Article: KC 6, MIN 5: Maybe It’s Better Off This Way?

[Tom Froemming]

When is a loss maybe a win? Well, when you think it might be best for your favorite team to sell at the trade deadline, but a recent surge has kinda sorta put them back into the playoff discussion, in theory. The way I see it, Twins fans can’t lose right now. If the team wins, great. If not, maybe in the big picture that’s for the best anyway.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)

Kyle Gibson: 43 Game Score, 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K, 2 BB, 63.1% strikes

Bullpen: 2.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K, 1 BB

Lineup: 3-for-13 w/RISP, 11 LOB

WPA of 0.1 or higher: Garver .154

WPA of -0.1 or lower: Rosario -.111, Dozier -.143, Gibson -.154, Kepler -.300.

Download attachment: WinChart720.png

After really playing around with things last season, I got these game recaps to a format I liked and haven’t changed them much over the course of this year. Let’s try something different tonight …

 

First Base

Nobody’s going to replace Platinum Glove Award winner Byron Buxton in center field, but Jake Cave has looked pretty darn good out there and tonight Max Kepler made a very nice catch at Kauffman:

Second Base

In 2018, sometimes it seems like up is down, left is right and third base is left field. Well, for a moment in tonight’s game that last part was actually true.

 

Check out this crazy shift the Twins were using against Lucas Duda below. They sent Eduardo Escobar way out there and had a three-man infield and a four-man outfield. Bonus points for creativity, buuuuuuut … Duda hit a home run.

Third Base

Kyle Gibson gave up four runs over 5 1/3 innings, but he pitched much better than that line would indicate. He induced what should have been an inning-ending a popup in the first, but Escobar had a hard time tracking it as he drifted out toward left field. It fell in for a two-out, two-run single. Per Baseball Savant, that ball had a hit probability of one percent. Ouch.

 

Hunter Dozier added a solid double that scored a run in the fourth before Duda smashed his homer in the sixth, so Kansas City definitely had some well-struck balls against Gibby. Still, he threw 63.1 percent of his pitches for strikes, once again did a great job of mixing things up and got 16 swinging strikes on his 102 pitches. Not Kyle’s best performance, but under normal circumstances he would’ve given his team a very good chance to win.

 

Home Plate

That’s all fine and dandy, but at the end of the day the Twins lost to the worst team in baseball. It is what it is.

 

Minnesota’s five runs came on a Kepler sac fly, a Mitch Garver triple, an Eddie Rosario fielder’s choice, a Brian Dozier groundout and a Garver bases-loaded walk. Altogether, the Twins left 11 men on base.

 

Alan Busenitz surrendered two runs in the seventh inning that really came back to haunt the Twins.

 

Still, KC led 6-1 at one point and the Twins managed to get the game-tying run to third base in the ninth after mounting a hard-fought rally. That’s gotta count for something, I guess.

 

The Twins took some great at bats in the top of the ninth inning, but the one I enjoyed in particular was from Rosario, who represented the game-tying run.

Postgame With Molitor

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Bullpen720.png

AL Central Standings

CLE 52-43 (Friday game still in progress)

MIN 44-51 (-8)

DET 41-58 (-13)

CHW 33-62 (-19)

KC 28-68 (-24.5)

 

Next Three Games

Sat at KC, 6:15 pm CT: Lance Lynn vs. Jakob Junis

Sun at KC, 1:15 pm CT: Jake Odorizzi vs. Brad Keller

Mon at TOR, 6:07 pm CT: TBD vs. Marco Estrada

 

More From Twins Daily

Miguel Sano Promoted to Triple-A Rochester

GM For A Deadline, Part One

Twins Owe it to Themselves to Look at Existing Talent in Second Half

 

Click here to view the article

[ChrisKnutson]

If we can’t beat KC we’re sellers, right?

 

(STL) © Andrew Knizner, (RHP) Jordan Hicks <—> Sano

 

(ATL) (RHP) Touki Toussaint <—> Rodney/Pressly

 

(MIL) (LHP) Kodi Medeiros, © Mario Feliciano <—> Dozier

 

(NYY) (RHP) Dillion Tate, (UTL) Brandon Drury <--> Gibson

 

(ARI) (RHP) Jimmie Sherfy, (RHP) Emilio Vargas <-> Escobar

 

(OAK) (SS) Richie Martin, (RHP) Bobby Wahl <—> Odorizzi

 

(BOS) (LHP) Williams Jerez <—> Duke

(WAS) (LHP) Sammy Solis <—> Lynn

(LAD) (SS) Ronny Brito <—> Reed (*if healthy*)

[killertwinfan]

yep.

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Playoff odds down to 0.7%. Escobar has to catch that pop-up.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good column. Your introductory paragraph was spot on. I enjoyed the new format. Thanks.

[slash129]

It was fun to watch at the end. That Kepler at-bat just didn't go our way.

[rdehring]

The game was lost in the first inning when Escobar couldn't make that play down the left field line.  Normally, that would be a ball the shortstop would catch.  Unfortunately, our geniuses had the shortstop playing somewhere over on the right side of the infield.

 

I know statistics tell us the shifts should work.  Some time they come back and bite you in the....you know where.  

 

And with it goes the Twins season.  To have any hope of getting back into this race, they need to win both series in KC and Toronto.  Well, that means they have to sweep the next two games versus KC.  Good luck!

[Riverbrian]

 

The game was lost in the first inning when Escobar couldn't make that play down the left field line.  Normally, that would be a ball the shortstop would catch.  Unfortunately, our geniuses had the shortstop playing somewhere over on the right side of the infield.

 

I know statistics tell us the shifts should work.  Some time they come back and bite you in the....you know where.  

 

And with it goes the Twins season.  To have any hope of getting back into this race, they need to win both series in KC and Toronto.  Well, that means they have to sweep the next two games versus KC.  Good luck!

 

I didn't realize that play in the first inning had that many serious implications. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

Here’s what I don’t understand about shifts, using Duda as the example. Obviously Duda wants to pull the ball, so rather than play a defense designed to deal with his strength, why not pitch him exclusively outside, and play a normal defense?

 

To me it’s like putting 8 guys in coverage against Tom Brady—you’re not going to get any pass rush, so he’s eventually going to find someone. If you shift to the right side that heavily, you have to lean away from pitches that would get hit to the left side, which is exactly what Duda wants.

[Danchat]

 

I didn't realize that play in the first inning had that many serious implications. 

Yeah, it stinks that we gave up two runs there, but the offense had plenty of chances to hit in some more runs and the pitching could have prevented some. The game was certainly not over when they happened.

[jimmer]

 

The game was lost in the first inning when Escobar couldn't make that play down the left field line.  Normally, that would be a ball the shortstop would catch.  Unfortunately, our geniuses had the shortstop playing somewhere over on the right side of the infield.

 

I know statistics tell us the shifts should work.  Some time they come back and bite you in the....you know where.  

 

And with it goes the Twins season.  To have any hope of getting back into this race, they need to win both series in KC and Toronto.  Well, that means they have to sweep the next two games versus KC.  Good luck!

Yeah, our season didn't hinge on that one play.  Sorry.  This team has lost a ton and really just doesn't have the talent to be true competitors.  

[jkcarew]

Here’s what I don’t understand about shifts, using Duda as the example. Obviously Duda wants to pull the ball, so rather than play a defense designed to deal with his strength, why not pitch him exclusively outside, and play a normal defense?

To me it’s like putting 8 guys in coverage against Tom Brady—you’re not going to get any pass rush, so he’s eventually going to find someone. If you shift to the right side that heavily, you have to lean away from pitches that would get hit to the left side, which is exactly what Duda wants.

 

I like your logic, and it might help. But, part of the issue, is that today batters wear the body armor and stand right on top of the plate (not all...many). Meanwhile baseball’s own little PC movement has made it a federal crime to pitch aggressively inside to knock the batter off the plate.

 

The unintended consequence in this case is that there is no pitch that catches even the outside corner that most pull hitters can’t pull with authority.

[jsteve96]

 

If we can’t beat KC we’re sellers, right?

(STL) © Andrew Knizner, (RHP) Jordan Hicks <—> Sano

(ATL) (RHP) Touki Toussaint <—> Rodney/Pressly

(MIL) (LHP) Kodi Medeiros, © Mario Feliciano <—> Dozier

(NYY) (RHP) Dillion Tate, (UTL) Brandon Drury <--> Gibson

(ARI) (RHP) Jimmie Sherfy, (RHP) Emilio Vargas <-> Escobar

(OAK) (SS) Richie Martin, (RHP) Bobby Wahl <—> Odorizzi

(BOS) (LHP) Williams Jerez <—> Duke
(WAS) (LHP) Sammy Solis <—> Lynn
(LAD) (SS) Ronny Brito <—> Reed (*if healthy*)

Love the time and effort put into this. No chance they all get traded but I'd love to see the Escobar, Dozier and Reed trades. The Pressly/sano ones seems pretty far fetched but the rest seem like realistic possibilities. 

[jsteve96]

 

Here’s what I don’t understand about shifts, using Duda as the example. Obviously Duda wants to pull the ball, so rather than play a defense designed to deal with his strength, why not pitch him exclusively outside, and play a normal defense?

 

Duda has hit 7 ground balls on the left side of second this year. it would be a waste of time putting someone over there.

[ChrisKnutson]

Love the time and effort put into this. No chance they all get traded but I'd love to see the Escobar, Dozier and Reed trades. The Pressly/sano ones seems pretty far fetched but the rest seem like realistic possibilities.

 

Updates:

 

(NYY) (RHP) Domingo German, (RHP) Dillion Tate <—> Gibson

 

(OAK) (SS) Richie Martin, (RHP) Carlos Ramirez <-> Odorizzi

 

(STL) (DH) Jose Martinez <—> Rodney

[jorgenswest]

Does the return for Familia from the A’s tell us anything about the market for relievers?

 

The Mets received a 26 year old AAA reliever. The A’s need relievers and didn’t call on him though he has a ton of strike outs this year. They also received a 24 year old 3B in high A. His 741 OPS ranks him 8th on his team among regular position players. They also received international money.

 

The Mes could have waited but took this deal. What should the Twins expect for their relievers?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Does the return for Familia from the A’s tell us anything about the market for relievers?

 

The Mets received a 26 year old AAA reliever. The A’s need relievers and didn’t call on him though he has a ton of strike outs this year. They also received a 24 year old 3B in high A. His 741 OPS ranks him 8th on his team among regular position players. They also received international money.

 

The Mes could have waited but took this deal. What should the Twins expect for their relievers?

For that price, maybe the Twins should have been buyers.

 

At least for the next 10 days or so.

 

Worst case, you drop further back and flip him like Jaime Garcia.

Edited July 21, 2018 by spycake

[Dman]

 

Does the return for Familia from the A’s tell us anything about the market for relievers?

The Mets received a 26 year old AAA reliever. The A’s need relievers and didn’t call on him though he has a ton of strike outs this year. They also received a 24 year old 3B in high A. His 741 OPS ranks him 8th on his team among regular position players. They also received international money.

The Mes could have waited but took this deal. What should the Twins expect for their relievers?

 

That i snot an exciting return at all.  I guess they feel Wahl is gonna be good.

[jokin]

Playoff odds down to 0.7%. Escobar has to catch that pop-up.

How many times have you seen a 3B make a catch directly overhead and ~100 feet behind him, plus a crosswind?

 

I haven't seen the probabilities, but it's probably less than 20%. That's almost always a SS or LF play, but of course, both were pre-positioned in another zip code.

Edited July 21, 2018 by jokin