Waiting for Mistakes Is Not a Viable Offensive Strategy

[LastOnePicked]

This is such a damning quote:

"what I said to (hitting coach David Popkins) is, ‘I’m going to turn into (Luis) Arraez today, just touch the ball. There’s a lot of grass out there.' "

Hitting coaches should be trying to convince hitters like Lewis to become like Arraez, not the other way around. The hiring of Popkins is another example of this FO thinking that they are on the "cutting edge," but instead are lightyears behind the philosophy and execution of top teams. But to fire him now would require them to admit this mistake, so they'd apparently rather let the team suffer.

Twins 2023: so much wasted opportunity, it boggles the mind.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

If you want different results, you have to try different approaches. 

[Swing Batter-Batter]

38 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

"The approach" is exactly what Falvey wants, it's what he drafts, it's what he develops and it's what he trades for. The Twins are a top down organization. We are witnessing the execution of Falvey's strategy. Remember his calling card coming out of Cleveland was Pitching Pitching and Pitching, and they had Francona pulling the on-field strings. I don't get the feeling Francona is anyone's puppet. Rocco isn't in the hitting meetings because Rocco is a Falvey puppet. That's what Falvey wants. All this is what Falvey built for us. Saddened watching Rosario last night. He had fire in the belly, like Luis. I miss them both. 

I guess we are doomed to being a .500 or less team, until Falvey is gone.

[roger]

Great topic Nick, Thanks.

Prior to reading anything about this I was wondering last night while watching the game, "Why the hell isn't Lewis playing.  He is coming off a 3 hit game on Sunday."  Did he sit because of his comment?  Did he sit because he is not blindly following the direction of the hitting coaches?  All I know is the kid has been getting lots of hits with his strikeout rate going down, way down.

Want to add one thought to this discussion..  Shouldn't a hitting coach, hell any coach, attempt to get the most out of every player?  Isn't the best way to do that to tailor the instruction to that player's strengths and abilities.  Yes, swinging out of your shoes on a mistake may work for some players.  The Arraez approach will work for others.  There are likely lots of other options for other players.  Attempting to mold all the players into one hitting style is not only a plan destined to fail, it is stupid in my opinion.

As for the hits at Reussie, I have enjoyed reading his articles for years.  Love his pieces on some unknown guy from X small town.  Also enjoy the shots he takes at whomever.  Sometimes I won't agree with him, but more often than not I do.  So I like the guy and look forward to his next article.  Note: I don't do twitter, so all I see is what's in the Strib.

[NotAboutWinning]

Excellent article Nick! Thank you for shining a big ole spotlight on the elephant in the room!

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

This is such a damning quote:

"what I said to (hitting coach David Popkins) is, ‘I’m going to turn into (Luis) Arraez today, just touch the ball. There’s a lot of grass out there.' "

Hitting coaches should be trying to convince hitters like Lewis to become like Arraez, not the other way around. 

Maybe we can replace Popkins with Lewis :)  

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

"The approach" is exactly what Falvey wants, it's what he drafts, it's what he develops and it's what he trades for. The Twins are a top down organization. We are witnessing the execution of Falvey's strategy. Remember his calling card coming out of Cleveland was Pitching Pitching and Pitching, and they had Francona pulling the on-field strings. I don't get the feeling Francona is anyone's puppet. Rocco isn't in the hitting meetings because Rocco is a Falvey puppet. That's what Falvey wants. All this is what Falvey built for us. Saddened watching Rosario last night. He had fire in the belly, like Luis. I miss them both. 

I'm going to have to be the what's your sources guy here.

I've never seen anything like what you are describing reported and would be happy to read it if it was available.  An interview, a rumor from a good source?  Probably just extrapolation of internet blather if I had to guess.

Seriously, is there any reporting out there about how the organization is structured and who does what?  So many assumptions presented as fact.  I cited a source and a specific concern. 

[HokieRif]

Woohoo!  Shots fired by the rookie, and I’m loving it!!!

[Doctor Gast]

Great article Nick, I've been complaining about the Twins hitting approach since 2020 after the juiced ball era. Adjusting your swing to hit the ball farther when a pitcher makes a mistake is crazy, Which means winning blow out games when the pitchers are off but losing close games by striking out a lot. I was critical of the hiring HR leading hitting coach Popkin. An article earlier this off season about Popkin stated that he worked individually with the hitter to try to optimize each one's strength. So I thought to give him another chance, maybe it was the player's fault like Sano than Popkin or maybe it's FO fault by pushing their approach.

I agree 100% with Lewis's approach of making contact, which I believe should be the main approach of the team. When a game is close it is less likely that a pitcher will make a mistake. I'd rather win a bunch of close games with clutch hits than losing them by striking out and winning a few blow out games by HRs.

[HokieRif]

And now for something from me with a thought behind it. Each player should know the opponents pitching staff tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses. Instead of us trying to put our strength up against their weakness, put our strength against their strength. Forgot about a mistake pitch - go up their looking for their best stuff, narrow it down to a section of the plate that they tend towards, and put a freaking bat on it. Crazy **** tends to happen when you put a ball in play, even if contact isn’t great. 
 

Get into a bad count? Get defensive and focus even more on contact, expect a pitch they punch you out on, and adjust. 

[Larry Janisewski]

6 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

You can add Corea and Buxton to that dead weight list.

To me Buxton is a bigger disappointment than Miranda. His apparent philosophy of being a homerun hitter and as a result striking out way too often and carrying a .220 average is Sano-like. He did not have this approach in the minors.

[PatPfund]

Maybe Popkins is part of the problem, maybe not. I'd blame the FO, who added the King O' Ks to our OF, kept the fading Kepler (who Ks less, but isn't good and hasn't been for years), can't seem to admit acquisition mistakes, and built the lineup around chronically injured players (like Polanco and Buxton, who has been TERRIBLE since the end of April), though they did add a solid bat in Solano. Maybe its the manager who went through a brutal injury decline, and therefore (or for some reason) KEEPS running out two of his worst hitters (one injured all the time) in the top four of the order, like it was against the law to bat them lower until they snap out of it. Maybe it's all of the above. Brutal to watch whatever the reason.

[singlesoverwalks]

 

6 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

"The approach" is exactly what Falvey wants, it's what he drafts, it's what he develops and it's what he trades for. The Twins are a top down organization. We are witnessing the execution of Falvey's strategy. Remember his calling card coming out of Cleveland was Pitching Pitching and Pitching, and they had Francona pulling the on-field strings. I don't get the feeling Francona is anyone's puppet. Rocco isn't in the hitting meetings because Rocco is a Falvey puppet. That's what Falvey wants. All this is what Falvey built for us. Saddened watching Rosario last night. He had fire in the belly, like Luis. I miss them both. 

This is going to come out kind of inarticulate, but, hey, it's the comments section on the Internet, so here we go. To me, it's a control thing from the front office. They want the on-field product to reflect their genius rather than being a collection of players who independently find their own ways to succeed. Players like Arraez and Rosario march to a different drummer, and they're out. Rocco is completely submissive to their plan, a mere functionary, a paper-pusher, and he's Manager for Life. The consistent reenactment of the front office's Baseball Genius matters more than the results, so there are no consequences for those who follow orders. It's very bland and off-putting. I stopped watching last year.

Edited June 27, 2023 by singlesoverwalks
Words were wrong

[KirbyDome89]

"Royce has enjoyed a .418 BABIP in his limited sample this year."

He's not necessarily wrong about this team needing to put the bat on the ball more often, but yeah the BABIP is massively inflated, he's rocking an above average K%, and the BBs are nonexisent. Idk if that's the path to turning things around either...

[wornsmooth]

15 hours ago, DFlow said:

I’ve been posting this same line on Twitter for months. We regularly have nine guys swinging for the fences rather each guy playing to their own individual games. The reality is this FO team is stuck in 2019 and needs to recalibrate to catch up to todays offensive MLB. Manufacturing runs is an art and the modern Twins have to accept that a home run may not be coming later in the game.

The other offensive bugaboo this team has is a lot of roster dead weight in the lineup. Vazquez, Gallo, Kepler, and Taylor are not hitting at a major league level right now and are pure dead weight in the lineup. We all accept a team having one defensive specialist, but three non-factors is a major issue.  There’s going to need to be a correction or else we can’t give up more than two runs per game. 

Has Taylor had a hit since taking a pitch to the head?

He wasn't hitting terrible prior to that.

[NotAboutWinning]

54 minutes ago, singlesoverwalks said:

 

This is going to come out kind of inarticulate, but, hey, it's the comments section on the Internet, so here we go. To me, it's a control thing from the front office. They want the on-field product to reflect their genius rather than being a collection of players who independently find their own ways to succeed. Players like Arraez and Rosario march to a different drummer, and they're out. Rocco is completely submissive to their plan, a mere functionary, a paper-pusher, and he's Manager for Life. The consistent reenactment of the front office's Baseball Genius matters more than the results, so there are no consequences for those who follow orders. It's very bland and off-putting. I stopped watching last year.

And if Lewis doesn't come around and toe the company line, he may find himself on the outbound side of a trade... to a much more successful team. Our loss will be his gain!

[jkcarew]

I don’t mind the approach, if you’re good at it.

If the Twins were good at it, their BB rate would be much better than it is, their HR rate would at least a little better than it is, and their K rate would/could be high, but not leading the league by a wide margin.

Given the current roster…too many have no other club in the bag…and too many that DO (or at least should) have that club, aren’t using it nearly enough.

[jkcarew]

Too much conspiracy theory in these posts, IMO.

I’m pretty sure the org has acknowledged the K’s are a problem. I’m sure they’re seeking solutions. The fact that Lewis is at least talking about ways to put more balls in play…I highly doubt the org sees that as a problem.

Even the media is starting to treat Lewis as a leader. He’s getting lots of microphones stuck under his snout.

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

 

I’m pretty sure the org has acknowledged the K’s are a problem. I’m sure they’re seeking solutions. 

Have they? Are they?

 

[jkcarew]

18 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Have they? Are they?

 

I saw a Rocco interview about a week or two ago when he admitted (maybe reluctantly) that the K’s are “a problem”.

But when you’re giving at bats to Gallo, Julien, Buxton, Farmer, MAT…and the guys in the wings include Wallner and Larnach…yikes.

[sftwinsfan]

They definitely seem to rely too much on guessing and looking to drive the ball over the fence regardless of count or situation. Seems far too often guys just take a fastball over the plate for strike 3 because it's not what they were looking for. Or maybe when a pitcher is rolling against them and they're not seeing the ball well off him, try to do less, shorten up and look to go the other way. Buxton at this point just looks like he's trying to yank everything to left, but he has enough power to hit it out to right as well and when he's going good seems to drive the ball well to the right-center field gap. Just more adjustments would be great, you can't continue scoring 2 or fewer runs in 35% of your games. 

[In My La Z boy]

20 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I'm going to have to be the what's your sources guy here.

I've never seen anything like what you are describing reported and would be happy to read it if it was available.  An interview, a rumor from a good source?  Probably just extrapolation of internet blather if I had to guess.

Seriously, is there any reporting out there about how the organization is structured and who does what?  So many assumptions presented as fact.  I cited a source and a specific concern. 

I presented nothing but my opinion. I don't need sources to have an opinion. I have watched the majority of Twins games since the mid-70's. I have a feel for history and the squads we've fielded over the decades. In my opinion, our current results from 2016 or so, the drafts, the trades, the signings, the on field performance suggests we aren't getting things right. Last 2 nights are a good example. We can't play with the Braves. No chance we could beat them in a 7 games series. Sadly.