Twins Will Win the Division (An Overly Optimistic Post)

[WhenWillWeBeatNY]

The Twins finished 78-84, 3rd in the division and 14 games back of Cleveland. This year however I believe enough has changed for the Twins to win the division and get past the Guardians and White Sox. Now I'm way to optimistic of a Twins fan and usually come up disappointed but as always "this year is different." Below is a list of 5 reasons of why this team is a winning one. 

DIFFERENT TEAM

The first and biggest reason is this team is a lot different from last season. We picked up Joey Gallo who I am very skeptical of but also understand the value he can provide if he can be even a glimpse of what he used to be. We added Christian Vasquez who should anchor most of the games behind the plate. Kyle Farmer was the first acquisition of the off-season and initially looked like a sorry answer to losing Carlos Correa. However this move has turned into a trade for a solid utility player. Michael A. Taylor was another trade that didn't require much but is an upgrade to the defense and a right handed bat to platoon against lefties. Finally we acquired Pablo Lopez to sure up a rotation and potentially make it the best Twins rotation in years. 

DEPTH

The next reason is the depth this Twins lineup has. Last year the injury bug never stopped and got worse as the season went on. The addition of Farmer, Gallo, and Taylor provides solid option when players especially Buxton get hurt. With these guys it should ensure we don't have any situations like last season getting stuck with guys like Gilberto Celetino, Sandy Leon, Caleb Hamilton, Jermaine Palacios, Tim Beckham, Mark Contreas, etc. getting playtime despite not performing. 

ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION

Keeping on the topic of bad players. The Twins should get more wins this season based off of addition by subtraction specifically in the pitching department. Guys like Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Josh Winder, Emilio Pagan, Cole Sands. All of these guys lost games for the Twins. Guys like Winder and Sands are still on the team but should hopefully stay down in AAA. Pagan will sadly probably make the team but at least have a shorter leash before the Twins let him blow up this bullpen. Anyway, Dylan Buddy while he did win 8 games for us still lost 8 as well and didn't go deep into games costing our bullpen. Chris Archer lost 8 games as well and only won 2. Josh Winder lost 6 although I really like him I just think he needs more time to get healthy and develop. Pagan lost 6 games as well and half of those were the heart wrenching ones against Cleveland. Cole Sands didn't pitch a lot but he still lost 3 games for the Twins. Now I know wins and losses aren't always a good stat to describe pitchers but I think everyone can agree these pitchers hurt the Twins way more than helping them. Thankfully the way the roster is shaping out this year with the starting 5 basically already a lock we don't have to sign this bargain bin starting pitchers. Made coming back from injury whether he starts or pitches from the bullpen will be a big help too. This leads me into the next reason.

GETTING HEALTHY

The Twins struggled with injuries all year last and it was hard to watch especially after the Twins were projected to win the division. I saw somewhere that Twins players missed a total of 1,410 days due to injury. That was the most in the MLB by about 250 days. Thankfully going into 2023 spring training guys are finally getting healthy. I believe this year will be different for a few reasons. With last year being such a horrible year for injuries it will now be high on the Twins radar. We are already seeing this with the Twins firing the old trainer. Guys like Kenta Maeda, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers, Jorge Alcala, and Tyler Mahle who missed a lot of time last year should be able to positively impact this team. Buxton as always is a huge question mark but if he can stay healthy he has true MVP potential.

POTENTIAL

Now I definitely have some hard Twins bias and way too much optimism but I think this Twins team is criminally underrated. Joey Gallo has the potential to  get back to his Ranger days hitting 40 homers a season while hitting 450 foot bombs. Guys like Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff have dealt with injuries early on in their career and we still haven't seen what they can do with a full season. Guys like Jose Miranda and Nick Gordon broke out and showed they belong on this team. The biggest potential however is the starting rotation. Joe Ryan has been a star but I think he still has room to grow. The 6' 7 giant Bailey Ober also looks to improve after his rookie year. Tyler Mahle fought shoulder issues and we haven't even been close to seeing the value we thought we were getting when we traded for him. Sonny Gray has been pretty solid and looks to continue his success hopefully with less injuries. Finally newest Twin Pablo Lopez is still only 27 and some tweaks to his pitch selection and change of scenery could help him be even more successful than he was in Miami. Now a stronger and healthier rotation should help the bullpen as well. The Twins bullpen pitched a total of 654 innings in 2022. That's the fourth most in the MLB. Compare that to the 2022 World Series Champions, the Astros bullpen threw 159 less innings. If Rocco actually manages well and lets the starting rotation got longer we should not have to watch as many bullpen meltdowns in 2023. 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Nice article. I too am an optimist about the 2023 Twins team.

[solomon1930]

23 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Nice article. I too am an optimist about the 2023 Twins team.

I was disappointed to lose Arraez and didn't want us to bring Correa back but I'm coming around.

 

[JD-TWINS]

32 minutes ago, solomon1930 said:

I was disappointed to lose Arraez and didn't want us to bring Correa back but I'm coming around.

 

Same & same!

We’re a FA reliever away from very solid club!!

[JD-TWINS]

If we could move Maeda into Pen for a 2-3 inning bridge guy from middle of the 6th through the 8th & add a FA reliever like Fulmer or Chafin we’d be set!

27 blown saves last year and if we can get that number down to 12 blown saves……..that’s 93 Wins!!

We should have ample depth to compete through the year!!

[sun]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

If we could move Maeda into Pen for a 2-3 inning 

Unfortunately Maeda's contract doesn't work that way. It includes performance bonuses for innings and games started. While being sent to the BP could happen due to his surgery, it would be a big demotion which would probably sour him on re-signing with the Twins in the future. His pitching may be fine this year if given a chance to be a starter. Let's be patient enough to see how he pitches first. 

Maeda's contract details:

 https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/kenta-maeda-18451/

[Nine of twelve]

6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

27 blown saves last year and if we can get that number down to 12 blown saves……..that’s 93 Wins!!

Not all blown saves are losses.

[JD-TWINS]

23 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Not all blown saves are losses.

That’s a good point!

I was feeling optimistic.

I would say though that without Joe Smith, Duffey, & Pagan being core members of our Pen, we still have the opportunity to win 15 more games due to Pen improvements. I get the guys there now aren’t perfect but more reliable on average.

What we don’t pick up from the Pen, we can gain from a deeper starting group of arms & should handle any injuries with a clear “next man up” option.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, sun said:

Unfortunately Maeda's contract doesn't work that way. It includes performance bonuses for innings and games started. While being sent to the BP could happen due to his surgery, it would be a big demotion which would probably sour him on re-signing with the Twins in the future. His pitching may be fine this year if given a chance to be a starter. Let's be patient enough to see how he pitches first. 

Maeda's contract details:

 https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/kenta-maeda-18451/

I was made aware of this contract situation about 6 weeks ago & I understand the business is business approach from FO. However, if a guy’s coming off major arm surgery & was paid to re-hab all of last year and then other guys are acquired……..,it seems to me to be reasonable to start the guy out in the Pen, or with shorter inning outings. If he looks effective & the Pen is our best option for Wins due to a lack of stamina, there has to be some reality check.

Maybe, if this approach is considered, they offer him a bonus to make this move & keep everybody happy & on same page. Probably not very likely.

If Ober starting & Maeda relieving a couple times per week helps the Club I think the Professional Baseball people need to figure out how to make it happen.

[NotAboutWinning]

I'm optimistic because the FO has responded to a year with unheard of injury with a level of unheard of depth.

[weitz41]

I agree with your assessment. A lot has changed since Oct 22. SO much more quality depth. St Paul is going to be our top 10  prospect team with no place for them to play in MLB without an injury. I expect a lot more innings from the starters and a BP piece or two after spring training opens and Paddack and Canterino are put on the 60 day IL.

I think they have a good shot at the division. My guess in 87 wins

[CoasterProductions]

Our bullpen is solid as it is right now. All we need to do is sign Chafin, Knebel, and Fulmer. Then we got a great team and a possibly better pen then division rivals in Cleveland and Chicago.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 hours ago, solomon1930 said:

I was disappointed to lose Arraez and didn't want us to bring Correa back but I'm coming around.

 

I understand the sadness in losing Arraez. I'll really miss that guy. I assume your initial objection to Correa was the cost, and I understand that too. But I am glad you are coming around. Just try to appreciate a 28 year old Correa for his unique baseball skills and his encouragement of his teammates and his love for his family and for  Minnesota. So many of Correa's Minnesota teammates, the FO and the manager and coaching staff and especially Buck, have said so many good things publicly about Carlos, that they must have some validity. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I was made aware of this contract situation about 6 weeks ago & I understand the business is business approach from FO. However, if a guy’s coming off major arm surgery & was paid to re-hab all of last year and then other guys are acquired……..,it seems to me to be reasonable to start the guy out in the Pen, or with shorter inning outings. If he looks effective & the Pen is our best option for Wins due to a lack of stamina, there has to be some reality check.

Maybe, if this approach is considered, they offer him a bonus to make this move & keep everybody happy & on same page. Probably not very likely.

If Ober starting & Maeda relieving a couple times per week helps the Club I think the Professional Baseball people need to figure out how to make it happen.

It's a real bad look for an org to put somebody with that kind of contract into the pen without giving him a chance to start. Pitchers get TJ all the time now and aren't automatically relegated to the pen. They're almost always just put right back into the rotation. It's not even about re-signing Maeda, but the perception they'd get with future FAs around the league. Those types of contracts aren't super common, but you'd struggle to sign another guy to something with inning or start incentives if you show you'll just throw them in the pen and cost them literally millions of dollars.

It would be interesting if they approached him about restructuring his deal, though. Doesn't sound like they have any plan to, but it should certainly be an option if they feel they have enough rotation depth elsewhere.

Ober is a really tough guy to figure out a plan for. He's done nothing at all to make anyone believe he can throw a full season's load of starters innings. He's a far bigger injury risk than Maeda is, in my opinion. Is basically established that much more than 100 innings just won't happen. He'd be the guy I'd piggyback off Maeda early. Or just be a general long arm in the pen. Or put him in AAA and cross my fingers he doesn't get hurt before he's needed in the bigs.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I feel bad for those individuals that continue to be pessimistic about the Twins chances in 2023.

- The roster is, AT WORST, a push compared to last year's roster.  By default, improved health will greatly improve this team.
- With all of the injuries last year, they were still in contention until September.
- The roster floor is higher.
- Correa is now an asset, not a rental.
- We have added a quality SP, C, and OF depth/flexibility really only losing Arrea. (Urshela's loss is debatable).
- The AL Central is still pretty weak.  

[mnfireman]

The Twins were in 1st place as late as September 4 when the injuries finally put the finishing touches on the season, 11-22 record after Sept 1, a .333 winning pct. that would be 54-108 over a full season. This years team is definitely better than that, as was last years. At the same time, Cleveland got unbelievably hot, finishing 24-10, a .706 winning pct. that would be 114-48 over a full season, Cleveland is not that good.

I believe that the injuries have to level off compared to last year and this team will be competitive, as I feel somewhere between 88 & 92 wins will win the division again. 

As far as who takes his place as the lead-off hitter, Philadelphia made it to WS with Kyle Schwarber, let's put Gallo there (only half kidding actually)'

[Squirrel]

At this time of year and through the beginning month of the season, I always take the pov ... anything is possible. (Probable is a different discussion, but possible is hopeful.) But ... I also still take the stance ... hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Still ... at this point in time ... anything is possible. :)

[Beast]

I’m feeling pretty good about this team as well.  As it did last year,  it’ll all come down to injuries.

If all goes well, we could have 5 or 6 quality starters, all with ERAs below 4.  There’s no big stopper there, but about as solid a rotation top to bottom as you’ll find.

The bullpen could be lights out if Jax takes another step and Lopez returns to form.  Maybe Ober/Winder end up there as well, further solidifying.

Defensively, there’s not a better team up the middle (Vasquez, Correa, Buxton).  Gallo and Kepler make the best corner outfield tandem in the MLB.    Polanco is good enough at 2nd.  The only question mark is Miranda at 3rd, and we have Farmer to provide a high quality fill in.

Offensively, Gallo could rebound and hit for a ton of power.  Kepler could benefit from the shift and improve.  Buxton could play 120 games with an .850-.900 OPS.  Polanco could stay healthy and return to an .800+ OPS.  Kirilloff’s wrist could turn out fine and he returns to being an absolute monster.  Correa will likely continue to mash.  This could be a very, very good lineup.

None of these things are that outlandish.  There’s just so many things that need to break favorably.  Some of them are bound to happen, which makes us a better team.  I have almost no doubt we’ll win more games than last year.

I will say, if we break off another losing season, Baldelli will certainly be fired.  I’m less confident Falvine will be - but should be.  It feels like a make or break season.

[Unwinder]

1 hour ago, weitz41 said:

I agree with your assessment. A lot has changed since Oct 22. SO much more quality depth. St Paul is going to be our top 10  prospect team with no place for them to play in MLB without an injury.

Oh my gosh, I hadn't even thought about how much fun Saints baseball is going to be this year.

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I feel bad for those individuals that continue to be pessimistic about the Twins chances in 2023.

- The roster is, AT WORST, a push compared to last year's roster.  By default, improved health will greatly improve this team.
- With all of the injuries last year, they were still in contention until September.
- The roster floor is higher.
- Correa is now an asset, not a rental.
- We have added a quality SP, C, and OF depth/flexibility really only losing Arrea. (Urshela's loss is debatable).
- The AL Central is still pretty weak.  

The Twins pitching staff on paper is MUCH stronger than it was a year ago and it's not even close.  That's in both the staff and in the pen.  I don't even know how anyone can even think it's a push with how much it should be improved.

[WhenWillWeBeatNY]

17 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

The Twins pitching staff on paper is MUCH stronger than it was a year ago and it's not even close.  That's in both the staff and in the pen.  I don't even know how anyone can even think it's a push with how much it should be improved.

I think potentially we could have one of the deepest rotations in the MLB. The issue is to truly get to, and go far in the playoffs we need two guys to step up and be ace or all-star type pitchers that's where my concern lies. Realistically our whole rotation should have ERA's under 4.00. But if we can get 2 guys under 2.50, another under 3.00, and the last two under 3.50. That should be enough to easily lead the Twins to a division title and a deep run in the playoffs. 

[Karbo]

15 hours ago, WhenWillWeBeatNY said:

If Rocco actually manages well and lets the starting rotation got longer we should not have to watch as many bullpen meltdowns in 2023.

That is a big if, don't you think?

[Brad.dahlen]

I think the Twins will win the central by 5+ games. I'll come back here in October.... 

[SanoMustGo]

If the young guys improve some, and there is even league avg health, this is a good team, possibly really good. Count me in as very optimistic.  I would like to see one more quality reliever.  Maybe he is already on the 40 man.  We'll see.   Ohh, and sign Sano to a MINOR LEAGUE contract.

[Parfigliano]

I think they have a good shot at the division because I dont see how they can be as injury plagued as last year.

[IndianaTwin]

Twins Will Win the Division (An Overly Optimistic Post)

 

FTFY. 

I don't think it's "overly" optimistic at all to say the Twins will win the division. I'm going through Vegas on vacation a week from Sunday. Will I stop and put down some money on the Twins? No, but that has more to do with the fact that I don't bet than it does lack of optimism. For the reasons many have outlined above, I'm pretty hopeful for the season.

And besides, in my experience, being an optimist is a way more fun way to live. 

[August J Gloop]

12 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

That’s a good point!

I was feeling optimistic.

I would say though that without Joe Smith, Duffey, & Pagan being core members of our Pen, we still have the opportunity to win 15 more games due to Pen improvements. I get the guys there now aren’t perfect but more reliable on average.

What we don’t pick up from the Pen, we can gain from a deeper starting group of arms & should handle any injuries with a clear “next man up” option.

But every blown save against the Guardians last year lead to a loss. 

All the projection models I've seen have Twins and Guards basically even. right at 83.xx wins. That means the division will likely come down to the head to head stuff.  My gut tells me the projections are quite simply wrong, though. Considering they have the Twins as having less of an offence than CLE (doubt it) but a better pitching staff (say what now?). 

All that to say that you aren't being overly optimistic. It's very likely they will do quite well in the division. And they actually have ability (and the motivation of Correa's contract) to keep going in at the deadline. Unlike Cleveland who is literally bumping their head on their payroll ceiling by adding Josh Bell. 

[JD-TWINS]

5 minutes ago, August J Gloop said:

But every blown save against the Guardians last year lead to a loss. 

All the projection models I've seen have Twins and Guards basically even. right at 83.xx wins. That means the division will likely come down to the head to head stuff.  My gut tells me the projections are quite simply wrong, though. Considering they have the Twins as having less of an offence than CLE (doubt it) but a better pitching staff (say what now?). 

All that to say that you aren't being overly optimistic. It's very likely they will do quite well in the division. And they actually have ability (and the motivation of Correa's contract) to keep going in at the deadline. Unlike Cleveland who is literally bumping their head on their payroll ceiling by adding Josh Bell. 

I went to the Guardian’s games, 3 of 5, at the end of June - in Cleveland…….that skewed my attitude relative to Blown Saves.

Agreed on payroll thoughts v. Division. Change up in schedule and playing less games in Division & playing all the other teams in the game should have an interesting affect on Team’s records!

Looking forward to it!

[Fatbat]

So far no one has mentioned the most optimistic guy that with carve out a huge role on the 2023 team and beyond.  Royce Lewis will not only be in the show but he will make this team special. Maeda will get his starts and be a solid#3.  Ober might just mature and stay healthy and we will have a top 5 SP rotation. Get ready for a most exciting season not just in Mpls but also across the river! 

[chpettit19]

7 hours ago, bap3141 said:

I agree. The poor fella is used to it. The Dodgers did that to him often. 

What the Dodgers did to him is different than what some people here are suggesting. People here are suggesting putting him in the pen to start the year. I think it'd be much harder for him to get out of the pen and into the rotation to reach his incentives that way.

The Dodgers gave him at least 20 starts in all 4 years of his time there. That's at least an extra $2 million a year (1 million for 15 starts, and 1 for 20 starts). They gave him at least 25 starts in 3 of his 4 years. That's an extra $1.5 million each of those years. They gave him 32 starts his first year. That's an extra $3 million (1.5 for 30 starts, and 1.5 for 32 starts).

They also gave him at least 120 innings all 4 years. That's an extra $1 million per year (250k for 90, 100, 110, and 120 innings). They gave him 130, 150, 170 innings in the other years which added an extra 250k, 750k, and 1.25 million in those years respectively. 

Putting him in the pen straight out of the gates would be way different as he wouldn't hit a single incentive (no reliever in baseball hit 90 innings last year). I'm sure he wasn't super happy with the Dodgers, but I'd think he'd be way more upset with the Twins if they just threw him in the pen like has been suggested.