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Baldelli needs to break up Bundy and Archer


All season long, there had been something nagging at the back of my head about seeing Bundy and then Archer - or vice versa - go back-to-back. Then John Bonnes finally pinned down the problem - they're the two most likely pitchers to have short starts.

Couple that with a crappy bullpen for most of the season and it's a continual recipe for disaster. You're burning a bunch of relievers to cover for two mediocre/bad pitchers and that makes it really hard to set up an effective bullpen.

These two should have been separated in the rotation months ago. The next off day should see Gray move up a day and wedge his starts between the two weakest links, giving the bullpen a little more breathing room in the process. Sonny has had plenty of rest this season, he can go on regular rest while everyone else shifts backward.

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I think that's a fair assessment and probably wouldn't be a bad move.

I also asked the Magic 8 Ball if Pagan was going to be sent down to St. Paul and Varland called up.  It responded with "Answer unclear, ask again later".  I'm so disappointed Magic 8 Ball at the moment 🙄.

More to follow later I guess... 

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Makes perfect sense to split them up  , it would also make  sense to have a quality left handed starter in rotation to give opponents a different look because all are righties and are pretty much the same , ( average )

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Or use Sands/Sanchez/Varland/literally anyone in a long relief role in tandem with at least 1 of them. My guess is they aren't doing that because of game situation and trusting all their 1 inning arms to succeed over Sands being able to hang 3 or 4 0s, but there's definitely ways around blowing through your pen so much. And the odds of Pagan hanging a single 0 can't be any better than Sands hanging 2 or 3.

I have no problem with pulling mediocre starters after 2 times through the order/5 innings/whatever, but you need to back that up with an adjustment in the makeup of your staff and how you utilize your pen if you're going to manage 3 or 4 of your starters that way. I think they manage their starters pretty reasonably even if I'd prefer an extra inning here or there from them. My problem is the makeup of the pen. Or at least their willingness to use someone like Sands for multiple innings.

1 inning guys: Lopez, Duran, Fulmer, Jax, Thielbar, Moran
Multi-inning guys: Sands, Sanchez
Starters: Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Archer

Split up Bundy and Archer while using Sands and Sanchez in combination with them to get through 7 or 8 innings and let your 1 inning guys get some rest to be able to come out throwing fire in their appearances.

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I would like to see, say, Smeltzder return (because he is a lefty) and go into the mlong relief role.

Why is Archer still starting. At best, use someone like Sands as an opener. Or even Jax.

Of course, Baldelli doesn't feel any starter can go thru an order the third time....so five innings is the norm. But then you better have a bullpen of relief arms that can pitch at least two innings consistently, as well as make back-to-back appearances in important roles.

The Twins are a contending club. They should not be poo-pooing an arm like Archer right now. He's either ready to pitch consistently and grow, or be replaced by someone who can.

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58 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

All season long, there had been something nagging at the back of my head about seeing Bundy and then Archer - or vice versa - go back-to-back. Then John Bonnes finally pinned down the problem - they're the two most likely pitchers to have short starts.

Couple that with a crappy bullpen for most of the season and it's a continual recipe for disaster. You're burning a bunch of relievers to cover for two mediocre/bad pitchers and that makes it really hard to set up an effective bullpen.

These two should have been separated in the rotation months ago. The next off day should see Gray move up a day and wedge his starts between the two weakest links, giving the bullpen a little more breathing room in the process. Sonny has had plenty of rest this season, he can go on regular rest while everyone else shifts backward.

Why didn't I think of that? It is so obvious, but I have not seen another writer nor poster suggest this. Really a good suggestion by John and Brock. Please see that Rocco, or someone who has Rocco's ear, gets this post.

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Will this really help?

Last 5 starts -

Bundy - 5, 4, 5,4, 5.1 = 23.1

Ryan - 5.1, 5, 5, 4.2, 5.2 = 25.2

Gray - 4.2, 5, 5, 6, 3.2 = 24.1

So in the last 5 starts the difference is 2 2/3 inning for Ryan and 1 inning for Gray compared to Bundy. So maybe throwing Mahle, Archer, Ryan, Bundy Gray would help a little?

The fact of the matter is that if your starter goes 5 you need 4 innings, and since most Twins starts are 5 innings, you need two set of 4 pitchers to pitch one inning every other game, and that is not sustainable.

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Or use Sands/Sanchez/Varland/literally anyone in a long relief role in tandem with at least 1 of them. My guess is they aren't doing that because of game situation and trusting all their 1 inning arms to succeed over Sands being able to hang 3 or 4 0s, but there's definitely ways around blowing through your pen so much. And the odds of Pagan hanging a single 0 can't be any better than Sands hanging 2 or 3.

I have no problem with pulling mediocre starters after 2 times through the order/5 innings/whatever, but you need to back that up with an adjustment in the makeup of your staff and how you utilize your pen if you're going to manage 3 or 4 of your starters that way. I think they manage their starters pretty reasonably even if I'd prefer an extra inning here or there from them. My problem is the makeup of the pen. Or at least their willingness to use someone like Sands for multiple innings.

1 inning guys: Lopez, Duran, Fulmer, Jax, Thielbar, Moran
Multi-inning guys: Sands, Sanchez
Starters: Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Archer

Split up Bundy and Archer while using Sands and Sanchez in combination with them to get through 7 or 8 innings and let your 1 inning guys get some rest to be able to come out throwing fire in their appearances.

Exactly. My problem with the management of this pitching staff is that they don't sacrifice ANYTHING on the front-end of the situation, which causes havoc on the back-end.

You can't have short starts AND a bunch of one-inning relievers AND a bad back-end of the bullpen AND your worst starters clustered AND...

That leads us to seeing Emilio Pagan in a high leverage situation. Or not having enough bullpen arms on any given night. Or another form of disaster.

The reality of the situation is that you can't have a "perfect" solution when you have an assload of imperfect pitchers on the roster. You need to choose where you're willing to sacrifice something - like letting a starter go through a third time or a dedicated piggyback with a long reliever - or you're replacing that "sacrifice" with something MUCH worse, like Emilio Pagan pitching in a tie game.

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43 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Exactly. My problem with the management of this pitching staff is that they don't sacrifice ANYTHING on the front-end of the situation, which causes havoc on the back-end.

You can't have short starts AND a bunch of one-inning relievers AND a bad back-end of the bullpen AND your worst starters clustered AND...

That leads us to seeing Emilio Pagan in a high leverage situation. Or not having enough bullpen arms on any given night. Or another form of disaster.

The reality of the situation is that you can't have a "perfect" solution when you have an assload of imperfect pitchers on the roster. You need to choose where you're willing to sacrifice something - like letting a starter go through a third time or a dedicated piggyback with a long reliever - or you're replacing that "sacrifice" with something MUCH worse, like Emilio Pagan pitching in a tie game.

We are 114 games into 162 schedule, do we think the twins are really going to change anything?

I will say it does seem like Rocco has tried to extend his starters a tiny bit and every time he does they give up a hit or run and he quickly pulls them.

I would love to see Pagan start Archer's next game or somebody that can go two innings, let Archer go his 4 and see what happens.

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1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't think there's a real difference in innings per start between Gray and Bundy.

There isn't a big difference in quantity but there is in quality. And Gray has been injured and taken it easy a bit. Bundy is more likely to have the catastrophic short start, which is troublesome if chased by an Archer short start.

Also, it's more likely Gray will exit with a lead while Bundy or Archer will not. Setting up a bullpen to use the best four one day and not the other two days - at least in early innings - allows more bullpen flexibility. If Bundy leaves in the fifth with a three run deficit, that's when you use Pagan. It's less likely Gray will exit under those circumstances.

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7 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

There isn't a big difference in quantity but there is in quality. And Gray has been injured and taken it easy a bit. Bundy is more likely to have the catastrophic short start, which is troublesome if chased by an Archer short start.

Also, it's more likely Gray will exit with a lead while Bundy or Archer will not. Setting up a bullpen to use the best four one day and not the other two days - at least in early innings - allows more bullpen flexibility. If Bundy leaves in the fifth with a three run deficit, that's when you use Pagan. It's less likely Gray will exit under those circumstances.

In Gray's last 9 starts he has give up 3 or more runs in 5 starts, the other 4 were 0 or 1.

He has 4 starts less than 5 innings, 1 of 6 innings, 1 of 7 innings, and 3 of 5 innings.  Not sure it is more than a coin flip how good Gray will be. I think as fans we want him to be better than he has been.

He did have a run of 5 of 6 starts (5/18-6/27) that were good or better.

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2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

All season long, there had been something nagging at the back of my head about seeing Bundy and then Archer - or vice versa - go back-to-back. Then John Bonnes finally pinned down the problem - they're the two most likely pitchers to have short starts.

Couple that with a crappy bullpen for most of the season and it's a continual recipe for disaster. You're burning a bunch of relievers to cover for two mediocre/bad pitchers and that makes it really hard to set up an effective bullpen.

These two should have been separated in the rotation months ago. The next off day should see Gray move up a day and wedge his starts between the two weakest links, giving the bullpen a little more breathing room in the process. Sonny has had plenty of rest this season, he can go on regular rest while everyone else shifts backward.

Yeah no. No pitcher on the Twins is allowed to go deep into games. Besides, Gray doesn't pitch as deep into games as Bundy does. They days where Gray was going 6 innings back in May are long gone as he's pitched more than 5.0 innings just 2x in the last 2-1/2 months.
 

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The Twins starters need to pitch at least 6 innings most of the time. Who cares if their numbers go down 3rd time through the order. If your bullpen is worn out they’re not going to be effective either. The 2022 Twins are living proof why consistently pulling starters after 4 or 5 does not work. I’d rather have a starter go 6, maybe give up a run or two 3rd time through, than wear out the bullpen to the point that they are even less effective than a starter 3rd time through. It’s makes zero sense. How many times have we seen a 1 or 2 run deficit turn into a 10 run blowout because the bullpen is overused. leave the starter in! Relying on your computer and spreadsheets to the point where common sense is over ruled is a problem that’s easily fixed. Allow your manager to think for himself.

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2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Makes perfect sense to split them up  , it would also make  sense to have a quality left handed starter in rotation to give opponents a different look because all are righties and are pretty much the same , ( average )

It has to be a quality lefthander though. Target Field is not kind to mediocre LHP.

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I would use Archer and Bundy to breakup Gray, Mahle and Ryan. Our duo of Duran and Lopez don't seem to be able to go back to back days. It's really more a pattern of giving our best relief pitchers a day off between appearances to better enable us to win 60% of the time. Or else don't use Lopez and Duran on the same days.

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3 hours ago, LVTwinsfan said:

How many times have we seen a 1 or 2 run deficit turn into a 10 run blowout because the bullpen is overused.

That would be 0.  The Twins have lost 2 games this year by 10 or more runs.  In the worst, July 17 against CWS, Archer gave up 4 in the 5th, and the Twins went on to lose 11-0.  3 days earlier, Gray gave up 6 runs in 3.2, and the Twins eventually lost 12-2.

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5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Exactly. My problem with the management of this pitching staff is that they don't sacrifice ANYTHING on the front-end of the situation, which causes havoc on the back-end.

You can't have short starts AND a bunch of one-inning relievers AND a bad back-end of the bullpen AND your worst starters clustered AND...

That leads us to seeing Emilio Pagan in a high leverage situation. Or not having enough bullpen arms on any given night. Or another form of disaster.

The reality of the situation is that you can't have a "perfect" solution when you have an assload of imperfect pitchers on the roster. You need to choose where you're willing to sacrifice something - like letting a starter go through a third time or a dedicated piggyback with a long reliever - or you're replacing that "sacrifice" with something MUCH worse, like Emilio Pagan pitching in a tie game.

This right here summarizes the problem perfectly.  It's fine to only let your starters go 5 a game...if you have multiple options to eat multiple innings in the bullpen.  It's fine to not have multiple options to eat multiple innings in the bullpen...if you have 7-8 guys you trust in 1 run games in the late innings.

You have to have one of those 3 things (starters who consistently pitch 7 innings, 3-4 guys who can handle 2-3 innings every 2nd or 3rd day while giving up 0-1 runs most of the time, or 7-8 set-up caliber guys); the Twins have none, which is why the pitching staff is in shambles.  If Falvine is going to continue on the current path with the starters, they better figure out which of the two bullpen options they're going to opt for, and they better have that answer before free agency starts in the fall/winter.

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4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

We are 114 games into 162 schedule, do we think the twins are really going to change anything?

I will say it does seem like Rocco has tried to extend his starters a tiny bit and every time he does they give up a hit or run and he quickly pulls them.

I would love to see Pagan start Archer's next game or somebody that can go two innings, let Archer go his 4 and see what happens.

I am also confused why the Twins don't try and use the opener strategy in order to squeeze an extra inning out of the primary pitcher.  If the primary starts his day against batter 4-6 in the lineup, you can let him go halfway through the order the third time, and he'll face batters 4-6, 5-7, or 6-8.  Seems a pretty easy way to get your primary pitcher on the day to face 21-24 batters instead of 18.

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8 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I am also confused why the Twins don't try and use the opener strategy in order to squeeze an extra inning out of the primary pitcher.  If the primary starts his day against batter 4-6 in the lineup, you can let him go halfway through the order the third time, and he'll face batters 4-6, 5-7, or 6-8.  Seems a pretty easy way to get your primary pitcher on the day to face 21-24 batters instead of 18.

Buy that man a beer.

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In Bundy's last start he had a 2 hit shutout in the 5th with only 65 pitches thrown & was removed. While our pitching staff isn't the most talented in the league the issue goes beyond who's out on the mound. Anyone Jose Berrios being removed in the playoffs in a similar situation. Poor management of the staff is just as big a problem, IMO.

 

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3 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

That would be 0.  The Twins have lost 2 games this year by 10 or more runs.  In the worst, July 17 against CWS, Archer gave up 4 in the 5th, and the Twins went on to lose 11-0.  3 days earlier, Gray gave up 6 runs in 3.2, and the Twins eventually lost 12-2.

Maybe I should have worded my post differently. 10 runs is not really important. Getting blown out in a game that was close before the going to the pen is my point. There have been plenty of games that were close until the bullpen took over. In a game against Toronto the Twins were ahead 1-0 after 5 innings, a game in which Gray gave up 1 hit, Toronto scored 9 in the last 4 innings and won 9-3. They lost 11-10 to Cleveland in a game the pen gave up 7 in the last 3 innings. Against Houston they never had the lead but the pen gave up 6 in the 6th, pretty much eliminating any chance to win. They lost 11-3. They blew  7-3 lead against the Yankees, losing 10-7. They gave up 6 runs in the 8th vs the Dodgers and lost 7-2. They lost 8-1 to Boston and the bullpen again gives up 6 in the 8th. Forgive my laziness but I just threw out 10 as an arbitrary number, because my point was the bullpen takes them out of games they could or should have won.

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8 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

In Gray's last 9 starts he has give up 3 or more runs in 5 starts, the other 4 were 0 or 1.

He has 4 starts less than 5 innings, 1 of 6 innings, 1 of 7 innings, and 3 of 5 innings.  Not sure it is more than a coin flip how good Gray will be. I think as fans we want him to be better than he has been.

He did have a run of 5 of 6 starts (5/18-6/27) that were good or better.

Compare those to Bundy, who I don’t think has gone more than five innings since the ASB (without checking, admittedly).

I don’t even care if they wedge Gray in there, it could just as easily be Ryan or Mahle. My point is to break up Bundy and Archer, Gray is just the easiest one to move to that slot. 

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16 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yeah no. No pitcher on the Twins is allowed to go deep into games. Besides, Gray doesn't pitch as deep into games as Bundy does. They days where Gray was going 6 innings back in May are long gone as he's pitched more than 5.0 innings just 2x in the last 2-1/2 months.
 

That didn't age well.

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15 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

  Seems a pretty easy way to get your primary pitcher on the day to face 21-24 batters instead of 18.

All the Twins starters minus Archer average right around 21/22 batters faced a game, maybe that has more to do with Rocco trying to get them to end an inning. Look at Gray last night he was right on his average of 22.

The issue with averaging 21/22 is that you have to be damn near perfect to pitch 6 innings. In a normal 5 innings that is the 15 guys you get out give up a four hits and a walk and you are at 20. Most of the time that gets you taken out after 5.

If in this scenario if you have a low pitch count and haven't given up a run, you may come out for the 6th, but you have to know you likely will be taken out if a runner gets on. If the batter after a guy gets on is left handed (since all the Twins starters are right handed) you gone for sure.

If you are watching the game and follow this logic, you will be right over 90% of the time on when Rocco's pulls the starter. Last night Gray was at 20 batters faced 80 some pitches, you knew he was coming out for the 7th because he he was at 20 batters faced and a right handed hitter due up then two lefties, The only way he finishes the 7th is being perfect, Rocco actually let him go one batter longer than expected but you knew after the second hit he was gone.

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