There’s One Team Twins Want to Avoid in Postseason

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins all but control their destiny as they look toward ending an 0-for-18 postseason streak. Leading the AL Central, they have an opportunity to host an opening round series at Target Field in October. If they can help it, avoiding the Astros at all costs should be the goal.

 

Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to October baseball, the Twins have not been good. Sure, they won a pair of World Series rings with Tom Kelly multiple decades ago, but the recent trend is so well documented it’s tired. Thankfully they won’t have to match up against the New York Yankees this year as Aaron Boone’s team is terrible, but finding the Houston Astros in the opposite dugout isn’t ideal either.

Right now the Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, and Houston Astros are jockeying atop the AL West division. One of those clubs will win it, with the other two looking like potential wild card teams. Of the three of them, it’s Houston that presents the most daunting opponent.

In 2023, the Twins took the season series against the Astros going 4-2 with a +4 run differential. That pair played earlier in the calendar, and Houston has a new look since finishing with Minnesota. 2022 Cy Young award winner was sent back to his former team after the New York Mets flopped despite spending oodles of cash.

Although their new acquisition at first base, Jose Abreu, hasn’t hit at all, he’s a respected veteran that could find it at any moment. Jose Altuve is back and healthy, and Yordan Alvarez may be among the best power hitters in the game. Add in Kyle Tucker and the lineup is not one to mess with.

The starting rotation isn’t full of horses, but Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander are two extremely good arms to roll out in a short series. The bullpen is still anchored by former Twins reliever Ryan Pressly, and both Bryan Abreu and Hector Neris have had great seasons. Dusty Baker’s team is built to grab a lead, expand on it, and hang on as well.

No matter who Minnesota plays, they’ll likely face an opponent with a better record. That’s fine if it’s the Seattle Mariners or Texas Rangers, both good opponents, but something hits different with Houston. It’s not just who the Astros currently employ, but the fact that they have been in this spot so often in recent history.

Minnesota recently welcomed the Rangers to Target Field for a four-game series and took three out of the four contests. Bruce Bochy’s club has been among the best in baseball all year long, and the lineup is beyond talented. Facing Max Scherzer will never be an enviable task, and they can hit one through nine. Seattle is among the hottest teams in the sport, and Julio Rodriguez appears primed for a postseason impact.

Still though, it's Houston, their pedigree, and the familiarity with bright October lights that makes them scary.

Minnesota will have the benefit of hosting a short series at Target Field given their title as a division winner, but that advantage matters much less than experience. Verlander, leading a team of battle-tested veterans that have already won a World Series together, is a daunting opponent to run up against. Maybe the short series helps Minnesota and pushes the advantage a bit more in their favor, but they’ll undoubtedly have their hands full.

At the end of the day there is nothing the Twins can do to control their opponent. The AL West race will unfold on its own over the course of September, but Minnesota should definitely have a list of preferred outcomes. If it is Houston that comes to Target Field, the Twins will look to exact revenge from the 2020 series that saw Alex Kirilloff make a debut. Beating a juggernaut would be one way to end the losing streak in style.

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[Karbo]

I honestly don't see any of the teams in the running that look like a sure thing. Seattle has great pitching, Texas has a great lineup, and Houston is well balanced, with experience. That leaves Baltimore and Tampa Bay. Show me a matchup that weigh favorably for the Twins. IMO, the Twins only advantage is the top 2 starters should be used (Gray and Lopez) and home field.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The Astros put on their pants just like the Mariners and Rangers. But I do understand what you are saying. I just wish we were playing the current Yankees team. I loathe the Yankees. 

[terrydactyls]

I looked at the latest odds for winning the World Series and the Twins are second to last (only the Brewers have worse odds).  I think any opponent will be a challenge.

[mnfireman]

If the AL West stays close until the final weekend, none of the teams will get a chance to rest players and set their post-season rotations. Same for the AL East.

Best part of the 2023 post-season (so far) - no Yankees!!

[Ricky Vaughn]

30 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I honestly don't see any of the teams in the running that look like a sure thing. Seattle has great pitching, Texas has a great lineup, and Houston is well balanced, with experience. That leaves Baltimore and Tampa Bay. Show me a matchup that weigh favorably for the Twins. IMO, the Twins only advantage is the top 2 starters should be used (Gray and Lopez) and home field.

This says it all

[nicksaviking]

Call me crazy, but I want Tampa. I know it's always the case with them, but their record is better than the players that make up their roster. Except for 2020, that does seem to help them in the regular season, but not in the post season.

[Fat Calvin]

Yeah, they kicked our butt a few years ago, but that's water under the bridge.  It doesn't really matter who we face in the first series.  We're at home.  Bring on the Astros or whomever!

 

[farmerguychris]

I can't see a benefit of worrying about things we can't control.  Win the division, give rest to our weary players when able to do so, and come out ready to play once the post season starts no matter who the opponent is.

[nicksaviking]

Boy, looking at the remaining schedule, Texas, Houston and Seattle play each other a lot. They also have some other tough matchups. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that the Twins end up with the #2 seed. A lot of ground to make up, but the Twins last 16 games has to be the easiest schedule in the whole league.

[Blyleven2011]

It really doesn't matter at this point  but I'd take Texas or Houston  over Seattle  if the playoffs started tomorrow  ,,,

Seattle  has been  awesome  of late , Texas has hit a skid lately  and Houston has just been  steady all season  ...

I talked to a friend in Houston and he doesnt think Houston  is even going to make the playoffs  ...

[Parfigliano]

I'd take HOU.  They know they can beat them and already have.  This is subject to revision if they roll TX at TX.

[HokieRif]

We aren’t (like to) play the Yankees. That’s all I read, and that’s all I needed to hear. 

[Trov]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Boy, looking at the remaining schedule, Texas, Houston and Seattle play each other a lot. They also have some other tough matchups. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that the Twins end up with the #2 seed. A lot of ground to make up, but the Twins last 16 games has to be the easiest schedule in the whole league.

That would be nice to see, sadly we have not beaten some of the teams we really should have over the year.  Right now we are 6.5 games behind Seattle, who cannot seem to lose right now. Of course if they start to lose to Texas or Houston that will help.  If we keep winning we could make up that ground, but I find it unlikely, unless the three really just split against each other.  If either takes over we will not catch them.  

[Craig Arko]

We’re going to have to beat a good team to advance in the post-season. I’m not sure it really matters which one(s).

[jimbo92107]

The team the Twins want to avoid is Detroit. Luckily, that does not appear to be an upcoming problem this season. Everybody else, in my opinion, will be easier to beat. 

[twinstalker]

Houston is the right answer.  They won't touch Verlander or Valdez.

[Boswell]

I’m thinking I’d like a first round team that has “fallen” to #6, rather than a team that has “risen” from #7 in the last week of the regular season.  
 

Some writers have wondered if a WC team will tank in the last week to play the Twins instead of being a #4 or #5 seed.  I’d hope karma takes over at that point!

Just pray for an opponent that isn’t firing on all cylinders and can boot a few grounders or foul off a few meatballs.  It’s baseball!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I looked at the latest odds for winning the World Series and the Twins are second to last (only the Brewers have worse odds).  I think any opponent will be a challenge.

I'd  like to rephrase that to say the Twins have the 10th best chance of winning the World Series out of all 30 of the the major league teams. Maybe even better odds than that, since all 3 of the 1st round of playoff games that the Twins play will be at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota!

[jkcarew]

I think I’d concur…Hou probably the least favorable matchup…at least out of the West.

[Whitey333]

Great article.  You are right.  Houston would be a tough opponent