Article: MIN 8, LAA 7: Twins Squeak Out Victory

[wallyrichards]

I forgot one thing. It would be nice to add one more really good left hander to the bull pen. If Roco doesn't screw things up we should be the heavy favored to win our division. 

[bighat]

 

I forgot one thing. It would be nice to add one more really good left hander to the bull pen. If Roco doesn't screw things up we should be the heavy favored to win our division. 

 

The Twins are the heavy favorite to win the division already.

[rukavina]

By my count the Angels had 55 baserunners in three games and only 15 runs.  That we won two of three has to be a source of some frustration to Angels fans.

[wallyrichards]

 

I respect the heck out of Sid Hartman, he'll be a legend for a long time and should get his own statue on Nicolett Mall. That said....I dunno, man. Kinda hard watching him struggle to even get a question out there. I know, I know, I'm sorry.

 

Speaking of struggling. Happy trails, Hildy.

 

This Buxton guy might be finally living up to his potential. I'd love to see him getting more ABs but then again maybe the Twins are paranoid about anything that might seem like a "push". I'll take his .280 and league-leading doubles any day. Nice HR today too, he might hit 15-20 this year.

I agree about Sid there comes a time when a person needs to retire. Personally I don't agree with sending Hilde down if this is whats happened. I think its kind of chicken ____. The manager needs to take some of the blame for today and for the loss against Detroit. There is a reason all pitchers aren't closers. Except for this last week Hilde has done a great job this year. 

[ashbury]

Except that Harper, Magill, Morin, and Duffey have 7 ER in 27 IP this season.

For batters, OPS has supplanted Batting Average as a quick-and-dirty way of seeing how someone's season is going.

 

For relief pitchers, I'm surprised it hasn't also supplanted ERA, since the way earned runs are counted is so eccentric when partial innings are a large part of the landscape.

 

But you're right about Morin and Harper, who have OPS-against of .357 and .482 respectively (none of these stats include this afternoon's game). It's still small-sample terrain, especially for Morin, but so far, they have succeeded beyond expectations.

 

Magill's OPS-against is a less-impressive .707 and Duffey's is .720. Better than league-average, but their ERAs probably overstate their effectiveness.

 

Hildenberger's OPS is .895, which would be a fine result for any slugger outside of a very select few. Mejia's is at .837, definitely below par. De Jong's is a silly 1.667, and Vazquez's can't even be calculated since he didn't record any outs. So their OPS conform to our intuitions about what they've accomplished.

 

Blake Parker is quietly distinguishing himself, with a .510 OPS. More surprisingly, at least to me, is Trevor May with .529 - the hits he gives up are just so ill-timed, and usually that evens out during a season.

 

To me, quick-and-dirty OPS tells you more about how the pitcher is succeeding in getting batters out, without the need to delve into inherited runners being dealt with by the next reliever that ERA calls into question.

[stringer bell]

The Angels were relentless for three games, but didn't get the big hits. 45 hits in a three-game series and they only won one game. I will buy into the "luck argument" a bit. I haven't seen so many weakly hit balls roll through the infield against the shift, combined with so many balls getting through the shift. 

 

It's hard to say this, but Mike Trout wasn't that consequential. He could have driven in a dozen runs and probably seen to it that the Angels swept, but the Twins got him out in key at-bats.

 

It seems to me that the whole homestand was regression to the mean. Twins' starters allowed runs, including home runs after being tremendous for quite a while. Opposition hitters found grass with weakly hit balls and got balls over the fence. The Twins struggled with runners on, particularly against Detroit, but managed still to win four of seven, not great, but not a total disaster.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

 

How many pitchers would you trust in a playoff series against Houston? Right now I only trust Rogers, Parker, and May. It's time to get serious about the bullpen... The rest of the team is too good to pass up a playoff run.

I mean, we recently had seven games against Houston.

 

Rogers: 1 IP, 0 ER

May: 1.1 IP, 0 ER

Duffey: 1.1 IP, 0 ER

Parker: 2 IP, 0 ER

 

and then...

Magill: 2 IP, 2 ER (first appearance back)

Harper: 3.1 IP, 3 ER (in four appearances, three were scoreless)

Mejia: 1.1 IP, 3 ER

Hildenberger: 1.2 IP, 4 ER

Romero: 3 IP: 2 ER

 

I'm not saying that the Twins should just be rolling into a playoff series with Trevor Hildenberger and Adalberto Mejia as if everything is hunky dory. What I am saying is that it's really easy to overstate the bullpen's issues. There are four guys (Rogers, May, Parker, and Harper) who have been consistently solid. There have been three more guys, (Magill, Morin, Duffey) who have been good through limited action. I'm not bent out of shape about it. There's probably a need for additional reinforcements, but pretending that the whole bullpen is a disaster is simply wrong.

[stringer bell]

I think WHIP is another measure that is more accurate than ERA. Hildenberger hit 2.0 with his last outing. I checked his career numbers and they look pretty bad, as well. 

 

I do tend to agree with Chief that there has been some smoke and mirrors productivity in the bullpen. Other than Rogers, it is white-knuckle time every reliever toes the slab in a close game.

[ashbury]

I think WHIP is another measure that is more accurate than ERA. Hildenberger hit 2.0 with his last outing. I checked his career numbers and they look pretty bad, as well.

WHIP involves hits and walks, so it corresponds to the OBP part of OPS. What it doesn't include is power hitting, so it tells only part of the story. But the OBP part is pretty important - "is he recording outs?" - so WHIP is good.

 

Of course any stats are going to be affected by the manager's usage, e.g. whether the pitcher is trusted to face the heart of the opponent's order. I'd never recommend relying on just one stat. But ERA for a reliever ranks pretty low for me on what to look at.

[stringer bell]

 

I agree about Sid there comes a time when a person needs to retire. Personally I don't agree with sending Hilde down if this is whats happened. I think its kind of chicken ____. The manager needs to take some of the blame for today and for the loss against Detroit. There is a reason all pitchers aren't closers. Except for this last week Hilde has done a great job this year. 

You're not seeing what I'm seeing Wally. Hildenberger has been batting practice for a month.

[MMMordabito]

WooHoo!!! Hildenberger is gone!

[Aerodeliria]

 

That Cron play should make highlight reels for years to come.     It is hilarious.     I wish I could see the replay of Odorizzi's reaction.

 

I'm sure it will be added to MLB Oddities version 4 on Youtube. Cron already appears in one of those videos (as a Devil Ray) when he hit a pitch after it bounced in front of the plate (a flyout to left field). Amazingly, I watched that yesterday. I thought to myself that I had never actually seen that before (a batter making contact on a bounced pitch and hitting a fair ball--I wasn't even sure it was legal but apparently it is). What is so weird is that last night I was watching a game between the Yomiuri Giants and the Hanshin Tigers and in the top of the 7th inning, a Hanshin player did exactly the same thing by hitting a bounced pitch fair--a groundout to the catcher. My jaw dropped, but just to show you that baseball is one crazy game, in the bottom of the 7th, a Yomiuri player did the same thing. He hit a bounced pitch back to the mound. It was like the Twilight Zone.

 

It would be great if someone could actually deliver a base hit on a bounced pitch...has it ever happened?

[Diesel]

Even though a lot of our bullpen has been good so far, it would be nice to see the Twins to sign and trade for some flamethrowers. If only Romero could gain control.... I think Brusdar Graterol would also be an interesting September call up to see what he's got

[MMMordabito]

Knee jerk reaction. Hilde has done a lot more good than bad. The problem is the manager and how he uses him. Hilde is a 6th or 7th inning guy who pitches to 1, 2 or at most 3 guys. Hes not a closer and Roco should know this. The Angles have his number right now and we need to give him a few days off. I can't believe that Parker couldn't have pitched the ninth. Jesus he's been going 3 or 4 days between appearances I think he's rested enough to give a little more. I can live with siting Rodgers today but Roco almost cost us a sure victory today. I'm not sure but it looks like he's trying to reinvent the game. Its not rocket science when it comes to the bull pens you have long relievers, short relievers, 7th inning guys, set up 8th inning guys and a closer which we're lucky enough to have 2. Roco blew the tie game against Detroit that we lost when he should've used Rodgers in eighth and Parker in the ninth but decided to save them for some dumb reason and now he pulls this bull crap today. I've sung his praises but its looking like dumb luck now. This is a very good team all Roco has to do is stay out of there way. AS Sparky Anderson would say just don't trip them as there running out to the field. Or something like that.

This is a completely uninformed take. It isn't just the Angels that have his number. You forgot the Yankees, Astros and Tigers.

 

It isn't a kneejerk reaction either. His last 41 innings of hot garbage is more than enough to justify a demotion. He was the worst player on the team and deserves to be gone.

[yarnivek1972]

For batters, OPS has supplanted Batting Average as a quick-and-dirty way of seeing how someone's season is going.

 

For relief pitchers, I'm surprised it hasn't also supplanted ERA, since the way earned runs are counted is so eccentric when partial innings are a large part of the landscape.

 

But you're right about Morin and Harper, who have OPS-against of .357 and .482 respectively (none of these stats include this afternoon's game). It's still small-sample terrain, especially for Morin, but so far, they have succeeded beyond expectations.

 

Magill's OPS-against is a less-impressive .707 and Duffey's is .720. Better than league-average, but their ERAs probably overstate their effectiveness.

 

Hildenberger's OPS is .895, which would be a fine result for any slugger outside of a very select few. Mejia's is at .837, definitely below par. De Jong's is a silly 1.667, and Vazquez's can't even be calculated since he didn't record any outs. So their OPS conform to our intuitions about what they've accomplished.

 

Blake Parker is quietly distinguishing himself, with a .510 OPS. More surprisingly, at least to me, is Trevor May with .529 - the hits he gives up are just so ill-timed, and usually that evens out during a season.

 

To me, quick-and-dirty OPS tells you more about how the pitcher is succeeding in getting batters out, without the need to delve into inherited runners being dealt with by the next reliever that ERA calls into question.

You shouldn’t need to record an out to be able to calculate OPS against. ERA, yes.

[ashbury]

You shouldn’t need to record an out to be able to calculate OPS against. ERA, yes.

Mrs Cranfill in fourth grade was pretty adamant that zero divided by zero was undefined - it could be anything therefore you couldn't choose any particular one as the answer. I found the uncertainty deeply unsatisfying.

 

When I got to high school I found out that she had it right.

 

Vasquez hit a batter and issued two walks. No hits, no AB, so his SLG isn't infinity. It's just undefined.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm sure it will be added to MLB Oddities version 4 on Youtube. Cron already appears in one of those videos (as a Devil Ray) when he hit a pitch after it bounced in front of the plate (a flyout to left field). Amazingly, I watched that yesterday. I thought to myself that I had never actually seen that before (a batter making contact on a bounced pitch and hitting a fair ball--I wasn't even sure it was legal but apparently it is). What is so weird is that last night I was watching a game between the Yomiuri Giants and the Hanshin Tigers and in the top of the 7th inning, a Hanshin player did exactly the same thing by hitting a bounced pitch fair--a groundout to the catcher. My jaw dropped, but just to show you that baseball is one crazy game, in the bottom of the 7th, a Yomiuri player did the same thing. He hit a bounced pitch back to the mound. It was like the Twilight Zone.

 

It would be great if someone could actually deliver a base hit on a bounced pitch...has it ever happened?

Yep. Vlad Guerrero. I was watching the game when it happened. Damned near fell over laughing.

 

[Aerodeliria]

 

Um..Hildy has been sent to Rochester..the boys are 25-0 when leading in 8th..that is not a stat that trends with a weak pen. Harper, Morin, May, Parker, Rodgers, and Duffey are fine..no we do the Minor league shuffle for last spot..25-12 gents..not much to bitch about...and oh yeah, Buck is closing on .280, leading the league in doubles..and nothing hits the ground in the outfield but rain!! Go Teins!

 

Well, for the most part, I think that Rocco has used the pen effectively during the latter part of games. Early on in games, he has made some less than stellar choices IMHO, but it is all a learning process I suppose.

 

Hildy is an interesting case. He seems to be lights out and completely reliable for long stretches so that you even breathe a sigh of relief when he comes in to save the day. Then, it is like a switch is turned and he really can't get anyone out in any situation and you hold your breath in the hopes that someone might catch one of the line drives. This was the case last year as well. My point is, the natural emotional reaction is to say that he's become trash, but there must be a rationale behind his Jekyl and Hyde performances. I seriously doubt that he is washed up and if he can his head screwed on straight or fix his mechanics, he can be a great help to the team. At least with Hildy, you know what version you are getting. Right now, we are getting the Mr. Hyde version. 

[Aerodeliria]

 

Yep. Vlad Guerrero. I was watching the game when it happened. Damned near fell over laughing.

 

Thanks! That is amazing!!

[yarnivek1972]

Mrs Cranfill in fourth grade was pretty adamant that zero divided by zero was undefined - it could be anything therefore you couldn't choose any particular one as the answer. I found the uncertainty deeply unsatisfying.

 

When I got to high school I found out that she had it right.

 

Vasquez hit a batter and issued two walks. No hits, no AB, so his SLG isn't infinity. It's just undefined.

You didn’t say no AB (and I didn’t bother to look). Yes, that would make it difficult.

[Shaitan]

 

It's early training for October.  

I'm glad to see them winning competitive games. 8-1 is great and all. But you need to perform under pressure. Close games are the games you need to win to prepare for the full grind of a season.

[Shaitan]

 

Um..Hildy has been sent to Rochester..the boys are 25-0 when leading in 8th..that is not a stat that trends with a weak pen. Harper, Morin, May, Parker, Rodgers, and Duffey are fine..no we do the Minor league shuffle for last spot..25-12 gents..not much to bitch about...and oh yeah, Buck is closing on .280, leading the league in doubles..and nothing hits the ground in the outfield but rain!! Go Teins!

For some, mph is the only pitching stat that matters.

[Dantes929]

 

I'm sure it will be added to MLB Oddities version 4 on Youtube. Cron already appears in one of those videos (as a Devil Ray) when he hit a pitch after it bounced in front of the plate (a flyout to left field). Amazingly, I watched that yesterday. I thought to myself that I had never actually seen that before (a batter making contact on a bounced pitch and hitting a fair ball--I wasn't even sure it was legal but apparently it is). What is so weird is that last night I was watching a game between the Yomiuri Giants and the Hanshin Tigers and in the top of the 7th inning, a Hanshin player did exactly the same thing by hitting a bounced pitch fair--a groundout to the catcher. My jaw dropped, but just to show you that baseball is one crazy game, in the bottom of the 7th, a Yomiuri player did the same thing. He hit a bounced pitch back to the mound. It was like the Twilight Zone.

 

It would be great if someone could actually deliver a base hit on a bounced pitch...has it ever happened?

I don't know why but your post reminded me of when a pitcher bounced a ball way in front of home and  bounced to thigh high down the middle and AJ Pierzinski framed it and then held it for a while waiting for the ump to call it a strike.

[Dantes929]

 

How many pitchers would you trust in a playoff series against Houston? Right now I only trust Rogers, Parker, and May. It's time to get serious about the bullpen... The rest of the team is too good to pass up a playoff run.

I've never really trusted any pitcher in a playoff series against anyone.    Nathan against the Yankees?  Nope.   Reardon, Buerengueer, Frazier, Schatzeder, Atherton, Niekro?  Nope  I probably had the most confidence in Aguilera.    I guess I'm not sure why a relief group would be good enough to win 4 of 7 in a regular season series but not a playoff series but we are getting way ahead of ourselves.   They still have to make the playoffs.

[Dantes929]

 

The Angels were relentless for three games, but didn't get the big hits. 45 hits in a three-game series and they only won one game. I will buy into the "luck argument" a bit. I haven't seen so many weakly hit balls roll through the infield against the shift, combined with so many balls getting through the shift. 

 

It's hard to say this, but Mike Trout wasn't that consequential. He could have driven in a dozen runs and probably seen to it that the Angels swept, but the Twins got him out in key at-bats.

 

It seems to me that the whole homestand was regression to the mean. Twins' starters allowed runs, including home runs after being tremendous for quite a while. Opposition hitters found grass with weakly hit balls and got balls over the fence. The Twins struggled with runners on, particularly against Detroit, but managed still to win four of seven, not great, but not a total disaster.

Of course there is regression to the mean.    I don't expect them to win 108 games.    The key is to go on one more hot streak and play .500 ball otherwise.    Twins teams in the prior decade played near .500 for the vast majority of the time sprinkled with a couple of moderate or extended hot streaks.

[DocBauer]

For batters, OPS has supplanted Batting Average as a quick-and-dirty way of seeing how someone's season is going.

 

For relief pitchers, I'm surprised it hasn't also supplanted ERA, since the way earned runs are counted is so eccentric when partial innings are a large part of the landscape.

 

But you're right about Morin and Harper, who have OPS-against of .357 and .482 respectively (none of these stats include this afternoon's game). It's still small-sample terrain, especially for Morin, but so far, they have succeeded beyond expectations.

 

Magill's OPS-against is a less-impressive .707 and Duffey's is .720. Better than league-average, but their ERAs probably overstate their effectiveness.

 

Hildenberger's OPS is .895, which would be a fine result for any slugger outside of a very select few. Mejia's is at .837, definitely below par. De Jong's is a silly 1.667, and Vazquez's can't even be calculated since he didn't record any outs. So their OPS conform to our intuitions about what they've accomplished.

 

Blake Parker is quietly distinguishing himself, with a .510 OPS. More surprisingly, at least to me, is Trevor May with .529 - the hits he gives up are just so ill-timed, and usually that evens out during a season.

 

To me, quick-and-dirty OPS tells you more about how the pitcher is succeeding in getting batters out, without the need to delve into inherited runners being dealt with by the next reliever that ERA calls into question.

Can't like this post/idea enough!

[Aerodeliria]

 

That Cron play should make highlight reels for years to come.     It is hilarious.     I wish I could see the replay of Odorizzi's reaction.

 

This website has a video not only showing Odorizzi's reaction, but also provides another angle, showing Schoop fielding the imaginary baseball and throwing 'it' to Cron at first. Cron totally believes that Schoop had fielded it, so when the other baseball suddenly appears, he thinks it must be raining baseballs and gets totally freaked out. I'm not sure why Schoop did that, but it adds to the hilarity.

 

Here's the link: https://www.12up.com/posts/video-twins-cj-cron-missed-easy-toss-from-jake-odorizzi-after-being-tricked-by-jonathan-schoop-01dayeqq3hn3 (make sure you play the second video--the first one doesn't play--at least not on my pc)

Edited May 16, 2019 by Aerodeliria

[USAFChief]

I agree about Sid there comes a time when a person needs to retire. Personally I don't agree with sending Hilde down if this is whats happened. I think its kind of chicken ____. The manager needs to take some of the blame for today and for the loss against Detroit. There is a reason all pitchers aren't closers. Except for this last week Hilde has done a great job this year.

the manager needs to take some of the blame for Hildenberger??

 

Also, Hildenberger hasn't been good since a few weeks his rookie year. Decidedly below average.

 

You dont get an accurate picture of a player when you only consider his successes.

[bighat]

Reports say Austin Adams will be getting the call from Rochester. 32 year-old veteran who last pitched in the majors for Cleveland back in 2016.

 

Career MLB stats: 2-0 with a 6.29 ERA in 50 IP.

[big dog]

 

Yep. Vlad Guerrero. I was watching the game when it happened. Damned near fell over laughing.

Thanks, I was remembered that story but had never seen the clip.  I remember hearing something about Tony Oliva doing it, but I'm not sure he got a hit.  I'm far more sure that there's nothing about it on Youtube.