Is It Time to Start Worrying About Sano?

[TheLeviathan]

Perhaps with distance, one can actually see things clearer than being very close all the time? I think it goes both ways, and both have advantages.

Or you see what you want to see.

 

A lot of the arguments against Sano are predicated on vague concepts like "He doesn't want to be great" observed from afar. Why should anyone put any stock into anything so nebulous?

[prouster]

So when do the home runs start showing up? He's never been even close to leading the league in home runs. Not as a counting stat or a rate stat. The suggestion that he has a real chance at leading the league in home runs is absurd on its face.

 

30 HR's per 140 games isn't particularly notable in today's game.

What is happening?

[h2oface]

 

Or you see what you want to see.

A lot of the arguments against Sano are predicated on vague concepts like "He doesn't want to be great" observed from afar. Why should anyone put any stock into anything so nebulous?

 

Maybe. Just the ol' "fresh eyes/outside perspective" thing. I don't think anyone wants him to be striking out 40-50% of his at bats. Plus, everyone that competes at this level wants to be great. That is a given. Of course he wants to be great. Work is shown by results and actions, not words, eh?

 

I am still bummed that they moved him off shortstop. He could have been the most massive shortstop in MLB history!

[DJSim22]

The strikeouts are a problem, but I'm not too worried yet.  Still pretty young still hits home runs.  Considering the MLB has pretty much turned into an all or nothing league (bores me) he's still got plenty of value.

[Ultima Ratio]

Look like Adam Dunn so far.

[Twins33]

Look like Adam Dunn so far.

Correction, that would be old Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn never stuck out above 30% until he was 30 or 31. So he's old Adam Dunn but with more power.

[Mr. Brooks]

From the Sano threads, you'd never know that any other stats besides strikeouts exist.

[launchingthrees]

 

Correction, that would be old Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn never stuck out above 30% until he was 30 or 31. So he's old Adam Dunn but with more power.

 

If Sano reaches Dunn's production I'll be thrilled. Adam Dunn was significantly more advanced as a hitter than Sano at the same age. A lot more walks, fewer strikeouts. Similar power #s. Sano does have some additional upside on defense though.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So when do the home runs start showing up? He's never been even close to leading the league in home runs. Not as a counting stat or a rate stat. The suggestion that he has a real chance at leading the league in home runs is absurd on its face.

 

30 HR's per 140 games isn't particularly notable in today's game.

There's more to it than homers per 140. Sano has been injury-plagued in every season he has played, which drags down his numbers.

 

For example, he started 2017 by hitting 21 home runs in 82 games (80 games started).

 

And home park has a lot to do with it. Do you think Judge is the absolute beast he is if he plays half his games in a neutral home park setting? He's still a monster but maybe a 45 home run monster, not a 55+ homer monster.

[Linus]

The strikeouts continue to pile up. That combined with sub par fielding makes me think the premise of starting this thread is legit. I get that he will punish the occasional cookie but He has no chance against any decent fastball especially up. I think the league has adjusted to him and now he has to make the adjust back

[Thrylos]

The strikeouts continue to pile up. That combined with sub par fielding makes me think the premise of starting this thread is legit. I get that he will punish the occasional cookie but He has no chance against any decent fastball especially up. I think the league has adjusted to him and now he has to make the adjust back

.366 wOBA and 129 wRC+ as of today, makes me think that the "adjust back" was done and over with it.

[MaxOelerking]

If Sano was 27 years old I would be concerned, but he's just about to turn 25. Still has the best part of his career ahead of him. Sure, he should try and keep the extra weight off, but if he keeps slugging over .500 and walks over 10% of the time he will be just fine. May he never reach his full potential? Sure, which would make him an above average player who we have yet to offer a big scary contract. Another thing to note, since Sano debuted in 2015 he has a walk-rate of 12.1%. Over that same time, Mauer's walk rate is 11.8%. Don't fret over Miguel Sano folks.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It's time to move him down to sixth, and sit him against guys he can't hit (like tonight, Archer has always owned him).

 

He plays good enough D at 3B for now for a 30+ hr guy.

[MaxOelerking]

 

Right now Sano is much more similar to Morrison than Ortiz

Morrison had his first really good year at 29...Sano has been producing big numbers already at 23 and 24.

[MaxOelerking]

 

I don't think ,250/.350/.500, with too many Ks to drive in a bunch of runs, is "really, really good."

Coupled with defensive questions, that's absolutely not "really, really good."

And yeah, I was hoping for "really, really good."

That's like saying a hockey player who scores 30-40 goals per year but takes too many penalties no longer makes him "really, really good"...if he scores he scores, what happens in between doesn't really matter. Could he score more? Sure, but if you change his game too much he could also score less. Not sure if this made much sense but it's the closest thing I could think of.

[Danchat]

I mean, I am a little concerned. I have very high expectations for him, and the second half of 2017 and the first few weeks of 2018 have me disappointed. I think he has the ability to be an annual all-star and he should hit 40+ HRs a year. He's still young and has a ton of baseball ahead of him, so I expect he'll improve his presence at the plate, but it's not going to be easy. It will be frustrating to have so many 0 for 5 games with 3 strikeouts, but we'll have to put up with it and hope Sano adjusts. I think he will at some point.

[MaxOelerking]

 

Doesn't power typically progress later than other abilities?
Brian Dozier hit 9 HR's as a 24 year old, 42 as a 29 year old.

Also, Sano has 37 HR's per 162 games for his career. That happens to be the exact same rate as Hank Aaron.
Harmon Killebrew had 38 per 162, Willie Mays had 36 per 162, Ken Griffey jr. had 38 per 162.
That 36 to 39 per 162 range is where most of the all time HR leaders check in at, in fact.

If you want to say he'll never be healthy enough to do it, ok fine, but to say he doesn't have the ability is just flat wrong.

100% agree, if he can stay healthy, Sano could put up Pujols like numbers and hit 35+ bombs, 35+ doubles. 

 

[MaxOelerking]

Stanton has a couple 5 K games this year. Frustrating for the Yankees? YES. Concerning? Not at all, he'll make adjustments (like he's done already in his career) and produce. Sano has a great hitting coach at his disposal in James Rowson who will get him straightened out. R-E-L-A-X

[snepp]

 

100% agree, if he can stay healthy, Sano could put up Pujols like numbers and hit 35+ bombs, 35+ doubles. 

 

Pujols put up a decade-long stretch of "one of the greatest in the history of baseball" kind of numbers, starting at 21 years old.

 

Sano isn't that level of player, healthy or not.

[USAFChief]

Pujols put up a decade-long stretch of "one of the greatest in the history of baseball" kind of numbers, starting at 21 years old.

 

Sano isn't that level of player, healthy or not.

OPS over 1.000 in 8 of those 10 years, .997 and .955 the two he missed.

 

Sano is nowhere near Albert Pujols.

[USAFChief]

That's like saying a hockey player who scores 30-40 goals per year but takes too many penalties no longer makes him "really, really good"...if he scores he scores, what happens in between doesn't really matter. Could he score more? Sure, but if you change his game too much he could also score less. Not sure if this made much sense but it's the closest thing I could think of.

No, it’s saying I don’t consider an .850 OPS “ really really good.”

 

It’s not.

 

And he won’t even maintain that at current K rates.

[snepp]

 

OPS over 1.000 in 8 of those 10 years, .997 and .955 the two he missed.

Sano is nowhere near Albert Pujols.

 

Strikeout rate under 10% during that period as well, which is ridiculous.

[Linus]

 

 

Morrison had his first really good year at 29...Sano has been producing big numbers already at 23 and 24.

The Morrison reference was rough and aimed at last year as he hit 38 homers. All or nothing hitters with poor defensive value are not that hot of a commodity. I thought Sano was going to be more than an all or nothing hitter but I’m worried about that now. He has been striking out at a very high rate for quite a while now and there doesn’t seem to be any change in approach. Any good fastball above the belt he can’t touch and the league knows it

[Riverbrian]

In 2009... Mark Reynolds struck out 223 times in a single season. That is the MLB record. 

 

If Sano can stay healthy (fingers crossed) ... He will surpass that. 

 

 

 

 

[lukeduke1980]

One of my favorite activities - 'Baseball Reference.com similar player through age...'

 

Notables:

Willy Mo Pena

Jesse Barfield

Pete Incaviglia

 

Harmon Killebrew

 

[Mike Sixel]

No, but I can see concerned from where I sit now.

[Squirrel]

 

Pujols put up a decade-long stretch of "one of the greatest in the history of baseball" kind of numbers, starting at 21 years old.

 

Sano isn't that level of player, healthy or not.

This bears repeating a few times. While I'm not overly concerned ... yet ... I am, well, wondering. Maybe our expectations in regards to Sano are too high. I'm not saying that everyone is expecting him to be Pujols, but I still wonder if he's just not going to progress as a hitter the way we think he should or want him to because he just ... can't. Yeah, when he connects ... wow! And we want a lot of that connection. And when we see that connection we think this is who he'll be. But maybe he's just not the next coming of greatness. I'm not sure when the time will come to make that call, and I'm certainly not even close to making that call on Sano yet, because I want him to be able to put it all together and I'm hoping he still will, but ... that's what's in the back of my mind; that is the niggling concern for me, that he's just not that and won't be, no matter what he does.

[MaxOelerking]

 

No, it’s saying I don’t consider an .850 OPS “ really really good.”

It’s not.

And he won’t even maintain that at current K rates.

Fransisco Lindor's OPS in 2017 was .842, most would consider him really really good. He even struck out less than Sano and he still had a higher OPS. Maybe we have different standards for "really really good", but I would take an .850 OPS player with the potential to get a lot better.

[MaxOelerking]

 

Pujols put up a decade-long stretch of "one of the greatest in the history of baseball" kind of numbers, starting at 21 years old.

 

Sano isn't that level of player, healthy or not.

I was referencing hitting 35+ doubles and 35+ home run seasons. NOT trying to compare Sano to Pujols...that was probably a bad example.

[Mr. Brooks]

Fransisco Lindor's OPS in 2017 was .842, most would consider him really really good. He even struck out less than Sano and he still had a higher OPS. Maybe we have different standards for "really really good", but I would take an .850 OPS player with the potential to get a lot better.

I certainly won't pile on Sano, but Lindor is a shortstop. An .850 OPS at SS is a hall of famer.

At a corner spot, it's a good hitter, one any team would take, but not historically noteworthy.