Max Kepler isn't good at anything anymore

[Brock Beauchamp]

How he's starting almost every night is maddening. We've talked endlessly about his offense but take a look at his defense in right field.

2021 - 785 innings
DRS (Defensive Runs Saved): 9
OAA (Outs Above Average): 8

2022 - 891 innings
DRS: 10
OAA: 12

2023 - 359 innings
DRS: 0
OAA: 1

[wsnydes]

Since I do most of my Twins watching on the radio, I had not realized that his defense has slipped that much.  That's crazy.

[chpettit19]

It's not even 10 AM (central), Brock. You can't wait until at least 10 AM to ruin our days?

[cHawk]

The fact that his Baseball Savant percentile rankings chart looks like this is baffling.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, wsnydes said:

Since I do most of my Twins watching on the radio, I had not realized that his defense has slipped that much.  That's crazy.

He has not looked good this season. At least twice I've seen him half-ass a ball off the limestone. That prompted me to look into his defensive metrics. I was surprised at how incredibly mediocre they are this season.

[wsnydes]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

He has not looked good this season. At least twice I've seen him half-ass a ball off the limestone. That prompted me to look into his defensive metrics. I was surprised at how incredibly mediocre they are this season.

With how he's been hitting, dogging it in the field seems like the last thing you'd do.  Perhaps he's taking his struggles at the plate to the outfield with him?  Still not an excuse.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, wsnydes said:

With how he's been hitting, dogging it in the field seems like the last thing you'd do.  Perhaps he's taking his struggles at the plate to the outfield with him?  Still not an excuse.

I'm past the point of being rational about Kepler, I dislike him as a player soooooooo much. I'll just leave it at that and will not speculate about what he's thinking.

[wsnydes]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm past the point of being rational about Kepler, I dislike him as a player soooooooo much. I'll just leave it at that and will not speculate about what he's thinking.

And really, that's about all that should be said.  Not only do we not know what he's thinking, it's clearly not working anyway.  

[CRF]

I hadn't realized how much he's slipped defensively...everyone, myself included, is so focused on his inability at the plate. It really is time to find another long(er) term option out there in RF. He just keeps teasing us with a decent game every once in a while...like the last couple nights, to stay in the lineup. Rocco must really love the guy. 

[Jocko87]

I've been thinking for a while that Wallner could at least approximate his defense with the arm and some time with working the wall angles but I was expecting a drop off.  Now not so sure. 

[DocBauer]

I am beyond frustrated and confused by continuing to play him, or even roster him, at this point. Honestly, Larnach, for all of his inconsistency this year, has flat out produced Kepler. He also plays solid defense and has a really good arm. He's also 4yrs younger and has improvement potential. But he keeps getting sent out for Kepler's benefit? 

And really, with how he's produced last year and this year both, Wallner, the Twins reigning milb hitter of the year for 2022, should probably be promoted ahead of Larnach even. But he's languishing in AAA. Name me another team in baseball that would just have him sitting there in AAA instead of getting a look-see over a 30yo veteran on a 3 year down cycle?

Up until recently, I've been pretty impressed by Gallo. He's been everything hoped for defensively, and while he runs extremely hot and cold...which was expected...he's produced well until the past few weeks. Granted, he had an injury stint in there that might have thrown off his timing. But I'm almost to the point of moving on from Gallo as well as Kepler and run with the kids.

I do expect Gallo to rebound soon, so I might be getting carried away. But there's no logical reason for Kepler to be on the Twins any longer.

[ewen21]

He figured going to Paris and forgetting about baseball was a good thing.  It feels like he doesn't even like baseball right about now. 

[RpR]

5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm past the point of being rational about Kepler, I dislike him as a player soooooooo much. I'll just leave it at that and will not speculate about what he's thinking.

You do not like Kepler, oh my, oh my. 😆

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, ewen21 said:

He figured going to Paris and forgetting about baseball was a good thing.  It feels like he doesn't even like baseball right about now. 

It would appear as though his mind is still in Paris because it does not appear to be RF...

[LA Vikes Fan]

Hey, he's 30, not 26 or 28. His athleticism may be starting to tail off a bit. Or his legs still are a little off from the earlier injury. Either of those would explain the drop-off. Now what explains how much he plays? You got me there.  

[Riverbrian]

He laid up on this one in my opinion. I remember thinking to myself it would have been a very difficult catch but that he doesn't hit well enough to lay up. 

https://www.mlb.com/video/jovani-moran-in-play-no-out-to-alex-verdugo-4unxgo

[Mike Sixel]

Yikes 

[jmlease1]

I'm trying to think of a more frustrating player than Kepler. He's been pretty useless this season, and coming under fire from all sides this season. So of course, he's had a good week at the plate and a nice last two weeks out there.

But his defense has slid, I don't expect this little hot streak to last for long, and he's going to drive us all crazy at least until the trade deadline or until he gets hurt again. (I guess it's a blessing that he tells management every time he gets nicked up and goes on the injured list without a fight?)

They should have moved on from him in the offseason. Sigh.

[weitz41]

He's pretty good at holding down a roster spot. So..sorry you're a little off on the title..

[SwainZag]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

He laid up on this one in my opinion. I remember thinking to myself it would have been a very difficult catch but that he doesn't hit well enough to lay up. 

https://www.mlb.com/video/jovani-moran-in-play-no-out-to-alex-verdugo-4unxgo

It would have been a very difficult catch and that right field line in Fenway Park is probably one, if not the most ridiculous places in baseball.  An inch right and it's a home run, 3 inches right and it's foul.  That play in particular doesn't bother me much.

[Riverbrian]

33 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

It would have been a very difficult catch and that right field line in Fenway Park is probably one, if not the most ridiculous places in baseball.  An inch right and it's a home run, 3 inches right and it's foul.  That play in particular doesn't bother me much.

That's why I found the video and posted so others can make their own mind up. It's subjective. 

You are right... It would have been a very difficult catch and the RF line in Fenway is truly an adventure. Might have even taken him into the 2nd row with the momentum necessary. 

However... that was the ball game right there. 

That catch as hard as it may be... as oddly shaped as the Pesky Pole area is... slowing up is letting it land. Letting it land... if fair... is a loss. 

[tony&rodney]

Kepler has been very frustrating to watch the last few years. This year he has dropped down even further. The Falvey philosophy is totally baffling. Kepler struggles in 2022, Gallo is toast in 2022 - the Twins roster both of them on the same team. Max has been a guy who I have enjoyed watching, but it is time to turn the page. 

[Major League Ready]

Kepler has actually been pretty decent in June with a wRC+ of 110.  Gallo has been the one that has really struggled lately with a wRC+ and I would be inclined to let Gallo go before Max.   The best move IMO would be to cut Gallo now and bring up Wallner.  Keep Max around until the deadline and reassess at that point.

 

1	Donovan Solano	80	17.5%	18.8%	0.93	.281	.425	.484	.909	.203	0.8	.326	-0.6	0.0	-0.2	15	5.4	.400	161
2	Royce Lewis	75	4.0%	25.3%	0.16	.333	.360	.472	.832	.139	3.3	.420	-0.1	0.2	0.0	12	2.7	.362	134
3	Edouard Julien	51	11.8%	33.3%	0.35	.289	.373	.422	.795	.133	4.6	.464	0.2	0.1	0.1	8	1.4	.351	126
4	Ryan Jeffers	46	10.9%	32.6%	0.33	.282	.364	.385	.748	.103	1.5	.458	0.0	-0.1	-0.1	6	0.6	.334	115
5	Max Kepler	55	7.3%	27.3%	0.27	.235	.291	.471	.761	.235	0.1	.250	-0.6	0.0	-0.1	7	0.4	.327	110
6	Carlos Correa	83	4.8%	26.5%	0.18	.228	.265	.494	.759	.266	3.2	.250	-0.8	-0.5	-0.1	10	0.1	.320	105
7	Christian Vazquez	48	8.3%	18.8%	0.44	.233	.313	.395	.708	.163	1.0	.273	-0.3	-0.1	-0.1	5	-0.6	.304	94
8	Kyle Farmer	52	5.8%	21.2%	0.27	.234	.308	.362	.669	.128	1.9	.286	0.5	0.2	-0.1	5	-0.8	.298	90
9	Trevor Larnach	25	12.0%	32.0%	0.38	.182	.280	.364	.644	.182	5.4	.231	0.0	0.1	0.2	2	-0.7	.285	81
10	Michael A. Taylor	66	0.0%	31.8%	0.00	.206	.215	.460	.676	.254	6.5	.231	0.1	-0.2	1.0	6	-2.0	.281	78
11	Willi Castro	69	5.8%	24.6%	0.24	.226	.290	.306	.596	.081	6.8	.289	0.3	0.4	0.7	5	-2.8	.268	69
12	Byron Buxton	40	5.0%	40.0%	0.13	.135	.200	.405	.605	.270	1.1	.111	0.3	0.1	0.0	3	-2.0	.258	62
13	Alex Kirilloff	73	6.8%	26.0%	0.26	.194	.260	.299	.559	.104	0.3	.255	-0.3	0.3	-0.1	4	-4.4	.245	53
14	Joey Gallo	38	5.3%	50.0%	0.11	.139	.184	.278	.462	.139	0.1	.250	0.0	0.1	0.0	1	-3.6	.202	23
15	Jorge Polanco	26	3.8%	19.2%	0.20	.120	.154	.320	.474	.200	0.1	.105	0.0	0.1	0.0	1	-2.5	.201	22

[Twodogs]

I was wondering when all of the hate is going to start to be directed at Byron Buxton?  I mean by no means am I defending Kepler or Gallo, but.  Through 164 AB's Kepler has 10 HR's and is hitting .207.  Through 218 AB's Buck has 13 HR's and is hitting .206 and Buck is now incapable of playing defense.  So who's performance and salary are really weighing the Twins down?  I remember people complaining about Joe Mauer and his empty .300 batting averages, his salary and inability to play catcher was the doom of the Twins.  Now we have a guy making a Butt load of money and can't even play 1B?  Don't get me wrong, I love all of the Twins players and would love to see them all hit 30 bombs and hit .300.  but it's not happening.  It just seems like Buck gets a pass while these other guys get crapped on and these other guys really don't make any money, so easy to move on from.  Carlos Correa needs his fair share also, again making a truck load of money and has completely stunk.  

[Craig Arko]

23 minutes ago, Twodogs said:

I was wondering when all of the hate is going to start to be directed at Byron Buxton?  I mean by no means am I defending Kepler or Gallo, but.  Through 164 AB's Kepler has 10 HR's and is hitting .207.  Through 218 AB's Buck has 13 HR's and is hitting .206 and Buck is now incapable of playing defense.  So who's performance and salary are really weighing the Twins down?  I remember people complaining about Joe Mauer and his empty .300 batting averages, his salary and inability to play catcher was the doom of the Twins.  Now we have a guy making a Butt load of money and can't even play 1B?  Don't get me wrong, I love all of the Twins players and would love to see them all hit 30 bombs and hit .300.  but it's not happening.  It just seems like Buck gets a pass while these other guys get crapped on and these other guys really don't make any money, so easy to move on from.  Carlos Correa needs his fair share also, again making a truck load of money and has completely stunk.  

I was wondering when all the hate was just going to go away, since it’s pointless and generally no good for anybody. I suppose that’s just wishful thinking, but what the hell.

[SwainZag]

40 minutes ago, Twodogs said:

I was wondering when all of the hate is going to start to be directed at Byron Buxton?  I mean by no means am I defending Kepler or Gallo, but.  Through 164 AB's Kepler has 10 HR's and is hitting .207.  Through 218 AB's Buck has 13 HR's and is hitting .206 and Buck is now incapable of playing defense.  So who's performance and salary are really weighing the Twins down?  I remember people complaining about Joe Mauer and his empty .300 batting averages, his salary and inability to play catcher was the doom of the Twins.  Now we have a guy making a Butt load of money and can't even play 1B?  Don't get me wrong, I love all of the Twins players and would love to see them all hit 30 bombs and hit .300.  but it's not happening.  It just seems like Buck gets a pass while these other guys get crapped on and these other guys really don't make any money, so easy to move on from.  Carlos Correa needs his fair share also, again making a truck load of money and has completely stunk.  

If the Twins training staff don't think that Byron can play in the field, why do we need to direct any hate?  Max is getting heat because Wallner is playing well in AAA and deserves the ABs.  Buck is fresh off a new contract, he isn't going anywhere.   Continuing to hate on Buck not paying the field is pointless if the staff has determined he can't. 

[Twodogs]

12 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

If the Twins training staff don't think that Byron can play in the field, why do we need to direct any hate?  Max is getting heat because Wallner is playing well in AAA and deserves the ABs.  Buck is fresh off a new contract, he isn't going anywhere.   Continuing to hate on Buck not paying the field is pointless if the staff has determined he can't. 

I was just going off of the original post about how Kepler doesn't have as high of a DRS as high as he used to.  So I just made the point that Buck has no ability to even play out there anymore.  Yeah Buck has a new contract, that is huge and now has less opportunity to help the club.  But anyway, hopefully Buck can get his knee fixed in the off season and can roam the OF once again next season.  Hopefully Kep and Gallo get hot and help the Twins to a division title.  We will see.  Hopefully Wallner keeps playing well.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 6/22/2023 at 5:49 PM, Riverbrian said:

He laid up on this one in my opinion. I remember thinking to myself it would have been a very difficult catch but that he doesn't hit well enough to lay up. 

https://www.mlb.com/video/jovani-moran-in-play-no-out-to-alex-verdugo-4unxgo

I watched that verdugo hit on mlb.com as it happened. Then I watched several replays to see if the ball was fair or foul. But now I have watched it to see if the ball could have been caught and I believe it could have been caught if a right fielder had exhibited more effort. 

[Major League Ready]

41 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I watched that verdugo hit on mlb.com as it happened. Then I watched several replays to see if the ball was fair or foul. But now I have watched it to see if the ball could have been caught and I believe it could have been caught if a right fielder had exhibited more effort. 

He has never been a guy that really goes after it.  I don't want an OFer to crash into the wall but it's also possible to go after the ball aggressively without being reckless.  He has never been a guy that plays hard and this play was a good example.  He was at two-thirds speed long before that ball dropped.   That said .... Wallner has looked really bad defensively.  he just does not have good instincts or hands.

That said .... If it were one or the other, I would keep Kepler for now, cut Gallo tomorrow and bring up Wallner or Larnach.  

[Riverbrian]

13 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I watched that verdugo hit on mlb.com as it happened. Then I watched several replays to see if the ball was fair or foul. But now I have watched it to see if the ball could have been caught and I believe it could have been caught if a right fielder had exhibited more effort. 

It just looks to me like he laid up... Kinda coasted toward the ball and he didn't appear to be taking a direct angle toward it either. 

The funny thing is -- If he would have made the catch... It would have been in a low probability zone and one catch in a 20% probability zone can raise his defensive metrics to the point where Brock doesn't post his current defensive numbers that started this discussion.