How Much Does Sonny Gray Get Paid?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins acquired Sonny Gray to help bolster a pitching staff that badly needed help. He’s now in the final year of his deal and has added another all-star appearance to his resume. What does the payday look like this offseason?

 

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

After flaming out in New York, and being relatively snakebit by a small ballpark, the Cincinnati Reds signed Sonny Gray to a five-year deal worth $50.7 million as a 29-year-old. He rewarded them by making the all-star team during his first season and wound up finishing seventh in the Cy Young voting.

It was clear Gray wasn’t going to be a part of Cincinnati’s direction heading into 2022, and Minnesota swung a trade headlined by prospect Chase Petty. Rocco Baldelli needed all the help he could get with a rotation that heavily featured Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, so it was Gray that led the group.

Fast-forward to where we are now, and Gray is again among the best pitchers in baseball. He owned a 2.89 ERA with a 2.85 FIP across his first 15 starts. Although run support hasn’t been there for him, his 9.1 K/9 is above his career average, and his 0.3 HR/9 is a career best that leads the league. His last two outings have not been good, but Minnesota is certainly hoping the rest of the season can revert to his pre-all-star form.

Having not signed an extension with the Twins, and barreling toward a postseason run, a relatively straightforward plan of action would be for Gray to walk during the offseason. The Twins have internal depth for the rotation with the likes of Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, and others. They will certainly look to add an arm or two, but Gray’s price tag and age could keep Minnesota from favoring a long-term deal.

It goes almost without saying that the Twins will offer Gray a Qualifying Offer. Should he return on a one-year deal around $20 million, the club would be ecstatic. If they net an additional draft pick out of it instead, and someone else pays him crazy money, so be it.

What do those dollars look like though? There is some good precedent from the 2023 offseason. Gray will be 34 next year and his performance puts him right in line with Chris Bassitt. Both Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker are younger, but neither had pitched quite as well. Gray doesn’t have the top end of Jacob deGrom or Carlos Rodon, but he doesn’t bring the injury history either. Looking over Tyler Anderson, a secondary comp could be in line with what the Rangers did for Nathan Eovaldi.

The Bassitt and Eovaldi deals were three and two years, respectively. The former got an average annual value of $21 million while the latter grabbed $17 million annually. Eovaldi has been a substantially better pitcher this year, and he could go down as one of the best signings from the offseason. 

Gray’s representation will be looking for a multi-year deal, and targeting the Bassitt contract as a floor makes a good deal of sense. Teams could point to Evoaldi’s number as a starting point, but it will be hard to use that valuation given how vastly he has outperformed the deal in year one.

A downside for Gray’s tactics will be the talent competing for the same dollars as free agents. Shohei Ohtani is a unicorn and in a class of his own, but aging superstars like Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw are there. Marcus Stroman seems in line for a payday and Martin Perez has been solid for the Rangers. Aaron Nola and Blake Snell are both free agents, and so too are Lucas Giolito and Julio Urias.

Ultimately, it seems unlikely the Twins would want to go three years on a deal with Gray. The familiarity is there, and he has been great this season often pitching deeper into games while displaying enhanced stuff. Minnesota grabbing a younger arm or someone they believe could have untapped potential seems alluring, but playing more in the pond of a one or two-year pact seems like this organization’s sweet spot.

I’d expect Gray to want something like $75 million over three years as his last substantial payday. He may get slightly less than that, but his second half could definitely dictate the extent of his negotiations. Either way, it seems more likely than not that Sonny Gray returning to Minnesota for 2024 won’t be in the cards.

What do you think the current Twins starter gets on his next deal? What would you be comfortable with Minnesota offering him?

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[Karbo]

I don't see Gray staying here unless he gets the most $$ here. I just don't think he's happy here.

[Dman]

I think 3/75 is what his side will ask for.  Whether they can get it or not just depends on how other teams see Gray. To me he isn't an official number 1 like Sherzer\Verlander but also not too far off.  I think a three year deal at 20M per year seems like the floor if he stays healthy and continues to pitch well.  If he falls of in the second half might be more in line with 15 to 17 per year.

I don't think the Twins go three years with Gray.  They have invested in Lopez and have Ryan and Ober with Paddack on the way back.  I think they will be OK without him but who knows for sure what will happen. I never saw them resigning Correa either.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

5 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think 3/75 is what his side will ask for.  Whether they can get it or not just depends on how other teams see Gray. To me he isn't an official number 1 like Sherzer\Verlander but also not too far off.  I think a three year deal at 20M per year seems like the floor if he stays healthy and continues to pitch well.  If he falls of in the second half might be more in line with 15 to 17 per year.

I don't think the Twins go three years with Gray.  They have invested in Lopez and have Ryan and Ober with Paddack on the way back.  I think they will be OK without him but who knows for sure what will happen. I never saw them resigning Correa either.

I think this hits all the talking points.  We know all it takes is some crazy team (hello NYM), but 3 yrs sounds about right.  The dollar range sounds about right, but it would not surprise me to see an AAV closer to $30.

The Twins probably already know if they are close to what Grey's camp is asking for.

[Brandon]

3 year 70-75 million or 4th year at an extra 10-15 million.

[Dman]

7 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I think this hits all the talking points.  We know all it takes is some crazy team (hello NYM), but 3 yrs sounds about right.  The dollar range sounds about right, but it would not surprise me to see an AAV closer to $30.

The Twins probably already know if they are close to what Grey's camp is asking for.

Totally agree it could be crazy money for the team that believes in him.  30M per wouldn't surprise me at all for a team needy for pitching with higher payroll dollars. Just go out and win any bidding war and call it a day.  He isn't real young though so he needs to prove he can handle things the rest of this season.

[tony&rodney]

I was thinking that three years and about $57 million sounds good for Sonny Gray. I do not think the Twins should be in on him.

[Major League Ready]

I would not try to speculate until we see how he pitches the rest of the year.  There will be a stark contrast if he pitches like his 1st 10 starts for the rest of the year vs his last 10 starts where he has had an ERA of 4.5 and a xFIP of 4.29 with a K rate of 7.69.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I would not try to speculate until we see how he pitches the rest of the year.  There will be a stark contrast if he pitches like his 1st 10 starts for the rest of the year vs his last 10 starts where he has had an ERA of 4.5 and a xFIP of 4.29 with a K rate of 7.69.

Hopefully he pitches the remainder of the year like his first ten starts. You make a good point about early speculation but I'm not wanting to sign Gray for market value even if he does finish the year strong. 

[SwainZag]

The only way I think he stays in a Twin is if he accepts a qualifying offer.  I can't see the Twins even thinking about offering what he could get on the open market, nor do I blame them.

[gunnarthor]

I don't think he'd get a 3 year offer but stranger things have happened. I think Bassitt is a decent comp so 2/45 or so? Who knows. I think he'll end up taking our QO.

One legit worry is regression. Gray had a great April but since then, his era each month has been 3.90 or higher and in all 13 starts since April he's had a 4.35 era. The AL average is 4.26.

[cmoss84]

I'm predicting 3/60 with a 4th year player option.

[ashbury]

3 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

I'm predicting 3/60 with a 4th year player option.

Might as well just give him the guaranteed fourth year, then.

[cmoss84]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Might as well just give him the guaranteed fourth year, then.

I'm thinking he might want it as insurance in case he hates where he is...

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, cmoss84 said:

I'm thinking he might want it as insurance in case he hates where he is...

Can include an opt out.

[cmoss84]

20 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Can include an opt out.

Never really thought about opt outs versus player options...good point

[Boswell]

Sonny could also decide to retire and spend more time with his family!  He mentioned at the All-Star break that he had been selected three times over a ten year career - maybe time to hang it up. 
 

Nice way to put a pox on the Twins.  😜

[weitz41]

I don't expect the Twins to resign him unless he accepts the QO, which he won't. Depending on his health and performance the rest of the season. I think he's in line to get something like Bassitt's deal say 3/65. 25/25/team option for 15.

[Whitey333]

Yes I doubt they will resign him.  If he rejects the qualifying offer the Twins only get a draft pick.  Not much considering how well he's pitched for us.  As with any player about to leave via free agency you risk getting nothing.  Your article doesn't mention the trade option.  Although I don't think they will trade him because in part it may be a public relations nightmare to trade a top end starting pitcher in a pennant chase.  My guess is he's gone at end of year and we get a draft pick.

[Mike Sixel]

10 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't think he'd get a 3 year offer but stranger things have happened. I think Bassitt is a decent comp so 2/45 or so? Who knows. I think he'll end up taking our QO.

One legit worry is regression. Gray had a great April but since then, his era each month has been 3.90 or higher and in all 13 starts since April he's had a 4.35 era. The AL average is 4.26.

This

[TwinsDr2021]

On 7/19/2023 at 9:12 PM, Major League Ready said:

I would not try to speculate until we see how he pitches the rest of the year.  There will be a stark contrast if he pitches like his 1st 10 starts for the rest of the year vs his last 10 starts where he has had an ERA of 4.5 and a xFIP of 4.29 with a K rate of 7.69.

💯agree to this, but it really was more like his first 6 starts, and then every 4th or 5th game.

@Ted Schwerzler  - "he has been great this season often pitching deeper into games"

He has started 19 games and finished 6 innings 8 times, 7 twice and successfully got at least one out in the 6th 10 times that is not my definition of often.

[Linus]

He gets 3 years and $60 million for sure. No the Twins won’t pay this nor should they. QO and they are all good no matter what happens. 

[Twins33]

3/60 max. I hope the Twins just offer the QO, take it or leave it. He’s done well. It was a good trade, though I’m a Petty fanboy. 
 

His K% keeps dropping as the years go on, I don’t want the Twins to be stuck with him for years when it all fully falls apart