Time to move Buxton out of CF?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I have seen some loose data in the past that shows CF to be at a greater injury risk than RF and somewhat substantially higher risk than LF.

The Twins currently have a dependable glove in Kepler that could man CF.

Why has there been no discussion of moving Buxton to to one of the corner outfield spots in a greater effort to keep him healthy?

[Rosterman]

Well, maybe in a season or two, when the Twins see where Lewis or Martin will play. They would weaken their outfield at the moment, if Buxton moves left or tigh, or worse yet to DH status. He was signed to be the centerfielder for many years to come, like Mauer was signed to be the catcher, not the first baseman.

 

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I have seen some loose data in the past that shows CF to be at a greater injury risk than RF and somewhat substantially higher risk than LF.

The Twins currently have a dependable glove in Kepler that could man CF.

Why has there been no discussion of moving Buxton to to one of the corner outfield spots in a greater effort to keep him healthy?

Was there reasoning given on why players would be at higher risk in CF than the corners?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

29 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Was there reasoning given on why players would be at higher risk in CF than the corners?

Not that I can find directly.  Like I said, the data is loose.  Articles like this:
https://www.onlinegambling.ca/content-hub/mlb-injuries.php

This one based on salary from Forbes:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2015/10/16/infographic-breaks-down-where-700-million-in-baseball-injuries-are-at/?sh=426b50e411ce

I do not believe there is any concrete data out there, but we could theorize.  I would guess things like the CF is going full sprint more often, covering more ground, at a higher risk for collision injuries and muscle injuries.  Also the CF tends to be more athletic, ultimately putting themselves in higher risk situations.  

Just my guess...

[Fire Dan Gladden]

50 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Well, maybe in a season or two, when the Twins see where Lewis or Martin will play. They would weaken their outfield at the moment, if Buxton moves left or tigh, or worse yet to DH status. He was signed to be the centerfielder for many years to come, like Mauer was signed to be the catcher, not the first baseman.

 

No argument on the contract reasoning. but he would also be a defensive difference maker in RF  I would bet the Twins would move Buxton in a heartbeat if they knew it would keep him healthy all year.  

[IndianaTwin]

3 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Not that I can find directly.  Like I said, the data is loose.  Articles like this:
https://www.onlinegambling.ca/content-hub/mlb-injuries.php

This one based on salary from Forbes:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2015/10/16/infographic-breaks-down-where-700-million-in-baseball-injuries-are-at/?sh=426b50e411ce

I do not believe there is any concrete data out there, but we could theorize.  I would guess things like the CF is going full sprint more often, covering more ground, at a higher risk for collision injuries and muscle injuries.  Also the CF tends to be more athletic, ultimately putting themselves in higher risk situations.  

Just my guess...

On the last one, if the idea is that the CF is more athletic and thus can run into the wall more frequently than the toadstool in left who can't get to the wall in time to run into it, why put the athletic guy in left, where he's got a wall behind him and a wall beside him to run into?

 

[IndianaTwin]

I think it was Bill James where I first read...

• Good speed, good arm = CF
• Good speed, bad arm = LF
• Bad speed, good arm = RF
• Bad speed, bad arm = 1B

There's exceptions, but I've generally found that an accurate take. 

Buxton equals the first. 

[Cris E]

A player can be coached to avoid crashing into the wall, or to do it safely, but player collisions are usually very bad.  I think part of the higher risk for CF is how many more players he might run into (LF, RF, SS, 2B) versus a corner where walls don't make surprising bad choices. 

 

EDIT: I think James was also the one who said you play as far up the defensive spectrum as you can to leave room below you for less gifted players to contribute. 

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Not that I can find directly.  Like I said, the data is loose.  Articles like this:
https://www.onlinegambling.ca/content-hub/mlb-injuries.php

This one based on salary from Forbes:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2015/10/16/infographic-breaks-down-where-700-million-in-baseball-injuries-are-at/?sh=426b50e411ce

I do not believe there is any concrete data out there, but we could theorize.  I would guess things like the CF is going full sprint more often, covering more ground, at a higher risk for collision injuries and muscle injuries.  Also the CF tends to be more athletic, ultimately putting themselves in higher risk situations.  

Just my guess...

It's certainly an interesting discussion. I know there's a lot of resources being put into injury research in general, but I'm not sure what the Twins are doing along these lines. 

I don't see anything in these types of articles that would lead me to believe CF is more dangerous than LF or RF. Certainly not enough to move a platinum glove CFer to a corner thinking that'd give us a significant increase in Buxton games. If it would I'd hope they'd do it, but his injuries don't tend to be things I think being in a corner would prevent anyways.

[Squirrel]

I think it's premature to have this discussion. You want your best defensive outfielder in that position, you move him, then who plays center? Yeah, I know, he was out for quite a bit last year, but I still think this.

[RpR]

55 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I think it's premature to have this discussion. You want your best defensive outfielder in that position, you move in, then who plays center? Yeah, I know, he was out for quite a bit last year, but I still think this.

I think it would be a foolish notion, how Twins suffered without Buxton in Center Field was made obvious this year.

[Nine of twelve]

5 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I think it was Bill James where I first read...

• Good speed, good arm = CF
• Good speed, bad arm = LF
• Bad speed, good arm = RF
• Bad speed, bad arm = 1B

There's exceptions, but I've generally found that an accurate take. 

Buxton equals the first. 

No hands = LF. The most important thing a left fielder contributes to the team is his performance at the plate.

And BTW Buck is elite speed, elite arm. So to answer the question asked in this thread's title: No.

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, Cris E said:

A player can be coached to avoid crashing into the wall, or to do it safely, but player collisions are usually very bad.  I think part of the higher risk for CF is how many more players he might run into (LF, RF, SS, 2B) versus a corner where walls don't make surprising bad choices. 

 

EDIT: I think James was also the one who said you play as far up the defensive spectrum as you can to leave room below you for less gifted players to contribute. 

Buxton doesnt run into moving players.  He runs into a stationary wall. Over and over again.  Lessens his ability to contribute over and over again.

[ashbury]

Wasn't Buxton's 2022 basically defined by the knee injury he suffered sliding into second base?  Moving him out of CF won't accomplish what people hope, and the cost of doing that is high in terms of the value he can deliver.

[EGFTShaw]

So only one or two Hamm's beers to get loose data to give it up versus respectable data which might take a 6-pack... LOL

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Agreed with others, shouldn’t move him until his speed deteriorated.

Also, having lesser alternatives to Buxton shouldn’t be a reason to move him. It should be a reason not to.

[notoriousgod71]

14 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

No argument on the contract reasoning. but he would also be a defensive difference maker in RF  I would bet the Twins would move Buxton in a heartbeat if they knew it would keep him healthy all year.  

But it wouldn't keep him healthy. He couldn't even stay healthy mostly DHing and getting every third day off.

[CRF]

7 hours ago, ashbury said:

Wasn't Buxton's 2022 basically defined by the knee injury he suffered sliding into second base?  Moving him out of CF won't accomplish what people hope, and the cost of doing that is high in terms of the value he can deliver.

This is 100% correct. He got hurt THIS season on that slide into 2nd base. Not running into a wall trying to make a catch. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

16 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I have seen some loose data in the past that shows CF to be at a greater injury risk than RF and somewhat substantially higher risk than LF.

The Twins currently have a dependable glove in Kepler that could man CF.

Why has there been no discussion of moving Buxton to to one of the corner outfield spots in a greater effort to keep him healthy?

I wonder if Buck can play catcher? (Just kidding).

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Buxton doesnt run into moving players.  He runs into a stationary wall. Over and over again.  Lessens his ability to contribute over and over again.

How about airbags on the walls that activate milliseconds before a player hits the wall? Or put so much padding on the OF walls, that running into the wall results in a gradual decrease in the player's speed as he is gently absorbed into the marsh mellow wall itself. Or how about eliminating the walls and having a long open field where the player could run for 750 feet and catch the balls or the balls could roll for 750 feet. Or a net, instead of a wall, which would absorb the player and allow the player to gradually slow down. Or a moat where the player can dive into the water after catching the ball.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just looking at the Kepler aspect of this, Max is resistant to playing CF for whatever reason. It's part of the reason (of many reasons) why I'm ready to move on from Kepler and hope he is traded. He'd be a much more valuable asset as a tweener that plays CF but he won't do it. Given the other flaws in his game, I'm done with him.

[Trov]

One of the big pushes I make against this is one, one of his biggest values is in his CF defense, it is so much better than anyone else, by taking him away from that means you have lowered his value.  Now, being his bat has become a plus value, years ago it was not, there may be some merit.  However, where I also push back is many of his injuries have not been just from playing CF.  This year his knee got injured on a slid.  Other years he missed time from running bases too.  He has missed time from foul ball into foot, or getting hit by pitches.  

If the majority of his injuries were from him playing the field, then again maybe there is merit, but when many is from hitting and running bases, no position change will reduce that.  So I say, why decrease his value for the very limited reduced risk to injury in his specific case?  Yes, he did miss some time in his career from crashing into walls, but he could just as likely do that in other outfield positions too. 

[weitz41]

I'm in the boat of it may be to soon to make that move. If one of Celestino, Lewis or Martin prove to be MLB quality CF offensively and defensively then the sooner the better in hopes of keeping Buxton healthy.

[rv78]

I've been shouting for a Kepler departure for 2 years now. Over-rated.

Buxtons last 2 injuries have been the slide into 2nd base AND getting HBP in the hand. Neither had anything to do with playing CF. Before I move him to LF or RF I trade him. I have yet to see having a part-time CFer equate into a WS ring.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks FDG for this article! CF is indeed a dangerous position, not only the number of injuries but also the seriousness of the injuries. Many of the injuries on the field is soft tissue problems but colision is the greatest danger. Like what has been said a good CFer is fast which means they produce situations of colision more often and there is more impact created. Because Buxton is who he is, a very fast & explosive player, he'll get hurt where ever you put him in the OF. Buxton is very gifted CFer, it'll be a waste to put him any where else, It's like making a gifted piano player to play the tuba.

Lewis is also a very fast & explosive player and coming off knee surgery, puts him in very high risk of reinjuring his knee by putting him in CF. Lewis is a very gifted player that he could play anywhere in the INF why place him CF? Why even think of putting him back out there? To me it is lunacy. Lewis getting hurt was a great loss for most of the season and even half of '23. Just think what that decision cost us & what postion it put us in?

[MABB1959]

Hopefully the new training staff can help prevent the preventable injuries with a better conditioning regimen and with a new staff be able to minimize the amount of time it takes to get a player back.  Something is definitely wrong with a medical staff that has some many on the IL with aches and pains and the amount of time it takes to get them back.  Baseball is not a hard-core physical sport.   The number of plays in CF and the amount of at plate appeareances seem so limited.   Maybe 5-10 plays in CF and 3-4 at bats.  Seems to me most injuries happen when not properly "warmed-up"  

[chpettit19]

38 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thanks FDG for this article! CF is indeed a dangerous position, not only the number of injuries but also the seriousness of the injuries. Many of the injuries on the field is soft tissue problems but colision is the greatest danger. Like what has been said a good CFer is fast which means they produce situations of colision more often and there is more impact created. Because Buxton is who he is, a very fast & explosive player, he'll get hurt where ever you put him in the OF. Buxton is very gifted CFer, it'll be a waste to put him any where else, It's like making a gifted piano player to play the tuba.

Lewis is also a very fast & explosive player and coming off knee surgery, puts him in very high risk of reinjuring his knee by putting him in CF. Lewis is a very gifted player that he could play anywhere in the INF why place him CF? Why even think of putting him back out there? To me it is lunacy. Lewis getting hurt was a great loss for most of the season and even half of '23. Just think what that decision cost us & what postion it put us in?

According to the data in the first article Fire linked to CF had 86 injuries. SS had 76. 3B had 85. I think this storyline of Lewis being so much more likely to be hurt by being in CF isn't very fact based. 

[Doctor Gast]

35 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

According to the data in the first article Fire linked to CF had 86 injuries. SS had 76. 3B had 85. I think this storyline of Lewis being so much more likely to be hurt by being in CF isn't very fact based. 

If you read my post, most other injuries are soft tissue (sprains, strains, pulled muscle, elbow, shoulder & knee problems). While explosive CFers like Buxton & Lewis, many times it's colision which injuries are more serious especially when Lewis had a serious knee surgery the year before. If there were more CFers like Buxton & Lewis those #s would be much higher. How long did it take for Lewis to collide into the wall? That's the odds for it to happen? You can't see it but I saw it before it happen. If you take away the colision factor, I agree CF is no different than any position.

I'm very curious why the catching position is so low because it's a very demanding position. Maybe it only counts soft tissue injuries. You can't always take some stats at face value. FDG states a very valid claim.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

If you read my post, most other injuries are soft tissue (sprains, strains, pulled muscle, elbow, shoulder & knee problems). While explosive CFers like Buxton & Lewis, many times it's colision which injuries are more serious especially when Lewis had a serious knee the year before. If there were more CFers like Buxton & Lewis those #s would be much higher

Except Buxton's injuries haven't been collision injuries. His knee and hip issues this year weren't collision issues. His hip the year before also wasn't a collision issue. Getting hit by a pitch or fouling one off himself aren't OF collision issues. 

You make it sound like most CFers are slow, plodding runners who have no chance to run into someone or the wall at high speed. That simply isn't true. And here's a chart that proves it. Buxton is at 29.1 ft/s, by the way. So he's not even at the elite end of that chart separating himself from the pack. He was the 25th fastest CFer in baseball this year.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1) Just to be clear, I am not definitively saying they need to move him from CF.  I agree with many of the posts in in that moving him from CF reduces his value.  That being said (similar to Mauer), the contract is sunk money, so his current "value" is somewhat irrelevant.

2) I think CF is a higher risk not because of the wall crashing, but because they are the general out there.  They are expected to catch everything and make the calls on tough outfield plays.  I think that inherently puts them at a higher risk.  Is the risk so much higher that they should move him?  That I do not know.

3) I am assuming Kepler will be here next year.  As much as the fans are down on him at the moment, he brings (at worst) overall average value for his position, with a reasonable expectation his offensive numbers will go up some next year.  There are bigger issues the Twins need to deal with for 2023.  I would tell Kepler that his value (and next contract) would rise if if he played CF more.  Make it work.

4) The Bill James quote was speaking in abstracts.  Remember Soul Patrol from the early 2000's.  Jones and Hunter covered about 90% of the outfield themselves, Cuddyer just had to stand there, look like a linebacker, and throw runners out.  Putting Buxton in RF (or even LF) with a quality defensive CF is a devastating defensive alignment.

 

To me, the interesting piece would be if a quality CF were to fall in their lap.  How would they proceed?