Which Twins Left-Handed Outfielder Should Go?

[Nashvilletwin]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'm pretty reluctant to cut the FO any slack regarding Kepler and Gallo. 

I think they're achieving pretty much exactly what SHOULD HAVE been forecast. 

Maybe even a little more than an honest forecast in Gallo's case, considering his tank jobs in NY and LA.

Kepler actually has a slightly higher OPS than last year, as well. He's been an above average hitter in 2019 and 2020s 60 game season. That's it.

Nobody in the FO should be surprised.  Disappointed, ok. But these outcomes should have been smack dab in the middle of any forecast range.

 

100% correct.  Those two are just what a lot of us, and a lot of front office types across the league given no one was willing to trade for Kepler or sign Gallo. thought they’d be.

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

100% correct.  Those two are just what a lot of us, and a lot of front office types across the league given no one was willing to trade for Kepler or sign Gallo. thought they’d be.

While I don't disagree with the take that these guys are doing what was pretty predictable, we have no reason to believe nobody would trade for Kepler or sign Gallo. Those things not happening aren't signs they weren't possible. I believe the FO that they had offers for Kepler. They probably weren't impressive. I think the FO severely overrated him. Not trading him for what they felt was too low of an offer isn't the same thing as nobody being willing to trade for him. Only 1 team can sign a player. When Ohtani signs this offseason you can't say that only that team was willing to sign him. The Twins misevaluating the players, and their worth, is not the same as nobody else in the league wanting them.

[Nashvilletwin]

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

While I don't disagree with the take that these guys are doing what was pretty predictable, we have no reason to believe nobody would trade for Kepler or sign Gallo. Those things not happening aren't signs they weren't possible. I believe the FO that they had offers for Kepler. They probably weren't impressive. I think the FO severely overrated him. Not trading him for what they felt was too low of an offer isn't the same thing as nobody being willing to trade for him. Only 1 team can sign a player. When Ohtani signs this offseason you can't say that only that team was willing to sign him. The Twins misevaluating the players, and their worth, is not the same as nobody else in the league wanting them.

Yes, of course you are correct.  I was just being a bit facetious.

The correct characterisation is that the Twins’ FO was the high “bidder” on both.  Someone would have very likely traded something for Kepler and someone probably would have signed Gallo for some amount.  

 

[ashbury]

13 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Yes, of course you are correct.  I was just being a bit facetious.

The correct characterisation is that the Twins’ FO was the high “bidder” on both.  Someone would have very likely traded something for Kepler and someone probably would have signed Gallo for some amount.  

 

Indeed, there is this thing called the Winner's Curse that plagues every type of auction.   Almost by definition, every player we sign is a mistake at that price in the eyes of every other GM.

[Nashvilletwin]

57 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Indeed, there is this thing called the Winner's Curse that plagues every type of auction.   Almost by definition, every player we sign is a mistake at that price in the eyes of every other GM.

Generally speaking you are correct. There are certainly instances when the “winner” believes it can do more with the acquired asset than others and ideally that is at a “price” that is lower than the value ultimately extracted.  However, I’d argue in these two cases the Twins’ FO was probably way more of an outlier than in most cases.  Thus, the “Winner’s Curse” is even more pronounced. Interestingly, it’s probably the same situation for the Correa signing as well.  

[Nashvilletwin]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'll say this again....if they don't believe in the options at AAA, trade them.....

Couldn’t agree more.  Its possible we could pick up some decent reliever help or a #5 starter - either with maybe an additional year of control - from a non contending team for both of them. Heck, we got Mahle for Steer and CES - theoretically, we should be able to do nearly as well as that deal, right?

Why not pull that trigger - their value is just wasting away down there in AAA with 27 and 26 years of age staring them in the face next year. The trade could make everybody happy: the FO doesn’t have to listen to people carp about it and they can get kudos for doing a deal; Larnach and Wallner are ecstatic that they get a real chance and are out of this organization; and we fans get a new FO and manager when the trade is a disaster, Kepler and Gallo keep up their poor hitting and the team misses the playoffs.  Win-win-win.

All facetiousness aside: the FO should do the right thing and live with their decision to keep Kepler and Gallo at the expense of Larnach and Wallner: trade the two prospects or play them!

 

[TwinkieFan4life]

9 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

It's been reported that Kepler has made it known to the Twins that his preference is not to play centerfield FWIW. If it were more of a question of whether he's still capable, I think it would be reported that way. I also can't imagine a scenario where the Twins just think his defense wouldn't be up to snuff there. Nick Gordon played there plenty before getting injured and Willi Castro still starts games there. I'd bet on both of those players being decidedly worse defensively than Max Kepler.

It is wild that the Twins have so many premium athletes that either can't play defense at all (Buxton), or won't play certain positions (Royce and Max).  You certainly don't sign guys like this thinking they will clog up DH and eliminate roster flexibility.  Twins are in a weird spot where they have hitters who are not premium athletes but no where to play them because DH, Third, and Right are clogged by the best athletes on the team.

[Mike Sixel]

29 minutes ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

It is wild that the Twins have so many premium athletes that either can't play defense at all (Buxton), or won't play certain positions (Royce and Max).  You certainly don't sign guys like this thinking they will clog up DH and eliminate roster flexibility.  Twins are in a weird spot where they have hitters who are not premium athletes but no where to play them because DH, Third, and Right are clogged by the best athletes on the team.

It does make one wonder ...betts played a position he's never played this year, to help the team, and Lewis can't be bothered to play the OF....

[mikelink45]

Both and if no one else wants them it is a message to the team.  Move on. 

[specialiststeve]

Both should go. Period.

[Minny505]

13 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Depending on what they do, it's always possible that Lewis or Julien or Kirilloff play some corner outfield as well right? Maybe not Julien, but it's at least worth considering the idea to keep his bat in the lineup.

I'm of the belief that Julien is the plan in LF when Polanco returns. On a team with a lot of young IF depth, Julien is the worst defender of them...and probably the best hitter. 

He's got good speed, enough to be an average LF. He has experience playing LF in college. It will be ugly at first, but by the playoffs he should be fine.

It's obvious that 2B is not his long-term home.

[Minny505]

5 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Couldn’t agree more.  Its possible we could pick up some decent reliever help or a #5 starter - either with maybe an additional year of control - from a non contending team for both of them. Heck, we got Mahle for Steer and CES - theoretically, we should be able to do nearly as well as that deal, right?

Why not pull that trigger - their value is just wasting away down there in AAA with 27 and 26 years of age staring them in the face next year. The trade could make everybody happy: the FO doesn’t have to listen to people carp about it and they can get kudos for doing a deal; Larnach and Wallner are ecstatic that they get a real chance and are out of this organization; and we fans get a new FO and manager when the trade is a disaster, Kepler and Gallo keep up their poor hitting and the team misses the playoffs.  Win-win-win.

All facetiousness aside: the FO should do the right thing and live with their decision to keep Kepler and Gallo at the expense of Larnach and Wallner: trade the two prospects or play them!

 

They are probably too good of pieces to trade for a RP and there really is no need to get a 5 starter. One could be part of a package for Pham...the Mets need MLB ready prospects.

I do think they should be traded if the FO is not planning on adding them to the active roster before August. They can both likely be flipped for younger prospects to restock the farm.

They should at least flip one of them regardless. Julien looks more and more like the future LF for this team, and sooner rather than later. 

[Mike Sixel]

34 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

I'm of the belief that Julien is the plan in LF when Polanco returns. On a team with a lot of young IF depth, Julien is the worst defender of them...and probably the best hitter. 

He's got good speed, enough to be an average LF. He has experience playing LF in college. It will be ugly at first, but by the playoffs he should be fine.

It's obvious that 2B is not his long-term home.

I'll be shocked if Julien plays in the OF unless every other option is injured during a game.

[TwinkieFan4life]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

It does make one wonder ...betts played a position he's never played this year, to help the team, and Lewis can't be bothered to play the OF....

I don't blame Lewis though.  Betts hasn't had to spend the bulk of the last 3 years rehabbing acl tears.  If he did he may take a different approach.  It is a crappy predicament for the Twins though.

[stringer bell]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'll be shocked if Julien plays in the OF unless every other option is injured during a game.

If the future home for Julien isn't 2B or DH, I think it would have to be first base. I've loved the idea of a healthy Alex Kirilloff spending a decade as the Twins regular first baseman, but he is a capable outfielder and he hasn't nailed down a permanent spot on the field with his hitting.

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'll be shocked if Julien plays in the OF unless every other option is injured during a game.

I have never seen Julien play the OF.  However, he is well below average at 2B so you would have to believe he did not show much promise when they tried him in the OF.

[TwinsDr2021]

One from each group should go Wallner/Larnach and Gallo/Kepler.

I am going to go out on a limb and say there is little to no chance Gallo and Kepler go unless another outfielder comes back in a trade. Imagine the Twins cutting those two and Larnach and Wallner come up and do the same or worse than Gallo/Kepler or one gets hurt and they are back bring up Contreras/LaMaree/Stevenson. Nope no FO is going to do that.

 

[Major League Ready]

25 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

One from each group should go Wallner/Larnach and Gallo/Kepler.

I am going to go out on a limb and say there is little to no chance Gallo and Kepler go unless another outfielder comes back in a trade. Imagine the Twins cutting those two and Larnach and Wallner come up and do the same or worse than Gallo/Kepler or one gets hurt and they are back bring up Contreras/LaMaree/Stevenson. Nope no FO is going to do that.

 

Letting one of Wallner/Larnach reduces our chances of finding a long-term solution.  Gallo is gone for sure next year and Kepler's option is not likely to be exercised.   It would be very short-sighted to let one of them go now.  Letting both Kepler and Gallo go creates a short-term risk but that risk is mitigated by Kirilloff's ability to play the OF.  Plus, how much downside is there to the level of play Gallo and Kepler have provided.  Letting both Gallo and Kepler go opens roster spots that will facilitate finding solutions.  

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Gallo certainly has more pop, but he doesn't "get on base" more than Kepler.

2023 OBP

Kepler .300

Gallo .302

Gallo draws more walks, Kepler gets a few more hits. 

They are both brutal …….that’s the point. Both are gone after this season, right? If that’s assumed & the premise is one of them has to go now, it’s gotta be Gallo. Our offensive output in LF is 26th in MLB……19th in RF. I realize neither of these guys are singularly responsible for these stats, but generally, I’ll take Kepler’s D in RF & his occasional offensive streaks - also more important in the clubhouse after 7 years.

Gallo has to go - may find a trade partner that would just take on his salary? If not, DFA.

[TwinsDr2021]

51 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Letting one of Wallner/Larnach reduces our chances of finding a long-term solution.  Gallo is gone for sure next year and Kepler's option is not likely to be exercised.   It would be very short-sighted to let one of them go now.  Letting both Kepler and Gallo go creates a short-term risk but that risk is mitigated by Kirilloff's ability to play the OF.  Plus, how much downside is there to the level of play Gallo and Kepler have provided.  Letting both Gallo and Kepler go opens roster spots that will facilitate finding solutions.  

I don't believe either are long term solutions, and I don't believe the Twins do either, I think they thought Larnach would/could be but between injuries and generally not being good that may have passed, Not sure what their thinking is with Wallner, maybe he has the same skill set as Gallo but Gallo costs 11 million.

[saviking]

Shouldn't this article be about which left-handed outfielder should come up from AAA?

[Cody Pirkl]

18 hours ago, stringer bell said:

The corollary to this discussion would be “which corner outfielder gets promoted?”  
 

I think that question is equally interesting. In a very small sample size, Wallner did well with the Twins, Larnach’s numbers are poor (much larger SS). However Larnach has the higher AAA OPS and is the better and more versatile outfielder. Both hit lefty and neither will help with the Twins’ K problem. 

That is an interesting question. Larnach has been ahead of Wallner every step of the way, which is fair because he was "MLB ready" sooner. We've seen more than a full season's worth of ABs from Larnach now though (in segments at a time) and it hasn't been impressive. I personally don't care if he strikes out 30% of the time when he walks and uses the whole field the way he does. That being said, he can't slug .380 along with that plate approach, it just doesn't work. 

Wallner potentially has the bigger strikeout risk, but he's shown the same ability to walk and I have very little doubt that the ball is going to fly off the bat if he makes enough contact. Ideally both get run, but if you're trying to help the offense immediately, I'd see if Wallner can come up and make a big impact first.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

One from each group should go Wallner/Larnach and Gallo/Kepler.

I am going to go out on a limb and say there is little to no chance Gallo and Kepler go unless another outfielder comes back in a trade. Imagine the Twins cutting those two and Larnach and Wallner come up and do the same or worse than Gallo/Kepler or one gets hurt and they are back bring up Contreras/LaMaree/Stevenson. Nope no FO is going to do that.

 

We dont need an OF in a trade. We got Castro and Gordon coming back soon.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

We dont need an OF in a trade. We got Castro and Gordon coming back soon.

That's unlikely to make things better.

[John Belinski]

If they do not want Wallner then trade him since I assume he would be a player that other teams would want, but if we trade him then he will be a good hitter for some other team.

[Fatbat]

9 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

That's unlikely to make things better.

Agreed but its depth that can sit on the bench while Wallner and TL play every day. 

[TwinsDr2021]

20 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

We dont need an OF in a trade. We got Castro and Gordon coming back soon.

You should put a sarcasm mark on this, because it was clever and funny.

[Minny505]

10 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'll be shocked if Julien plays in the OF unless every other option is injured during a game.

I am curious how you see the Twins keeping Julien in the lineup if he doesn't go to LF once Polanco returns.

Not what you would do, but what you expect the Twins to do.

For the last 10 years or so around MLB, LF has been the position infielders with a good bat but bad defense typically go.

[jmlease1]

9 hours ago, Minny505 said:

I'm of the belief that Julien is the plan in LF when Polanco returns. On a team with a lot of young IF depth, Julien is the worst defender of them...and probably the best hitter. 

He's got good speed, enough to be an average LF. He has experience playing LF in college. It will be ugly at first, but by the playoffs he should be fine.

It's obvious that 2B is not his long-term home.

Seems really doubtful that Julien is a solution to any of our production questions in the OF. Part of Julien's problem in the infield is his arm is terrible (poor strength and poor accuracy on throws) and that would be a problem for him in the OF too (he might become an average-ish defender in terms of range and catching flies, but people would run on him all day)

I do think this FO struggles with sunk costs when it comes to under-performing veterans, especially in-season. They usually seem to want to give a player more time to turn it around and recoup some value. (there are exceptions, of course) And after last seasons collapse where they ran out of credible MLB players, especially in the OF because of injuries, I get the hedging (it's not like we have a clean sheet on injuries this season either). but at a certain point you end up hurting the team more and it's hard to keep acting like a player is going to turn things around or change. (I don't think the Twins are the only front office that struggles with this, especially smaller markets)

I wasn't wild about signing Gallo, but a lot of it was about signing Gallo when we were keeping Kepler. Having both is increasingly problematic, because neither is hitting enough. Gallo's really fallen off after a hot start and his defense has been disappointing (though his versatility has been appreciated). Kepler's offense continues to be below par, and while his defensive value is greater than Gallo's right now, he's not a superior player out there any longer either.

Gallo is probably the easier one to simply cut: he hasn't had a good month since the start of the season, he's adding less defensive value, he's in a deep slump, there's no obligation after this season, and he's got no track record with the team. (the other side of the ledger is he seems like a good clubhouse guy, he's shown willingness to play wherever asked, he had a couple of minor injuries which may have hampered his defense, and we'd be eating more money on his contract) But it seems hard to keep going to the Gallo well, unfortunately.

Kepler shouldn't be safe, though. There's little to suggest that he'll improve; these 2 week bursts where he looks good have always been followed up with stretches of total ineptitude at the plate. He not bad defensively and still capable of making plays, but he's not looking like an elite player out in the field any longer, and he seems restricted to RF. But he's not going to be any real help on offense. He'll be lucky to finish the season with an OPS+ of 95, and it seems highly unlikely he'll reach 100, which is league average. 2019 was a fluke year.

I think I would release Gallo now and give either Wallner or Larnach a real shot. I would hold Kepler to see if they could trade him for anything (even if it meant eating some salary, or getting nothing but an A-ball reliever), and try and keep him away from any lefty until the trade deadline. Maybe he's a throw-in on another deal from a team that wants a lefty bat who can play good D. but I have no expectations we'll get much for him (I do think he has at least some trade value or at least less negative trade value than Gallo at this point), and if he can't be dealt, then I'd think long and hard about cutting him too unless Waller/Larnach immediately flopped on recall.

We need more offense, and Gallo and Kepler aren't getting it done.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Minny505 said:

I am curious how you see the Twins keeping Julien in the lineup if he doesn't go to LF once Polanco returns.

Not what you would do, but what you expect the Twins to do.

For the last 10 years or so around MLB, LF has been the position infielders with a good bat but bad defense typically go.

I expect them to send him to AAA so he can sit next to Larnach and Wallner and they can all be frustrated together.