Front Page: Revisiting Falvey and Levine Era Trades: Break in Case of World Series

[Nate Palmer]

In Part 3 of the look at Falvey and Levine Era trades we take a look at some emotionally charged trades from the summer of 2018. Looking back now, those trades may be exactly what the Twins needed to set themselves up to make a World Series-sized trade sometime soon.As we continue on with our series looking at the Derek Falvey and Thad Levine led front office and the trades they have made we will look not at a single one, but at a flurry of trades. That flurry came in the middle of the 2018 season when the Twins had a fire sale of veterans who were on expiring deals and stocked their farm system with prospects.

 

As a fan, it was a tough series of trades as we saw several fan favorite players leave Minnesota. At the time it seemed like a pair of infielders, Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar, were the ones most deeply missed. Let’s recap quickly those trades that happened mid-2018.

• Eduardo Escobar to Dbacks for Ernie De La Trinidad, Jhoan Duran, and Gabriel Maciel
• Ryan Pressly to Astros for Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcala
• Zack Duke to Mariners for Ryan Costello and Chase De Jong
• Lance Lynn to Yankees for Luis Rijo and Tyler Austin
• Brian Dozier to Dodgers for Luke Raley, Logan Forsythe, Devin Smeltzer
• Fernando Rodney to A’s for Dakota Chalmers
• Bobby Wilson to Cubs for Chris Giminez and PTBNL or cash

The majority of these trades are “wins” simply because these guys were free agents to be and there weren’t plans on the Twins part to re-sign them. One we could say the Twins should have kept around may have been Escobar. My hunch is that Escobar was ready to be a starter. With Miguel Sano here that probably wasn’t happening that offseason.

 

The Pressly trade is certainly up for debate. He certainly would have been nice to have around this past season. At the same time, as much of the conversation was centered on last week, it is hard to truly evaluate trades until these prospects get their chance to develop. That doesn’t erase the fact that before the Twins bullpen really took shape during the second half, Pressly was someone many of us were wishing was still around.

 

Some of the players acquired have already exited the Twins organization for one reason or another. Some as veterans that were simply not needed any longer, and others as prospects that were allowed to go elsewhere. Below is a graph with those remaining sorted by Fangraphs recent ranking of the Twins organization.

 

Download attachment: Screen Shot 2019-12-23 at 8.11.44 PM.png

 

There was a whole lot of talent that was brought in in a short amount of time during that 2018 season. Some of these players the Twins are hoping to develop into the waves of players that sustain winning in the Twins Cities. I also fully believe these trades were made to set the front office up to make more trades.

 

That becomes especially important now as the Twins have yet to fulfill their promise of impact pitching coming to help the 2020 Twins. These prospects make up one of the deepest group of prospects in MLB baseball and it is time to see which players can be used to acquire an arm to help next season's rotation.

 

So while as a fan it was hard to say good-bye to so many of our favorite players in 2018 it was the right baseball move. Now if the Twins want to get to a World Series it is time to move some of those prospects to get players who are ready to take them there now.

 

How do you feel about those 2018 trades after some time has passed?

 

Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook.

 

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[theBOMisthebomb]

These theoretical trades would be the proverbial 'other shoe to drop' that Twins fans are clamoring for this offseason. I, for one, am in see it to believe it mode so as to avoid massive disappointment. My question is when do the Twins stop building for the future and make a risky/aggressive/illogical/throw caution to the wind move for 2020?

[Linus]

Those trades are wins? With the exception of the Pressly trade which was / is an abomination those trades aren’t losses either but let’s take the Twins colored glasses off

[SomeGuy]

I liked our deadline moves in 2018 and still like them now.

[Mr. Brooks]

Those trades are wins? With the exception of the Pressly trade which was / is an abomination those trades aren’t losses either but let’s take the Twins colored glasses off

The Dozier trade is a clear win, IMO.

[yeahyabetcha]

The trades made sense when they were made and several guys that they traded for have a chance to make the 26 man roster at some point this year.

[Linus]

The Dozier trade is a clear win, IMO.

Potentially yes. Will never be a loss because we didn’t give up anything but IMO it can’t be a win until Smeltzer or Raley do something significant

[jjswol]

So far the only player that has made even a small impact is Devin Smeltzer. Need to give this more time, too early to tell just yet.

[Don Walcott]

The Pressly and Escobar trades did not make sense at the time, and they still hurt. Of all of the names on the list, Pressly, Escobar and Lynn would be major improvements to this roster, if we could have kept them. Escobar's asking price was very reasonable. Pressly could have been extended as he was in Houston. Can't really blame anyone on Lynn, though it would have been nice if we had been smart enough to predict how good he'd be in 2019. I don't think any of the rest of the players on this list, on either side of the trade, would have made much of a difference in 2019. And I'm skeptical about whether any of them will contribute much in 2020 or beyond. So, overall, I'd say we were the losers in this group of trades when taken as a whole, primarily because we didn't keep Escobar and Pressly..

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I would have had a difficult time with another season of Lynn and/or Rodney. I miss Escobar and Pressly. But I understand every trade which was mentioned above.Trades are like baseball games: You win some, you lose some, and some are rained out (unless you have a retractable roof). 

[bird]

 

The Dozier trade is a clear win, IMO.

 

 

And the significant part of that win was refusing to commit to a long-term contract and upgrading the production at that position.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Dozier trade was a win, most of all for Dozier.

[KFEY93]

 

The Dozier trade was a win, most of all for Dozier.

Did you actually watch him play? He has been trash at the plate since he left the cities. We moved him later than we should have imo. Could have gotten more for him. 

[Mr. Brooks]

The Pressly and Escobar trades did not make sense at the time, and they still hurt. Of all of the names on the list, Pressly, Escobar and Lynn would be major improvements to this roster, if we could have kept them. Escobar's asking price was very reasonable. Pressly could have been extended as he was in Houston. Can't really blame anyone on Lynn, though it would have been nice if we had been smart enough to predict how good he'd be in 2019. I don't think any of the rest of the players on this list, on either side of the trade, would have made much of a difference in 2019. And I'm skeptical about whether any of them will contribute much in 2020 or beyond. So, overall, I'd say we were the losers in this group of trades when taken as a whole, primarily because we didn't keep Escobar and Pressly..

Escobar was a free agent, and declined the team's attempts at an extension.

The alternative of trading him wasn't to keep him, it was letting him walk for nothing.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Did you actually watch him play? He has been trash at the plate since he left the cities. We moved him later than we should have imo. Could have gotten more for him.

 

He was on the decline, for sure.

[Mr. Brooks]

Did you actually watch him play? He has been trash at the plate since he left the cities. We moved him later than we should have imo. Could have gotten more for him.

I think he means because Dozier won a ring, not because he's been good since.

[Mike Sixel]

The only one I don't like is Pressley. He was signed for another year, and they didn't have enough relief pitchers. 

 

The mistake with Lynn was not signing him earlier in the off season, so he'd be ready for the season. He's exactly the pitcher some of us thought he was in TX.....

[DocBauer]

While the jury is certainly out, I'd say they were good moves overall and potential wins. Even the Pressly deal, which I didn't like then and don't like now, could be a win or at least break even 2 years from now. Still would have rather kept him.

 

Losing Escobar hurt for a few reasons and I think we'd be a better team with him. But if they couldn't agree on an extension and he was going to leave, then they did the right thing at the right time

 

Hindsight is, of course, 20/20. But I wish we could go back, see the future, and play those moves differently.

[Don Walcott]

 

Escobar was a free agent, and declined the team's attempts at an extension.
The alternative of trading him wasn't to keep him, it was letting him walk for nothing.

Escobar signed for 3 years $21 million at the end of the season. I highly doubt that he would have turned down that amount of money from us prior to trading him. In fact, we should have offered him more, as he's worth much more than that.

[Mr. Brooks]

Escobar signed for 3 years $21 million at the end of the season. I highly doubt that he would have turned down that amount of money from us prior to trading him. In fact, we should have offered him more, as he's worth much more than that.

Perhaps he just didn't want to stay here. I can't imagine the Twins offer could have been much less than that very reasonable amount.

 

I remember a snowy game in April one year where Escobar was dressed for a 10 day trek across Antarctica. Perhaps he wanted to go somewhere warm, and it wasn't about the money.

[Don Walcott]

 

Perhaps he just didn't want to stay here. I can't imagine the Twins offer could have been much less than that very reasonable amount.

I remember a snowy game in April one year where Escobar was dressed for a 10 day trek across Antarctica. Perhaps he wanted to go somewhere warm, and it wasn't about the money.

That's possible. I don't ever recall hearing anything from Escobar other than he loved the team and the fans. We also haven't heard from the team regarding what they offered him to stay (if anything). You'd think we'd have heard a leak about it if the team actually made a reasonable offer. That's why I would guess that we didn't offer him 3 years and $21 million. And if that is the case, we made a huge mistake.

 

So, my best guess, based on the information we have, is that we could have had Escobar and his 111 OPS+ at second and third last year for $7 million, instead of Schoop for $7.5 million. And we'd be talking about moving Sano to 1st this coming year and having Esco full time at 3rd.

 

But, of course, we're all just using the information we have available to make our best guesses.

[Mr. Brooks]

That's possible. I don't ever recall hearing anything from Escobar other than he loved the team and the fans. We also haven't heard from the team regarding what they offered him to stay (if anything). You'd think we'd have heard a leak about it if the team actually made a reasonable offer. That's why I would guess that we didn't offer him 3 years and $21 million. And if that is the case, we made a huge mistake.

 

So, my best guess, based on the information we have, is that we could have had Escobar and his 111 OPS+ at second and third last year for $7 million, instead of Schoop for $7.5 million. And we'd be talking about moving Sano to 1st this coming year and having Esco full time at 3rd.

 

But, of course, we're all just using the information we have available to make our best guesses.

But it WAS reported that they offered him an extension, and they were rebuffed.

Amounts were never leaked, but he signed for such a reasonable amount with ARI that I can't imagine even this FO could have offered much less.

I can imagine they might have only been willing to go two years, and perhaps that was the sticking point.

[ken]

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/eduardo-escobar-posted-hilarious-tweet-after-trade-c287663154

 

Based on his response, I don't think there is much evidence Escobar wanted to leave.

[Mr. Brooks]

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/eduardo-escobar-posted-hilarious-tweet-after-trade-c287663154

 

Based on his response, I don't think there is much evidence Escobar wanted to leave.

He can't simultaneously be thankful for his time here, AND be ready to move on?

Why not?

 

I've said the same thing to employers when I've moved on, and meant it, even while being ready to move on.

 

He turned down their attempts to negotiate an extension.

[Don Walcott]

 

He can't simultaneously be thankful for his time here, AND be ready to move on?
Why not?

I've said the same thing to employers when I've moved on, and meant it, even while being ready to move on.

He turned down their attempts to negotiate an extension.

Obviously, it's not impossible for him to leave graciously. He's a class act, and I don't doubt his sincerity. But his affection for the team does lend credence to the idea that he would have stayed for a reasonable extension offer.

 

To say he "turned down their attempts to negotiate" also seems a bit speculative. Do you have any source for that information? Or are you simply saying that we were unable to get him to agree to the extension that our FO offered? Again, I don't know what we offered, but my best guess is that it was less than 3 years and $21 million, or he would have taken it. Remember, at that point, he had not yet played for the Diamondbacks, and would have had no reason to prefer them to the Twins.

[ken]

He can't simultaneously be thankful for his time here, AND be ready to move on?

Why not?

 

I've said the same thing to employers when I've moved on, and meant it, even while being ready to move on.

 

He turned down their attempts to negotiate an extension.

Based on what we know, it sure looks move likely he wanted to stay but the FO chose to trade him. It was a mistake so far unless they get some production from the prospects.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Based on the front office’s failure to make competitive offers to good free agents, and the ridiculously team-friendly extensions to Kepler and Polanco who are entering their primes, it’s easy for me to assume the extension offer to Escobar was ridiculously low.

[bighat]

 

The Dozier trade is a clear win, IMO.

Well, so far the Twins received a pitcher with a total of 2 MLB wins, 2 losses, and a 3.86 ERA for Dozier.

 

Dozier hasn't done much since leaving, and probably won't, but unless we trade Raley for MLB talent, and Smeltzer turns into a reliable MLB starter, you can't really say it's a huge victory or anything.

[mlhouse]

The key is did these moves add enough talent that the Twins can make similar moves of their own?

 

Can we package Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcala and get a reliever like Pressley?   

If we can't, they are almost all certainly bad trades.   

 

[old nurse]

 

Obviously, it's not impossible for him to leave graciously. He's a class act, and I don't doubt his sincerity. But his affection for the team does lend credence to the idea that he would have stayed for a reasonable extension offer.

 

To say he "turned down their attempts to negotiate" also seems a bit speculative. Do you have any source for that information? Or are you simply saying that we were unable to get him to agree to the extension that our FO offered? Again, I don't know what we offered, but my best guess is that it was less than 3 years and $21 million, or he would have taken it. Remember, at that point, he had not yet played for the Diamondbacks, and would have had no reason to prefer them to the Twins.

http://www.startribune.com/twins-dozier-lynn-and-duke-on-trading-block-as-deadline-nears/489458211/

Nobody reports what the Twins offer was. Maybe less, maybe more. Once traded the offer is gone.  You could claim he gave Arzona a discount because he liked so many things, felt like he was a team leader, or something else. Claims without evidence are easy to come by.