Front Page: Winter Meetings Bring a Dose of Cold Reality for Twins

[SpicyGarvSauce]

I mean, based on what people are saying about Minnesota and how terrible it is to live and raise a family in.

 

Give me a break - this is a culture thing. Teams can't take the Twins serious because of how they have handled free agency in the past.

 

Oh, and if they aren't going to be players in FA because of it being something that the player has to also agree to, then you go out and make a damn trade to BRING a guy to Minnesota where he has no choice. You force the hand, and stop sitting on these "prospects" that, more often than not, are never going to pan out. These excuse based articles, and continued support of the Twins and their lack of involvement in free agency should piss off any Twins fan that is legit about their team competing for a World Series.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the goal this front office has is to create a team that is always somewhat competitive without rebuilding. Then the hope is that everything will come together one season and we win it all. Honestly I would prefer a competitive team every year over a team that wins it all and then sucks for 5 years straight.

I'm not sure that's really the choice, though -- it's not like KC winning it all is really the reason they suck now. They've primarily just had a bad run of drafting and development most recently, after a nice of run of doing that earlier. They did supplement that with a few aggressive moves (Shield/Davis, Cueto, Zobrist) to help win that WS, but even adding Myers' Odorizzi, and Manaea back to the current Royals club, I'm not sure that gets them back to competitiveness right now.

 

I think the Twins goal should be to maintain better drafting and development, AND pair that with targeted aggressiveness like the Royals did. We're hopefully seeing the former, but still waiting on the latter. And I understand the anxiety while we wait, especially since "competitive every year" without postseason competitiveness feels a little empty...

[prouster]

I mean, based on what people are saying about Minnesota and how terrible it is to live and raise a family in.

 

Give me a break - this is a culture thing. Teams can't take the Twins serious because of how they have handled free agency in the past.

 

Oh, and if they aren't going to be players in FA because of it being something that the player has to also agree to, then you go out and make a damn trade to BRING a guy to Minnesota where he has no choice. You force the hand, and stop sitting on these "prospects" that, more often than not, are never going to pan out. These excuse based articles, and continued support of the Twins and their lack of involvement in free agency should piss off any Twins fan that is legit about their team competing for a World Series.

It’s not that people think it’s a terrible place to live. It’s that it’s not a major city, and a lot of people not from the Midwest either 1) don’t realize it’s in the United States (sounds crazy, but it’s true), 2) have pre-conceived notions that it’s a dinky little ice sheet populated by hicks (I guess in their minds this would make it an unpleasant place to live), and/or 3) equate it with Omaha, Topeka, and other small midwestern cities of the sort.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It’s not that people think it’s a terrible place to live. It’s that it’s not a major city, and a lot of people not from the Midwest either 1) don’t realize it’s in the United States (sounds crazy, but it’s true), 2) have pre-conceived notions that it’s a dinky little ice sheet populated by hicks (I guess in their minds this would make it an unpleasant place to live), and/or 3) equate it with Omaha, Topeka, and other small midwestern cities of the sort.

These guys have all played in the minor league circuit, though. They know what "small cities" are like. They know the difference between major and minor league, and Minneapolis is closer to major league like Chicago etc. than it is to minor league like Omaha and Topeka (or worse).

 

Not that there aren't differences, but considering the nature of the sport and the job, I don't think the Twins are at such a location disadvantage that high offers are going to be consistently rejected. Like most teams, they just have to make the high offer if they really want to land some of these players.

[birddog]

All Twins fans are frustrated that we haven't signed a new impact pitcher, but like every year patience is stressed. We got a taste of success and want to take the next step of advancing in the playoffs and Falvine said they would get us a difference maker and I think our only avenue is through a trade. I gotta believe they are doing their homework and will get it done. Just like the season is long, the off season is too. I like having Odorizzi and Pineda back and the talent of those contending for #4 and #5 is decent enough that I'm not panicking yet. But the clock is ticking. If free agents don't want to come to Minny, get 'em while they have no choice.

 

Cleveland appears to be selling out, but the White Sox are making a move and their young pitching could make them dominant like the Indians were for a decade. We have the prospect assets to acquire that impact SP. Get it done.

[Elliot]

There is not an unlimited payroll available. The Twins were apparently willing to spend 5 yrs/$100M for Wheeler, but that does not mean there is a similar offer available to throw at whomever is out there. That type of contract would overlap the first big contracts for Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Rogers, Rosario, May, Duffy ... as well as second contracts for Kepler and Polanco. Future payroll issues are not just based on when players are eligible for free agency, but tie in with deals to buy out arbitration and early free agency. The Twins years of having key contributors on minimum deals are over, at least with this crop. The current roster will increase in cost dramatically over the next few years. Even at a $150M level it will get tougher to retain players, especially if 20% of it is earmarked for a player on a long term $30M deal. Something that is becoming more common across the league is non tendering good young players based strictly on projected arbitration rates, often less than $10M/yr.

 

How do they compete? Berrios becomes an ace, another young pitcher steps up to fill a spot, and Royce Lewis becomes the 3rd baseman. Even larger market teams like the Dodgers and Yankees are being driven more and more by young players coming up through the system.

[joefish]

The reality of our path...

Sucks.

[bustedstuff88]

I believe the answer (as Aaron Gleeman stated in the most recent podcast) is that multiple factors are at work here...The proportions of those factors to one another is I think whats debatable. Its some combo of: Lower offers coming from MN, The percieved notion that this is not a "destination" (and within that are contained the "culture of losing" and the atmosphere in general in the frozen north/flyover state/nothing here....fill in the blanks). 

 

There are probably other factors too but those to me are the biggest ones. 

 

Still, not any amount of excuse is going to appease this fan base right now. Are we pissed? Yes we are. Will we go from pissed to burnign the place down come spring if nothing has happened? Best believe it. 

[ChrisKnutson]

If Texas can get Kluber for DeShields and Clase, getting Ray shouldn’t be too difficult, right??

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

It’s not that people think it’s a terrible place to live. It’s that it’s not a major city, and a lot of people not from the Midwest either 1) don’t realize it’s in the United States (sounds crazy, but it’s true), 2) have pre-conceived notions that it’s a dinky little ice sheet populated by hicks (I guess in their minds this would make it an unpleasant place to live), and/or 3) equate it with Omaha, Topeka, and other small midwestern cities of the sort.

Yeah, this is something I just cannot agree with or even come to comprehend as being a serious thought. It is just another built in excuse for the Twins continuing to fail to sign legitimate, organizational changing type players via FA.

[mattkummer]

There's a saying in hiring and recruiting people to work in Minnesota (or the Upper Midwest): It's extremely difficult to get them to come here, but if you get them, it's almost impossible to get them to leave. 

 

The Twins are facing the same challenges that any employer does. It's compounded by the fact that most MLB players are from warmer climates. If they have the choice, familiarity and lifestyle is going to win out. At a certain point, an extra $10-20 million isn't going to sway things all that much. And yes, I think the prospect of winters lasting into early May and starting in mid-October is a factor for baseball players when they have the choice to largely avoid it.

 

It's somewhat unique to baseball. Football is about the elements, and there's more variance in where players are from. I suppose it doesn't hurt that the Vikings play inside either. The Wild probably has an advantage because so many hockey players are from northern states or Canada. NBA is an indoor game, but even there it's tough to compete of the allure of Miami, LA, SF-- or if you don't mind the relative cold, NYC or Boston.

 

Money will be a big factor, but it's a two way street and the final decision in free agency rests with the individual player.

For the Twins, that means trading is the most likely path for impact pitching. And drafting/developing better than anyone.

 

[Mike Sixel]

All Twins fans are frustrated that we haven't signed a new impact pitcher, but like every year patience is stressed. We got a taste of success and want to take the next step of advancing in the playoffs and Falvine said they would get us a difference maker and I think our only avenue is through a trade. I gotta believe they are doing their homework and will get it done. Just like the season is long, the off season is too. I like having Odorizzi and Pineda back and the talent of those contending for #4 and #5 is decent enough that I'm not panicking yet. But the clock is ticking. If free agents don't want to come to Minny, get 'em while they have no choice.

 

Cleveland appears to be selling out, but the White Sox are making a move and their young pitching could make them dominant like the Indians were for a decade. We have the prospect assets to acquire that impact SP. Get it done.

There is no evidence Cleveland is selling out. They traded a guy that didn't play last year for a relief pitcher they love now. And cleared money.

 

As for the article, what should fans want, if not for the team to succeed at adding talent? Fandom is not rational, but once you are a fan, shouldn't you be upset if your team fails to add great players using one of the avenues to do so?

 

If there are barriers to people coming to Minnesota, it's leadership's job to create a team and culture that overcomes those barriers. Just like UHG, Target and other Minnesota companies do who still attract top talent.

[Dave Overlund]

 

There is not an unlimited payroll available. The Twins were apparently willing to spend 5 yrs/$100M for Wheeler, but that does not mean there is a similar offer available to throw at whomever is out there. That type of contract would overlap the first big contracts for Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Rogers, Rosario, May, Duffy ... as well as second contracts for Kepler and Polanco. Future payroll issues are not just based on when players are eligible for free agency, but tie in with deals to buy out arbitration and early free agency. The Twins years of having key contributors on minimum deals are over, at least with this crop. The current roster will increase in cost dramatically over the next few years. Even at a $150M level it will get tougher to retain players, especially if 20% of it is earmarked for a player on a long term $30M deal. Something that is becoming more common across the league is non tendering good young players based strictly on projected arbitration rates, often less than $10M/yr.

How do they compete? Berrios becomes an ace, another young pitcher steps up to fill a spot, and Royce Lewis becomes the 3rd baseman. Even larger market teams like the Dodgers and Yankees are being driven more and more by young players coming up through the system.

I see your point, which is well made, but I disagree.

 

If our prospect pipeline is as strong as they say it is, you don't need to resign all of the players you mentioned. Further, I would hope that we aren't avoiding signing an impact pitcher so that we can save up some money for Tyler freaking Duffey. 

 

One of the major problems I have as a lifelong Twins fan is this notion that we have to protect the future. I always hear a quote attributed to Torii Hunter (but have never been able to find the actual quote) where he (supposedly) said: "In Minnesota its always wait until next year, but next year never comes." 

 

Even the Yankees understand how it is done. You grow your core of players, then supplement them with trades and impact free agents. Rinse, repeat. 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There is not an unlimited payroll available. The Twins were apparently willing to spend 5 yrs/$100M for Wheeler, but that does not mean there is a similar offer available to throw at whomever is out there. That type of contract would overlap the first big contracts for Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Rogers, Rosario, May, Duffy ... as well as second contracts for Kepler and Polanco. Future payroll issues are not just based on when players are eligible for free agency, but tie in with deals to buy out arbitration and early free agency. The Twins years of having key contributors on minimum deals are over, at least with this crop. The current roster will increase in cost dramatically over the next few years. Even at a $150M level it will get tougher to retain players, especially if 20% of it is earmarked for a player on a long term $30M deal. Something that is becoming more common across the league is non tendering good young players based strictly on projected arbitration rates, often less than $10M/yr.

At least two position player starters (Garver and Arraez), one SP, and probably two opening day relievers will still be on minimum salaries next year. With a few more on the way.

 

I assure you, many folks have crunched the long-term numbers here at TD, and the Twins can absolutely afford such a deal right now. We're still quite a bit under our target 2020 payroll, and Marwin and Cruz will be riding off into the sunset shortly too. (And Rosario, May, and Duffey are more likely to ride off with them as they get more expensive, rather than get a meaningful extension.)

 

Now, as you say, just because we have the money available, it's still an open debate as to whether a particularly player is worth that commitment. But I don't think it's fair to suggest we may not be able to afford it in our 5 year outlook.

[bustedstuff88]

If the weather excuse is indeed our biggest enemy, then I say take the $$$ we arent spending on players this year and put a retractable roof on TF.

 

Problem solved.

[TerwilligerBuntsOne]

It's pick your poison time for the front office: Set the market/overpay for a top free agent with a long-term deal.....or trade away some of the prospects for a couple of years of a guy who was made expendable by his current team.  Either scenario might prove to be regrettable in a few years.

 

The FO seems to be suffering from analysis paralysis at this point.  Looking to be a player in some of these discussions, but unwilling or unable to take the next step to become a big player in either the free agent or trade markets. Always linked to guys, but unable to step up to the plate (baseball metaphor!) to actually get a major deal done.

 

Should be an interesting few months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[prouster]

Yeah, this is something I just cannot agree with or even come to comprehend as being a serious thought. It is just another built in excuse for the Twins continuing to fail to sign legitimate, organizational changing type players via FA.

It’s true, though. I no longer live in Minnesota, and people in my current city have asked me if it’s on the east coast. It doesn’t exist for many people outside the Midwest.

[Major League Ready]

 

Yep, I agree with you.

 

I mean, New York and LA are always going to have an advantage. But look at Houston or Atlanta. By all accounts, both cities are urban nightmares, nothing but sprawl and swampland. And it's a million degrees outside and humid as heck in the summer.

 

Why do players go there? The franchises have a history of paying big money, and both seem to be willing to do what it takes to contend. Heck even Detroit was a hot destination for players about 10 years ago when they were making their WS runs.

 

Atlanta and Houston’s largest FA signings back to 2012 are below.  (from Spotrac) Houston’s biggest contract was Josh Reddick 4/52M. He produced 3.4 WAR in his first year and 1WAR each of the last 2 seasons. Brantley was quite productive last year but that deal is actually a much better example of getting production without signing the 5+ year deals.

 

Will smith at 3/40 is Atlanta’s biggest contract in the past 5 years. Their largest was for BJ Upton 5/72.5M which was an absolutely horrible signing. So, holding up Atlanta as an example of building through high profile free agents also lacks substance.

 

Houston

2020 – Dustin Garneau – 650K

2019 – Michael Brantley – 2/32

2018 – Joe Smith 2/15

2017 – Josh Reddick – 4/52M

2016 – Tony Sipp  – 3/18M

2015 – Jed Lowrie – 3/23

2014 – Scott Feldman – 3/30M

2013 – Carlos Pena – 2.9M

2012 – Chris Snyder – 1/750K

 

Atlanta

2020 – Will Smith - 3/40M

2019 – Josh Donaldson - 1/23M

2018 – Peter Burjos – 1/1M

2017 – Bortolo Colon – 1/12.5M

2016 – Mike Minor – 2/7.5M

2015 – Nick Markakis – 4/44M

2014 – Ervin Santana – 1/14/1M

2013 – BJ Upton – 5/72.5M Upton produced 1.9 WAR total over the 5 years.
2012 – Jack Wilson 1/1M

 

BTW … The Atlanta area is quite nice with a very nice climate.

 

[kdag23]

What's wrong with Tyler Duffy?

[Linus]

I’m not disappointed that we didn’t get Bumgarner and won’t be if we don’t get Ryu simply because I don’t think they are that good anymore. We do need another pitcher so the onus is on Falvine to get it done a different way

[nicksaviking]

 

 

BTW … The Atlanta area is quite nice with a very nice climate.

 

Atlanta is far from one of my favorite cities, but lots of ballplayers are from the south. Even if they don't care for Atlanta, they can identify with it. And it seems most of them do care for Atlanta.

 

It was a different era for sure, but the Twins were always able to bring back the local guys. Molitor, Winfield, Morris, Steinbach. It's really a separate discussion, but it sure wouldn't hurt to invest more in local HS and U of M baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I’m not disappointed that we didn’t get Bumgarner and won’t be if we don’t get Ryu simply because I don’t think they are that good anymore. We do need another pitcher so the onus is on Falvine to get it done a different way

 

You don't think the MLB ERA leader is a good pitcher? I mean, you can think he's not elite, but you think the ERA leader is not good?

[laloesch]

 

It’s not that people think it’s a terrible place to live. It’s that it’s not a major city, and a lot of people not from the Midwest either 1) don’t realize it’s in the United States (sounds crazy, but it’s true), 2) have pre-conceived notions that it’s a dinky little ice sheet populated by hicks (I guess in their minds this would make it an unpleasant place to live), and/or 3) equate it with Omaha, Topeka, and other small midwestern cities of the sort.

And maybe just maybe statements like ^THIS^ is the reason many athletes do not want to move to the Twins Cities. 

[dex8425]

 

I’m not disappointed that we didn’t get Bumgarner and won’t be if we don’t get Ryu simply because I don’t think they are that good anymore. We do need another pitcher so the onus is on Falvine to get it done a different way

Ryu won the ERA crown last year. You don't think he's good?

Madbum was better than Berrios last year in many metrics. You don't think Berrios is good either? Madbum would've led our team in strikeouts and innings. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You don't think the MLB ERA leader is a good pitcher? I mean, you can think he's not elite, but you think the ERA leader is not good?

He's not that good *anymore*. That was like, what, 3 months ago?

[MABB1959]

 

There is not an unlimited payroll available. The Twins were apparently willing to spend 5 yrs/$100M for Wheeler, but that does not mean there is a similar offer available to throw at whomever is out there. That type of contract would overlap the first big contracts for Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Rogers, Rosario, May, Duffy ... as well as second contracts for Kepler and Polanco. Future payroll issues are not just based on when players are eligible for free agency, but tie in with deals to buy out arbitration and early free agency. The Twins years of having key contributors on minimum deals are over, at least with this crop. The current roster will increase in cost dramatically over the next few years. Even at a $150M level it will get tougher to retain players, especially if 20% of it is earmarked for a player on a long term $30M deal. Something that is becoming more common across the league is non tendering good young players based strictly on projected arbitration rates, often less than $10M/yr.

 

How do they compete? Berrios becomes an ace, another young pitcher steps up to fill a spot, and Royce Lewis becomes the 3rd baseman. Even larger market teams like the Dodgers and Yankees are being driven more and more by young players coming up through the system.

 

 

 

I think it is adorable that people think we will keep Sano, Buxton or Berrios. there will be some reason or excuse to get rid of them. I think money might be second to playing on a contending team or in WS. Some of them already have more money than most of us will see.

[Linus]

You don't think the MLB ERA leader is a good pitcher? I mean, you can think he's not elite, but you think the ERA leader is not good?

Busted-I thought of that after I hit reply. I do have concerns about his injury history however.

[howeda7]

 

TBH, I am surprised ANY free agent chooses Minnesota, given how horrible it is to live in Minnesota.

It's much worse than I realized. A frozen ice sheet with eskimos that most think is not even in the US (even though they've played here on the road and we have teams in every pro sport). I think contraction needs to be put back on the table.

[Mike Sixel]

Busted-I thought of that after I hit reply. I do have concerns about his injury history however.

I share those, but I'm not sure I have a better, realistic, option at this point....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's much worse than I realized. A frozen ice sheet with eskimos that most think is not even in the US (even though they've played here on the road and we have teams in every pro sport). I think contraction needs to be put back on the table.

Maybe we should just share a team with Tampa Bay, like some have proposed for Montreal?

 

If we could merge the current Twins and Tampa rosters, I'd consider it!