5 Questions Facing the Twins Top 5 Prospects in 2023

I will be both disappointed and surprised if Lee doesn't play for the Twins this year.  Only questions seem to be when and at what position?

Likewise excited waiting for Lewis to finally join the Twins, for good.  Hopefully, he is back by the 4th of July.  Like Lee, where will he be in the field?

You have seen me comment way too often that other teams have had that young stud break in when he was 19 or 20.  You know, guys like Acuna or the Robin Yount's of yesteryear.  Can Em Rodriguez be that player for the Twins?  Sure would be nice, wouldn't it?

Love Raya and want to see him have an eye popping season at Wichita before the year is over.

Really like Julien.  Just don't know how he is going to fit on this team.  Will he stick as a utility guy who can play several infield positions, while spending most games as a DH?  Don't see how he can be their second baseman as I expect that to be either Lee or Lewis, with the other at third.  And the problem that scenario creates is it pushes Miranda to backup first base and DH.  Expect we are gonna see one of this young group moving on, just don't know who.

Brooks Lee: Will he make his big-league debut? Yes, I would say by mid-year after he lights up AA.  I know it's quick, but you can only hold back a talent like this so long.

Royce Lewis: How will the team handle him when he is healthy? Very carefully.  He will start at St. Paul if the team is not raked by injury in which case he will be at Target Field.

Emmanuel Rodriguez: Does he have the highest ceiling of any Twins prospect? Possibly, given what we've seen him do at his age.  That said, we've also seen younger players regress as they move up and face tougher competition.  The jury is still out on the highest ceiling, but may be answered after this season.

Marco Raya: Can his body type hold up with more innings? Yes it can if he works out like Berrios did.  Those of us older TD folks may recall Tommy Hall who was very slight but was a very good pitcher.  Marco can be one of those who overcome body limitations.

Edouard Julien: How quickly can he impact the big-league roster? He will be up sooner rather than later if we incur injuries in the IF or if he shows off his high offensive capabilities and is adequate on defense in AAA.  He also could come up if the team decides to trade Polanco at the deadline or if Kirilloff has issues at FB and we need him there.  Maybe they should play him at FB some in St. Paul in preparation for this type of move.

If everyone is healthy (wouldn't that be a miracle) and playing well, we will only see Lewis this year, and that would be mostly in the OF. Early injuries opens the way for Julien. The later it gets into the season, it will more likely be Lee. Rodriguez and Raya getting to AA this year seems like where they will end up. Will be exciting if all of them stay healthy. The Twins would love to have the problem that the vets played great and the prospects and trying to break the door down to the major leagues.

LEE: Despite his great ST, it's only smart for him to go to AA and move to AAA after he's ramped up and performing as expected. That could be in as little as a month, but I expect 2. I think there's a legitimate chance he sees MLB sometime in 2023. But I'm OK if he doesn't. Why? It means the Twins are healthy and playing winning baseball. Nothing wrong with him debuting in 2024 after a 1 and 1/2 seasons of milb.

LEWIS: He also complicates any arrival by Lee. When he's 100%, I don't expect him to be rushed. But we've all seen how good he is from last year. He's up before Lee, and hopefully ready to go by the second half.

RODRIGUEZ: Supreme young talent. Just a shame he got hurt last year to shorten his season. Does he begin 2023 at Ft Myers just to get going? Or does he look good enough to begin the year at A+ CR? I won't be upset if he doesn't reach AA coming off a missed half season, but I believe he reaches Wichita for at least a cup of coffee before the end of the year. ETA: 2025 but possibly late 2024.

RAYA: His build doesn't bother me as not every good/great pitcher is 6' 3" and 225lbs. There is arm talent and smooth, repetitive delivery. And he can be well built and well conditioned at 6' 195lbs. He just needs experience and IP. Like Rodriguez, does he begin at A- initially to ramp up? Or is he already prepared for A+? I'm betting he's ready for Cedar Rapids and a few turns at AA before the season is done. I just want to see 100 IP this year.

JULIEN: He's going to play for the Twins this year. He will be OK at 2B, and will be playing some 1B as well. The only question is when and how much. And that has a lot to do with the health and production of the ML team.

SELFISH ADD: I want to see Prielipp get 60-80 IP between low and high A ball. Not sure I care or expect to see him at AA in 2023. I just want a healthy and productive first year of pro ball and get ready for 100+ IP in 2024.

I’d be shocked if we saw Lee this year unless there’s a serious injury to Correa or Miranda, or Miranda’s performance falls off the planet.

If someone is needed to play 1B/DH, there’s just so many guys there other than Miranda, and Julien would likely get the first call.

Have they been moving him off of SS at all yet?  

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

How could that be? Five players play so well, and things go well in the majors for five players? Which MLB player would play well, and get replaced?

The Twins replace three fielders, it seems likely things aren't going well. Plus they passed Larnach at least. 

Let me take a shot at this and see where it goes.

Kepler keeps batting around 100 OPS+ and Walner gets called up and hits 125 OPS+ and takes Keplers spot.

Gallo OPS around .740 with lots of Ks and Lewis gets called up and hits 130 OPS + with normal K rate

Julien gets called up to help out at 1B and 2B to get Polanco and Killeroff some rest and hits 140 OPS + and also gets time at DH

Marco Raya gets called up late August to help in the pen and domintates.

THats the best i got.  it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.  

29 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If Wallner, Lewis, and Julien come up and OPS+ 125, 130, and 140 the Twins are winning the World Series this year.

The question was how would 5 minor leaguers come up and get jobs in a season that things are going fine.  So it has to be this type of outcome for both the starter who gets replaced and the rookie who takes over.

13 hours ago, Brandon said:

Let me take a shot at this and see where it goes.

Kepler keeps batting around 100 OPS+ and Walner gets called up and hits 125 OPS+ and takes Keplers spot.

Gallo OPS around .740 with lots of Ks and Lewis gets called up and hits 130 OPS + with normal K rate

Julien gets called up to help out at 1B and 2B to get Polanco and Killeroff some rest and hits 140 OPS + and also gets time at DH

Marco Raya gets called up late August to help in the pen and domintates.

THats the best i got.  it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.  

I think there is a more realistic scenario when things haven't went completely wrong in the Majors.

Lee is dominating AA, get moved up to AAA and is still killing it. Miranda or AK is slumping a bit and with options left they bring up Lee to see if he can continue being hot in the majors.

Laranch and Wallner struggle in AAA and ERod is going nuts in the minors and they bring him up to move Kepler to the bench.

Lewis comes back from injury and is doing amazing, and they bring him up to play a little 3B,1B, LF, CF and DH.

I can't see Raya in the majors this year, he is 20 and I think with the current starters and him not being on the 40 he is way too far down the depth chart no matter how great he is.

Julien could be up if the current back ups are just not getting it done.

All these could happen and the Twins are playing plus .500 ball.

Probably won't happen but....

Raya has zero IPs above low A.  There is zero chance he debuts this year.  Lee has 8 PAs at AA.  Things would have to go horribly wrong with the twins for him to see any time at the ML level. 

Lewis is the most likely IMO because he can play several positions. 

Solano is the most likely to get forced out by either Lewis or Julien. 

I would love for either Walner or Larnach to play well- enough to take the starting job away from Kepler in the manner Arraez took over for Schoop.  Ideally, Max is playing well enough to be traded but one of the prospects is good enough to force it.

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I get that, but those outcomes aren't realistic. Which I think goes to the point @Mike Sixel is trying to make. If the major league team is doing well, veterans are performing, and the team is staying relatively healthy, there's not an easy to see, realistic way for multiple guys to come up and take jobs. And I'm not saying you were predicting those outcomes, but just saying they're very, very, very unlikely to happen.

The most likely situation of a winning Twins team having veterans replaced is by replacing someone like Solano first. And I'd bet that the team's hope is that he's replaced by Lewis, Lee, or Julien by July. But I think they'll be rather slow to replace most of the guys on the 26 man because they can't afford to have another season cratered by lack of depth. I think a segment of the fan base is too excited for the young guys and are expecting the Twins to give jobs to them quicker than the team realistically will. They aren't going to trade, or DFA, multiple veterans on a successful team. Maybe they'd trade Polanco for a haul, but they aren't trading Polanco, Gallo, and Kepler. I don't think they plan to move Farmer or Taylor at all. 

Injuries can change everything, but, barring that, I don't see a real easy path to more than 2 of these guys really getting a shot at taking jobs this year.

I don’t believe my scenario above would happen.  I was just taking a guess as to how the scenario could play out.  Realistically I can see Lewis getting called up to play in the OF.  And maybe Julien getting called up for a little playing time at 1B, 2B, and DH with maybe 100 plate appearances and Lee getting a debut at the end of the season.

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Raya has zero IPs above low A.  There is zero chance he debuts this year.  Lee has 8 PAs at AA.  Things would have to go horribly wrong with the twins for him to see any time at the ML level. 

Lewis is the most likely IMO because he can play several positions. 

Solano is the most likely to get forced out by either Lewis or Julien. 

I would love for either Walner or Larnach to play well- enough to take the starting job away from Kepler in the manner Arraez took over for Schoop.  Ideally, Max is playing well enough to be traded but one of the prospects is good enough to force it.

I honestly believe Lewis and Lee will both play for the Twins this year.  And I am not talking about only a cup of coffee.  They are special young men and will be leaders of this team for much of the next decade.

Emmanuel and Marco are still raw and even explosive seasons will not bring them to Target Field. Brooks Lee is pretty refined and skillful, yet he still needs to get up to speed with professional baseball. a brilliant year for him ends in St. Paul. It would take injuries to several players to push Lee to the majors. The three guys in this paragraph are looking to debut this year. They are focused on learning to have good at bats by recognizing what pitchers are doing to attempt to defeat them.

I think we should expect both Lewis and Julien to see time this year. Lewis will need a rehab stint in St. Paul after he is cleared to play and could be called up right away if he shows he is ready to pick up where he left off last year. Julien is a wild card. If he continues to hit the ball hard and gets off to a torrid start in St. Paul, he could push for DH at bats against right handed pitchers with a few starts at second base as well. Both Lewis and Julien will need to prove they are ready to get a roster position, but they have some unique talents that are being watched by management.

Marco Raya is your 4th best prospect?

15 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

 Lee has 8 PAs at AA.  Things would have to go horribly wrong with the twins for him to see any time at the ML level. 

 

Things have to go horribly wrong for your 22 year old top prospect and top 40 overall prospect for him to see the majors this year? Around 30 plus guys played in the majors last year at some point being his age or younger but THE TOP Twins prospect can't do it? All you need is tweaked hammy from Miranda or Farmer to stuff a minor injury.

Now if he isn't tearing up the minors to begin the season or shortly after the beginning of the season this really isn't a discussion, but then again maybe he isn't the prospect that we think he is. The Twins have one guy in the infield that can't/shouldn't get pushed to the side if they aren't playing well and Lee is tearing it up. (Correa)

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Things have to go horribly wrong for your 22 year old top prospect and top 40 overall prospect for him to see the majors this year? Around 30 plus guys played in the majors last year at some point being his age or younger but THE TOP Twins prospect can't do it? All you need is tweaked hammy from Miranda or Farmer to stuff a minor injury.

Now if he isn't tearing up the minors to begin the season or shortly after the beginning of the season this really isn't a discussion, but then again maybe he isn't the prospect that we think he is. The Twins have one guy in the infield that can't/shouldn't get pushed to the side if they aren't playing well and Lee is tearing it up. (Correa)

I am all for building a team with prospects but you have two potential places (2B/3B) for him to play.  Teams that are contending don't replace a player like Polanco with a guy that literally has yet to prove anything above A ball.  He is not coming up to play 1st.  That leaves Miranda who so far has proven to be an impactful MLB player.    You don't replace him either unless he has a significant sophomore slump.   Then, add that both Lewis and Julien are both well ahead of him in terms of proving they are ready.  It would take a couple injuries to the above players or Miranda regressing badly and one of Correa or Polanco going down which would be "things going horribly wrong".

For Lee my question is where will he play if he makes his debut.  I believe this will be dictated on health.  I only believe he will get called up under one of two situations.  First, injuries and that will most likely decide where he plays.  With SS locked up, he will most likely play either 3rd or 2nd when there are injuries.  I do not think he will get called up to be a bench player though.  The other way he gets called up is he just tears up AA and AAA and forces his way.  This will only be if regulars struggle though, again he will not ride bench and be part time guy. 

Lewis, I have similar question, where will he play defense.  I think he will be given a chance quickly, unless rehab games do not go well.  However same thing with Lee, who does he take over for?  I think injuries and performance will decide this, but assuming everyone healthy and no major struggles who gets the move to bench roll? 

E-Rod, as I am sure he will start being called, just want to know how does he bounce back from the big injury and missing so much time.  He was looking like a guy that was going to move quickly last year.  If he can come out the gate and repeat, will he be second half call up after injuries or trades of OF depth?  I do not think Twins will feel they need to push him, but if he similar to Lee tries to force moves, and Twins need more pen guys do we trade some of our many OF guys and bring him up? 

Raya just can he pitch a full year.  Until he shows he can pitch a full year I will not be big on him.

Julien, just when does he make his debut.  He will at some point, and will he slot into 1b, even out of camp?  With reports AK is behind rehab, do we break with Julien as main 1b?  I doubt we do, but if he forces his way on I think that is main path for him. 

Lewis is the only one who has enough experience to come up and sit on the bench at all. He'll arrive as soon as he's ready and fill a utility role, playing where ever he can get an AB.  The rest are young and need to play every day, so they are only coming up for a long term injury or trade situation. And Raya is waaay too young to even be discussing AAA.