Did Standing Pat Make (Some) Sense?

[DocBauer]

I appreciate the OP. You did a fine job going over every scenario of buying or sell and made compelling arguments at every point. Well done!

And I 100% agree selling would have been a mistake unless someone made you a really good offer that would be hard to pass up. I did have a real sense Larnach and a B level prospect might be moved for a RH bat for a team looking to do the same as the Twins, balance out a lineup. And there might have even been an arm coming back the Twins way, probably a rental. Of course, it didn't happen. But for any chance to actually win the division...not just limp to the finish line...and have any sort of real chance to win an actual playoff game, much less a possible series, they need to keep the bullets they have now. 

Where I have to disagree, at least somewhat, and where I definitely have issues with the FO, is the idea there was A] Nobody to acquire, and B] That the cost of any acquisition would put any further drain on the system. 

Underperforming or not, as a FO, your team actually has a very good chance to win the division, hang a banner, and hopefully/possibly win a playoff game or two. That's worth adding to actually help your team! And the goal each and every season is to reach the playoffs. From there it's a new season of possibility.

Falvey or Levine...I forget which at the moment...stated that so many of their targets, and conversations they had with teams, fell apart at the end because they decided to not sell. Huh? As a FO, you are admitting to me that you were SO FOCUSED on such a limited scale that you couldn't pivot or consider other players on other teams? Isn't that your job?

I keep thinking about the Dyson and Romo trades a few years ago. Forget that Dyson turned out to be unknown damaged goods. They were a pair of smart acquisitions that cost virtually nothing but a handful of fliers. And that was what this team needed for the pen, just a couple solid arms, and nothing extravagant. Were there fewer teams trading this year? Yes. Did some teams pull back? Yes. But there were STILL decent, solid arms moved that weren't expensive. And we couldn't land ONE?

I admit the market for a platoon type RH bat to at least HELP against LHP seemed smaller than expected. But a complete whiff? Even old friend Crone at 1B would have been serviceable help. 

But my biggest issue is ZERO for the pen other than the solid Floro. I can actually see potential future help from Sands, Winder, Balazovic, Headrick, and a few others. Maybe even a return of Alcala next year. But I don't want to bank on those guys for this year. So yes, even a 4.00 ERA guy that is similar to Floro...but with decent peripherals as ERA never tells a true story...would have been welcome, was needed, wouldn't have cost a lot. And if said arm "fit" the team, they could be a re-sign in the offseason, the way Fulmer SHOULD have been.

I also agree that the younger players need to play. The FO has come to this conclusion as well, though it appears somewhat grudgingly at times. Julien and Lewis and Kirilloff aren't going anywhere. Jeffers has earned more time. And they FINALLY seem to have figured out Wallner deserves to stay up. 

I am curious about the $60M freed up this offseason to make changes and additions. Are you including Kepler in that group? Unless he collapses the rest of the way, I'm not convinced he's gone and that they will pick up his $10M option. And if Maeda finishes the season as good as he's been since he's built himself back up again, I'm not so sure the Twins might not want him back again for around $14-15M. That hedges bets on Paddack, gives them 6 starters along with Varland, and offers great potential depth for the rotation similar to how this season began, with no need for a major trade or a $20M FA...much less some Bundy-type filler piece.

Just saying that $60M might end up closer to $35, but that might be more than enough to add a very nice RH bat, and a couple solid BP arms on 1 or 2yr deals to really beef up the pen.

But that's for 2024. I want to see the vets rebound these final couple of months and I want the young talent to play and get the opportunity to develop and prove themselves. You can do that, get ready for next year, and still have them helping this team CLAIM the ALC and try to make a little post season noise.

My biggest issue is if the FO had just brought back Fulmer for the pen, and added a solid RH bat in the last offseason...$ only and no talent dealt...this trading deadline might have been very different. It might have been a single BP arm to maintain depth. Or I might have been for a bigger arm. Maybe a RH OF with control for now and 2024 and beyond. Maybe a combination of both. But because they went 90% in and not 100% in the last offseason, they were stuck this deadline making excuses how they couldn't add.

 

[Beast]

No.  Absolutely not.  Doing nothing only makes sense when you’re on vacation.  If you’re not trying to win now, or accumulate young talent to try to win at some point in the future, you’re doing damage to your franchise.

It’s not a baseball strategy to stand pat.  It was a business strategy (and a bad short sighted one).

They were never giving up prospects to buy.  They’re not that dumb.  They don’t have the ammo go get to elite guys, and anything else was just rearranging deck chairs on the titanic (Tommy “stabbed at a strip club” Pham wasn’t getting this team anywhere).

Selling was the move.  They (whoever that is between ownership or FO) wouldn’t do that out of fear of losing attendance/revenue.

This year is gone.  Sitting here watching them their butts kicked by the Cardinals (getting shut out again), I don’t care about winning the division.  I don’t care about playoffs.  They don’t deserve to be called a playoff team.  They stink.  They don’t deserve to sneak into the playoffs, win one game in a series, and be celebrated for ending that steak.  They deserve every bit of criticism, calls for hot seats, etc.  All they’ve earned here is to be fired.

Anyway, long story short, forgoing the opportunity to add to the prospect pool was a mistake, in my opinion.

[LA Vikes Fan]

17 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm baffled by the idea that you could trade Sonny Gray and simply plug Keuchel in as if there's not going to be a significant difference. Gray was an all-star this year and deserved the nod. Keuchel hasn't been an acceptable MLB pitcher since 2020. yes, he's put up relatively gaudy numbers in AAA, but there's definitely some smoke and mirrors involved there and pitches that can fool AAA kids will get you murdered in MLB.

I would have liked them to get a RHP for the bullpen, but I can't say i loved a lot of the options that were actually out there. A RH bat for the OF would have bene nice, but would have been more impactful month ago. If we'd outbid for Tommy Pham, we're still only talking about another 50-60 ABs against LHP for the rest of the season, right? There wasn't much on the position player market that impressed, at least not to fill what the Twins needed.

Honestly, I think the biggest failure by the Twins FO at the deadline was not admitting that the Gallo experiment has failed and finding a way to move on from him, even if it meant cutting him and not replacing him with a RH bat. Gallo had a great start, but hasn't been good since. he was dreadful in July and looks very much like 2022 Gallo, sadly. It's 3 bad months vs 1 good one. Accept the sunk cost and move on, even if Royce isn't ready to come back yet.

I completely agree on Gallo. Whether or not you initially agreed with Gallo experiment - I thought it was worth a shot - it failed. We're 2/3 of the way through the season. The chances of a comeback by Gallo are small. Time to DFA him and either bring up Larnach or Stevenson, or grab a RH DFA guy like Trey Mancini. I'd bring up Larnach and move on. 

Also agree on trades but for a different reason. We couldn't make an impactful trade because don't have much to trade. The Saints are are collection of AAAA players for the most part and we needed to keep the "real" prospects we had there or at AA. We just don't have a lot of guys that other teams want. 

[saviking]

On 8/1/2023 at 7:09 PM, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

With the Guardians losing ace Shane Bieber and trading Josh Bell/Aaron Civale, they seem out of contention. Not to mention that their schedule looks pretty difficult (@HOU/vsCWS/vsTOR/@TB/@CIN/vsDET/vsLAD/@TOR/@MIN/vsTB/vsMIN/@LAA/@SF/vsTEX/@KC/vsBAL/vsCIN/@DET) (13 series against contenders) and they generally have not played great baseball this year. The White Sox, Tigers, and Royals all sold and were not ever going to threaten the Twins.

Why Selling Didn't Make Sense

While it's hard to imagine where the Twins would be without Jhoan Duran and Joe Ryan, the Twins did not have an Eduardo Escobar or Nelson Cruz to trade this offseason. Per BTV, the values of Gallo (-0.7M), Gray (6.2M), Kepler (-0.4M), Maeda (4.1M), Pagan (-0.4M), Solano (0.8M), and Taylor (1.1M) don't give the Twins an opportunity to reap a big reward. For reference, Jose Salas of .181/.268/.265 (yes, his OBP is better than his slugging percentage) has a median value of 7.7M, and Aaron Sabato, a career .210 hitter in the minors, has a value of 1.5M. Selling Maeda, Gray, Taylor, and Kepler would not have improved the Twins' future outlook in any meaningful way, while drastically hampering the present.

Why Buying Didn't Make Sense

The Twins are not going to get anything done offensively unless Correa, Buxton, and Polanco step up. All three have had issues this year, and it is hard to imagine the team doing anything in September/October without at least two of those three returning to the all-star caliber players we know they are. As such, adding a bat like Dylan Carlson (who puts up league-average numbers) was not going to put the team over the top. The marginal difference between Max Kepler and Dylan Carlson was not worth the E-Rod+a top 30 prospect that it would have required.

Adding a bullpen arm or two did make a lot of sense, especially since Stewart is probably done for the year. I am not going to sit here and defend the FO on this, but adding a mid-leverage rental arm with a 4.00 ERA doesn't add a ton of value. In the next couple of weeks, Thielbar will come back (thus pushing Moran into the low-leverage role he deserves), and he'll form a good leverage corps with Duran and Jax. Floro/Balazovic/Pagan can pitch mid-leverage, and Moran/Ortega/AAA guy can get spoon-fed low-leverage. Certainly not optimal, but this is the best 'pen the Twins have had in my lifetime outside of maybe 2020.

What Next?

I wrote a topic a couple of weeks ago about how the Twins should consider 2024 when making their moves, since they lose a large number of veterans. After this year, the Twins' payroll drops more than $60M, and they need to figure out a few key spots. They'll need to add a reliable starter (unless you think Paddack and Varland can step into the opening-day roster), a leverage arm (unless you want to hitch your wagon to Stewart/Moran/Alcala), and an outfielder or two (unless you feel great about Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, and Nick Gordon with half a leg). This is more than accomplishable with $60M. However, they may still make some trades if they can't sign any of the top guys.

The Twins made their splashes in the winter and last summer. They have a lot of depth but not enough depth where they can get anything meaningful in a trade. Next year, they are set up nicely with a ton of unused budget and a relatively few holes to fill in reference to the amount of cash they have. The '23 Twins will likely make the postseason, and it's paramount that guys like Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Julien, Lewis, Duran, and Kirilloff get some experience. It's disappointing they didn't add anyone except Dylan Floro, but any middling move we, as fans, wanted would have drained more of the farm system and not seriously increased our chances. Selling would have netted next to nothing and hurt the development of our young players.

Actually the Twins did make a big move at the deadline. They didn't trade Gray ...

[Riverbrian]

On 8/1/2023 at 7:09 PM, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Why Buying Didn't Make Sense

The Twins are not going to get anything done offensively unless Correa, Buxton, and Polanco step up.

What if they do step up? 

[HokieRif]

I have a couple different perspectives.  Did it makes sense to make trades if our goal was to get to the playoffs?  No.  I think we have a better than 50/50 chance to make it given the state of the division and our upcoming schedule.  Did it make sense to make a trade if our goal was to get beyond the first round?  Yes.

The other thing I keep thinking about is that 1) we didn't have anyone on the current roster that a) we were willing to part and b) that someone wanted. 2) We didn't have anyone on the farm that we could afford to lose or nobody wanted what we had. 

Either way you look at that second part, its not good.  We're either lacking depth, lacking talent, or both, and that doesn't give me a lot of confidence that this alleged rebuild for long-term sustainable success is remotely close to working for the front office.

[Unwinder]

I'm not pleased with this trade deadline, but I think it's something that we're going to see more of with expanded playoffs. With more buyers and fewer sellers, I think standing pat is going to be an increasingly popular option for mediocre teams.

[Riverbrian]

It's easy for me to say that no action at the trade deadline was a huge mistake. So... Easy for me that I believe that I have actually said that. 

However... I have no information on who they tried to acquire, if they tried at all or the ask from the other teams. 

In my head, I imagine that discipline would be very important attribute that major league front offices must have.  

[ziggy]

I wonder if the front office called the Reds and offered to trade Mahle for Steer and CHS?

 

After last years deadline deals I don't blame the front office for being gunshy about making any trades.

[NotAboutWinning]

26 minutes ago, ziggy said:

I wonder if the front office called the Reds and offered to trade Mahle for Steer and CHS?

 

After last years deadline deals I don't blame the front office for being gunshy about making any trades.

Last year’s abject failure shouldn’t mean you freeze and do nothing. It should mean you learn from it and do better!

[Nine of twelve]

7 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

What if they do step up? 

They will go from a mediocre team by regular season standards to a mediocre team by postseason standards.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

On 8/2/2023 at 10:26 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

No, standing pat did not make sense. I didn't expect or even want huge additions but a capable RH bat and a capable RH reliever were eminently gettable. The front office didn't clear that relatively low bar.

In a bubble, this is probably true.  But with the cupboard relatively bare in the minors at the moment, would you have rather seen them overpay for Tommy Pham?  Tommy might give the Twins 1 win?  This low bar you are referring to always comes at a cost.  While I don't agree with this line of thought, they are probably feeling a little hammered after last year's moves.

The Twins biggest issue is 75% of the players they have are not playing to the level they should be.  That is not going to be fixed by a minor deadline deal.

[Brandon]

We can still get that right handed bat as Trey Mancini and Luke Voit can be had for prorated league minimum.

[dxpavelka]

No sense in making a deal just to make a deal. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

11 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

In a bubble, this is probably true.  But with the cupboard relatively bare in the minors at the moment, would you have rather seen them overpay for Tommy Pham?  Tommy might give the Twins 1 win?  This low bar you are referring to always comes at a cost.  While I don't agree with this line of thought, they are probably feeling a little hammered after last year's moves.

The Twins biggest issue is 75% of the players they have are not playing to the level they should be.  That is not going to be fixed by a minor deadline deal.

Pham was traded for a player in low A. The cost was negligible and wouldn't impact the Twins for many years, if ever.

Is there a risk there? Sure, but it's a small one that probably doesn't effect this front office because if they don't win more games, they won't be here if that player reaches the majors anyway.

[Dave Borton]

I would have sold.

Once WSox went on a "bench clearing" spree AND Cleveland began to dump, I would have reviewed my phone calls and notes from other clubs on every proposed trade. I would have hit the "sell" button on anyone for whom I could get excellent prospects.

Twins are going nowhere post-season. They could have limped into 1st place regardless of whom they traded away. Bring up the youth, hungry for jobs, and deliver a .500 season.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

23 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Pham was traded for a player in low A. The cost was negligible and wouldn't impact the Twins for many years, if ever.

Is there a risk there? Sure, but it's a small one that probably doesn't effect this front office because if they don't win more games, they won't be here if that player reaches the majors anyway.

The cost is perceived negligible,  but we thought Cano was negligible move last year as well.  The other is in the Pham trade, I think Rodriguez is a player the Mets targeted most likely.   Cost may have been perceived much higher for a Twins prospect.  Thats beside the point.  

In another article it state the Twins management must feel pretty comfortable for 2024 and I think they do.   The only way they don't is if the wheels completely fall off at the MLB level and I just don't see that happening.   This is a very strong team if Buxton and Correa are performing . . . as of yet they are not.  I have more concerns about Buxton than Correa in the future.  

I still think this is a slightly flawed team but one that could catch lightning in a bottle,  I just think this has and always was going to be a slightly flawed team.  This was never a year that the Twins were expected to be one of the top teams.   Last year I felt the same way and felt they used way to much capital in its trades.  Its slightly bit them, but with primary infield bats lost,  that is not something I am worried about for the Twins in the near term.  

As to successful season,  I am fine with getting to the playoffs and getting a win or two or winning a series.   Ultimately I want Maeda, Pablo, Gray to pitch very well down the stretch.  Maeda and Gray so we can get potential get compensation in next years draft.  Pablo because I want him to assert that he is a #1 pitcher,  and I think he will do that as we close the season.  It would be great if Ryan's tired arm is just that, however, I would understand if we will have to wait til next season to see him back performing at a high level.  

I wonder what Twinsdaily would have been like in the mid to late 90's if it existed.   Here we have a ton of consternation over a team middling along and leadership that has given us slightly above .500 teams over its term for the last 7 years and whether they should have made a move at the deadline or not.  

[terrydactyls]

I've read all the responses to the OP.  There are many "opinions" being offered up as facts.  Saying things like "The Twins were wrong to..." or "The Twins could have signed..." are not facts.  Doing nothing (or selling or buying for that matter) isn't wrong if you don't know the circumstances behind the decision.  It's possible the Twins were attempting to do all the moves mentioned above (obviously not at the same time) but the trading partners didn't make any offers worth the move.  And, I know Pham was traded for an A-level prospect but maybe the Mets didn't give the Twins a chance to increase their offer.  We don't know.  There are a lot of assumptions made in the comments above that have no concrete evidence to support them.  The only fact I know is that I had an opinion about what I would have liked the Twins to do but it didn't happen.  Was the Twins' decision right or wrong?  We'll never know without all the details of what went on leading up to the deadline.  And that ain't going to happen!

[insagt1]

Think the Guardians decided to do a mini houseclean at the deadline because they felt they could still take the Twins out...and sort of appease their fans? So they sort of 'went for it'?

There will aways remain the debate whether you always plan 'for the future' (and sometimes it never comes) or try to win 'now' while the chance exists? Another reason why baseball is a great game...you play everyday. Stuff happens.

[spanman2]

On 8/2/2023 at 11:30 AM, Sjoski said:

Love the headline....I was at the last game the Twins won...... Joe May pitched I believe. All downhill since....Just checked.....Twins won a game in 2003 vs NYY....this was the last win at home....so Twins are 1-22 in last 23 playoff games.

 

 

 

I was there...Dome was ROCKING!!!  Seems like forever ago because it was.  I think they were gassed from the A'S series.  I am old enough to remember '87 and obviously '91.  That '02 team was so fun to watch.  They had the bleep the baseball world mentality and we will show you!!!  Lots of Moxy and confident players!!! 

[dxpavelka]

On 8/4/2023 at 8:23 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Pham was traded for a player in low A. The cost was negligible and wouldn't impact the Twins for many years, if ever.

Is there a risk there? Sure, but it's a small one that probably doesn't effect this front office because if they don't win more games, they won't be here if that player reaches the majors anyway.

You may be right.  In a vacuum, Pham's presence might not impact the Twins for many years.  His biggest impact MIGHT have been preventing Joey Gallo from breaking the team strikeout record.  Personally, I'd DFA Gallo and HOPE that Wallner or Larnach or Austin Martin or Kala'i Rosario would make a breakthrough, have a magical, Randy Arozerana type post-season run and put a choke hold on LF for the next three quarters of a decade.  But, alas, HOPE is not a sound strategy so we've claimed Jordan Luplow.  If MLB bans right handed pitching this will be a home run move.

 

[Twins33]

I wanted the Twins to add a RH OF and another reliever, like everyone else. The players available seemed pretty blah when I was looking at who was available or who might be. So am I disappointed they didn’t do more? Yes. Am I mad? No.