When do the Twins cut bait with Phil Hughes?

[nicksaviking]

Things have gotten strange. To quote John Lennon... "Most Peculiar Mama". 

 

Normally people argue WITH insurance. 

 

Yet... here we are arguing ABOUT insurance. 

I think Lennon also said " All You Need is Low Deductible Coverage".

[snepp]

It's one thing to have a high-ish BABIP, it's another entirely to have one that's astronomically out of whack.

 

 

Danny Santana had the 3rd highest BABIP, of all players in the last 60 years, that had more than 400 plate appearances in a season.

[Mike Sixel]

It's one thing to have a high-ish BABIP, it's another entirely to have one that's astronomically out of whack.

 

 

Danny Santana had the 3rd highest BABIP, of all players in the last 60 years, that had more than 400 plate appearances in a season.

that doesn't mean it was luck.... Sigh.

 

We really need to teach probability in high school.

[ashbury]

that doesn't mean it was luck.... Sigh.

 

We really need to teach probability in high school.

So your position is that the high BABIP that year was a skill, whether innate or acquired?

 

In that case what happened to that skill the following season? 

 

Skills like home-run hitting or base stealing don't tend to disappear quite that suddenly for a player of that age.

 

Or, if it wasn't luck, and it wasn't skill, what term would you pick for it?

[adorduan]

Just wanted to add an update to my post with the pitch speeds the other day.  While watching the Pirates broadcast for the game today they mentioned something to the effect that the speeds getting put up on the broadcast were 3 mph slower than what was showing at the ballpark.  Take it for what you will, but I wanted to get that out there.

[Mike Sixel]

So your position is that the high BABIP that year was a skill, whether innate or acquired?

 

In that case what happened to that skill the following season?

 

Skills like home-run hitting or base stealing don't tend to disappear quite that suddenly for a player of that age.

 

Or, if it wasn't luck, and it wasn't skill, what term would you pick for it?

No. The sigh was meant to state it was 100% luck. The next statement that we need to teach statistics and probability was meant to reinforce that statement. I failed in communication, apparently

[howieramone2]

 

What insurance company was willing to provide $26.4 mil in coverage for Hughes' shoulder after 2017? How much do you think the Twins would have to pay for such a policy? This is nothing like renewing accident insurance on an automobile.

80-90% probability, Lloyds of London took on the contract at it's inception, so the shoulder injury occurred within the policy period. No idea what the going rate is. Agreed, Lloyds of London is not State Farm. Lloyds is what's called a non-admitted company, which means there is little or no regulation. They can offer whatever they want.

[Mike Sixel]

Pages of arguing if insurance exists, when no one knows. Impressive, really. I don't have the stamina for that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Everyone here needs to step back and take a deep breath. You're all speculating based on previous personal experience and/or readily-available information about past contract insurance. Both sides have legitimate arguments but you're arguing a point that has no resolution because we simply do not know whether Hughes' contract is currently insured.

 

So what's the point? You can argue over assumptions or just let it drop. I suggest the latter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Pages of arguing if insurance exists, when no one knows. Impressive, really. I don't have the stamina for that.

Beat me to it by one minute.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Beat me to it by one minute.

 

One of the many advantages of being barely employed....

[ashbury]

No. The sigh was meant to state it was 100% luck. The next statement that we need to teach statistics and probability was meant to reinforce that statement. I failed in communication, apparently

Apparently my handy-dandy sarcasm-O-meter was mis-adjusted when I read it. As you were.

[TheLeviathan]

I would like an insurance policy for reading this thread please.

[Puckett34]

 

I tried looking for a while and couldn't find any public information on the matter, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. 

 

So, like Bigfoot?*

 

 

*sarcasm.  In case the tag is needed

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Hughes "takes the bump" again today, and here is my bingo card*:

 

- on an 0-2 pitch

- shoulda been out of the inning

- still injured

- spring training stats don't matter

- working on change up grip

- can't read too much into one start

 

 

 

*keeping with the sarcasm theme..

[jkcarew]

 

So your position is that the high BABIP that year was a skill, whether innate or acquired?

 

In that case what happened to that skill the following season? 

 

Skills like home-run hitting or base stealing don't tend to disappear quite that suddenly for a player of that age.

 

Or, if it wasn't luck, and it wasn't skill, what term would you pick for it?

fwiw...I do think that BABIP is a batting skill...(or that, at the very least, sustainable deviations from the mean exist, and can be explained in terms of skills or combinations thereof).  But it's a rare skill and not one that Danny Santana has.

 

Also impressed that BABIP made it into this thread.  Too tired to discover how or why.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also impressed that BABIP made it into this thread. Too tired to discover how or why.

Tying it all back together, Phil Hughes BABIP allowed:

 

2014: .324

2015: .304

2016: .323

2017: .333

[jkcarew]

 

Tying it all back together, Phil Hughes BABIP allowed:

2014: .324
2015: .304
2016: .323
2017: .333

Ahh!  So, it WAS related to the Phil Hughes discussion.  Suddenly, it's less interesting. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Against a minor league lineup.

[jkcarew]

But, wait!  Near-domination against a potent* Yankee line-up.

(* The Yankees have a potent line-up, and Hughes was pitching against the Yankees.)

 

Extrapolating a bit, this is a sub-2 era, nearly a K/inning...basically 7-8 WAR over the coarse of the year.

Also, the .231 BABiP should be sustainable now that it's obvious he's healthy.  Discuss.

[Vanimal46]

 

The old Glen Perkins DL special. Mild oblique strain.

[Mike Sixel]

I try very hard to believe players when they say they are hurting, so I won't say this stretches credulity. Good luck in your healing!

[KirbyDome89]

I'm sure the extra few weeks is all he needs to get that arm strength back....

[yarnivek1972]

Unless Tyler Duffey is recalled, the Twins really don’t have a long reliever or someone who might be able to make those handful of spot starts needed in April.

[Vanimal46]

Unless Tyler Duffey is recalled, the Twins really don’t have a long reliever or someone who might be able to make those handful of spot starts needed in April.

I'd rather see one of Slegers, Jorge, Romero, or Gonsalves making those handful of spot starts.

[jorgenswest]

A pitcher can start the Rochester home opener on April 6 (or even the AA game on April 5 or 6) and the be called up for the April 11 start. They can then send them back to AAA to make a start and return the 24th when the Twins will need a 5th starter for the second time. That starter can stay on schedule and stretched out.

 

Meanwhile they can carry an extra position player or reliever. They will need to send out a reliever on the 11th and bring up a different reliever after the 11th but they have Busenitz or others to bring up. On the 24th, they will need to make a decision about the extra position player or reliever..

[IndianaTwin]

Giving Hughes a short DL stint would also allow keeping another reliever or bat until he's needed as the No. 5 starter on April 11. 

[Squirrel]

A pitcher can start the Rochester home opener on April 6 (or even the AA game on April 5 or 6) and the be called up for the April 11 start. They can then send them back to AAA to make a start and return the 24th when the Twins will need a 5th starter for the second time. That starter can stay on schedule and stretched out.

Meanwhile they can carry an extra position player or reliever. They will need to send out a reliever on the 11th and bring up a different reliever after the 11th but they have Busenitz or others to bring up. On the 24th, they will need to make a decision about the extra position player or reliever..

Has there been any mention yet who that starter is for Rochester?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

http://mlb.com/r/article?ymd=20180409&content_id=271485158&vkey=news_min&c_id=min

 

Hughes “in the mix” for 5th starter. Like somehow he’s earning something or what? Odd that it doesn’t even really sound like he’s injured

[Vanimal46]

http://mlb.com/r/article?ymd=20180409&content_id=271485158&vkey=news_min&c_id=min

 

Hughes “in the mix” for 5th starter. Like somehow he’s earning something or what? Odd that it doesn’t even really sound like he’s injured

That's because he was "injured" in order to get stretched out more. Let's hope it's only 1 start before moving on.