Max Kepler, One of the Greatest Outfielders in Twins History

[DJL44]

29 minutes ago, USNMCPO said:

I have to disagree. I am old enough to have seen all of them in person. They were truly excellent outfielders. For the most part they also were very clutch hitters. I only saw Tovar play outfield once so a very small sample. Allison and Oliva were great hitters and smooth outfielders. Oliva was really hurt by knee injuries. The later guys on the list were all good too. Not sure what your criteria was but, it does not match mine.

It would be nice if they had someone who was in the top 30 at their position all-time. They're good outfielders but that list is mediocre compared to other franchises. Of course the Twins are a pretty mediocre franchise so that makes sense.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

2 things come to mind here:

1- The Twins do not have a very impressive list of "All Time Great Outfielders." Which really shouldn't be that surprising.

2- Longevity mixed with unrealistic expectations really defines Max's career here. He's been around a long time, playing really good defense, so he's amassed some WAR. The Twins kept hitting him in the top 5 of the lineup despite him not being a very good hitter, so fans got upset that he wasn't better offensively like you'd want out of a top 5 hitter.

Max has been a solid major league baseball player for a while. He doesn't belong on a list of greats for a competitive team, but he was good enough for many years to have been a 7-9 hole hitter on a really good team. Unfortunately, he didn't play on really good teams so he was miscast as a top of the order hitter. Interesting article, though.

Exactly.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Max Kepler could have been a much better hitter by hitting to the opposite field some. How many times have you heard the following coming from a Twins announcer? "Kepler hits a two hopper to the second baseman for an out."

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Sorry.  This is the "he's been around for a long time so we should keep him" argument.  I'm not in the "Max Kepler is a disaster" club, but calling him one of the best outfielders in team history is statistical interpretation cherry-picking at it's finest.  He had one pretty good year and one great year, combined with a lot of not very much.  His glove isn't that valuable unless he can man two positions at the same time. 

I will agree that the Twins list of all-time outfielders isn't that impressive compared to some other teams, but they have had a number of "really good" outfielders out there like Tori Hunter, Dan Ford, Tom Brunansky, Lyman Bostock, Shane Mack, Caesar Tover, and more.  Those players aren't in the Puckett and Oliva category, but they are still preferable picks to Max Kepler. 

[umterp23]

Thought I heard Bremer on air the other night say that left handed pull hitters on avg saw an increase of 12 points to their batting avg with the new shift ban rules.  I guess Kepler thought it meant -12 points as he is solidly below the dreaded Mendoza line at .191.  But people say he is a great clubhouse leader.  Time to bench the guy but that won't happen 

[nicksaviking]

***Moderator Note***

Posts have been removed to better keep this thread on topic. Stick to Kepler's merits, not other posters'.

[D.C Twins]

(Giggles.... deep breath... more giggles) 

[mrtwinsfan]

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I believe the article says more about fWAR than about Max Kepler.

 

Believe what i see, even if my  old eyes dont agree !!

[darwin22]

9 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Not every great outfielder was here long enough to accumulate WAR like Kepler.  Larry Hisle and Lyman Bostock were here a short time but were a great combo.

Lenny Green and Cesar Tovar were terrific, Allison is one of our greats, Jimmie Hall burned out quickly like Kepler.  Oliva and Puckett are in another universe!  Ted Unlaender is under rated, Dan Ford is a legend.  Kenny Landreaux gave us a short but good Outfielder.  Brunansky had a great was a good player.  I would not have traded Dan Gladden for Kepler.  Shane Mack is another legend.  Matt Lawton gave us some good years.  Torrii Hunter was another exceptional player and Denard Span was too.  Jacque Jones was a good player who was consistent throughout`his tenure. Shannon Stewart was not here long, but what a difference he made.  Michael Cuddyer was a good player who was a consistent producer for a number of years.  Jason Kubel was a short term good producer.  Willingham had one great year for us - far better than Kepler's.  Aaron Hicks was traded but showed how good he could be.  

Max had three good years and a team that would not move on from him.  But accumulated stats are not the measure of greatness.  If they were Koufax and Dean would not be in the HOF.  I would not trade any of the players I have listed for Max - no matter what fWAR says. 

Excellent list of other Twins OFers that were very good players! 

I would like to add 1 other OFer that many have forgotten about:   Bobby Darwin

Darwin was my favorite player as a young fan growing up in northeast Iowa in the early to mid 1970s.

Although not in the territory of Hisle or Bostock, I'd argue that during his 3 years as the starting RFer for the Twins (1972-74) he put up good numbers.  

GP:  147 average 72-74

AB:  1648/ 549 per season

Hits:  430

AVG:  .261 (respectable for the time)

EBH:  129 over those 3 seasons which included 65 HRs....just under 22 avg per season

RBI:  264/ 88 avg per season which was excellent for some very mediocre Twins teams.

K:  Averaged 136 per season, which was high for that era.  Today, he'd fit right into this lineup

Darwin started in the Dodgers system in the early 60s, then disappeared for a number of years before pitching a few innings in 1969.  Came to Twins in 1971 then was full time starter before getting traded to Brewers in 1975.

Wondering if Darwin is the answer to the following question?

I seem to remember he became only 2nd hitter (Killebrew was the only other) to hit a HR into the 2nd deck at Metropolitan Stadium.  Intended for the memory of "old time" Twins fans.  Is that correct? 

 

[wornsmooth]

Good outfielders are standing in the " right place". Which then makes the play look more routine.

They should be adjusting both to who is hitting, the situation, and the ball/strike count. 

Maybe even to who are the pitcher/catcher combo.

 

[wornsmooth]

46 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

Excellent list of other Twins OFers that were very good players! 

I would like to add 1 other OFer that many have forgotten about:   Bobby Darwin

Darwin was my favorite player as a young fan growing up in northeast Iowa in the early to mid 1970s.

Although not in the territory of Hisle or Bostock, I'd argue that during his 3 years as the starting RFer for the Twins (1972-74) he put up good numbers.  

GP:  147 average 72-74

AB:  1648/ 549 per season

Hits:  430

AVG:  .261 (respectable for the time)

EBH:  129 over those 3 seasons which included 65 HRs....just under 22 avg per season

RBI:  264/ 88 avg per season which was excellent for some very mediocre Twins teams.

K:  Averaged 136 per season, which was high for that era.  Today, he'd fit right into this lineup

Darwin started in the Dodgers system in the early 60s, then disappeared for a number of years before pitching a few innings in 1969.  Came to Twins in 1971 then was full time starter before getting traded to Brewers in 1975.

Wondering if Darwin is the answer to the following question?

I seem to remember he became only 2nd hitter (Killebrew was the only other) to hit a HR into the 2nd deck at Metropolitan Stadium.  Intended for the memory of "old time" Twins fans.  Is that correct? 

 

That fits my memory as well.

To my knowledge only 2 players in the majors to do it. Killebrew twice, Darwin once.

[DocBauer]

Kepler is an excellent defensive RF, and was pretty good in CF, when he played there. Forgetting any metric, I don't think his defense can be disputed, and that adds value to his overall career and any Twins legacy. For his career, his OPS+ sits at exactly 100. That's exactly average. Combine that with his defense makes him a good player overall.

He's been over 100 OPS+ in 2 seasons, 2019 obviously being the outlier. 2020 was also above 100+. He's had 5yrs somewhere in the 90's, which means below average at a position that is usually an offensive spot. But a little below average, combined with great defense, doesn't make him a bad player, but makes him, at best, an average to slightly better than average OVERALL player, despite being below average offensively. 

It's also not his fault he was often batted higher in the lineup than he should have probably been. I think that skews his perception somewhat. 

And despite some tame rants I've had regarding Kepler's rather obvious nosedive with the bat the past 2 1/3 seasons, and practically begging for the younger Larnach and Wallner to take his spot...both younger and with higher ceilings offensively...I've been a Kepler fan since the day he was signed. But there is little to no room to call him one of the Twins best OF simply due to longevity, good defense, and below average offense.

I decided to take a moment and look at the OPS+ of several Twins OF in the past few decades. ALL of them were in the Twins OF for a minimum of 5yrs. In an attempt to be as fair as possible, I eliminated the 1st year of Denard Span as it was a SSS with a very high OPS+ of 127. And I also eliminated the first, brief appearances, of Cuddyer as they were SSS when he was still being tried out in the INF.

Lawton      100

Jones         100

Span          104

Rosario      109

Cuddyer     109

Brunansky 111

Mack          132

A few of these played LF, some saw limited action in CF, and Span was a true CF. And maybe the illusive B-WAR offers Kepler points for his RF defense. But OPS+ plus indicates at least 2 long time Twins OF were evry bit as good offensively as Kepler. The other 5 ranked higher. And while Rosario was always a bit of a lightening rod concerning defensive value, his OPS+ remains greater than Kepler. But I'm not sure any of the others on this list could be described as poor defensive players when they were Twins.

Matt, you are correct when you mention career reflection vs immediate relevancy changing the perspective of a player. But it's also an unequivocal fact that Kepler is on a 3yr plus downturn in his production, even including a solid 2020. And I don't think it's very debatable that his presence is blocking a pair of 4 and 5 year younger players that are much less expensive, and have higher offensive ceilings, even though they probably won't match Max's defense. 

But one of the top Twins OF of all time? Five plus years from the names above, who all wore Twins uniforms for at least 5 seasons seems to state, IMO at least, that Kepler might not even be in the top 10. 

 

[insagt1]

This is what happens when too many stats clutter the landscape. You get some real crazy results, and some just are not congruent.  When you go to the games, do you enjoy watching him play...both defensively and at the plate? If so you are happy with what he contributes. If not, you are going to want him gone. Right? Are you excited when he comes to the plate? Are you giddy when the ball is hit in his direction? This is the kind of stuff that the fan who goes to games looks for. He doesn't spend inordinate amount of time talking launch angle, exit speed, WAR, peace, detente,  whatever. When I went to games in Montreal and Vlad Sr was up, everything else stopped. You couldn't wait to see him hit. When Buck is healthy (hardly ever happens anymore) didn't you love watching him patrol CF..making all those plays.

How does Kepler fit those criteria when watching him play? Is he helping the team win, or has he become a liability? For me then, I would say based on watching the Twins on TV only...I wouldn't cry if Kepler and Pagan were let go. They aren't guys I can't wait to see when I watch the Twins. Hate to say it but Buxton is starting to trend that way and I never ever thought I'd feel that way.

[specialiststeve]

What you smokin' Willis?

[John Belinski]

I like Max, but do not think he is one of the greatest outfielders for Twins. He really had one very good season.

[RetractableProof]

Where is the satire disclaimer at the top of this article?

[Otaknam]

Say what? 

[Finlander]

The stats from 2019 really should be excluded for a fair comparison. Torii would have jacked 50 with that baseball.

My "what might have been" pick for someone who could have made the list with a better break: Jim Eisenreich. Jimmy Hall was headed to the list too until he was beaned - never the same player after that.

[RpR]

Lurch Wallner would be SO much better in right field.  🙄

[JD-TWINS]

On 6/12/2023 at 12:53 PM, ashbury said:

Concur.  There are times when WAR is a useful measure of a player's contribution, but when the discussion involves words like "greatest" I prefer the related measure, Wins Above Average.  On b-r.com this change in view knocks Kepler down to 10th from 8th.  This was setting at 80% the number of total games when in the outfield - if I lower it to 60% then I get reminded that Tovar played a lot of CF and should be in the discussion.

My Mount Rushmore for Twins outfielders would be something like Puckett, Oliva, Allison, Buxton.  For a franchise like the Twins, going much beyond 4 (Mack? Span?) starts to get into a Local Hall of the Very Good, not "greatest."

Max Kepler certainly was Very Good.

Torri Hunter - Lyman Bostock - Tom Brunansky - Shane Mack - Tony O - Kirby Puckett - Caesar Tovar are/were all very productive outfielders & 3 or 4 were gold glove guys at one point of their career.

Doesn’t matter what Max’s War might be, he’s washed at the plate!! Can’t get 2 big hits a month and “play good defense” and be a worthwhile player every day in the line-up. Cannot!! DFA.

[jkcarew]

Yeah, I don’t think you can go just with counting stats. Also, fwiw, I think Kepler has benefited from some of the flaws WAR has on the defensive calculations…specifically as it relates to inflated range factors in years where he played significant games in CF.

Tom Brunansky was better as a Twin…both in terms of performance (though not by that much)…and in terms of accomplishment…with an epic ALCS and a WS championship.

[jkcarew]

18 hours ago, DocBauer said:

But I'm not sure any of the others on this list could be described as poor defensive players when they were Twins

Love the list.

Some would consider Mack a poor fielder. He was a bit of an enigma defensively. The range was plus, the glove was average…but the arm was epically bad. Anyone and everyone ran on it. The throwing shoulder was toast before he got to the Twins. And it eventually abbreviated his career.

[USAFChief]

6 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Love the list.

Some would consider Mack a poor fielder. He was a bit of an enigma defensively. The range was plus, the glove was average…but the arm was epically bad. Anyone and everyone ran on it. The throwing shoulder was toast before he got to the Twins. And it eventually abbreviated his career.

Yeah, but that guy could HIT!

[joefish]

I've been a Max fan and supporter. But his arm is average and his bat is a no-show, his defense is good but seldom great or even exciting.