Players like Baldelli as a person but....

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 8/23/2022 at 3:57 AM, Mark G said:

Now, I say this mostly tongue in cheek, but the idea is that a team will use the analytics to gain the competitive advantage.  But if all teams are using it now, then the team you are trying to gain the advantage on is, at the same time, getting the advantage on you.  So how can it be considered an advantage?     

Using analytics to try to keep pace with your competitors sounds less sexy.

[SwainZag]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Before the year started, almost no one thought this team was a contender, even when healthy..... Now it's the manager that is the problem, not the talent or the injuries? At one point right before the trade deadline, someone here posted the twins would have the best record in the game with another manager. 

Rocco's teams have won the division twice, and are competitive this year. Last year they were bad. If I had to guess, those results are largely about talent, health, and luck, and partly about the manager. 

The signing of Correa put the blinders on so many people's perspectives.  It looked like a semi re-building season with a ton of youngsters that could have an outside shot at the playoffs.  Correa signs and it was "World Series or bust!"  Pitching was always going to be an issue.  The hot start helped fuel this, but losing almost every promising young player outside of Miranda hasn't helped.  Paddock, Ober, Winder, Sands, Alcala, Romero, Jeffers, Kiriloff, Larnach, Lewis all missing major time has been a huge boon on this season.  And before anyone chimes in with "everyone has injuries," that's a huge lot of players under the age of 27 to miss major time pretty much at the same time.  That's incredibly rough when you know the front office expected a few to step up and being contributors this season.

[RickOShea]

Who posted : At one point right before the trade deadline, someone here posted the twins would have the best record in the game with another manager.

Who posted this?  I've never seen this or heard this before.  These posts from someone, that person, etc. can be a lot of fodder for discussion, if validated.  Otherwise, it's just a non-credible posting, IMO.

 

[RJA]

4 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

But, what made him a master tactician? I'm curious because he platooned (something Baldelli does). Kelly switched up the lineup (Kent Hrbek batted 4th against RHP, and 7th against LHP, just like Arraez bats leadoff against RHP and usually 6th against LHP). Pitching-wise, he did what other managers did at that time. He used the starter as long as possible and then pieced together the game to the closer. Nothing creative about that at the time. And when the Twins had a great roster, they won (87, 88, 91, 92), and when he didn't have a great roster, they were really, really bad. Right now, Baldelli's managing a roster that isn't very good because of a ton of injuries. 

The Kelly Way was credited for a lot of things, including the successful years in the '00s under Gardenhire when the team was blessed with talent again. But if that was the way to do it, why are NO teams doing some of what he did anymore. 

Again, just trying to understand the distinctions. Would we say that in some cases, Joe Torre didn't get the most out of his teams, even if they won 100 games? Maybe they should have won 120 games a year... Torre was considered a poor manager with the Mets, Meh with Atlanta and St. Louis. 

Hey Seth, thanks for the extended comment.  I always learn stuff when I read your articles or comments.

I think you asked some sincere questions, so I am going to respond to them in the interest of an honest exhange of perspectives.

You ask what made Tom Kelly a great tactician.  The game as played 30-35 years ago was much different than the one being played today.  There were different rules (no three batter minimum for relief pitchers for example), and different strategies (limited shifts, a desire to make contact rather than striking out 200 times, more hit and run, more bunting, more base stealing, etc.), all of which means that a manager's job was much different.  But, what made Tom Kelly stand out was his ability, especially late in games, to get the matchups he wanted rather than what the opposing manager wanted.  For example, Kelly would pinch hit in the 7th inning knowing that the opposing manager was likely to bring in a certain reliever--say a lefty specialist--to face the pinch hitter.  Then in the 9th inning that pitcher would not be  available to face players that Kelly did not want facing that pitcher--say Hrbek or Bush.  He managed like it was a chess game, and was often several moves ahead of the opposition. And, he had a knack for making the "right" move more often than not. The game requried more strategy than it does today.  It was different.  Gladden, Hrbek, Bush, Blyleven and all the old players speak of this in interviews when talking about Tom Kelly.  I trust their judgement.

Why is nobody following suit these days if his style worked so well--because the game has changed, some for the better and some for the worse, and baseball like all sports is trendy.  Once some team has success with a certain style or approach--be it a west coast offense in football, or smaller lineups in the NBA, other teams follow suit.  The style in baseball now is to have starters pitch a limited number of innings, and hitters focus on launch angle (the three true outcomes approach).  That is a style that exists from the lowest minor league levels to the majors.  It is not a surprise that pitchers only last 5 or 6 innings when that is all that is expected of them in their minor league development.  It may also have to do with the increased velocities and the pressure it puts on arms.  Frankly, if the Twins today had two starters who could pitch 250 or more innings like Blyleven and Viola in 1987, I suspect the bullpen would be much better, if of course, they were allowed to stay in the game.

It is impossible to compare players or managers from different eras.  I am not sure Tom Kelly would be successful today.  And, I agree with you that managers win when they have talent and lose when they don't.  A great manager may get a few extra wins a year, but it is unlikely to make a huge difference over 162 games.  I will say, however, that the the 1987 starting rotation was Viola and Blyleven and pray for rain.  Straker?  Smithson?  Carlton?  That year was probably Kelly's best job of managing.  

Thanks for your detailed comments.  I love this site :).

 

[ashbury]

That's why the analytics boys and girls have an ex-player for a manager, to keep it real.

[Oldtimer]

3 hours ago, Emjay said:

Not sure what players would outwardly admit they don't like how Rocco manages.....but those that make negative comments about Rocco and his analytics on steroids have a point regarding pitching switches and especially batting order chaos. A lot of teams are yanking the starting pitcher after 5 or 6 innings becasue the data does show that teams will hit after facing a pitcher a couple of times. Unfortunately for the Twins in past months, the long relief and other bullpen guys were not good. So now the starting pitching and relief is good enough (accept for Pagan, he is a lost cause)  that leaves us with hitting and the batting order/s.  I have not missed a game this year;  I have season tickets and when I don't go to the game, I watch them. I'm not an MLB player, but I have heard from every single guy that does commentary (Hawkins, Perkins, Smalley, Morneau, etc) that players typically excel and relax when they know where they are in the batting order and in the field on a consistent basis. Analytics only go so far when you art talking about hitting and batting orders...there is such a thing as overthinking it and taking the human element out of the equation. Whatever your opinion may be, analytics are not cutting it for this Twins team and I don't think Rocco is the right guy for the job if he can't be less rigid about analytics.  The talent is above average on this team, and the season is blowing up before our eyes... and at some point, the responsibility is with the hitting coach and particularly, the manager. By the way, are we ready to admit that the Pagan and Paddack trade for Rogers was so bad? WTF

Well said. Right on.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Before the year started, this team was predicted not to contend by nearly everyone. 

Really?

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Really?

Nearly everyone may be slightly too strong, but they weren't exactly being predicted to win the world series. I think most people had them in the high 70s, low 80s, right around .500 mark from the surveys on TD, and most betting sites had them around 84 wins before the season started.

The Twins are currently on pace to win 83 games. That's just about right in line with what the majority of people thought they were going to do before the season started. They got off to a hot start and people got excited and expectations changed, but coming into the season I think 83 is pretty much performing exactly to expectations, and wouldn't call it underperforming at all.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Emjay said:

...A lot of teams are yanking the starting pitcher after 5 or 6 innings...

80% of starters in MLB go out to the mound for the 6th inning on average. The Twins only have 1/8 (Joe Ryan) 12.5%
50% of starters in MLB average at least 5.2 innings per start. The Twins are 0/8. 0.0%
27% of starters in MLB average 6.0 innings per start. The Twins are 0/8. 0.0%

The team just set an all time record for latest point in the season where no starter had 100+ innings. That's not a trend. It's a new record. The Twins rank #29th in MLB for total innings pitched by starters, just ahead of Tampa Bay, who frequently uses relief pitchers as "openers" rather than true starters.

Let's look at where the Twins starters with more than 80 innings and no relief appearances rank?
Ryan = #69 (34th percentile)
Gray = #89 (14th percentile)
Bundy = #94 (10th percentile)
Archer = #104 (dead last in MLB)

The Twins are not following the pattern of other teams. The Twins have carved a path of their own, taking a new philosophy to the game to the extreme. The front office and Baldelli's jobs should be on the line if the process fails, and it's badly failing not only in terms of starter value, but exposing a weak bullpen all season long.

 

[Squirrel]

39 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Really?

Yes.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Nearly everyone may be slightly too strong, but they weren't exactly being predicted to win the world series. I think most people had them in the high 70s, low 80s, right around .500 mark from the surveys on TD, and most betting sites had them around 84 wins before the season started.

The Twins are currently on pace to win 83 games. That's just about right in line with what the majority of people thought they were going to do before the season started. They got off to a hot start and people got excited and expectations changed, but coming into the season I think 83 is pretty much performing exactly to expectations, and wouldn't call it underperforming at all.

I will let the other poster speak for himself, but "nearly everyone" is way too strong. In the interests of getting along, however, I will also agree with you that it was only slightly too strong.  

In fact most Twins Daily writers had them contending. I suppose one of us could dig for individual posts in individual threads by individual members, to find something different. Maybe the other poster I replied to has a post in mind he would like to share.  

Yay!! Yay For Opening Day!! (Make Your Predictions)

 

[DocBauer]

I do believe analytics play a smart and important part in what the Twins do. I also believe there remains room for some old fashioned ball play and gut instinct and belief in your players. Not sure the Twins have found the right balance just yet.

Ryan is a rookie, Gray has missed some time, Ober has missed a bunch of time, basically every OF has been hurt. Now Mahle isn't quite right. Injuries have really hurt the club and that can't be denied. I read recently, I believe here at TD, that the Twins were in the top 5 of MLB in games missed. However you want to look at it, or spin it, injuries have been a factor.

I pegged the Twins at 88 wins this year with a shot at 92. And after the first few months, I looked pretty smart. I didn't like the inactivity in the BP or rotation, but felt pretty good about the team as a whole coming in, knowing they would still need a move or two at some point. They've done that!

But you can't win when you don't score runs and have a third of your lineup is bench and fill-in players. You can't score runs when you don't advance them or knock them in with your best players, Miranda excluded.

BTW, this team is one of the best in OB% and avoiding K's and chase rates, etc. They are also the best in MLB at knocking in runners from 3B with less than 2 outs. But they are also amongst the worst at advancing or knocking in runners from 2B with less than 2 outs. 

Where is the disconnect there???

Healthy, I like so much about this team and it's potential. I like the trade moves. I think they're set up well for 2023 with a couple additions, even though I haven't given up on 2020 just yet.

But the injuries are to the point I just don't know if they can recover to finish strong. And I am simply amazed how a team can have so much positive run production but just bottom out on a single KEY statistic.

But I do know 2022 has been a lot more fun than 2021.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I will let the other poster speak for himself, but "nearly everyone" is way too strong. In the interests of getting along, however, I will also agree with you that it was only slightly too strong.  

In fact most Twins Daily writers had them contending. I suppose one of us could dig for individual posts in individual threads by individual members, to find something different. Maybe the other poster I replied to has a post in mind he would like to share.  

Yay!! Yay For Opening Day!! (Make Your Predictions)

 

Outside TD I don’t think there were many who had us winning the division or even making the playoffs. I think most thought we’d be 500ish. Or maybe my own prediction tainted that

[teachercoach]

This isn't Rocco's philosophy, he is doing what he was hired to do by the front office.

They wanted someone who was going to be all in on analytics and follow them no matter what.

Otherwise Molitor would still be in charge.  He didn't always adhere to what the spreadsheet says.

The front office can be from Cleveland, but they didn't bring Tito Francona - he is the difference is this division.

[bean5302]

Regardless of whether or not Rocco Baldelli is the team's problem or if it's the coaching staff, the players not being healthy or anything else. The Twins weren't predicted to make the playoffs this year out of the gate by a lot of fans or sports writers, but when they were several games up and playing near .600 ball and 5 games up in the AL Central at the end of May, expectations changed for fans and writers. Do I think Jim Pohlad was expecting a losing season considering the $140MM, record setting, Twins payroll? Definitely not. The last time payroll ballooned and the Twins flopped, Bill Smith got his walking papers. I wouldn't think Falvey's seat is especially secure at this point, but it's not like this team is going to lose 90+ games.

Obviously, if the Twins make the playoffs all will likely be forgiven, definitely if the Twins make a playoff run. There's still time, but it obviously does not look great at 5.0 games back, tied with the seemingly drifting White Sox. Well Behind the Blue Jays, Rays, Mariners and now seeing a bit of a gap even against the Orioles. Actually, the Twins are closer to the division lead than the Wildcard at this point. Neither is out of the question.

That said, if the Twins do not make the playoffs and continue to slump through September, somebody will take the heat. Rocco Baldelli is the easy fall guy. That's the way it's long been in MLB. Managers, coaches and sometimes the front office take the blame because owners can't fire players. 

In regard to the fans calling for Baldelli's job, it's natural and absolutely to be expected, whether or not you like him or dislike him, agree with his (and the team's philosophy) or not. Fans are going to lash out in disappointment and frustration and the players, coaches, managers, general managers and owners are going to feel the heat. 

[Mark G]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I do believe analytics play a smart and important part in what the Twins do. I also believe there remains room for some old fashioned ball play and gut instinct and belief in your players. Not sure the Twins have found the right balance just yet.

Ryan is a rookie, Gray has missed some time, Ober has missed a bunch of time, basically every OF has been hurt. Now Mahle isn't quite right. Injuries have really hurt the club and that can't be denied. I read recently, I believe here at TD, that the Twins were in the top 5 of MLB in games missed. However you want to look at it, or spin it, injuries have been a factor.

I pegged the Twins at 88 wins this year with a shot at 92. And after the first few months, I looked pretty smart. I didn't like the inactivity in the BP or rotation, but felt pretty good about the team as a whole coming in, knowing they would still need a move or two at some point. They've done that!

But you can't win when you don't score runs and have a third of your lineup is bench and fill-in players. You can't score runs when you don't advance them or knock them in with your best players, Miranda excluded.

BTW, this team is one of the best in OB% and avoiding K's and chase rates, etc. They are also the best in MLB at knocking in runners from 3B with less than 2 outs. But they are also amongst the worst at advancing or knocking in runners from 2B with less than 2 outs. 

Where is the disconnect there???

Healthy, I like so much about this team and it's potential. I like the trade moves. I think they're set up well for 2023 with a couple additions, even though I haven't given up on 2020 just yet.

But the injuries are to the point I just don't know if they can recover to finish strong. And I am simply amazed how a team can have so much positive run production but just bottom out on a single KEY statistic.

But I do know 2022 has been a lot more fun than 2021.

"BTW, this team is one of the best in OB% and avoiding K's and chase rates, etc. They are also the best in MLB at knocking in runners from 3B with less than 2 outs. But they are also amongst the worst at advancing or knocking in runners from 2B with less than 2 outs."

We are #6 in the strike out category, which is good considering the game today, but I would suggest that is due to Arraez.  With 419 at bats and only 35 strike outs, if you took him out of the equation where would the rest of the team rank?  And the other points are well taken, but possibly misleading.  We are 4th in BB taken, and 5th in BA, so 4th in OBP is very logical and looks good.  But we are also 5th in HR, and were higher earlier in the year, so a lot of our run production has come from there.  We only have 9 sacrifice bunts all year, and are dead last in stolen bases with 26; again, all year.  And I would bet at least half our line up hasn't been asked to perform a hit and run this season.  If I am wrong, I will have my crow medium rare, but I have not seen one yet.  When you manufacture nothing and rely on the long ball as often as we do, or stringing hits together in an inning, we won't bring runners in from second like we do from third.  We will score overall, but not consistently.  As such we have scored 3 runs or less over 48% of our games this year, yet are 6th in total runs scored.  Maybe that is the disconnect.  

I like the team going into next year as well, especially with a healthy OF.  I do think if we lose the entire left side of our infield, we will not be as good, but hopefully someone will step up if that happens.  And hopefully we will straighten out the catching situation, but that is doable.  '23 just might be the year.  

[Jerr]

16 hours ago, Emjay said:

Not sure what players would outwardly admit they don't like how Rocco manages.....but those that make negative comments about Rocco and his analytics on steroids have a point regarding pitching switches and especially batting order chaos. A lot of teams are yanking the starting pitcher after 5 or 6 innings becasue the data does show that teams will hit after facing a pitcher a couple of times. Unfortunately for the Twins in past months, the long relief and other bullpen guys were not good. So now the starting pitching and relief is good enough (accept for Pagan, he is a lost cause)  that leaves us with hitting and the batting order/s.  I have not missed a game this year;  I have season tickets and when I don't go to the game, I watch them. I'm not an MLB player, but I have heard from every single guy that does commentary (Hawkins, Perkins, Smalley, Morneau, etc) that players typically excel and relax when they know where they are in the batting order and in the field on a consistent basis. Analytics only go so far when you art talking about hitting and batting orders...there is such a thing as overthinking it and taking the human element out of the equation. Whatever your opinion may be, analytics are not cutting it for this Twins team and I don't think Rocco is the right guy for the job if he can't be less rigid about analytics.  The talent is above average on this team, and the season is blowing up before our eyes... and at some point, the responsibility is with the hitting coach and particularly, the manager. By the way, are we ready to admit that the Pagan and Paddack trade for Rogers was so bad? WTF

I'm with you until the last thing about the Rogers trade. I think that trade was fine.

[rv78]

FWIW the FO said they would be competitive this season. They have been. What they didn't say was that they would be contenders. Which also looks to be true by the way they play against the better teams. I totally agree, that players are more comfortable and perform better when they know where they are going to play and bat in the same order in the lineup consistantly. A lot of former players have said that. Why would that be different today? What I don't understand is the inability or lack of desire to change an approach when you are doing something the same way over and over again and it doesn't work. Yes, the FO and Rocco knew they had pitchers that didn't throw many innings previously and that they would have to limit their workload. When the "Plan" calls for pulling starters after the 2nd time through a lineup which happens by the 5th inning or sooner in almost every game, then you also should know that the bullpen was going to be used for at least 4 innings every night. That's as close to half of every game you play, and NOT having a stable full of quality arms to rely on in the bullpen is and was a huge mistake. Yes, injuries are part of the problem. Not having Alcala or Stashak or Coloumbe didn't help but they also didn't know that Duran and Jax would excel as relievers either. How good would the "Plan" have been if those 2 guys didn't step it up? Going back to - not wanting or being able to change your approach, can be seen all over this team from the Manager to the players. How many times do you have to fail at not scoring a runner from 2nd base with no outs before you start trying to move that guy to 3rd? Or how many times do you have to hit into the shift before you start trying to hit the ball to the opposite field or bunt to the open side of the infield? Some have commented about Kepler was doing that on occasion. Quite frankly I think he was just late on his swing and hit it to left field because of that, not because he was trying to. The inability to change a "Plan" game by game by the Manager loses games, and the inability to hit the ball to an open part of the field for a hit is a direct reflection of why batting averages for so many of the players is in the low .200's or less and not in the high .200's or more. It looks to me that the players are being taught to pull the ball as much as possible because that is where strength prevails and how home runs happen. Once in a blue moon a guy like Arraez or Miranda show up that use the whole field. Coincidently they are the teams best hitters, not the guys that are pull happy. 

[TopGunn#22]

I think bean pretty much hit the nail on the head.  I think Mark G. makes some very good comments too.  I think Rocco's rookie year as manager, with the team setting the all time MLB season HR record ruined him.  We have no ability to manufacture runs.  We are completely dependent on the long ball.  Our situational hitting is atrocious. 

After we signed Correa, I think many of us here on TD expected to contend this season and after the first month or so of the season with the White Sox floundering, felt we had a great shot at winning the division.  Alas, Francona is 10 times the skipper Rocco is.  And it shows in the standings today.  

[Linus]

I have no idea what Rocco is like behind the scenes. I do know he is doing exactly what the front office wants him to do. 

[chpettit19]

13 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I will let the other poster speak for himself, but "nearly everyone" is way too strong. In the interests of getting along, however, I will also agree with you that it was only slightly too strong.  

In fact most Twins Daily writers had them contending. I suppose one of us could dig for individual posts in individual threads by individual members, to find something different. Maybe the other poster I replied to has a post in mind he would like to share.  

Yay!! Yay For Opening Day!! (Make Your Predictions)

 

I won't speak for that other poster, but in response to the article you linked to about TD writers predictions here's the records they predicted:

92-70 (1)
91-71 (1)
90-72 (1) 
87-75 (1)
86-76 (2)
85-77 (3)
84-78 (1)
82-80 (1)
75-87 (2)

I don't know if I'd call 3 writers with 90+ wins "most Twins Daily writers had them contending." There were 8 writers between 82 and 87, which is right in line with the 84ish wins Vegas had them pegged at. They're on pace for 83. I just don't see how 10 of 13 writers being right around their current pace, or significantly lower, constitutes "most" had them contending. 12 of the writers had them in 2nd or 3rd place in the division. The polls of the general TD commenters also had the majority listing the Twins in the 80-89 win range. I don't know that any of this suggests the general TD population had them as any more serious contenders than they've been so far. Maybe I'm not remembering things correctly, but mid-80s certainly seems like the general consensus of where people had the Twins this year in wins. And they're on pace for mid-80s in wins. I don't see that as underperforming.

[Mike Sixel]

18 hours ago, RickOShea said:

Who posted : At one point right before the trade deadline, someone here posted the twins would have the best record in the game with another manager.

Who posted this?  I've never seen this or heard this before.  These posts from someone, that person, etc. can be a lot of fodder for discussion, if validated.  Otherwise, it's just a non-credible posting, IMO.

 

It was months ago. They claimed the Twins would have twenty more wins with another manager, which would have given them the best record at the time. 

[Mike Sixel]

16 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Really?

Really. Look at the polls here and preseason prediction sites. Almost no one had them winning the division. People seem to forget how awful they were last year. 

[GeorgiaBaller]

@Seth Stohs"To the second paragraph... it takes more than a great, great player. Mike Trout has hardly even been to the playoffs in his career. Jake Cave has the same number of postseason hits as Trout."   

Not that it matters now, but the player questions in my post was a comparative question.  Managers have to add value just like players do.  Who do you "peg" Rocco to was poll for comparison of a manager to the player side.  What player would you equate Rocco to in rating him as a manager?  Guess it wasn't worded well.  

As I said, Rocco has done about as well as anyone could keeping 70% level of talent team with a ridiculous number of constant injuries in the hunt.  I think talent wise the Twins really deserve to be a 2nd or 3rd place team.  The relentless injuries with this team are staggering and will probably discount and possibly sideline the careers of some players who could have helped.  Its been injury (and related: rest days) management that has plagued this team into a constantly  I think Rocco has been great in that sense. 

My biggest concerns are with in game situational management.  Not all teams can be the 2016 Royals--they set the tone for this pitcher plug and play we have today---but they had the staff and bullpen to do it.  We do not.  Twins cannot run a bullpen game starting the 3rd time thru the lineup.   I would like to see the #'s for starting pitchers who get extended to the 3rd time through vs bullpen in the 5th, 6th and 7th inning.  I am also a fan of situational small ball, so I love to see situational hitting(sacrifice fly balls to an opposite field single with a shortened swing) bunts, steals.  Instead of leaving men on base in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th inning with no outs---do something to try and move them around and manufacture runs. I have seen much more of this out of the Twins in the last few weeks---and it seems to have worked. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

@Seth Stohs"To the second paragraph... it takes more than a great, great player. Mike Trout has hardly even been to the playoffs in his career. Jake Cave has the same number of postseason hits as Trout."   

Not that it matters now, but the player questions in my post was a comparative question.  Managers have to add value just like players do.  Who do you "peg" Rocco to was poll for comparison of a manager to the player side.  What player would you equate Rocco to in rating him as a manager?  Guess it wasn't worded well.  

As I said, Rocco has done about as well as anyone could keeping 70% level of talent team with a ridiculous number of constant injuries in the hunt.  I think talent wise the Twins really deserve to be a 2nd or 3rd place team.  The relentless injuries with this team are staggering and will probably discount and possibly sideline the careers of some players who could have helped.  Its been injury (and related: rest days) management that has plagued this team into a constantly  I think Rocco has been great in that sense. 

My biggest concerns are with in game situational management.  Not all teams can be the 2016 Royals--they set the tone for this pitcher plug and play we have today---but they had the staff and bullpen to do it.  We do not.  Twins cannot run a bullpen game starting the 3rd time thru the lineup.   I would like to see the #'s for starting pitchers who get extended to the 3rd time through vs bullpen in the 5th, 6th and 7th inning.  I am also a fan of situational small ball, so I love to see situational hitting(sacrifice fly balls to an opposite field single with a shortened swing) bunts, steals.  Instead of leaving men on base in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th inning with no outs---do something to try and move them around and manufacture runs. I have seen much more of this out of the Twins in the last few weeks---and it seems to have worked. 

 

 

Those numbers have been posted over and over, and the bullpen is better than the kinds of starters this team has. Players can't just adjust their swing to hit an opposite field single. It just isn't that easy. Softly hit balls are MUCH more likely to be outs. If they could do that, they would. Not making an out is the prime ability of a hitter, if they could just adjust and not make outs, they would. Are you suggesting they sacrifice bunt and give away outs in the first half of the game? The stats are clear, that's a bad way to win. Very bad.

[KirbyDome89]

On 8/25/2022 at 3:59 PM, SwainZag said:

The signing of Correa put the blinders on so many people's perspectives.  It looked like a semi re-building season with a ton of youngsters that could have an outside shot at the playoffs.  Correa signs and it was "World Series or bust!"  Pitching was always going to be an issue.  The hot start helped fuel this, but losing almost every promising young player outside of Miranda hasn't helped.  Paddock, Ober, Winder, Sands, Alcala, Romero, Jeffers, Kiriloff, Larnach, Lewis all missing major time has been a huge boon on this season.  And before anyone chimes in with "everyone has injuries," that's a huge lot of players under the age of 27 to miss major time pretty much at the same time.  That's incredibly rough when you know the front office expected a few to step up and being contributors this season.

I think the start, more than anything, adjusted expectations, but yeah the Correa move and Petty trade both added fuel as each signaled a willingness to at least try to compete. 

Alcala? Sands? Jhon Romero the waiver claim? Really? This is where the injury stuff grows tiresome for me. 

[KirbyDome89]

On 8/25/2022 at 6:58 PM, chpettit19 said:

Nearly everyone may be slightly too strong, but they weren't exactly being predicted to win the world series. I think most people had them in the high 70s, low 80s, right around .500 mark from the surveys on TD, and most betting sites had them around 84 wins before the season started.

The Twins are currently on pace to win 83 games. That's just about right in line with what the majority of people thought they were going to do before the season started. They got off to a hot start and people got excited and expectations changed, but coming into the season I think 83 is pretty much performing exactly to expectations, and wouldn't call it underperforming at all.

Those expectations also included what was supposed to be a really good Chicago team. If I told you prior to the season that the Central would be home to two of the three worst teams in the AL, a Sox team struggling to get to .500, and a meh Cleveland squad would you have adjusted your win total? I would have. 

[GeorgiaBaller]

@Mike Sixel Everyone is entitled to their opinion--but success in this game is shaped by statistics and should not be completely dictated by them.  I think several of us are stating that baseball is not poker.  Statistics are measurements and they work almost definitively with static options---like you have in cards.  Baseball is not that way and while historical facts are tremendous guardrails, they can't dictate every decision.  Players go thru phases and are sometimes more locked-in than other times, physically perform better or worse  through some stretches and situationally, some players do fold in the clutch and some excel.  Its their individual makeup.  A manager who is with the team can feel and know those things watching players every day---and should make situational calls that sometimes go against the statistics.  Like I said before, Billy Bean would have a better WAR than most in the league at his GM position---but wile the Tampa Bays Rays have won WS's with a paltry payroll in a small market---have the A's?

Not all bunts or lower impact hits are sacrifices.  Sacrifices do have a place in the game and are valuable situationally.  A sacrifice to score a run should always be in the gameplan---without exception;  another place where knowledge and not just stats come into play.  There are so many weak arms in the outfield now in the majors, fly balls to the outfield with RISP are a strong play. And yes, bunts are useful situationally.  You will see many more bunts in the playoffs this year---like you have the last few years---- than the regular season.

Last---any ballplayer who has ever played or taken batting practice knows you do have different swings as a batter.  Some guys choke up on their bat, some guys close their stance, and some slow their swings just a little. Not all guys have good enough hands to do it, but I have seen Arraez, Urshela and Gordon all get hits in just the last few weeks by waiting a little longer, shortening their swing and swinging 3/4 to punch a ball into a short field.   Usually with 2 strikes.  Gary Sanchez even did it last week on a two strike hit to right field.

Baseball is a game of skill. There is some art and finesse involved by the player----AND the manager.  Don't make a beautiful sport into a computer game.

 

[GeorgiaBaller]

sorry---all the typo's make my last post almost un-readable!

 

[tony&rodney]

On 8/23/2022 at 11:01 AM, chpettit19 said:

If getting their butts kicked by the Dodgers caused the players to quit trying hard it isn't a Rocco problem it's a players problem. If they only have 2 competitors on the team (Arraez and Miranda according to you), and they're only competitors because Arraez wants a batting title and Miranda wants to stay in the bigs (I assume that's what you mean by "a future") the team is screwed anyways. It's an incredibly huge leap to suggest the players have just quit because they lost a couple games to the best team in baseball. Even if Correa doesn't care about winning with the Twins, he certainly cares about getting hundreds of millions of dollars after the year so I'd be awfully surprised if losing to the Dodgers made him just quit caring about performing well. 

As for the players as a whole not liking or agreeing with Rocco's strategy, all I've seen is the 1 Gray clip that people attribute to him being mad at Rocco and not at the way the game is played now or not himself for not performing better. Maybe that was him being mad at Rocco. But I've seen far more praise of Rocco from players like Buxton and Correa than I have seen of guys complaining. This mostly seems to be fan projection of their own dislike of modern baseball strategy than anything else. The Twins aren't doing anything extreme with the pitching or hitting strategies they employ.

Most times when a team scores 3+ runs in an inning they win the game. What's the easiest way to score 3+ runs in an inning? It's not with hit and runs and stolen bases, it's with big flies. And that's why teams pay for power and not stolen bases. The year they set the HR record they weren't lightyears ahead of the competition, they beat the Yankees by 1 homerun. The 4 highest single season HR totals for a team all came in 2019. The leader board for total team HRs in a season is riddled with modern teams because it's what the math says is the best way to win. 17 of the top 50 team HR totals ever have come in 2019 or 2021. And NYY and ATL are likely to join the top 50 this season as well. So 19 of 50 in 3 years. This is modern baseball strategy.

Starting pitcher inning totals have cratered leaguewide in recent years. This isn't just a Rocco or Twins thing, it's a baseball thing. In 2012 Verlander lead the league with 238.1 IP. There were 31 guys who threw at least 200 innings. In 2019 (used pre-2020 so can't blame it on shortened season usage changes) Verlander lead with 223 IP. There were 15 guys who threw 200+ innings (including Jose Berrios, because the Twins aren't doing anything extreme!). In 7 years the number of guys throwing 200 innings a season was cut in half. This is modern baseball strategy.

If the players on the Twins are quitting on the Twins because they don't like or agree with the strategies being used they may as well retire.

While I agree with most of what you said, it is worth noting that at least one year (likely 2-3) MLB used superballs which messed with all accepted norms. 2019 was an aberration that is Manfredball at its worst; everyone hits home runs. I'm a little curious how much of the change we see in baseball is due to an influx of the businessman replacing baseball people in strategy decisions such as lineups, when to pull pitchers, and so forth. I have no idea if that is a specific cause of change but the game today does seem to lack some basic fundamentals. I don't find analytics new at all but I do feel they seem to have become the tail that wags the dog.