Twins will go as far as Rocco won’t let them

[chpettit19]

29 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Is it possible for that outcome to happen and still not like the decision? Some people seem to be missing that point (not saying you)

IMO when a top end type starter has a 1 hitter after 6 with 87 pitches my expectation is that he goes back out for 1 more inning. Even if he gives up a run that inning it is an great start and helps set the bullpen for the whole series. Maybe Ryan and Rocco talked and Ryan said I can go back out but I am pretty much spent, and my expectation or hope was never going to happen.

I will say this, Win or Lose I didn't like the decisions and won't even if the next 10 times it turns into wins.

I don't disagree with you, but what if Ryan was spent and they send him back out and it leads to him missing his next start, or having it pushed back and now you're running Headrick, Winder, or SWR out there for a start that likely doesn't go as well, or last as long as Ryan would've. That's a possibility. Could leave Ryan in too long and end up losing a game because of it, plus it wears on his arm to the point that it effects future games as well. Now I have no idea what the evidence would say for how leaving a starter in for an extra inning and wearing out his arm is really like, but the Twins currently have 2 guys on the IL who's arms seemed to have been overused early. Just another side of the conversation.

[Craig Arko]

42 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

This is a rhetorical question (meaning I'm not asking for a specific response). Which is worse: pulling the starter too soon or pulling him too late?

Also a rhetorical question: I wonder how Johan Santana would answer this?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Can't be trusted so shouldn't be on the team is an interesting thing to try to argue against 1 game's bullpen use. If Stewart can't be trusted he shouldn't be on the team either, no? I don't understand your point. When was he supposed to have used Pagan or Moran last night? He used 3 of his 4 best relievers, and the other one he used didn't allow a run. What are we mad at?

I don't know whether Duran was, or wasn't, available yesterday. Isn't it possible Rocco was saving him for a save situation? If they'd had the lead in the 9th or 10th do you know that they wouldn't have had Duran in at that point? Blindly blaming Rocco is no better than blindly being a Rocco apologist.

Agreed entirely and would add, Rocco isn’t the GM. He chooses when to use players but not to DFA them. Pagan and Moran being on the roster is up to Thad Levine.

[Cory Engelhardt]

12 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

In that final batter, Ryan threw four fastballs that came in at 89, 90, 89, 90.

That's roughly 3mph slower than he was sitting earlier in the game.

It's not only about pitch count, people. The manager's job is to actually watch his pitchers out there.

But what about the analytics that came and stole my ham sandwich from the work fridge earlier today? What about THAT Brock?!?! :)

[Riverbrian]

Joe Ryan: If his velocity dropped that much and it did... You take him out.

Maybe he is tired... maybe he is hurt. Don't know why it dropped but his velocity really dropped. If a manager doesn't take him out at that time... it would be irresponsible. Take him out just in case he is tired or hurt. This is what you have bullpen for. 

Brock Stewart:  The guy was striking out two batters an inning in AAA. We need more high leverage guys in the bullpen, we are not going to be able to just Lopez, Thielbar, Jax and Duran our way through all 162 games this season. I don't understand how others don't understand this. Stewart struggled with his control last night but his stuff was moving pretty good and you can see why he was striking out two batters an inning in St. Paul. I'm glad that Rocco turned to him last night and asked him to perform and I hope he does it again. We need a 5th guy and 6th guy in the bullpen that Rocco can turn to with the game on the line.  

Duran: No idea... won't pretend to know. Perhaps he was saving him for a save situation. I don't know if he was warming up in 10th at all or if it was Thielbar all the way. Perhaps... Perhaps... Perhaps... I have no idea and I don't care. The bullpen that he utilized are doing well and good choices for the situation we were in. If Duran shuts them down in the 9th or the 10th instead of Stewart or Thielbar... Who throws the 11th? It was a road game.   

If I want to throw blame around (I don't) for a close game loss in game 30 of a 162 game season. I'm looking at those people who were swinging the bats. They were not good and Chicago pitching was not that great.  

 

 

[Rosterman]

Pitchers give up runs. They just...do. At some point. And one bad inning for a relief pitcher can take weeks of games to settle their...stats.

Ryan did look done. He pitched a tough game and did wonderful.

You have to be able to trust the Pagans, Morans, Stewarts (and now Winder). Otherwise, replace them. But right now, with whom?

[Muppet]

24 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

If I want to throw blame around (I don't) for a close game loss in game 30 of a 162 game season. I'm looking at those people who were swinging the bats. They were not good and Chicago pitching was not that great.  

This! Don't blame pitchers (or managers of pitchers) for a loss when the offence can't score 4 or more points. 

[ashbury]

26 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Pitchers give up runs. They just...do. At some point. And one bad inning for a relief pitcher can take weeks of games to settle their...stats.

That's why I don't use ERA as my main way to judge relievers.  OPS-against makes great sense to me.  And on a game level, I like to see "clean innings" from relievers - no walks, no hits, no nothin'.

Not that I expect good relievers to shut down the opposition every time.  But if you are good, then on a regular basis you should be able to get three batters out in a row and tip your cap to the crowd and call it a successful day.

Jax had a clean inning yesterday.  Good for him.  I took a quick look back and it was the first clean (full) inning for any reliever in several games.  That's not good.

Put runners on base, bad things will happen.

For the young season, our relievers not named Emilio or Jovani have had good OPS-against.  But lately the trend has been worrisome.  And they're not throwing clean innings most of the time.

[Jocko87]

52 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

In that final batter, Ryan threw four fastballs that came in at 89, 90, 89, 90.

That's roughly 3mph slower than he was sitting earlier in the game.

It's not only about pitch count, people. The manager's job is to actually watch his pitchers out there.

100%. And I feel somewhat vindicated from one of the dozens of short start threats as I was making the case that they aren't just watching the pitcher, they are watching spin rates and all sorts of actual data that could indicate impending implosions. For the purpose of, you know, preventing implosions. This is now confirmed.

I don't know what else you would want from a manager here. The starter suddenly lost 3-4 ticks on the ol fastball, he's done in all versions of baseball since 1842.  Then you bring your best non-closer relief pitcher for the heart of the order.

It didn't work out this time but if they do it differently next time I'll need an explanation.

More serious concern is why the 3-4 ticks left. Have we got the data somewhere on what a tired arm from the game looks like? Do they all do this when they gas out? Serious question, I don't know.

[TwinsDr2021]

50 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't disagree with you, but what if Ryan was spent and they send him back out and it leads to him missing his next start, or having it pushed back and now you're running Headrick, Winder, or SWR out there for a start that likely doesn't go as well, or last as long as Ryan would've. That's a possibility. Could leave Ryan in too long and end up losing a game because of it, plus it wears on his arm to the point that it effects future games as well. Now I have no idea what the evidence would say for how leaving a starter in for an extra inning and wearing out his arm is really like, but the Twins currently have 2 guys on the IL who's arms seemed to have been overused early. Just another side of the conversation.

If he was spent, he was spent and you take him out. Rocco didn't say that. I would question why a guy that has only thrown 87 pitches mostly from the wind up is spent but that is another question. If Rocco would have said Joe gave us all he had today, and it was time for others to get us to the end of the game or that Ryan's velocity was dipping and we wanted to get him out to make sure he didn't get injured, then there is no speculation of his decision and the talk could be why Ryan tired. As for his use of bullpen arms, I have no complaints on who he used.

On why Mahle and Maeda are on the IR, we will have to agree to disagree it is because of overuse, because if what Maeda has done is considered overuse he should never have been in the rotation to begin with and Mahle seems to have other issues going back to last year. (maybe overuse on the Reds part)

 

[ashbury]

8 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

The starter suddenly lost 3-4 ticks on the ol fastball, he's done in all versions of baseball since 1842. 

The versions of baseball I know of before the 1870s didn't usually permit fastballs.  Well, perhaps in games played by ruffians for money, but such were not contests of skill, merely brute force. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

In that final batter, Ryan threw four fastballs that came in at 89, 90, 89, 90.

That's roughly 3mph slower than he was sitting earlier in the game.

It's not only about pitch count, people. The manager's job is to actually watch his pitchers out there.

Is there a chance he was changing it up a bit? Or did something happen in the 5th, that seems like dropped to 91, in the 4th it was sitting mostly between 92 -94,  Only twice in the last two innings did it hit 92/93?

[wsnydes]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

But what about the analytics that came and stole my ham sandwich from the work fridge earlier today? What about THAT Brock?!?! :)

Rocco can't watch his pitchers AND your ham sandwich, Cory!  That's what assistant coaches are for!

[wsnydes]

16 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The versions of baseball I know of before the 1870s didn't usually permit fastballs.  Well, perhaps in games played by ruffians for money, but such were not contests of skill, merely brute force. 

Definitely more of a gentleman's game prior to the 1870s, wasn't it?

We should ask Chief what that was like!

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If he was spent, he was spent and you take him out. Rocco didn't say that. I would question why a guy that has only thrown 87 pitches mostly from the wind up is spent but that is another question. If Rocco would have said Joe gave us all he had today, and it was time for others to get us to the end of the game or that Ryan's velocity was dipping and we wanted to get him out to make sure he didn't get injured, then there is no speculation of his decision and the talk could be why Ryan tired. As for his use of bullpen arms, I have no complaints on who he used.

On why Mahle and Maeda are on the IR, we will have to agree to disagree it is because of overuse, because if what Maeda has done is considered overuse he should never have been in the rotation to begin with and Mahle seems to have other issues going back to last year. (maybe overuse on the Reds part)

 

What did Rocco say? I don't watch post-game pressers because I don't think there's any value in it. Did Rocco say he just felt like taking Ryan out? What was the reason he gave? We all can see that his velo dropped. Everyone watching the game can see the velo on every pitch thrown. I don't expect Rocco to give deep dive explanations of why they took a guy out. They took Ryan out because they felt the best option for getting 3 outs in the 7th inning while giving up the fewest runs was Lopez. I don't need more of an explanation than that, but I understand some do. What if they thought Ryan had given 99% of what he had, and not all he had? What if their data, and Ryan's input, was suggesting he had 5-8 more pitches in him. Should they have sent him back out for those 5-8 pitches?

Fair, I don't have any idea if it was overuse or what. But is fatigue, and overuse, not a concern for starters? Whether it was the, or a, factor in Mahle and Maeda isn't really the point. If they overexert a pitcher today because he has a 1 hitter through 6 and only 87 pitches does it not have an effect down the road? If the argument is you have to use starters for more innings to not overuse bullpen arms, is the same argument about not overusing starters logical?

To me it looked like Ryan was running out of gas. His velo numbers seem to support that as well. Was it 100%, no-doubt-about-it the right answer? No. I can see why you, or anyone, would look at 87 pitches through 6 and want Ryan to go out for a 7th. But I also don't expect, or want, Rocco giving some in depth answer on what they're looking at to make those determinations. I believe Rocco, Maki, Ryan, and the rest of the decision makers last night wanted to win that game more than any of us on these boards so I trust that they were making a decision with that goal in mind. And it was a defensible decision. So I have no problem with it. But I also just see it as an example of the pitfalls of dissecting any decision made on any day, in any game. We simply don't have the info they do about the players to truly judge any individual decision. Maybe Ryan was feeling a little under the weather yesterday and that's why his arm was losing velo a little quicker than usual. Maybe he slept funny and his arm, or legs, or back, or whatever just wasn't quite right. Maybe a million things.

[wsnydes]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What did Rocco say? I don't watch post-game pressers because I don't think there's any value in it. Did Rocco say he just felt like taking Ryan out? What was the reason he gave? We all can see that his velo dropped. Everyone watching the game can see the velo on every pitch thrown. I don't expect Rocco to give deep dive explanations of why they took a guy out. They took Ryan out because they felt the best option for getting 3 outs in the 7th inning while giving up the fewest runs was Lopez. I don't need more of an explanation than that, but I understand some do. What if they thought Ryan had given 99% of what he had, and not all he had? What if their data, and Ryan's input, was suggesting he had 5-8 more pitches in him. Should they have sent him back out for those 5-8 pitches?

Fair, I don't have any idea if it was overuse or what. But is fatigue, and overuse, not a concern for starters? Whether it was the, or a, factor in Mahle and Maeda isn't really the point. If they overexert a pitcher today because he has a 1 hitter through 6 and only 87 pitches does it not have an effect down the road? If the argument is you have to use starters for more innings to not overuse bullpen arms, is the same argument about not overusing starters logical?

To me it looked like Ryan was running out of gas. His velo numbers seem to support that as well. Was it 100%, no-doubt-about-it the right answer? No. I can see why you, or anyone, would look at 87 pitches through 6 and want Ryan to go out for a 7th. But I also don't expect, or want, Rocco giving some in depth answer on what they're looking at to make those determinations. I believe Rocco, Maki, Ryan, and the rest of the decision makers last night wanted to win that game more than any of us on these boards so I trust that they were making a decision with that goal in mind. And it was a defensible decision. So I have no problem with it. But I also just see it as an example of the pitfalls of dissecting any decision made on any day, in any game. We simply don't have the info they do about the players to truly judge any individual decision. Maybe Ryan was feeling a little under the weather yesterday and that's why his arm was losing velo a little quicker than usual. Maybe he slept funny and his arm, or legs, or back, or whatever just wasn't quite right. Maybe a million things.

Some days you have it, some days you don't.  Sometimes that's all the more complicated it is.

[Sjoski]

 This is from an article that was released on Feb. 2nd, 2023. 

Phil Miller reported that Twins President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey said the bullpen is not a priority right now. The Twins did a good job of addressing the bullpen at the last trade deadline and shuffling some pieces led to the Twins being middle of the pack overall.

But given the acquisition of Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo, and Pablo Lopez, this feels like a re-hash of previous offseasons, the last two of which has gone very poorly for the Twins in regards to fielding a good bullpen in the first half of the season.

Given the availability of marginal but solid relievers and the low cost of acquiring one as insurance against Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Emilio Pagan, and others, I don't see why this decision is being made once again.
______________________
It's mind boggling that for the 3rd straight season the Twins have failed to assemble a decent bullpen. What, this was the 4th cave in of the year...on pace for 22 games.....WHEN WILL IT BECOME A PRIORITY?   Texas Rangers signed Will Smith for 1.5M, Royal Chapman for 3.75M, Rockies, Brad Hand 2M.  All Left handers. Twins sit on their hands. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Craig Arko said:

Also a rhetorical question: I wonder how Johan Santana would answer this?

Santana pulled himself after 8 innings when he had a chance to tie the record for strikeouts in a game.

Then he was left in to pitch that no hitter with the Mets that virtually derailed what had up until then, looked like a shoe-in HOF career.

I think how Santana would answer that question would be contrary to what most believe a pitcher would answer.

[Florida Flash]

Okay. Everyone is beating on Rocco and the BP. But the biggest reason for the loss was that the offense was totally asleep.

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I would have saved him for a save situation so I'm not willing to make that assumption. If they used him in the 9th they still go to Thielbar in the 10th. If they use him in the 10th they go to Thielbar in the 11th. That's the problem with using your closer in a tie game on the road. If Rocco didn't say he was unavailable I don't think we can assume he was.

Why restrict him? There isn't a pitcher on the roster better suited to start an inning with a runner on 2B. We've seen Rocco use him in high leverage rather than traditional save situations this year too.

It's one game, and there are factors leading up to, and following the game that affect usage so it's not really worth much hand wringing, but waiting for a save opportunity to use your best arm seems like a good way to let a few of those chances slip away. 

[TwinsDr2021]

43 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What did Rocco say? I don't watch post-game pressers because I don't think there's any value in it. Did Rocco say he just felt like taking Ryan out? What was the reason he gave? We all can see that his velo dropped. Everyone watching the game can see the velo on every pitch thrown. I don't expect Rocco to give deep dive explanations of why they took a guy out. They took Ryan out because they felt the best option for getting 3 outs in the 7th inning while giving up the fewest runs was Lopez. I don't need more of an explanation than that, but I understand some do. What if they thought Ryan had given 99% of what he had, and not all he had? What if their data, and Ryan's input, was suggesting he had 5-8 more pitches in him. Should they have sent him back out for those 5-8 pitches?

To me it looked like Ryan was running out of gas. His velo numbers seem to support that as well. Was it 100%, no-doubt-about-it the right answer? No. I can see why you, or anyone, would look at 87 pitches through 6 and want Ryan to go out for a 7th. But I also don't expect, or want, Rocco giving some in depth answer on what they're looking at to make those determinations. I believe Rocco, Maki, Ryan, and the rest of the decision makers last night wanted to win that game more than any of us on these boards so I trust that they were making a decision with that goal in mind. And it was a defensible decision. So I have no problem with it. But I also just see it as an example of the pitfalls of dissecting any decision made on any day, in any game. We simply don't have the info they do about the players to truly judge any individual decision. Maybe Ryan was feeling a little under the weather yesterday and that's why his arm was losing velo a little quicker than usual. Maybe he slept funny and his arm, or legs, or back, or whatever just wasn't quite right. Maybe a million things.

 “[Ryan] had an inning where he had to work a little bit,”  His Velo was a little low and if he would have looked like he did in the 1st he might have went back out likely.

So he did give a bit more reason than I initially thought, but it is still my opinion to see go back out there. It is defensible decision no doubt, I never said it wasn't and I am not dissecting the decision on this game and I am not blaming this loss on this decision. Just because something is defensible doesn't mean you have to like it. For example the decision to trade Arreaz if defensible and lots of people don't like. Like I said before even if it would have worked out, I wouldn't have liked it and I won't like it the next regardless of the results.

 

[chpettit19]

46 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Why restrict him? There isn't a pitcher on the roster better suited to start an inning with a runner on 2B. We've seen Rocco use him in high leverage rather than traditional save situations this year too.

It's one game, and there are factors leading up to, and following the game that affect usage so it's not really worth much hand wringing, but waiting for a save opportunity to use your best arm seems like a good way to let a few of those chances slip away. 

It's not "restricting him." If Duran gets out of the 10th then Thielbar throws the 11th. If they'd used Duran in the 9th Thielbar, or whoever, had to throw the 10th. That's the point. When you're on the road in the 9th inning or later, of a tied game, using your best arm doesn't solve the problem of having to use your other guys. If they were at home I'd have expected him in the 9th or 10th. But not using him on the road makes sense because having used him in a tie game doesn't solve the problem.

I'm all for using your best arms in the highest of leverage situations. They used a guy who hadn't allowed a run all season in the 7th, which was the highest leverage inning before it was tied, and he allowed a HR. It happens. You move on. But once it was tied going to Duran didn't solve the problem since they'd have to use someone else to close the game had the Twins taken the lead.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

52 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I am going with too early (during the regular season). You pull a pitcher too early that pitcher won't pitch again for 5 or 6 days, inning(s) you will never get back, plus it could tax the pen with could result in multiple games being player differently. Pulling too late may cost the game, but hopefully doesn't blew up your pen. (Now I am talking about pulling a guy 1 or two innings early, not a batter or two)

Pulling too late can also lead to injury, leading to the same taxed bullpen as well as testing rotation depth from AAA.

[chpettit19]

24 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

 “[Ryan] had an inning where he had to work a little bit,”  His Velo was a little low and if he would have looked like he did in the 1st he might have went back out likely.

So he did give a bit more reason than I initially thought, but it is still my opinion to see go back out there. It is defensible decision no doubt, I never said it wasn't and I am not dissecting the decision on this game and I am not blaming this loss on this decision. Just because something is defensible doesn't mean you have to like it. For example the decision to trade Arreaz if defensible and lots of people don't like. Like I said before even if it would have worked out, I wouldn't have liked it and I won't like it the next regardless of the results.

 

I don't understand that stance, but to each their own.

[KirbyDome89]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It's not "restricting him." If Duran gets out of the 10th then Thielbar throws the 11th. If they'd used Duran in the 9th Thielbar, or whoever, had to throw the 10th. That's the point. When you're on the road in the 9th inning or later using your best arm doesn't solve the problem of having to use your other guys. If they were at home I'd have expected him in the 9th or 10th. But not using him on the road makes sense because having used him in a tie game doesn't solve the problem.

I'm all for using your best arms in the highest of leverage situations. They used a guy who hadn't allowed a run all season in the 7th, which was the highest leverage inning before it was tied, and he allowed a HR. It happens. You move on. But once it was tied going to Duran didn't solve the problem since they'd have to use someone else to close the game had the Twins taken the lead.

It gives you a better chance to solve the problem, that's my point. If Chicago is going to walk off Thielbar, then make them do that in the 11th and give yourself another inning to hit. 

[Seth Stohs]

17 hours ago, tlkriens said:

My biggest complaint about Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli in his five years in Minneapolis is his use of the bullpen and it reared its ugly head again Tuesday night in Chicago.

https://kornradio.com/news/twins-will-go-as-far-as-rocco-wont-let-them/?fbclid=IwAR0nxoFOO2XZc5xZ1OFt-e6btXUCoPlcXQt-H1dBGp6swujVKJzS3lfNBT0

Is this still a topic? What??

[Squirrel]

28 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Is this still a topic? What??

Welcome to the forums!

[Craig Arko]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

Welcome to the forums!

He must be new here.

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

It gives you a better chance to solve the problem, that's my point. If Chicago is going to walk off Thielbar, then make them do that in the 11th and give yourself another inning to hit. 

Using Duran doesn't solve the problem of other pitchers having to get outs. It can't. Losing in the 11th instead of the 10th isn't better, it's worse. It's why managers don't use their closer in extra innings on the road unless they have a lead.

But maybe you watched the offense last night and thought they were just 1 inning away from really blowing that game open so should've used Duran because there was just such a great chance they'd drop a 5 spot in the 11th. And having 1 of 4 games against the Sox this year decided by more than 1 run (while averaging 3 runs a game against them) should make Rocco really confident that he'll have a blowout on his hands with his rookie pitcher on the mound making his 7th career start tonight so he probably won't need any of his top pen arms tonight so using them all last night wouldn't be a problem.

[mnfireman]

2 runs on 3 hits, not really Baldelli's fault. Maybe the 5 walks lulled them to sleep.