Ranking the Twins Top-5 Power Tool Prospects: 2023

[Cody Christie]

Hitting for power has become an even more critical tool in an age of exit velocities and barrel rates. Here are five Twins prospects to watch during the 2023 season because of their power tool.

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins have altered their roster recently since setting MLB's all-time home run record in 2019. Last season, Minnesota didn't have any 30-home-run hitters, so the last two Twins hitters with 30 homers were Jorge Polanco (33 HR) and Miguel Sano (30 HR) in 2021. The five prospects below can join the 30-homer club when given a chance at the big-league level in the years ahead.

Scouts and front office personnel use a 20-80 scale to evaluate players' tools. This ranking system also projects how those tools will improve as the player develops. Below are the top five Twins prospects regarding current and future power potential.

5. Royce Lewis, SS/OF
Current Power/Future Power: 55/60
Lewis is recovering from his second ACL surgery in as many seasons, but he has many skills to be considered a five-tool player. Throughout the rehab process, he has added muscle to his frame, and the Twins saw some of those results in 2022. Last season, he hit .313/.405/.534 (.940) with 12 doubles and five home runs in 34 Triple-A games. Lewis showed flashes of his power in 12 big-league games by going 12-for-40 (.300 BA) with four doubles and two home runs. Minnesota hopes to have Lewis back in the line-up for the second half of the 2023 season. 

4. Brooks Lee, SS 
Current Power/Future Power: 55/60 
Lee makes such consistent contact that power is natural and can spray the ball to all fields. In his final two collegiate seasons, he averaged over 40 extra-base hits with a 1.073 OPS. Lee showed flashes of his power potential during his professional debut. He combined for ten extra-base hits and an .839 OPS in 31 games. During spring training, Lee has impressed many, including Carlos Correa, with his offensive approach and work ethic. He is likely heading to Double-A to start the season, but he may debut during the 2023 season. 

3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
Current Power/Future Power: 55/65
Rodriguez is one of the most exciting prospects in the Twins system, and he could be a monster power hitter. He was a breakout prospect at Low-A last season while hitting .272/.493/.552 (1.044) with more walks (57) than strikeouts (52). The Florida State League can be a challenging environment for hitters, but Rodriguez shined with five doubles, three triples, and nine home runs. He's entering his age-20 season, and he hopes to add even more muscle to his frame to increase his power. By this time next season, he has a chance to be the Twins' top-rated prospect and a global top-20 prospect.

2. Aaron Sabato, 1B/DH
Current Power/Future Power: 60/60
The Twins drafted Sabato for one reason, his tremendous power potential. The pandemic limited his college career, but he posted a 1.158 OPS in 83 games. Last season, he hit .215/.336/.438 (.774) with 17 doubles and 22 home runs between High-A and Double-A. Sabato will spend the 2023 season in the minor's upper levels as he attempts to compile a breakout season. He is the lowest-rated prospect on this list, but the current front office drafted him in the first round, so they will give him every opportunity to find success. 

1. Matt Wallner, OF
Current Power/Future Power: 65/65
Wallner is coming off a season where he was named the Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Year. In 128 minor league games, he hit .277/.412/.542 (953) with 32 doubles, four triples, and 27 home runs. The Twins called him up in September, and he went 13-for-57 (.228) with five extra-base hits and a 105 OPS+ in 18 games. Minnesota's added depth at the big-league level has pushed Wallner down the organizational depth chart, but he's had fewer than 200 at-bats in Triple-A. Wallner will start the year in St. Paul, with his powerful swing being one injury away from the big leagues.

Who do you think has the best power in the Twins system? Should someone else make the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[miracleb]

Love these type of articles Cody!  Boy....the video/photo of Wallner (and that big leg kick,) is a recipe for striking out!

[gman]

I am surprised that Lewis is rated this high in the power department. Always thought he was more hit and run type player. The others I expected including Lee. I do expect Lewis, Lee and Rodriguez in the everyday lineup in a couple of years when added to Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Correa and Jeffrey, along with Julian, Wallner and Martin there should be consistent power throughout the lineup.

[chpettit19]

Curious where these grades came from. Are they Cody's grades or did he pull them from some scouting sites? I don't remember any scouting reports I've seen on either Lewis or Lee that had them at 60 FV grades for their power, but I don't check all the sites. I think that's a little high for both of them, but would certainly be nice if they develop that kind of power!

[JD-TWINS]

If Lee & Lewis can play 2nd & 3rd and hit 20 HR each with similar output from CC, we’ll be pretty good!

With Larnach & Kiriloff both on the cusp of everyday line-up guys along with Buxton & Walner, we have 20 HR power throughout the line-up, including DH going forward. Miranda is at this level of power as well!

If Gordon gets 525 AB’s he projects to 38 doubles & 13 HR……gotta play v. RH starters.

Julien is going to have to be really good to play regularly in ‘24.

‘24, fresh, 13 man everyday guys:

Buxton - Correa - Lewis - Lee - Kiriloff - Larnach - Gordon - Vazquez - Jeffries - Farmer (under contract) - Walner - Miranda - Julien ……about $70M total for 13 position players.

Solano - Gallo - Taylor - Polanco - Kepler (about $36M replaced by $3.8M) all gone regardless of success due to inexpensive talent push behind them. Don’t see room for Sobato. Rodriguez during the year possibly.

Focus spending on extending &/or FA pitching.

6 RH hitters -  6 LH hitters - 1 both. At least 9 of them with 20 HR power. As far as additions to Top 5, I think Julien has a chance to get to 20 HR power because of his selectiveness and probability to see good pitches to hit……may not get nearly enough AB’s?

[FlyingFinn]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't remember any scouting reports I've seen on either Lewis or Lee that had them at 60 FV grades for their power,

I also am wondering how Lewis and Lee ranked higher in the power department than Chris Williams who had 18 homers in AA and 10 in AAA last year (50 extra base hits in total).

[Doctor Gast]

9 hours ago, miracleb said:

Love these type of articles Cody!  Boy....the video/photo of Wallner (and that big leg kick,) is a recipe for striking out!

Wallner has a lot of raw talent that needs to be refined, Popkins, definitely could help with his swing, in reducing his SOs.

[Trov]

The sad part about this is the top 2 guys will have limited time in MLB I expect.  The bottom 3 have the hit tool to combine with the power tool.  Power is all good, but if you can hardly make contact that does not mean much.  

[tony&rodney]

This will be an important year for a number of Twins prospects. Sabato has not shown much thus far but I agree he will get a full opportunity to show whether he has the skills to advance with the bat. Wallner has had two big years and seems on the edge of becoming an MLB player. Still, he does have to show a big improvement in the field and also in making contact. The game is still favorable for power hitters, but those guys who strike out too much and struggle to make contact when a ground ball is necessary are slowly being edged out. The Twins will be keeping a close eye on Julien to see if he is for real and can repeat his game at the highest level. Despite not having a clear position defensively, any bat that hits .280 or better with substantial extra base power and an elite walk rate will force its way into a MLB lineup. I do believe Lewis has some power but we should be patient with both Lee and Rodriguez. Lee did look overmatched the last few weeks in the games in Florida. It should be interesting to see who adapts and improves this season amongst our younger players.

[TopGunn#22]

Add the #5 overall pick in the June draft as a "mystery player."  We could very well take a pitcher if one falls but there's no denying someone with a lot of talent will be available there.  

[2wins87]

On 3/19/2023 at 10:56 AM, chpettit19 said:

Curious where these grades came from. Are they Cody's grades or did he pull them from some scouting sites? I don't remember any scouting reports I've seen on either Lewis or Lee that had them at 60 FV grades for their power, but I don't check all the sites. I think that's a little high for both of them, but would certainly be nice if they develop that kind of power!

Fangraphs has Lewis at 60/70 raw power, and 40/60 game power.

I'm not sure why no one seems to think of Lewis as having power.  His max exit velo in his majors stint last year was 114 mph which is 94th percentile in the MLB.  His average exit velo was above average too.

I'm a little less sure about Lee, but he has had a good number of 100+ exit velos this spring. He still strikes me as more of a line-drive contact hitter so far, but he can hit the ball pretty hard.

 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, 2wins87 said:

Fangraphs has Lewis at 60/70 raw power, and 40/60 game power.

I'm not sure why no one seems to think of Lewis as having power.  His max exit velo in his majors stint last year was 114 mph which is 94th percentile in the MLB.  His average exit velo was above average too.

I'm a little less sure about Lee, but he has had a good number of 100+ exit velos this spring. He still strikes me as more of a line-drive contact hitter so far, but he can hit the ball pretty hard.

 

I didn't say I don't think of Lewis as having power. I said I don't see him graded with 60 grade FV power. Clearly missed, or forgot about, the Fangraphs grades, but 40/60 is WAY different than 55/60. We'll see what their grades are for him this year. They also have Lee at 30/50 game power which is most certainly not 55/60. I was just curious as to where Cody was getting these grades.

There's a reason baseball savant doesn't have his average exit velos on his main percentile card. 35 batted balls is an awfully small sample size. I was calling for Lewis to start last year in the bigs because I think he's a star. I'd put him in RF for the Twins the second he's healthy this season. I love Lee and hope he earns his debut this season. That doesn't mean they're top 5 in the system strictly when it comes to power. I'm just curious where Cody is coming up with these 5 guys all having 55 or better current power grades. I think that's an extreme level of grading. Emmanuel Rodriguez could not step into a major league lineup and hit 20+ homeruns, I'm sorry. I don't think Lee could either. Sobato would be lucky to put 25 balls in play let alone hit 25+ homers. Maybe Lewis could so I'll take back my questioning of his grade. The rest are pretty extreme.

[Mike Sixel]

I really believe in Wallner.....

[Steve Lein]

On 3/19/2023 at 9:39 AM, gman said:

I am surprised that Lewis is rated this high in the power department. Always thought he was more hit and run type player. The others I expected including Lee. I do expect Lewis, Lee and Rodriguez in the everyday lineup in a couple of years when added to Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Correa and Jeffrey, along with Julian, Wallner and Martin there should be consistent power throughout the lineup.

Lewis definitely grew into more power than expected initially when they drafted him!

I remember many comments from scouts, etc... at the Arizona Fall League the year he won the MVP, that he was one of the most impressive batting practice sessions to watch due to that increase.

[Seth Stohs]

On 3/19/2023 at 3:05 PM, FlyingFinn said:

I also am wondering how Lewis and Lee ranked higher in the power department than Chris Williams who had 18 homers in AA and 10 in AAA last year (50 extra base hits in total).

Hopefully @Cody Christie will come in and answer some of these questions. I think, for some reason, he just uses like the Top 30 Prospects, presumably because Baseball America will have the tool ratings... 

Chris Williams absolutely has more power than Lee and Lewis. That said, I think Lewis can be a 25-30 homer per year guy in the big leagues. I don't think Lee will hit for as much power as Lewis unless he alters his swing just a little. But Williams isn't a Top 40 prospect by most evaluators. 

[Cody Christie]

43 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Hopefully @Cody Christie will come in and answer some of these questions. I think, for some reason, he just uses like the Top 30 Prospects, presumably because Baseball America will have the tool ratings... 

Chris Williams absolutely has more power than Lee and Lewis. That said, I think Lewis can be a 25-30 homer per year guy in the big leagues. I don't think Lee will hit for as much power as Lewis unless he alters his swing just a little. But Williams isn't a Top 40 prospect by most evaluators. 

Yes, I was using players that are considered among the team's top prospects. Those sites tend to only have current/future values for the top players in the system. 

[Schmoeman5]

Power might still play, but a Molitor type hitter would suit me just fine. Hit .300 with 30 or 40 doubles and 15-20 homers. Lewis could be that person. Maybe Lee or Julien.