Preview: Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox

[Sherry Cerny]

On Tuesday night, the Twins begin a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox. Fenway is the home of several big name pitchers and hitters, and they have started the season 8-8. What can we expect from this series? 

 

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

A split with the Yankees was not the result the Twins were hoping for after winning the first two games of the four-game series, but the pitching looked solid, which made up for the lack of production from their bats. The Twins had a day off to rest, while Boston played their annual Patriots Day game in the morning against the Angels. The Twins lead the AL Central by one game, and can keep the lead provided the lineup can start scoring runs.

Fun Fact: When David Ortiz left the Twins, he was simply “David Ortiz”. When he arrived in Boston, Red Sox announcer Jerry Remy started to call him “Big Papi” after the Hall of Famer started to rake in runs for the World Series team. 

Weather Factor: It is spring in New England, but there isn’t any rain in the forecast, just cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-50s.

Pitching Probables
Game 1 – Tuesday, April 18th, 2023 – 6:10pm CDT – For the first game of the series, the Twins are sending Sonny Gray (2-0, 0.53 ERA) to the mound to face Chris Sale (1-1, 11.25ERA), Boston's long-time number one starter. Boston is in somewhat of a rebuilding phase and (still) doesn't have any pitching that stands out as a significant threat, but Sale certainly represents their highest ceiling starter. He just hasn't pitched in more than nine games in a season since 2019. Gray has had an incredible start with his lowest ERA to start a season. Prior to an illness-shortened start last week, he allowed only one hit and a career-high 13 strikeouts against the Houston Astros. 

Starting the series against the lefty gives the Twins an opportunity to load their lineup with right-handed bats. Expect most of the left-handed hitters - Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler, Edouard Juilen and Nick Gordon - to be replaced by the likes of Kyle Garlick, Donovan Solano and maybe even Ryan Jeffers. Which lefty manager Rocco Baldelli puts into the lineup might suggest which one he has the most faith in right now.

Game 2 – Wednesday, April 18th, 2023 – 6:10pm CDT - Twins Joe Ryan (3-0, 2.84 ERA) takes the mound opposite veteran Corey Kluber (0-3, 6.92) who is looking for his first win of the season. Kluber is a veteran pitcher with 12 years of experience with two Cy Young Awards under his belt. However, he hasn't been the ace that Twins fans remember since a series of injuries starting in 2019. This year, he has a 6.92 ERA over three starts, though he still has registered 13 strikeouts in 13 innings this season. His downfall has been allowing six walks and four home runs. 

Kluber has had the Twins number in the past. Byron Buxton has struck out six times in 11 AB, and it is 2-for-11 against Kluber. Carlos Correa is 4-for-22. Nobody on the team with at least 10 plate appearances has even a .200 batting average against him. If Kluber pulls out his old magic, the Twin's lineup could be in trouble. 

Ryan has been locked in this season, leading the Twins pitching staff with 26 strikeouts until he was passed by Pablo Lopez on Sunday. He also has the lowest WHIP (0.63) in the rotation and has only allowed six earned runs in his three starts. 

He’ll be asked to control Boston's two star hitters, Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo. Devers and Verdugo have secured 29 RBI for their team; the Twins have 58 RBI as a team. 

Game 3 - Thursday, April 20th, 2023 – 12:35pm CDT - The Twins have not announced a pitcher for Gate 3 against Boston, but it will likely be Kenta Maeda. Boston will send RHP Tanner Houck (2-0, 4.50 ERA) to the mound. Houck has two wins on the season but has struggled with his control, giving up seven walks in just 14 innings. Houck was a first-round draft pick (#24) in the 2017 draft and was a massive part of the Red Sox bullpen last season before his season ended with surgery on his back. He was thrown into the rotation due to injuries in the Red Sox rotation. Whether starting a game or in a reliever position, Houck has done a nice job. He has a career ERA of 3.39 as a starter and 2.68 as a reliever. 

Prediction Time!
What's your prediction for this series? Can Twins rotation stave off the Boston offense of Devers and Verdugo? Lots of positives this week to look forward to; what are you most excited about? Let's go, Twins Territory!

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[blindeke]

Twins take two!

[FlyingFinn]

If the Twins hitters don't get going against these Boston pitchers, the concern for our hitting will be real.

[ashbury]

A series sweep for our Twins, barring injuries.

Why yes, that is my standard disclaimer for the Falvey-Levine Era, thank you for noticing.

[stringer bell]

 The Twins have had a day off to rest, while Boston will be traveling across the country following a series with the Angels and no rest.--not quite. The Sox were playing at home in Fenway Park.

I'll be interested in the lineup against Sale tonight. Joey Gallo could come off the IL and somebody would need to be sent to St Paul. Whoever isn't in the starting lineup on Tuesday between Julien, Castro and Garlick would probably be the one to be sent out. I'm pretty sure they will start Garlick against Sale, even if that means delaying activation of Gallo to Wednesday.

[USAFChief]

Fun Fact: When David Ortiz left the Twins, he was simply “David Ortiz”.

 

Another fun fact: When David Ortiz came to the Twins, he was known in professional baseball as David Arias.

[umterp23]

Makes me laugh that "maybe even a Ryan Jeffers" gets a chance to play.  Yes backup, but Jeffers has to get some credit for performing when he gets a game every once in awhile. It's not like he is dregs of the catching world like we had in past years with other guys... Will he have a slump of some sort, sure everyone does but 

Offense

Vasquez = .333 avg, .415 obp. .417 sig.  .832 ops

Jeffers = .353 avg. 476 obp. .706 sig.  1.182 ops

Nice to see him quietly doing damage with improved plate mechanics year over year and paying it off in limited fashion.  

Defense

Vasquez = .992 field %. 5 stolen bases allowed 1 caught stealing 1 error 0.4 war

Jeffers = 1.000 field %. 3 stolen bases allowed 3 caught stealing 0 error -0.4 war

Kudos to both 

[RpR]

Why Buxton is D.H. and not Jeffers, is odd to me.

Right now Jeffers is hitting, and slimmed down while getting around bases quicker.

Garlick is in left field; his numbers against R.H. pitchers last year is not that bad, 3 home runs,  but I read a game report from last year where he did well against a right hand pitcher.

He said he sees them so seldom,  it feels odd, and he is not sure how adjust his batting.

This day last year we beat Boston 8 to 3, one of the Twins better series.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

 The Twins have had a day off to rest, while Boston will be traveling across the country following a series with the Angels and no rest.--not quite. The Sox were playing at home in Fenway Park.

I'll be interested in the lineup against Sale tonight. Joey Gallo could come off the IL and somebody would need to be sent to St Paul. Whoever isn't in the starting lineup on Tuesday between Julien, Castro and Garlick would probably be the one to be sent out. I'm pretty sure they will start Garlick against Sale, even if that means delaying activation of Gallo to Wednesday.

The lineup they released does in fact include Garlick, and there's been no Gallo activation to my knowledge. I'd assume Gallo is in Boston, though. I haven't seen anyone say that, but I'd guess he'd have met the team yesterday and is prepared to start Wednesday. Will be interesting to see who they send down for him.

[August J Gloop]

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The lineup they released does in fact include Garlick, and there's been no Gallo activation to my knowledge. I'd assume Gallo is in Boston, though. I haven't seen anyone say that, but I'd guess he'd have met the team yesterday and is prepared to start Wednesday. Will be interesting to see who they send down for him.

I would assume Julien as he and Gallo are kind of redundant hitters. Eddie has a good idea of what he needs to work on at AAA and go keep the rake on for when they need him again. 

[ziggy]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Another fun fact: When David Ortiz came to the Twins, he was known in professional baseball as David Arias.

Good memory!!

[jmlease1]

Feeling generally positive about the Twins chances in Boston. Would love for them to jump all over Sale a player I've never liked.

Playing Boston right now is a great reminder of just how wrong i was about Trevor Story being a perfect fit for the Twins that they should have gone all in on.

[stringer bell]

27 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Feeling generally positive about the Twins chances in Boston. Would love for them to jump all over Sale a player I've never liked.

Playing Boston right now is a great reminder of just how wrong i was about Trevor Story being a perfect fit for the Twins that they should have gone all in on.

Cleveland just lost so the Twins lead by 1.5 games. I think coming home with a lead should be a minimum expectation. Two of three should reasonable, making it a winning road trip and 8-5 against Houston, ChiSox, Yankees and Rose Hose. 

[jmlease1]

13 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Cleveland just lost so the Twins lead by 1.5 games. I think coming home with a lead should be a minimum expectation. Two of three should reasonable, making it a winning road trip and 8-5 against Houston, ChiSox, Yankees and Rose Hose. 

Winning road trips are great. If you go 41-40 on the road and 51-30 at home that's a nice 92 win season.

[oregontwin]

The Guardians did lose, but appear to be playing two today. Behind in game 2 as well.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Happy to take two.  Just keep winning series and the standings will turn out just fine. 

[John Belinski]

It is sad to watch the Twins lose a game they should have won. I keep wondering how good the Twins would be with a real manager and not their trainee manager. Good managers have winning records on extra inning games and Rocco has always had a losing record in those games. Last night his closer threw only 19 pitches in the 9th inning, but instead of having him come back in the 10th and win the game Rocco decides to go with another pitcher who loses the game. In past years Rocco has shown he has no clue on how to handle pitchers and he still doesn't. With Rocco as manager the Twins will be just good enough so he will not be replaced, but will never be as good as they could be with a real manager.