Projecting Twins payroll: MLBtraderumors

[gunnarthor]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/twins-payroll-2019.html

 

They project a 125m payroll.

[Vanimal46]

Doh-kay.

[dbminn]

At $77M right now. Even if they convince LeMahieu to sign and add a couple of RP they'd get to only $100M - $105M. Feels about right considering comments from the FO.

 

 

[Doomtints]

After what Pohlad said this seems $10-$15M too high.

[yarnivek1972]

I doubt Adrianza is non tendered. He’s not expensive and someone will be the utility infielder. He’s as good as anyone else for the salary he will make.

[Brandon]

 

I doubt Adrianza is non tendered. He’s not expensive and someone will be the utility infielder. He’s as good as anyone else for the salary he will make.

I second this post.

 

Also I agree that the payroll is not likely to go past 110 million.  If it goes to 115 million I would be surprised and happy.  125 million I would think the Twins are going for it without a Bamtech sale with a 50 million windfall.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The writer of that article, with all due respect, seems to lack local insight into the team he is writing on. Not just the payroll part, which I am confident will not sniff anywhere near $125 million.

[Danchat]

Last year many here were saying that the Twins wouldn't sniff $130M payroll and that they'd have to drop out of the Darvish bidding due to salary reasons. The only thing that I do know is that I don't know where the payroll will be. I think some may end up surprised.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Last year many here were saying that the Twins wouldn't sniff $130M payroll and that they'd have to drop out of the Darvish bidding due to salary reasons. The only thing that I do know is that I don't know where the payroll will be. I think some may end up surprised.

Maybe we will be surprised. Payroll was always going to be high (“high” in quotes) with Mauer’s 2010 contract on the books. I think we’ll see it dip quite a bit this year.

[DocBauer]

The writer states $125M. Honestly, for 2019, I'd be happy with that, leaving some ceiling for a trade and 2020 additions. (Plus, of course, there is additional payroll coming off after next year, and additional potential payroll to come off).

 

The general consensus here is approximately $110M. Let's run with that for a moment. If payroll does currently sit at $77M, with Cron and minus Grossman, that leaves about $33M left.

 

An infielder should run $8-10M per. We'll go on the high side. Next comes a pair of bullpen arms. One on a 3yr deal, the other could be anywhere from a 1 to 1+1 to a 2 or 3yr deal. I'm thinking $10M plus a $7-8M. But let's inflate and just call it an even $20 per for 2019 and 2 signings.

 

That means Cron, a starting infielder and a pair of quality bullpen arms with a few $M left over. No big SP addition, rolling instead with what we have and having open competition with the various youngsters, including Thorpe at some point. It also means rolling with the OF we have on the 40 man.

 

Cron moves the needle, somewhat. The infielder and pair of RP moves the needle more. Just better health and some guys just not stinking, much less improving, moves the needle again. At least somewhat.

 

Are we OK with that? Do we feel it is a successful offseason, knowing we can't/won't just bump the payroll to $150M even if its feasible to do so?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The writer states $125M. Honestly, for 2019, I'd be happy with that, leaving some ceiling for a trade and 2020 additions. (Plus, of course, there is additional payroll coming off after next year, and additional potential payroll to come off).

 

The general consensus here is approximately $110M. Let's run with that for a moment. If payroll does currently sit at $77M, with Cron and minus Grossman, that leaves about $33M left.

 

An infielder should run $8-10M per. We'll go on the high side. Next comes a pair of bullpen arms. One on a 3yr deal, the other could be anywhere from a 1 to 1+1 to a 2 or 3yr deal. I'm thinking $10M plus a $7-8M. But let's inflate and just call it an even $20 per for 2019 and 2 signings.

 

That means Cron, a starting infielder and a pair of quality bullpen arms with a few $M left over. No big SP addition, rolling instead with what we have and having open competition with the various youngsters, including Thorpe at some point. It also means rolling with the OF we have on the 40 man.

 

Cron moves the needle, somewhat. The infielder and pair of RP moves the needle more. Just better health and some guys just not stinking, much less improving, moves the needle again. At least somewhat.

 

Are we OK with that? Do we feel it is a successful offseason, knowing we can't/won't just bump the payroll to $150M even if its feasible to do so?

nope, not calling that a success, but pretty much exactly what I think will happen.

[DocBauer]

Last year many here were saying that the Twins wouldn't sniff $130M payroll and that they'd have to drop out of the Darvish bidding due to salary reasons. The only thing that I do know is that I don't know where the payroll will be. I think some may end up surprised.

And I think your comment here should be carefully considered.

 

Either 2010 or 2011, I forget, the FO felt they had a real chance and set a record payroll. Unfortunately, injuries and the such de-railed that season. Really, the exact same thing happened in 2018.

 

Ownership HAS stepped up at times to make additions and a run. Pohlad may be a very intelligent man, but he has said some pretty silly things in the past. He just needs to stay away from the mic at times, IMHO. For instance, it's TRUE the Twins don't HAVE to spend Mauer's expiring $25M. They could save it for extensions, or a big trade mid season, or for a big move next offseason, or only spend half of it now, pocketing the rest with other money coming off the books for a future splash. We just don't know. But it's the WAY he states things that drives me nuts, and leads to all kinds of speculation. Negative speculation most of the time.

 

Could we indeed be surprised? Yes, we could be. Weren't we all surprised last season? I hope we are. Even if there was a directive not to exceed 2018's budget, just imagine what could be done with an extra $20M.

[DocBauer]

nope, not calling that a success, but pretty much exactly what I think will happen.

Mostly agreeing with you. Mostly.

 

I like the improved pen, infield, the new staff working with what is on hand, and really working with Romero and other young SP.

 

I'd say we'd be missing out on one more big needle mover. Personally, I'd say another bat.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Mostly agreeing with you. Mostly.

 

I like the improved pen, infield, the new staff working with what is on hand, and really working with Romero and other young SP.

 

I'd say we'd be missing out on one more big needle mover. Personally, I'd say another bat.

yeah, a bat (preferably RF) additionally to a decent middle infielder and two decent setup relievers would make this a success.

 

adding a mid rotation or better starter would be ideal... not likely. I don’t see the payroll creeping into the 140 range for at least a few years.

 

The wild eyed optimist in me would love to see one of the “decent setup relievers” or “mid rotation starters” replaced with “elite”. But ain’t no way we’re getting into the 150s in 2019, so if they go this route, in house options for all of the other gaps.

[DocBauer]

yeah, a bat (preferably RF) additionally to a decent middle infielder and two decent setup relievers would make this a success.

adding a mid rotation or better starter would be ideal... not likely. I don’t see the payroll creeping into the 140 range for at least a few years.

The wild eyed optimist in me would love to see one of the “decent setup relievers” or “mid rotation starters” replaced with “elite”. But ain’t no way we’re getting into the 150s in 2019, so if they go this route, in house options for all of the other gaps.

Great response! And we're on the same page. I absolutely, positively believe in pitching and want the Twins to add/find another top of the rotation starter. But unless we find a really smart/sweet deal to acquire one with control, and without mortgaging the future, I feel the best course is to work with what we have in the rotation for now and see how things play out. For the first half of 2019 at least. Berrios is going to continue to get better. Gibson has always been better than he's been credited...first 2 seasons, last season and a half, minus a bad season and a half, you do the math....and is a quality #3 who sometimes pitches like a legitimate #2. He should be extended. Pineda isn't special but a look at his career numbers shows him to be a pretty solid SP. The arm is healthy. The knee is supposedly a minor injury. Odorizzi is also not special, but solid, and shows life once in a while. Curious that each of the past two years he seems to pitch better late in the year. (Or so it seems). Is there still something mkre coming? But if he's my #4 I feel pretty good.

 

Someone, I forget who, recently posted some very interesting numbers concerning Gonsalves and Stewart, and their results, when they were the primary vs the starting pitcher. (For the record, I believe in Gonsalves's potential more than Stewart). But opening starter or not...and I now believe it's a great way to help introduce a young pitcher...isn't this the perfect time/season to audition these young SP, starting with Romero, and see what we have? Ridiculous as it sounds, SP wasn't the downfall in 2018.

 

$20M should buy a couple of really nice FA BP arms, especially in a deep market. Again, maybe a 3yr deal and then you look for a bounce back as the second option. The parameters are flexible. And then you make a quality investment in a 2B or SS that makes sense.

 

But if you really want to move the needle, after those moves, Falvey and Levine should have a conversation with Pohlad that goes something like this:

 

FL: Jim, we feel really good about the additions we've made and the talent on hand. We love Rocco and the staff we've surrounded him with. And we still have our entire milb system and prospects available. But we think we need to make at least one more move to really move forward. We really think we need one more bat to augment this roster, to go along with our new bullpen, and the SP we're working with and developing.

 

JP: But it didn't work out last season. And revenue is down, even though we finished in the black yet again. What do you have in mind?

 

FL: There a couple of really nice OF that could really push our lineup and make a difference. All we need to do is keep the payroll about where it was last season.

 

JP: Don't we have enough OF right now? We already strengthened the pen and infield and provided options to replace Joe. Everyone tells me we need another SP. So why an OF?

 

FL: We have done those things. And our new bullpen helps the entire team. And we do need at least one more SP. But we like what we have, and we have some guys we really need to look at and work with for our commitment to sustained success. But offense and roster flexibility, as well as FA opportunity, has given us a chance to add a big bat for our lineup.

 

JP: How will that work?

 

FL: Well, it's up to Rocco and his staff. We love the guys we have. We believe Buxton will break through, and Kepler is about to. Rosario is a stud. We really like Cave. But between OF, DH, and letting Kepler play some 1B, there is room. Besides, there are injuries and it's never a bad thing to have depth in case someone just has a bad season. And the market is perfect right now to add someone.

 

JP: OK. I see your point. But what about the black for 2019 and beyond?

 

FL: Hughes is off the books after 2019. And unless we decide to re-sign any of them, so is Castro, Reed, Pineda and Odorizzi. Any of them, or our "crowded" OF, could be traded mid-season in the right deal. And if we do decide to re-sign someone, it's because they deserve it. We still have a lot of flexibility.

 

JP: OK. You convinced me. Keep the payroll the same and make your move.

 

Fantasy? Maybe. But it's how I'd look at 2019.

[RatherBeGolfing]

"Today, we examine a club in one of baseball’s worst divisions that is nonetheless seemingly far from contention: the Minnesota Twins."

[rdehring]

Like the comment above, all we are doing is guessing.  My best guess, however, is that the payroll will be close to $100mm.  That doesn't include additional dollars to any of the three, Gibson, Rosario, Berrios, I hope get extensions this winter.  If they do all three with a couple/three extra million to each in 2019 I could see $110mm.  

 

I also will cast my vote that Kepler won't and shouldn't play an inning at first base in 2019 or the near future.  He was our best defensive outfielder in 2018 and is one of the best right fielders in the league, especially playing the Target Field wall, why would anyone take him away from his strength.

[nicksaviking]

After reading Pohlad's comments I'm also going to be surprised if this payroll is over $100M. I'd still bet there isn't a firm dollar amount that anyone is given, just the directive that all of their requests will not be approved this year. If they keep payroll low, they better spend it all on relievers on 2-3 year deals, that position looks to be where the favorable market will be.

 

While that's disappointing, it will leave plenty of room to take on payroll in the middle of the season should the team find themselves in good position.

[beckmt]

 

After reading Pohlad's comments I'm also going to be surprised if this payroll is over $100M. I'd still bet there isn't a firm dollar amount that anyone is given, just the directive that all of their requests will not be approved this year. If they keep payroll low, they better spend it all on relievers on 2-3 year deals, that position looks to be where the favorable market will be.

 

While that's disappointing, it will leave plenty of room to take on payroll in the middle of the season should the team find themselves in good position.

Do not like this, but is probably what will happen.  They will see if Sano and  Buxton rebound first and then make additions in mid season if warrented.  Expect to add 2 - 3 relievers and maybe a  second baseman and call it good for now.

 

 

[beckmt]

One other note, I believe far more in Stewarts stuff than Gonsalves.  I also believe we will see some trades in the next week (will be very disappointed if not).  It is time the Twins turned some of their minor league  depth into viable major league players from some of the clubs who are not planning to contend for a few years. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

My guess is around 110. Pohlad's comments tell me that $125M is highly unlikely... I want to be wrong there...

[nicksaviking]

 

One other note, I believe far more in Stewarts stuff than Gonsalves.  I also believe we will see some trades in the next week (will be very disappointed if not).  It is time the Twins turned some of their minor league  depth into viable major league players from some of the clubs who are not planning to contend for a few years. 

 

If the team isn't going to spend this off season and instead is focusing on developing from within, we may find this part just the opposite, though I'd hope not.

 

Though outside of Berrios, Gibson and Rosario, I don't think there are any MLB assets they could trade that would largely impact the 2019 season.

[PseudoSABR]

The only way payroll will be that high is if we sign a top tier free-agent, which is unlikely.  I think 125 may be a realistic number in another year when there isn't so much payroll coming off.

[Mike Sixel]

I'll be shocked if it is over $115MM. I project more like $105 to start the year, with enough guys traded at the deadline to get it under $100. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

After reading Pohlad's comments I'm also going to be surprised if this payroll is over $100M. I'd still bet there isn't a firm dollar amount that anyone is given, just the directive that all of their requests will not be approved this year. If they keep payroll low, they better spend it all on relievers on 2-3 year deals, that position looks to be where the favorable market will be.

 

While that's disappointing, it will leave plenty of room to take on payroll in the middle of the season should the team find themselves in good position.

 

Kind of self-fulfilling that they won't be, if that is the plan.

 

There literally isn't a 2B on the roster right now.....and not enough SP at all. Which, imo, is their plan. Spend a little to look "serious", like last year, with short term deals that don't help at all next year or the year after, and then trade off players because there just isn't enough here.....because, you know, they didn't add enough last year or probably this year. 

[Major League Ready]

Is my memory faulty?  I thought I remember ready or hearing in an interview that the starting point for their budget is previous year revenue. I am sure they adapt based on the market and what they get done or don't get done with specific FAs but I thought the starting point was previous year revenue.

[Doomtints]

 

Is my memory faulty?  I thought I remember ready or hearing in an interview that the starting point for their budget is previous year revenue. I am sure they adapt based on the market and what they get done or don't get done with specific FAs but I thought the starting point was previous year revenue.

 

Maybe Levine or Falvey said that. However, Pohlad said that just because money is coming off the books does not mean that same money is available to spend.

 

Obviously we will see what happens. Just by the nature of the holes the team has I think they will have to open the wallet a bit, but it won't be $125M. My guess is that payroll will go down if only to appease the guy who signs the checks, the question is how much will it go down? I don't think the drop will be too jarring, but who knows.

[KirbyDome89]

 

The writer states $125M. Honestly, for 2019, I'd be happy with that, leaving some ceiling for a trade and 2020 additions. (Plus, of course, there is additional payroll coming off after next year, and additional potential payroll to come off).

The general consensus here is approximately $110M. Let's run with that for a moment. If payroll does currently sit at $77M, with Cron and minus Grossman, that leaves about $33M left.

An infielder should run $8-10M per. We'll go on the high side. Next comes a pair of bullpen arms. One on a 3yr deal, the other could be anywhere from a 1 to 1+1 to a 2 or 3yr deal. I'm thinking $10M plus a $7-8M. But let's inflate and just call it an even $20 per for 2019 and 2 signings.

That means Cron, a starting infielder and a pair of quality bullpen arms with a few $M left over. No big SP addition, rolling instead with what we have and having open competition with the various youngsters, including Thorpe at some point. It also means rolling with the OF we have on the 40 man.

Cron moves the needle, somewhat. The infielder and pair of RP moves the needle more. Just better health and some guys just not stinking, much less improving, moves the needle again. At least somewhat.

Are we OK with that? Do we feel it is a successful offseason, knowing we can't/won't just bump the payroll to $150M even if its feasible to do so?

You've painted a very realistic scenario, and if it comes to fruition it'd be underwhelming to say the least. 

 

The part in bold was the mantra last offseason, and it goes back much farther than that. This team needs to choose a direction because right now it seems they're all too happy with chasing mediocrity while wasting the few cost controlled years that remain for the young core. 

[Vanimal46]

You've painted a very realistic scenario, and if it comes to fruition it'd be underwhelming to say the least.

 

The part in bold was the mantra last offseason, and it goes back much farther than that. This team needs to choose a direction because right now it seems they're all too happy with chasing mediocrity while wasting the few cost controlled years that remain for the young core.

As far as that direction, I hope it's trying to win now. Since there are more teams attempting to lose in MLB than there are attempting to win.

[KirbyDome89]

 

As far as that direction, I hope it's trying to win now. Since there are more teams attempting to lose in MLB than there are attempting to win.

Agreed, if they aren't willing to push in now with 3 potential 90 loss teams in their own division then there won't ever be a time.