Keuchel Opts out of Contract, How Will the Twins Respond?

[Althebum82]

He is ready to move ahead in his mission to return to the major leagues:  Former Cy Young winner opts out of contract (msn.com)

[Maybebaby]

Let him walk!  Stick with the youngsters!

[Mortimerkenny21]

Hmm, so what was the point of that? Get him conditioned up and looking the part so another team can scoop him up? Either we dodged a bullet or we're going to look foolish.

[IaBeanCounter]

I think this is worse than not making any trades.  You could have DFAd Gallo to make room on the 40 man.  His veteran presence would have been helpful to the younger pitchers.  The starters are showing signs of fatigue.  The FO will look like idoits if a starter goes down and Keuchel is effective for some other team.  I don't know what his MLB contract would have been, but this late in the season it would have been a good addition.  Much like the '87 Twins getting Don Baylor.

[Guest]

They signed him for 1) injury insurance in case any of the five SPs went down, and 2) to plug in if anyone offered them a deal for Gray or Maeda they couldn't refuse.  

I'd rather have Keuchel than Gallo on the team now.  Each of the starting five could skip a turn down the stretch.

[IaBeanCounter]

I reacted before reading the article as it sounds like the Twins have a couple of days to add him.  I hope they do add him.  How many AAA pitchers have an ERA 1.13?   

[Jocko87]

15 minutes ago, IaBeanCounter said:

I reacted before reading the article as it sounds like the Twins have a couple of days to add him.  I hope they do add him.  How many AAA pitchers have an ERA 1.13?   

They do have a couple days. The opt out is procedural at this point. We will find out a lot in the next couple days. I’d be hard pressed to let him go vs keeping some of the chaff on the 40 man.  He’s shown all he could at AAA and they had to have a plan for this possibility. 

[Cris E]

He left, and good luck to him.  But let's face it, 6 starts of 1.13 ERA should get you more than 32 IP. If he was really pitching that well he should have been able to go deeper than 6 innings at least once. After the bad smells that Archer and Bundy left in the clubhouse last season burning down the bullpen he won't get a chance in MN. Flavine did learn something from 2022.

[IaBeanCounter]

2 minutes ago, Cris E said:

He left, and good luck to him.  But let's face it, 6 starts of 1.13 ERA should get you more than 32 IP. If he was really pitching that well he should have been able to go deeper than 6 innings at least once. After the bad smells that Archer and Bundy left in the clubhouse last season burning down the bullpen he won't get a chance in MN. Flavine did learn something from 2022.

I think he started out with an innings or pitch limit.  He worked up to 6 innings.  Could he work longer, I don't know?  

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, Mortimerkenny21 said:

Hmm, so what was the point of that? Get him conditioned up and looking the part so another team can scoop him up? Either we dodged a bullet or we're going to look foolish.

The point was always to have him as a backup in case there was an injury in the rotation.  The rotation stayed healthy so he wasn't needed.  I really don't think this should be something fans should be angsty over.  He's not going to be good in the majors if he does get a shot somewhere else.

[2wins87]

30 minutes ago, IaBeanCounter said:

I reacted before reading the article as it sounds like the Twins have a couple of days to add him.  I hope they do add him.  How many AAA pitchers have an ERA 1.13?   

He had a 2.31 ERA in AAA last year.  I'll let you look up his major league ERA last year yourself.

[jimbo92107]

We all know Dallas Keuchel is about as talented as a non-fireball pitcher gets. Now, he appears to be healthy once again. Could the Twins use a left-handed Maeda? Could they stash Keuchel in the bullpen as long relief and to let a starter skip a turn? 

On a team whose starters and relievers appear to be running out of gas, a guy like Dallas Keuchel could be a real help. Let's cheat and offer him money!

[IndianaTwin]

40 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

They do have a couple days. The opt out is procedural at this point. We will find out a lot in the next couple days. I’d be hard pressed to let him go vs keeping some of the chaff on the 40 man.  He’s shown all he could at AAA and they had to have a plan for this possibility. 

I don’t think the 40-man is an issue. DeLeon, Alcala and now likely Stewart would both be candidates for moving to the 60-day IL. 

[jorgenswest]

I think they have a few days to try to trade him also. He isn’t on the major league rster and I don’t think he is subject to the deadline. Anyone confirm?

[IndianaTwin]

3 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I think they have a few days to try to trade him also. He isn’t on the major league rster and I don’t think he is subject to the deadline. Anyone confirm?

Things I’ve read would corroborate that the Twins have a few days.

The opt-out date is not specifically tied to the trading deadline, though it could well be that the presence of that date was a factor in their jointly deciding on Aug. 1 as the opt-out date. 

[Jocko87]

18 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I don’t think the 40-man is an issue. DeLeon, Alcala and now likely Stewart would both be candidates for moving to the 60-day IL. 

True, it will have to be a ML spot but it does require a 40 man move. I figure they will do the easy thing with Winder or whoever is up now rather than a tough but needed move, sadly.

[IndianaTwin]

10 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

True, it will have to be a ML spot but it does require a 40 man move. I figure they will do the easy thing with Winder or whoever is up now rather than a tough but needed move, sadly.

If Ryan struggles again tomorrow evening, I’d like to see him get an IL stint. 

[pierre75275]

6 hours ago, IaBeanCounter said:

I reacted before reading the article as it sounds like the Twins have a couple of days to add him.  I hope they do add him.  How many AAA pitchers have an ERA 1.13?   

The ERA is good. His FIP I believe is 4.11. That doesnt mean everything of course but it does point to him being lucky.

[Peter]

With him opting out can we still get him on team

[chpettit19]

Fascinating to see people ignore his last 2 seasons of major league pitching for 6 AAA starts that he didn't exactly dominate. I want nothing to do with Dallas Keuchel in a Twins uniform. As emergency depth in AAA for a month? Cool. But actively going out of your way to find a place for him on the active roster? No way. His ERA was pretty, but he gave up as many hits as strikeouts, and had a 1.25 WHIP which was higher than most of his MLB WHIPs when he was a useful pitcher.

His ERA last year in the bigs was 9.20. That's not a typo. 9.20 ERA. It was 5.28 in 2021. I know we've been starved for pitching since Santana left, but this is basically begging the Twins to add Joey Gallo to the team because he blasted 9 HRs in a month in AAA while striking out 45% of the time. Dallas Keuchel is an addition you make if you sold your real major league pitchers at the deadline, not a move you make if you're attempting to actually win this division.

[dex8425]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Fascinating to see people ignore his last 2 seasons of major league pitching for 6 AAA starts that he didn't exactly dominate. I want nothing to do with Dallas Keuchel in a Twins uniform. As emergency depth in AAA for a month? Cool. But actively going out of your way to find a place for him on the active roster? No way. His ERA was pretty, but he gave up as many hits as strikeouts, and had a 1.25 WHIP which was higher than most of his MLB WHIPs when he was a useful pitcher.

His ERA last year in the bigs was 9.20. That's not a typo. 9.20 ERA. It was 5.28 in 2021. I know we've been starved for pitching since Santana left, but this is basically begging the Twins to add Joey Gallo to the team because he blasted 9 HRs in a month in AAA while striking out 45% of the time. Dallas Keuchel is an addition you make if you sold your real major league pitchers at the deadline, not a move you make if you're attempting to actually win this division.

Agreed. I would've liked to see him traded, but apparently the other teams have the same view as you and I-he's not worth much. 

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

They signed him for 1) injury insurance in case any of the five SPs went down, and 2) to plug in if anyone offered them a deal for Gray or Maeda they couldn't refuse.  

I'd rather have Keuchel than Gallo on the team now.  Each of the starting five could skip a turn down the stretch.

Completely agree!

Kuechel has been insurance and a fallback after a possible trade.

They need to utilize him for resting starters in August. I think Maeda is good after time he missed in May/June & with his rebuilt arm. Would like to get Ryan - Ober to miss a couple starts & Gray & Lopez 1 each. Not that big of a risk - run him out there twice and see how it goes. It’s a cheap, low risk way to get guys rest!

I assume we can sign him if we choose to pursue.

[FlyingFinn]

I would bring Kuechel up and have him as the long man in the bullpen. He may not pitch for two weeks but then he will eat up innings in a game where we are getting blown out and save our pen for the next day. Also, a younger guy can get more regular work in with the Saints.

[nicksaviking]

I had no interest in his smoke and mirror show going anywhere near the rotation. I thought he might have made sense in the bullpen though. Seems like the Twins would have at least tried that, unless the guy was adamant about starting and the Twins gave him his wish.

[Dman]

If the starting arms are getting tired and Kuechel can spell them I don't know why you wouldn't give him a shot. They have room on the 40 man.  So he gives up 9 runs his first time out.  Can't be worse than some of the starts we got from Ryan, Gray and Ober recently.  If he doesn't perform well at some point then just DFA him nothing lost but at least you know if he was going to be effective\usable or not.  Not sure I understand the angst of at least giving him a shot to see if the driveline improvements were actual tangible improvements or not.  Yeah the Twins would be out some money but it seems worth the risk unless you really just don't think he can do it anymore.

The shinny 1.13 ERA at AAA doesn't really impress me much especially with his FIP where it is, but K rate isn't horrible and the WHIP is a little high but in range for a starter.  If the Twins could keep him in AAA as insurance that would be ideal but odds are he can find a home with some team after the deadline.  I still feel like Varland is the next man up regardless but after him it is mighty slim pickings as Headrick has imploded and there really isn't any one else behind him unless SWR continues to pitch well down the stretch.

I am fine with whatever the Twins do.  Kuechel isn't going to be an ace and likely can barely hang onto a number 5 spot and the Twins have other options but I also wouldn't be opposed to them taking a look if they think it can help out the rotation.

[CRF]

I guess we'll find out in a day or two. I honestly don't see him helping on the major league roster, and I'm not sure why we signed him in the first place. Unless we finally dump Gallo, to bring up Keuchel, I'm fine with him leaving the organization. 

[IaBeanCounter]

I look at putting Keuchel on the active roster as an extremely low risk/high reward situation.  As Dman stated he could revert into a pumpkin and is DFAd after 1 or 2 starts.   Many posters believe that will be the case and I respect their opinions.  Since they can make room on the 40 man roster by putting people on the 60 day IL, the Twins wouldn't be losing anyone.    

Keuchel has made some mechanical changes in his delivery that have improved his velocity from his 2022 disaster.  This is the high reward part of the equation.  If he can become close to the 2020 Keuchel 6-2 with 1.99 ERA he would be an asset to the Twins (or any other team that signs him).

I look at Keuchel as being similar to Don Baylor in 1987.  Baylor (38 years old) was hitting .239 for Boston when the Twins acquired him on August 31st.  In limited duty he hit .286 (.703 OPS) during the remainder of the regular season .400 (.900 OPS) against Detroit and .385 (1.082 OPS) against St. Louis. 

I am hoping that I remember Keuchel in the same way I remember Baylor.    

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

I would bring Kuechel up and have him as the long man in the bullpen. He may not pitch for two weeks but then he will eat up innings in a game where we are getting blown out and save our pen for the next day. Also, a younger guy can get more regular work in with the Saints.

This is assuming that Kuechel has any interest in going to the bullpen, and all reports I've heard to date have said he is not. he clearly thinks he can still start for a MLB club. And there's a real question whether or not he can actually get anyone out at the MLB level any longer.

no one wanted to take a chance on him this spring. he was dreadful last year for 3 different teams. He was bad in 2021. 2020 is looking more and more like a small sample size fluke, a last gasp that worked out.

I was fine with the Twins bringing him in to AAA as a "break glass in case of emergency" pitcher...but there's still little to suggest he's going to be effective in MLB again.

[2wins87]

3 hours ago, IaBeanCounter said:

Keuchel has made some mechanical changes in his delivery that have improved his velocity from his 2022 disaster.  This is the high reward part of the equation.  If he can become close to the 2020 Keuchel 6-2 with 1.99 ERA he would be an asset to the Twins (or any other team that signs him).

He may have made mechanical adjustments but there is data on velocity in AAA, and in his last start he averaged 87.2 with his sinker, and he didn't average higher than 87.1 in any other start.  He averaged 87.2 on the season last year, so his velocity has actually been slightly down.

It's not that velocity is the make or break factor for a pitcher like him, but I still can't see the high reward side.

[Doctor Wu]

I'm at the point where I think the Twins might as well sign him and bring him up. With the recent injuries to some of the bullen arms, plus Ryan's poor recent performances, it wouldn't hurt to have another capable arm in the rotation, or even to use in the bullpen. Not sure if the "veteran factor" will help us that much, but Keuchel has an impressive resume, and I think it's worth a try.