Marlins 5, Twins 2: Bats Disappear Again, Bullpen Melts Down, Miami Wins the Series

[mnfireman]

Pagan gives up a run in a game that's not really close and TD posters blow up, but Jax and Thielbar blow up a close, winnable game and crickets.

Lopez, either one, should have pitched to the bottom of the order in the 8th, Pablo's pitch count was still good and he was on a roll, Jorge should be the normal 8th inning guy. The starter pitched the 7th, that's Jax's normal role. Then Duran for the 9th, if he was unavailable, then Lopez for the 9th. Either one. 

But, oh yeah, Baldelli doesn't have conventional bullpen roles. Games might be a little easier to manage if he did....

[Brazilian Twins Fan]

"Bats Disappear Again, Bullpen Melts Down"

Are we back to 2022?

[h2oface]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Pagan gives up a run in a game that's not really close and TD posters blow up, but Jax and Thielbar blow up a close, winnable game and crickets.

Lopez, either one, should have pitched to the bottom of the order in the 8th, Pablo's pitch count was still good and he was on a roll, Jorge should be the normal 8th inning guy. The starter pitched the 7th, that's Jax's normal role. Then Duran for the 9th, if he was unavailable, then Lopez for the 9th. Either one. 

But, oh yeah, Baldelli doesn't have conventional bullpen roles. Games might be a little easier to manage if he did....

 

5 hours ago, h2oface said:

If you don't want to burn through pitchers, why do you remove your starter, who is pitching against his former team with aplomb, had just struck out the side (on 14 dealing pitches), and only has 88 pitches, very probably an innings worth under the 100 his former teammate just showed the previous game how it is so very possible? Miami has a bullpen, too, and could have relieved Alcantara. But he was dealing and they didn't. Is Lopez more fragile? I bring Lopez out for the 8th, and go from there, understanding all the options.

It was a shame that, when they did and brought in Jax, Correa was shifted to defend a lefty when a righty was at bat. Yes, Segura had hit it up the middle earlier, but what happened to the %'s here? Correa in the normal place for a righty, and it is a routine grounder and 2 outs for Jax. That play changed the game. 

I know it is early, and Theilbar got bombed at the beginning of last year, too, and then ended up having his best year, but I fear for the confidence in Theilbar. I have been saying all spring that last year was probably the one shining end of the season. The smoke has cleared and the mirrors are cracked. I hope I am wrong, but this performance isn't helping. Theilbar not only tanked his early season ERA, but he crushed Jax's even worse with the IRS! Thanks Caleb.

Here come 10 against the Astros, White Sox, and Yankees (4)......... from last place teams to front runners. Now we see how this team measures up. 

I'm not a cricket!!  😇

But Jax didn't blow it up, IMO. Really, he just gave up a single considering the infield "hit" that Correa was out of position for shouldn't have been a hit, but the second out! And he very well could have handled it with runners on first and second and one out, but didn't get the chance. It should have been a runner on first and two outs. I would say Baldelli (first by pulling Lopez, having Correa shift to the right, and bringing in Thielbar) and Thielbar blew up the game. Jax got the blown up ERA, and didn't deserve it.

But also, make no mistake, I hate to see Pagan still on this team, and he is still a time bomb ticking.

[ashbury]

16 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I believe that we claimed St Paul was a great place for AAA so we could get players moved quickly.  If we lose Castro it is not a tragedy.  I maintain we need an outfielder for the OF, but my opinion carries no weight.

40-man roster considerations make even St Paul as far away as the moon for those players not on it.

Besides that, for me the need is neither an infielder nor an outfielder, but a bat, plus Buxton in CF and Taylor in a backup role.

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Hope the Twins lose 58 more games this year 😊

[dxpavelka]

This team scored fewer than 700 runs last year and did little to fix the offense.  Our best pitcher has thrown ONE inning because he hurt himself sleeping?

 

[Jocko87]

Somebody post receipts that they wanted Garlick on the roster over Castro before today.  If not, please stop.  Luzardo is a flat stud, when you check on Arraez line everyday keep an eye on him too.  If he stays healthy, Miami has a 1A and 1B set of aces (on a 4th place team).

[stringer bell]

8 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Pagan gives up a run in a game that's not really close and TD posters blow up, but Jax and Thielbar blow up a close, winnable game and crickets.

Lopez, either one, should have pitched to the bottom of the order in the 8th, Pablo's pitch count was still good and he was on a roll, Jorge should be the normal 8th inning guy. The starter pitched the 7th, that's Jax's normal role. Then Duran for the 9th, if he was unavailable, then Lopez for the 9th. Either one. 

But, oh yeah, Baldelli doesn't have conventional bullpen roles. Games might be a little easier to manage if he did....

Traditional bullpen roles would not have given the ball to JLopez in the 8th. If the Twins were ahead, sure. Tie game on the road in the bottom of the 8th and Rocco went with the guy who isn't the setup man or closer, just as most managers with traditional roles do it. 

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

This team scored fewer than 700 runs last year and did little to fix the offense.  Our best pitcher has thrown ONE inning because he hurt himself sleeping?

 

Vazquez does not count?  His wRC+ is 129

Gallo does not count?  His wRC+ is 195.

They got Farmer and Solano to bolster offense against LHP.  

Larnach is back.  Did you want them to keep him in AAA?  His wRC+ is 209.

They retooled Jeffers swing.  His wRC+ is 286.

The problem is the guys they (and we) relied on the most are not hitting with the exception of Buxton.  Polanco is out.  Correa, Gordon and Miranda have been very unproductive.  Those four guys are not anyone we would want replaced so to say the problem is they “did nothing” ignores some very obvious facts.

[dxpavelka]

9 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Vazquez does not count?  His wRC+ is 129

Gallo does not count?  His wRC+ is 195.

They got Farmer and Solano to bolster offense against LHP.  

Larnach is back.  Did you want them to keep him in AAA?  His wRC+ is 209.

They retooled Jeffers swing.  His wRC+ is 286.

The problem is the guys they (and we) relied on the most are not hitting with the exception of Buxton.  Polanco is out.  Correa, Gordon and Miranda have been very unproductive.  Those four guys are not anyone we would want replaced so to say the problem is they “did nothing” ignores some very obvious facts.

The only thing that counts is the math.  Fewer than 700 runs last year and on pace for fewer this year.  In spite of an unsustainable start by Sano Lite.

[stringer bell]

25 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

The only thing that counts is the math.  Fewer than 700 runs last year and on pace for fewer this year.  In spite of an unsustainable start by Sano Lite.

I think it's way to early to draw firm conclusions. Last year, the Twins were in the middle of the pack in runs scored with 696. For every hot start, there is a cold start right now and the Twins have face #1 and #2 starters in four of their six games (granted KC's aren't top of the line). I'd withhold judgment on both the offense and pitching staff until the end of the month. My guess is that the team will be towards the top in run prevention and in the middle of run scoring. 

[umterp23]

The math on paper doesn't tell the complete story.  Nationals faced the Astros for the title.  Tell the Nationals they can't compete by the math.  Nationals scored as team: 603 runs, 5th worst in all of baseball.  Their pitching staff gave up 855 runs, which was next to last.  They were never out of a ballgame due to timely hitting.  Sustainable year over year, no but Twins were above avg in each category last year.

Boils down to managerial decisions before and during the game and having healthy guys play where they are supposed to play on the field.  Twins can win regardless of the math

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

The only thing that counts is the math.  Fewer than 700 runs last year and on pace for fewer this year.  In spite of an unsustainable start by Sano Lite.

That's not what you said.  You said the problem was that they didn't do anything.  That's your go to move.  Management is stupid.  The facts is that the players that we all expected produce are not and Polanco is hurt.  

[USAFChief]

26 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

The math on paper doesn't tell the complete story.  Nationals faced the Astros for the title.  Tell the Nationals they can't compete by the math.  Nationals scored as team: 603 runs, 5th worst in all of baseball.  Their pitching staff gave up 855 runs, which was next to last.  They were never out of a ballgame due to timely hitting.  Sustainable year over year, no but Twins were above avg in each category last year.

Wut?

The Nats went 55-107 last year. They were "out of" 2 or 3 games per week. And they most certainly didn't face the Astros for the title. 

I doubt they'll take my call, but if they do I'll tell them they can't compete by the math.

[mnfireman]

4 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Traditional bullpen roles would not have given the ball to JLopez in the 8th. If the Twins were ahead, sure. Tie game on the road in the bottom of the 8th and Rocco went with the guy who isn't the setup man or closer, just as most managers with traditional roles do it. 

I'll go with the 8th inning guy gets the ball here because of the day off on Thursday and you see how it plays out. IF Duran is unavailable is the only way this changes. Jax and Thielbar do not get the ball until innings 10 & 11. 

[Nivaboy]

Solano hitting 3rd? Understand the logic, tough to swallow. Willi Castro bless your heart, but I cannot wait for Kiriloff/Polanco to get healthy. That being said, 4 wins a week will get us 100 so can't be too upset with our start. Played 2 really good starters. Having to play 4 bench players two days in a row is a little worrisome, maybe we start emphasizing stealing/small ball to manufacture more runs with our weak lineup?

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

The problem that manifested itself the last 2 says is the problem many if not most of us saw coming - the lineup isn't long enough to withstand injury. Yes, the bench players we have are better than those last August or September but they are still bench players who should only be used sparingly and then hitting in the 8 or 9 holes.  I agree with the Arraez trade - we needed a horse high end starter like Lopez - but it did exacerbate the weaknesses of what was not a great offense to start out with. We are at least 2 bats short, and that's with guys like Larnach, Miranda and Gordon actually clicking. 

We need Polanco back as his old self pretty badly. Hopefully that will happen in the next couple of weeks. We also need Miranda and Gordon to hit like last year, Buxton to stay healthy and hitting, and Correa just to be at his career norms. All of this possible and perhaps even likely. Kirilloff hitting would be nice but not something we can even project, much less count on. Its' too early to panic but not too early to see the potential problem. 

[UpstateNewYorker]

49 minutes ago, Nivaboy said:

Solano hitting 3rd? Understand the logic, tough to swallow. Willi Castro bless your heart, but I cannot wait for Kiriloff/Polanco to get healthy. That being said, 4 wins a week will get us 100 so can't be too upset with our start. Played 2 really good starters. Having to play 4 bench players two days in a row is a little worrisome, maybe we start emphasizing stealing/small ball to manufacture more runs with our weak lineup?

 

This article by Tom Verducci points out how speed and small-ball seem to be a strategy again. The current Twins are not built for this at all, which is a problem. 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/04/05/diamondbacks-padres-mlb-new-rules-stolen-bases-speed

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, UpstateNewYorker said:

This article by Tom Verducci points out how speed and small-ball seem to be a strategy again. The current Twins are not built for this at all, which is a problem. 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/04/05/diamondbacks-padres-mlb-new-rules-stolen-bases-speed

I hate to like this, but I believe it is right on the mark. Watching just Twins games this year, speed and base stealing has had minimal impact, but I believe it will be a pretty big factor going forward. 

[stringer bell]

59 minutes ago, Nivaboy said:

Willi Castro bless your heart, but I cannot wait for Kiriloff/Polanco to get healthy.

 

Compare Willi Castro today to Nick Gordon a year ago (same age). Castro is younger, faster, more versatile with a similar offensive profile. We all know Nick had a nice second half and looks like a much better hitter, but it wouldn’t totally surprise me if Willi Castro ends up being a better player than Nick Gordon. 

[Jocko87]

9 minutes ago, UpstateNewYorker said:

This article by Tom Verducci points out how speed and small-ball seem to be a strategy again. The current Twins are not built for this at all, which is a problem. 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/04/05/diamondbacks-padres-mlb-new-rules-stolen-bases-speed

I like how it seems to level the field, bringing more skill types into play brings more players into the pool and helps the smaller markets.  I don't think it will change the big market bombers, the analytics will always favor the 3 run bomb in the long term if you can afford that talent.  It will change how those teams play situational ball at times.  They will be more likely to have a scrappy fast bench guy to install for those spots where one run is crucial.  The analytics will adapt to this new reality and make that last bench spot a weapon rather than an emergency catcher.

I've long believed that the extra inning free runner situation always favored a more old school approach but teams haven't had the personnel on the roster.  Taylor can fill this roll for the Twins a little bit, he's not Terrance Gore but can run, steal and bunt and stay in for defense.  Lewis when he comes back also.  That's reason #987 Buxton in CF is better than DH, Taylor is very valuable when you can install him in short term attack mode. 

[Jocko87]

5 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Compare Willi Castro today to Nick Gordon a year ago (same age). Castro is younger, faster, more versatile with a similar offensive profile. We all know Nick had a nice second half and looks like a much better hitter, but it wouldn’t totally surprise me if Willi Castro ends up being a better player than Nick Gordon. 

I believe both of these statements to be true.  If the full roster is healthy, Gordon might have been the odd man out in favor of Castro except for Castro having an option available.

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I believe both of these statements to be true.  If the full roster is healthy, Gordon might have been the odd man out in favor of Castro except for Castro having an option available.

Specifically, it won't break my heart to see Castro sent to the minors, but he could be a Triple A All-Star IMHO and someone that steps in somewhere as a truly valuable and versatile super-sub. About the only way that would be in Minnesota would be if Nick Gordon fails or gets injured. That is because Gordon is cheaper and can't be sent to the minors without being DFAed.

[Rosterman]

Shades of Gardy. We started the four guys who are basically the bench players. We had a pretty strong bench for this game.

[Jocko87]

30 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Specifically, it won't break my heart to see Castro sent to the minors, but he could be a Triple A All-Star IMHO and someone that steps in somewhere as a truly valuable and versatile super-sub. About the only way that would be in Minnesota would be if Nick Gordon fails or gets injured. That is because Gordon is cheaper and can't be sent to the minors without being DFAed.

The salary is the least of it, the true cost would be exposing Gordon and loosing him.

[umterp23]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Wut?

The Nats went 55-107 last year. They were "out of" 2 or 3 games per week. And they most certainly didn't face the Astros for the title. 

I doubt they'll take my call, but if they do I'll tell them they can't compete by the math.

That's what I get thinking of Harper and Nationals and not Harper and Phillies.  So yes, you are correct, I'm off base.  Now if I look at Phillies:  above avg for both run scores and runs given up but not leaders in either category.  If you add in Runs allowed per game, Astros were 2nd with 3.20, Phillies were 15th with 4.23 and our Twins (14th) were better at 4.22.

Still stand by the managerial moves and timely hitting though.  Some teams who made playoffs weren't bombers but had solid pitching and defense.  Astros had it all on paper, so not surprised they won it all

[stringer bell]

18 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

That's what I get thinking of Harper and Nationals and not Harper and Phillies.  So yes, you are correct, I'm off base.  Now if I look at Phillies:  above avg for both run scores and runs given up but not leaders in either category.  If you add in Runs allowed per game, Astros were 2nd with 3.20, Phillies were 15th with 4.23 and our Twins (14th) were better at 4.22.

Still stand by the managerial moves and timely hitting though.  Some teams who made playoffs weren't bombers but had solid pitching and defense.  Astros had it all on paper, so not surprised they won it all

Three recent pennant winners in the NL were far different teams in the playoffs compared to where they were at the All-Star break. 2019 Nats, 2021 Braves and 2022 Phillies. Nats got healthy and added a couple of key performers as they won the World Series. Braves remade their outfield--Rosario, Soler, Duvall--and won the WS and the Phillies caught fire after being around .500. The Phillies won 87 regular season games last year, the Braves won 88 in '21 and the Nats won 93 in '19. They were far different teams when they hit the stretch run and the playoffs.

[Woof Bronzer]

Been thinking about something the last couple days.  I'm sure it won't go over well here but lemme get it off the ol' chest.  I think the club really messed up the Alcantara game by sitting Buxton and trotting out the b squad of relievers.  Because they had all the momentum in the world with that 4-0 start, coming off of 2 straight offensive explosions.  They took their foot off the gas on Tuesday it seems.  End of the world?  No, but games count as much in April as in September.  Look how different the Twins season feels at 4-2 vs 4-0.  That one loss spiraled into 2 with a very much shades of 2022 loss yesterday.  Man, if they would have come into the Astro series unbeaten and riding high, hey, maybe they take the series from the defending champs and everyone's confidence level is through the roof.  Say what you want about the Falvine/Baldelli era Twins, but they have never possessed a killer instinct and I think the team can get too comfortable with rest days and getaway day lineups and saving good relievers for only when you are winning.  

I don't know.  I know this is "soft" stuff and the saber crowd will ridicule it.  But I do think it matters.  For the first 4 games I saw a new and improved club.  For the last 2 I saw 2021/22 all over again.  

Okay, feel free to tear me a new one now :)

[Battle ur tail off]

21 hours ago, Danchat said:

So far, things are panning out as expected... the starters look great, the bullpen is fine, and the hitters are very questionable... we're just not going to be scoring a lot of runs when Solano, Castro, and Taylor are in the same lineup.

I would say you are right and it goes back to injuries. Get Polanco, Kiriloff and Lewis back and we will see if it looks any better though. 

[Tyler from Oregon]

There's only so much you can do when facing two top tier pitchers, but this offense has really mastered the art of disappearing when facing good pitching. Correa is also looking similar to how he did at the beginning of 2022. A lot of terrible swings.