rattling off clean innings and setting the stage for comeback victories.

Friday night's win in Texas offered a hopeful preview of Rocco Baldelli's successful October formula: Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar and Jhoan Duran following six good innings from the starter with three perfect frames to close it out. Nine up, nine down. 

The starter in that game, Joe Ryan, was stellar for a second straight time after coming off the injured list, striking out seven with no walks over six innings of one-run ball. From all appearances (and results), he looks like his old self, which is a welcome development as Maeda and Keuchel go off the rails. 

Ryan is lining himself up for a place in a potential postseason rotation that would almost certainly be fronted by Sonny Gray, the American League ERA leader. Gray was brilliant once again in a huge game against Cleveland on Wednesday, firing seven shutout innings in an (unsuccessful) effort to will his team to a possibly season-clinching win.

Gray has been downright phenomenal all year, setting himself up for a big free agent pay-day. I'd imagine he's got a pretty tight grip on Game 1 starter status at this point. For all the manufactured drama about Baldelli and the quick hooks, Gray pitched into the seventh in four of his six August starts, and ranked third among all major-league pitchers in innings thrown for the month, behind only noted workhorses Framber Valdez and Sandy Alcantara.

 

LOWLIGHTS

In spite of all the big-time relief performances last week, the bullpen's defining moment was unfortunately its worst: allowing Gray's gem on Wednesday to go to waste. That game was a medley of disaster moments – Jax and Thielbar giving up big hits, Duran skipping a wild pitch with victory a strike away, Funderburk coughing up the back-breaking home run in extras.

You can't expect a bullpen to be perfect, even when going good, and these kinds of things happen. However, this latest breakdown occurred at the most inopportune time, as the Twins sought to snuff out any legitimate hope for the Guardians and instead gave them a gasp of air.  

Cleveland channeled that momentum into a series victory against the Rays over the weekend, and now the Guardians will be hosting Minnesota at Progressive Field this coming week with a chance to whittle the division lead down to striking distance. 

Annoyingly, Cleveland will be upgraded since the showdown at Target Field a week prior, with Lucas Giolito set to start on Monday, and Lopez and Moore now available in relief. 

Losing just one game in the standings, the Twins mostly kept their distance over the past week, but they also didn't create any further ground, meaning no one can get comfortable. The ongoing stakes of each game provide cause for apprehension, as the back end of Minnesota's rotation unravels and close games keep slipping away.

I fully believe the Twins are built favorably for a postseason run: a top-heavy squad with strengths at the front of the rotation, the top of the lineup and the back of the bullpen. But they need to get there first, and they need to do it without wearing down the cornerstones they'll be counting on.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Are the Twins really going to leave Kirilloff in Triple-A for the Cleveland series, given its immense stakes? Especially when the alternative is sticking with Joey Gallo, who is bottoming out at the end of another bad season? 

Gallo is hitless in his past 23 plate appearances, and he committed multiple frustrating gaffes on the bases in the past week. He's un-rosterable at this point. 

The front office's odd gamble from last offseason cannot be viewed as anything more than a total failure, and yet Gallo has hung around into September anyway. Now the assorted developments that prolonged his stay are coming full-circle, with Kirilloff mashing on his rehab stint and looking ready to supplant the struggling vet.

It sounds like the Twins are just not quite ready to make that move. Bafflingly.

 

I very much understand the general sentiment to take it slow with Kirilloff, but these are special circumstances. If he's healthy, he's healthy, and wasting swings in Triple-A seems counterproductive when doing so means downgrading the quality of the Twins roster in such a significant way. 

The Twins cannot afford to have Gallo receiving any meaningful playing time in Cleveland this week while Kirilloff keeps playing to form in the minors. If that scenario plays some role in an undesirable result in the series, the Twins would be about as rippable for their overly conservative approach here as at the deadline.

 

Of course, stated plans can change. We'll see what happens on Monday. Kirilloff started in St. Paul on Sunday night (where he homered for a second straight day), seemingly suggesting he will not be heading to Cleveland, at least for the opener.

LOOKING AHEAD

It's all on the line this week. Both the Twins and Guardians are in position to make a decisive stand in Cleveland. A sweep for the Minnesota would all but lock down the division. A sweep for Cleveland would reduce the lead to two with 22 to play. Any other result will more or less keep this race vaguely alive. 

The Twins will be throwing their top three starters in a series that figures to have postseason vibes. Buckle up. 

MONDAY, 9/4: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Lucas Giolito
TUESDAY, 9/5: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Tanner Bibee
WEDNESDAY, 9/6: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Gavin Williams
FRIDAY, 9/8: METS @ TWINS – TBD v. LHP Dallas Keuchel
SATURDAY, 9/9: METS @ TWINS – RHP Kodai Senga v. RHP Kenta Maeda
SUNDAY, 9/10: METS @ TWINS – LHP David Peterson v. RHP Pablo Lopez

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[PDX Twin]

Well said, Nick. The Twins are excruciatingly frustrating! Just like every other team I've ever followed!

[tony&rodney]

Should be a good series. The Twins have a rested bullpen and their three best starters going against a team that battles in every at bat but still struggles to score runs. I would say that it is up to the offense to step forward and whack the ball around the stadium in Cleveland.

[LastOnePicked]

Leaving Kirilloff at AAA for this upcoming series is ... hard to understand. This organization just seems to lack urgency or a killer instinct. 

[FlyingFinn]

Solano has been really good and yet we have multiple people every week on TD saying that we should DFA him when other people come back from injury. Solano also has never hit the IL this year and plays multiple positions on defense.

[wabene]

D Barrels is on fire with a 2.200 OPS in September, lol. Seriously with this run he is on his season numbers are closing in on his peak years with the Giants in '19 and '20.

[stringer bell]

Glad to see that Varland will be brought up to work out of the bullpen. He might provide another power arm in September and October. Equally puzzled about the languid pace of getting players back from the IL. AK has played in four games in five days and is 7-18 with two homers in those four games. 

[PatPfund]

Gallo is indeed a mystery. Not going to rip the FO for the add, because several of their similarly mystifying moves (like Solano and Castro) have turned out really well. But there comes a time you need to call even your friends into the office a "toughest part of the job" talk, and that time is long past for Joey.

(Now if they'd just put Correa on the IL and give Farmer some extended play at SS; watching Correa gimp home on the Jeffers sacrifice hurt MY feet. Inflamed tendons in the feet are not going to get better without rest, and that is better done before the playoffs.)

[Nine of twelve]

I guess this thread is as good a place as any to post this.

We have 25 games remaining. 3 are against an opponent who currently has a better record than ours.

 The Guardians have 25 games remaining. 15 are against an opponent who currently has a better record than theirs. They have a west coast road trip remaining.

We are 5 games up in the standings.

I don’t gamble on sports but I would take any even odds bet for us to win the division.

[Peter]

Take series against Cleveland and it’s over!!! Time to put division away!!!

[Nine of twelve]

7 minutes ago, Peter said:

Take series against Cleveland and it’s over!!! Time to put division away!!!

For Cleveland this is a must-sweep series. If we win or sweep we’re up 6 or 8 games with 22 remaining. Even leaving Cleveland with a 4-game lead is not unfavorable.

[terrydactyls]

The Twins are stretching out both Varland and Murphy in St. Paul in relief roles.  If they replace Sands and Winder, and the Twins move Maeda or Keuchel to the bullpen, the Twins should have a formidable relief core for the playoffs.  And (as long as I'm dreaming), if Paddock returns in late September, he will be another bullpen arm.

[D.C Twins]

"He's un-rosterable at this point."

Not just at this point, but really ANY point throughout the season!

[D.C Twins]

So clearly Kirilloff is not staying is AAA to shake the rust off.... he's ki-ri-lling it.

And AAA baseball isn't safer than MLB on a shoulder.

And Gallo can barely touch a baseball with his bat.

So.... about that explanation FO/Rocco.... come again?  Ego and Borras say what?!

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 Gallo will be with us to the bitter end. I fully expect him to be rostered for the Wild Card series, but probably won’t play. From there we have to wait and see. 

[Mike Sixel]

His shoulder isn't safer in St Paul.

I'd fire the FO right now.....