Article: There’s Hope for a Martin Perez Bounce Back

[Doomtints]

Also,

 

A 'bounce-back' for this dude is getting back to 100 ERA+. 

 

Hold onto your seats!

[jorgenswest]

I like the signing. Mid market teams need to sign and win on some of these guys.

 

They also need to be willing to take on a few big contracts. I expected them to couple the Cruz signing with another signing. My disappointment is with that lack of second signing and not with Perez.

[yarnivek1972]

How many fifth starters do the Twins need?Resigning Odorizzi was justified by many on this board by saying he’s a great fifth starter.

 

The Twins have a decent number 2 and 3 (assuming Gibson and Berrios stay healthy AND maintain or improve on 2018). If the Twins are really expecting Pineda to be a major contributor, I think they are in for disapointment. Let’s keep in mind the last three seasons he actually pitched he posted an ERA + of about 95. That’s not exactly moving the needle. So in Pineda, Perez and Odorizzi they have 3 4/5 starters, if things go well.

 

See the problem? There’s a hole at the top of the rotation.

[Danchat]

 

What are they going to do with Mejia? I believe he is out of options.

Sounds like he'll get a chance at the rotation, but he'll likely end up in the bullpen. If they decide to do anything with openers, he'll probably be a primary pitcher.

[killertwinfan]

Totally agree.  You won't know what this guy is going to do until he pitches in the regular season.  And, btw, we just dfa'd a similar pitcher that would get base pay.  So why did we let Zach Duke go?

So, his expected BA against should really be in the. 280 range? And his ERA should be in the 4.60 area? Yea, I'd take that for $3.5M instead of letting my talented arms audition, learn and grow. I'm sorry, I still don't get this move at all.

 

[Doctor Wu]

 

I like the signing. Mid market teams need to sign and win on some of these guys.

They also need to be willing to take on a few big contracts. I expected them to couple the Cruz signing with another signing. My disappointment is with that lack of second signing and not with Perez.

I like the signing too. And yes, still waiting for either a better quality starter to solidify the rotation, and/or a strong new arm in the bullpen. The wait continues.

[bird]

 

I'm in total agreement that the pitching depth has serious questions, but isn't that more of an indictment of the Perez signing rather than a justification for it?

 

How so?

 

An indictment of the state of things? Or an indictment of the decision to add an option?

 

I personally don't have an opinion about the signing, other than that I find it perplexing on the surface.

Edited February 4, 2019 by birdwatcher

[Otto von Ballpark]

How so?

 

An indictment of the state of things? Or an indictment of the decision to add an option?

 

I read it as, if the pitching depth is bad enough to justify adding Perez, it's probably bad enough to justify doing something more than simply adding Perez.

[howieramone2]

Very well written article. Mejia gave us all of 25 innings last season, and I'm not convinced he's healthy. Perez's and Mejia's ceilings are virtually identical and Perez has a higher floor(unlikely Mejia puts in 7-8 years). This signing gives us flexibility at a very reasonable price. If Mejia, Gonsalves, Stewart,Thorpe or Littell become a world beater, we can move Perez to the pen or DFA him. Note, when moved to the pen, Perez's velocity spikes.

Edited February 4, 2019 by howieramone2

[Doomtints]

The Twins are the only team I know of that perpetually signs nothing but #5s. It's not just that they won't sign aces, they won't even sign #3s (apart from Ervin Santana, who worked out very well and played as a #1/#2 for most of his time in MN).

 

For every #5 that turns into a 1-year wonder (Pavano, Hughes), there are half a dozen complete flops, and those 1-year wonders end up causing headaches when the Twins lock them up for more years before they crash back down to earth.......

 

Have to give it to the fans who stay optimistic about this stuff, but come on. If the Twins are good this year it won't be because of Martin Perez.

 

(And Mejia deserves a chance, damnit, don't Kennys Vargas this guy.)

Edited February 4, 2019 by Doomtints

[howieramone2]

 

The Twins are the only team I know of that perpetually signs nothing but #5s. It's not just that they won't sign aces, they won't even sign #3s (apart from Ervin Santana, who worked out very well and played as a #1/#2 for most of his time in MN).

 

For every #5 that turns into a 1-year wonder (Pavano, Hughes), there are half a dozen complete flops, and those 1-year wonders end up causing headaches when the Twins lock them up for more years before they crash back down to earth.......

 

Have to give it to the fans who stay optimistic about this stuff, but come on. If the Twins are good this year it won't be because of Martin Perez.

No team ever has a good year, merely because of their #5 starter. It's not Perez's fault he's not Kershaw. Take this move for what it is. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

How so?

 

An indictment of the state of things? Or an indictment of the decision to add an option?

 

I personally don't have an opinion about the signing, other than that I find it perplexing on the surface.

A little bit of both, though I'd add the qualifier this option rather than an option.

 

IMO adding a question mark to a group rife with them doesn't make much sense, at least not if the goal is to improve. 

 

 

[bird]

 

A little bit of both, though I'd add the qualifier this option rather than an option.

 

IMO adding a question mark to a group rife with them doesn't make much sense, at least not if the goal is to improve. 

 

 

Good qualifier for sure.

[howieramone2]

 

A little bit of both, though I'd add the qualifier this option rather than an option.

 

IMO adding a question mark to a group rife with them doesn't make much sense, at least not if the goal is to improve. 

How many free agents are not question marks? Remember, probably 80% of their previous employers gave up on them. I'm amazed at how many members still view free agency as Christmas time. That's been over for close to 10 years.

[Doomtints]

 

No team ever has a good year, merely because of their #5 starter. It's not Perez's fault he's not Kershaw. Take this move for what it is. 

 

I am "taking the move for what it is." I just finished saying he's a #5 in a long string of franchise #5s. Clearly I am under no illusion that he is an ace.

Edited February 4, 2019 by Doomtints

[howieramone2]

 

I am "taking the move for what it is." I just finished saying he's a #5 in a long string of franchise #5s. Clearly I am under no illusion that he is an ace.

I stand corrected. I'm tired of this board judging players on what they wanted, and not being at all realistic. Also, Pavano and Hughes were no where close to being #5s when they were signed. 

[ashbury]

 I'm tired of this board judging players on what they wanted, and not being at all realistic.

It isn't realistic to want the front office to sign someone with a better track record than what they already have? That's a pretty easy grading curve.

[howieramone2]

 

It isn't realistic to want the front office to sign someone with a better track record than what they already have? That's a pretty easy grading curve.

I've been screaming to trade for a youngish 2/3 for several years now. IMHO there are 10-12 #1s, probably 25-30 1s and 2s combined. Virtually every team is looking for the same thing. 

 

In 2020, Berrios, Gibson, Romero, Thorpe, free agent. Graterol in 2021. I don't know if I'm safe saying this, but 4 of the 5 are TR's guys.

[Mike Sixel]

 

How many free agents are not question marks? Remember, probably 80% of their previous employers gave up on them. I'm amazed at how many members still view free agency as Christmas time. That's been over for close to 10 years.

 

How many minor league prospects aren't question marks? Every player acquired in a trade was "given up on" by their former team (in return for players, or cash, or just roster space). Who is more likely to be good, a player that has already shown to be good in the majors, or a prospect who has never played in the majors?

 

And who thinks there are no question marks, or that it is a free gift? Anyone?

[howieramone2]

 

How many minor league prospects aren't question marks? Every player acquired in a trade was "given up on" by their former team (in return for players, or cash, or just roster space). Who is more likely to be good, a player that has already shown to be good in the majors, or a prospect who has never played in the majors?

 

And who thinks there are no question marks, or that it is a free gift? Anyone?

If you think every player traded was given up on, you need to pay more attention.

[Thrylos]

 

It isn't realistic to want the front office to sign someone with a better track record than what they already have? That's a pretty easy grading curve.

 

Sure.  Give me a name of  a free agent (because "sign" is the operational word) better than Perez that would have agreed to an one year deal with an option.

 

Should they have traded for a better pitcher?  For sure.  But that's a different ask

 

 

Edited February 5, 2019 by Thrylos

[Mike Sixel]

If you think every player traded was given up on, you need to pay more attention.

I don't. Any more than every free agent was.

[Mike Sixel]

Sure. Give me a name of a free agent (because "sign" is the operational word) better than Perez that would have agreed to an one year deal with an option.

 

Should they have traded for a better pitcher? For sure. But that's a different ask

Wait? They can only sign one year deals? And, I'm pretty sure this post isn't only about this year, or only about pitchers.

[Linus]

Liriano signed a minor league deal for around $1.3 million. This is the deal we should have pursued instead of Perez

[ewen21]

 

To put things into perspective:

 

a. Perez is 27 years old.  Here are Jake Arrieta's numbers up to his age 27 season in Baltimore: 5.46 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 1.472 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 

Ok.  There is a positive slant, but understand for every Arrieta there are dozens of others with these numbers who are out of baseball before they turn 30

[ewen21]

 

Liriano signed a minor league deal for around $1.3 million. This is the deal we should have pursued instead of Perez

Maybe it was pursued and he wanted nothing to do with the Twins.  We did not have the best relationship with him (even though that was with the old guard, not sure if he would feel like coming back)

[Otwins]

 

I like the signing. Mid market teams need to sign and win on some of these guys.

They also need to be willing to take on a few big contracts. I expected them to couple the Cruz signing with another signing. My disappointment is with that lack of second signing and not with Perez.

This is exactly how I feel. I do not mind the Parker or Perez acquisitions but I thought there would be a closer and another starter acquired. I think exploring trading Rosario for a good pitcher makes sense. With Kiriloff and Larnach coming soon and Cave able to fill in this year I think this is the closest thing to a surplus that we have to trade from. It may take Rosario and some prospects but we have a surplus there also.

Edited February 5, 2019 by Otwins

[KirbyDome89]

 

How many free agents are not question marks? Remember, probably 80% of their previous employers gave up on them. I'm amazed at how many members still view free agency as Christmas time. That's been over for close to 10 years.

Not all question marks are equal. Do you believe the Perez signing has the same odds of going belly up as signing Soria or Ottavino and slotting Romero into the rotation? 

Edited February 5, 2019 by KirbyDome89

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sure, Perez can bounce back. Great, sure, whatever. The problem is that even if he bounces back, his past ceiling has been "eh, whatever, he won't kill you out there in the fourth or fifth spot".

 

This team has a $100m payroll.

 

So forgive me if I don't get excited about a pitcher "bouncing back" to mediocrity when the team should have literally forty million dollars to go buy some real pitchers.

 

"Working within the margins" only matters if you're working at 100% payroll capacity... not if you have a Tampa Bay Rays-sized hole in your payroll.

 

That's not working within the margins. That's called "being cheap".

 

Again, super-thrilled that my Minneapolis tax dollars have supported this ever-underwhelming attempt at contention.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Not all question marks are equal. Do you believe the Perez signing has the same odds of going belly up as signing Soria or Ottavino and slotting Romero into the rotation? 

 

And this was probably the right play. Put Romero in there if you aren't going to sign the best FA pitcher out there. 

Put Romero in and buy or trade for the best bullpen piece you can get your hands on. 

 

Even using the large lefthanded kid in the rotation would have been preferable IMO. At the very worst, the guy shows he has a little something to the league and you can flip him packaged up for something decent. The league by now knows Perez isn't worth much.