August Homestand Sets up Massive September for Twins

[Ted Schwerzler]

No longer leading the American League Central division, the Minnesota Twins are now faced with an uphill battle to get back into postseason contention. Ultimately, the deck may be stacked in their favor, but it’d require them to actually take advantage.

 

 

Returning home to face Kansas City, the Twins play 16 more games in August from the 15th on. Of those, 13 are at Target Field. Only three of those games, the set on the road against the Houston Astros, are against a team currently projected to be a postseason club. While Minnesota has played poorly for a handful of weeks now, that’s exactly the slate they should be looking to get right against.

Although August sets up favorably from a scheduling standpoint, it’s September where Rocco Baldelli has to be considering the greatest opportunity for his team to take back the division. Assuming the Twins can hold serve in the month ahead, they’ll be within striking distance heading into the final month of the regular season.

During September, Minnesota plays their chief competition a combined 17 times. Facing the Cleveland Guardians eight times, and the Chicago White Sox nine times (including a final three game series to end the season in October), it’s there that the division will be decided. 

You can certainly make the argument that Minnesota has done less with more all season. Sure, the lineup is lacking several key contributors at this point such as Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, and Kyle Garlick. Weeks or even months ago though, when the lineup was healthy, opportunities to expand the division lead were routinely missed. Now needing to regain their standing, they’ll have to do so on the basis of scheduling allowing them a way back in.

At the end of the day, if the Minnesota Twins can’t stack wins against the bottom of the division and pile up victories against lackluster competition at home, they don’t deserve to be in the postseason. This team certainly isn’t on the same tier as the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, but they also don’t need to be. The front office did everything they could at the trade deadline to swing big moves and bring in impactful help. It’s now on those within the clubhouse to hold up their end of the bargain. Making the Postseason allows a turning of the page with an opportunity to make noise. Failing to capitalize on a season set up so perfectly for them would be nothing short of a failure.

Right now it seems as though the Twins are trending in the wrong direction, and you’d be hard-pressed to argue otherwise. Carlos Correa wasn’t signed to a team expected to go out with a whimper, and acquiring an ace like Tyler Mahle wasn’t done with a belief there wasn’t an opportunity to compete. Baldelli’s club has the pieces necessary to win ballgames, but they now must show it in the box score.

Less with more has been a theme at times this year, and while there’s still time to get it right, the clock is ticking.

 

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[LonelyseatinMOA]

Guardians look strong, I understand if a significant portion of the fanbase has lost total faith after this embarrassing 5 game stretch. But for some reason, I hold out hope.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I so too, but I am the eternal optimist. I think it would help if the Twins would do a couple of things that I think are long overdue, think DFA Pagan and Beckham. That would at least make me think that they are trying to right the ship before this crucial stretch.  

[SanoMustGo]

Not sure how much better this team is than either KC or Texas at this point.  Just look at the results the last 71 games.

[RJA]

The Guardians have a history of being strong down the stretch.  Still, it is there for the taking if they play well.  I think it is 50-50.

[SanoMustGo]

13 minutes ago, RJA said:

The Guardians have a history of being strong down the stretch.  Still, it is there for the taking if they play well.  I think it is 50-50.

Injuries, poor play, and let's face it Terry Francona vs Rocco. All other things being equal, who would you want running the the team?  I would say it's more like 80-20.

[lake_guy]

During September, Minnesota plays their chief competition a combined 17 times. Facing the Cleveland Guardians eight times, and the Chicago White Sox nine times (including a final three game series to end the season in October), it’s there that the division will be decided. 

Agree with you in principle Ted but my hunch is these teams will play to about .500 when all is said and done.  It's the 22 games with KC, Detroit, Texas, Angels and crazily enough Boston series that I think will be the decisive factor.  They keep losing these games against out of contention teams it's all over.

[Aggies7]

Just saw that the World Series could run until November 5 this year. Could be really cold. Thankfully there’s zero chance it will be played in Minnesota 

[David Maro]

Its all about pitching and Cleveland and Chicago have it. The Twins would need to score 7 to 10 runs to beat them. They can't drive in a runner from 2nd with no outs. All they want to do is try to hit homeruns,not get the runner to third. Look at Buxton,homerun or strikeout. Is Correa really worth $35 million with his at bats. I can't see this team making the playoffs.

 

[RpR]

Well , the Twins now will face the Royals who just shut-out the Dodgers, we shall see.

[umterp23]

Kyle Garlick key contributor, not really.  the old adage of one game at a time.  Don't like to say it but can't win two in a row if you can't win the next (1st) one.  They need a strong 8-2, 9-1 week to get back into the mix.  When I look at the rotation, sadly I don't see that type of week with this staff.  Go Twins

[rv78]

Twins are 10-10 so far against Cleveland and Chicago. Even with the addition of Mahle, Fulmer and Lopez the chances of going more than .500 will be a stretch. Their playoff chances start tonight against KC. If they play Cle and Chi even up and go less than .500 to Hou, NYY, Bos and SF they better play their tails off against KC, Det, Ana and Tex. Not going to take long to see if they have any fight left in 'em.

[bean5302]

I agree the homestand is critical to the Twins' chances. While the Twins have a huge number of games coming up against the Guardians in September, it's not reasonable to expect a huge shift in the standings.

The start of September sees the Twins playing 15 of 18 of their games against teams with winning records, the first 7 all on the road against the Yankees and White Sox. That's not a stretch where you'd expect a team that's played well under .500 since late May to make a run.

If the Twins don't make up some ground this month, their odds are going to look pretty rough. As of right now, the Twins would have to pass 2 teams (Orioles and Rays) to make the 3rd Wildcard with the Blue Jays and Mariners also ahead. Those aren't good odds.

The White Sox have the weakest strength of schedule of the AL Central competitors for the remainder of the year.

Fangraphs, as it stands today: Guardians 47.3%, White Sox 28.1%, Twins 24.6% division winners.
Blue Jays 86.6%, Mariners 85.0%, Rays 51.9%, White Sox 19.0%, Red Sox 17.4%, Twins 15.5%, Guardians 15.0% for the 3 Wildcards.

At least Fangraphs expects the Orioles to tank with a meager 3.8% chance at the Wildcard.

[jkcarew]

“Baldelli’s club has the pieces necessary to win ballgames“

Not really. Not at a pace that is going to exceed that of CLE or CHI by a meaningful margin. They’ll probably need to win the head to head by a 1-3 game margin. Could happen, doesn’t feel likely.

All three have SERIOUS issues. Only one has Terry Francona calling the shots.

[jkcarew]

5 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I so too, but I am the eternal optimist.

This is already implied by your chosen handle. ?

[cHawk]

6 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

Just saw that the World Series could run until November 5 this year. Could be really cold. Thankfully there’s zero chance it will be played in Minnesota 

To be precise, there is 0.8% chance it will be played in Minnesota, as the Twins' current World Series odds are 0.8%.

[Karbo]

They need a long man or 2 in the pen to have a chance. Seems like we have 5 relievers that can be counted on or trusted in tight games. That needs to change ASAP.