Twins Give Darvish a Formal Offer

[TheLeviathan]

 

Given Wade, Granite, even Lewis and Rooker, and the availability of Gomez.....I'd do that trade also. 

 

I'd rather have Archer and Wade/Granite/Gomez as the RF, than Kepler and, um, ???. 

 

Exactly.  And if you add Darvish to the mix as well, this rotation just went from a whole bunch of those annoying things we've been posting for ten years now (question marks) to a damn fine rotation.  Playoff worthy even.

 

I had forgotten how close Wade and Rooker likely are as well.   Even more reason to push.

[kab21]

 

All of the key FA pitchers are significantly better than Gibson, Mejia, and whoever the 5 is.

Reality is that they aren't signing two of the key FA pitchers. They are signing one of the key FA pitchers and one from the bargain area (<30M contract). I will take one key FA pitcher and pass on throwing some money at a maybe okay pitcher.

But hey if they are really going to open things up and spend 30-40M/yr on pitching then I agree with you.

[darin617]

 

What if TB adds Colome?

 

Kepler and Gordon

for

Odorizzi, Colome, and Span

Would jump on that deal in a heartbeat.Turn around and flip Colome to St Louis.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Mike's post in fangraphs sort of dovetails into this one.  Klaw thinks it would cost Kepler, Gordon, and Romero for Archer.

 

I'd do that in a heart beat.  I wouldn't even blink and I'm a fan of Kepler.

 

Then you turn around, pony up for Darvish, and fish around in the market for Gomez, CarGo, or Melky Cabrera to fill RF.

 

I feel that is both a dramatic, immediate upgrade while not crippling the base of talent on the farm.  

have to admit that one would be tempting. Only name I'd be a bit hesitant on would be Romero, but I doubt he contributes much this year.

[Mr. Brooks]

losing Rosario would be more painful than losing Kepler in my humble opinion.

Swap Kepler in for Rosario and I still Insta accept if I'm the Twins.

[Bob Sacamento]

Don't know if it's been mentioned yet but according to ESPN stathead @DSzymborski, adding Darvish would increase the Twins postseason chances by 18 percent.

[prouster]

Lol? You value strikeouts over actual production? You don’t care if a guy gives up a lot of extra base hits as long as he strikes guys out? That’s crazy

How are strikeouts separate from "actual production"? I'm confused.

 

On topic: I'd have no problem with them using Kepler as a centerpiece for Archer. He still hasn't proven that he can hit lefties with consistency. Let Tampa work on him if it means the Twins get Archer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Mike's post in fangraphs sort of dovetails into this one.  Klaw thinks it would cost Kepler, Gordon, and Romero for Archer.

 

I'd do that in a heart beat.  I wouldn't even blink and I'm a fan of Kepler.

 

Then you turn around, pony up for Darvish, and fish around in the market for Gomez, CarGo, or Melky Cabrera to fill RF.

 

I feel that is both a dramatic, immediate upgrade while not crippling the base of talent on the farm.  

I'd have the paperwork filed before I hung up the phone.

[HitInAPinch]

 

nope

Never heard of him.  What position does he play?

[Twins33]

have to admit that one would be tempting. Only name I'd be a bit hesitant on would be Romero, but I doubt he contributes much this year.

I think Romero ends up in the bullpen so I actually find it easier to include him over Gonsalves. I hope I'm wrong about that if he stays a Twin.

 

Either way, do I see Romero or Gonsalves ever putting up Archer numbers in the majors? Even if you just go with the last two years for Archer:

 

28% K (7th in MLB for qualified SP)

7.5 BB% (23rd)

K/BB% of 20.9 (7th)

3.60 FIP (11th)

3.38 xFIP (8th)

12.8 SwStr% (7th)

 

These are considered his "bad" years and he's still top 11 in 5 out of 6 of those categories. Do I see either Gonsalves or Romero putting up those types of numbers, especially compared to the league? Nope! And you're exchanging one of them for a pitcher who only has two fewer years of control.

 

It's a no brainer for me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Twins Give Darvish a Formal Offer

Maybe they meant it was an offer to go to a formal (dance)? Prom season is just around the corner!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Mike's post in fangraphs sort of dovetails into this one. Klaw thinks it would cost Kepler, Gordon, and Romero for Archer.

Seems like if that's what the Rays wanted, Archer would have already been dealt, probably to some other club.

[Don Walcott]

 

Never heard of him.  What position does he play?

I don't know . . . third base?

[Doomtints]

 

So would Jaime Garcia increase the Twins postseason chances by 2 percent?

 

Wouldn't a healthy Darvish be worth around 5-6 wins (no, I'm not talking about WAR)? That's more than 2% if the Twins are slated to finish around .500 with what they've got.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Lame. The Twins have a good shot & repeating last seasons success without adding Darvish. Weak division besides Cleveland & with everyone according to the players union in tank mode no reason for him.

 

So would Jaime Garcia increase the Twins postseason chances by 2 percent?

 

Getting to the postseason also means nothing if you get knocked out right away so there would need to be more than 1 move to make it worth it.

 

I don't know what this post means. If they add a good player this year, this is one less they need to add next year. What does the lame part mean?

[T.C.]

Not sure I understand the argument against Span. His contract ($11 million) might be slightly more than ideal but it's about the same as Torii's reunion tour ($10.5 million), and he's still only 33. The posting fee for Park was $12.85 million for goodness' sake! Our payroll is more than $20 million below league average! So what if we overpay by a couple of million for a productive asset?

 

Rosario-Buxton-Span is a very solid outfield. Especially considering Span knows and likes Target Field.

 

In his 3 years with the Twins at Target field (hasn't returned since) he hit:

 

           Target Field        Season

2010     .302                     .264

2011     .286                     .264

2012     .332                     .283

 

I understand batting average isn't the best metric, but there's certainly a pattern here.

 

The Twins had the youngest average batter's age in the playoffs last year. A little experience could help this team, especially if/when we hit a rough patch in the season. Also, from the little I know, he's a hard working guy which, from what I've heard, is something some of our guys could use a little bit more of.

 

Not saying we should chase the guy, but what's with all the negativity?

[darin617]

 

I don't know what this post means. If they add a good player this year, this is one less they need to add next year. What does the lame part mean?

It might help if you look at the original post..  That sounds like agent talk trying to up sell their client.

[ashbury]

It might help if you look at the original post.. 

Using the Quote button when replying helps a lot, in this regard.

[jimbo92107]

Despite my reservations about Darvish's arm, if the Twins sign him, I'll cheer. It's tough to get a serious horse on the mound, even one that may be slightly past his prime. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Seems like if that's what the Rays wanted, Archer would have already been dealt, probably to some other club.

 

Probably, but Keith Law is fairly plugged in and he was the one floating out that package.  I think it seems light too, but if something like that was in the ballpark I'd be all over it.

[Mr. Brooks]

Not sure I understand the argument against Span. His contract ($11 million) might be slightly more than ideal but it's about the same as Torii's reunion tour ($10.5 million), and he's still only 33. The posting fee for Park was $12.85 million for goodness' sake! Our payroll is more than $20 million below league average! So what if we overpay by a couple of million for a productive asset?

 

Rosario-Buxton-Span is a very solid outfield. Especially considering Span knows and likes Target Field.

 

In his 3 years with the Twins at Target field (hasn't returned since) he hit:

 

Target Field Season

2010

.302

.264

2011

.286

.264

2012

.332

.283

I understand batting average isn't the best metric, but there's certainly a pattern here.

 

The Twins had the youngest average batter's age in the playoffs last year. A little experience could help this team, especially if/when we hit a rough patch in the season. Also, from the little I know, he's a hard working guy which, from what I've heard, is something some of our guys could use a little bit more of.

 

Not saying we should chase the guy, but what's with all the negativity?

He's not a productive asset anymore though. He's among the worst fielders in all of baseball. Despite a league average OPS, he was more than a full win worse than replacement level.

 

I guess if they take him as a salary dump, then release him, it would be fine. Don't want him on the 25 man roster though.

[bcs4]

I think Santana's injury causes the Twins big problems. He'll miss a good part of the season, and even when he returns, he's not likely to be what he was last year. That's a big hole for a team with an ERA that was 9th in the league and got into the wild card with an 85 win season. I think if the Twins add Darvish, a lot of things have to go right just to get the wild card.

 

If Cleveland and Houston don't win all of those games again next year, an 85 win season isn't going to do it. The Twins need 2 good pitchers. Not placeholders. What are the real odds that Gibson will be good?  Right now we only have Berrios as someone that we might be able to count on, and he threw 145 innings last year.  I don't see a good year ahead if we only add Darvish.

[TNTwinsFan]

I think Santana's injury causes the Twins big problems. He'll miss a good part of the season, and even when he returns, he's not likely to be what he was last year. That's a big hole for a team with an ERA that was 9th in the league and got into the wild card with an 85 win season. I think if the Twins add Darvish, a lot of things have to go right just to get the wild card.

 

If Cleveland and Houston don't win all of those games again next year, an 85 win season isn't going to do it. The Twins need 2 good pitchers. Not placeholders. What are the real odds that Gibson will be good?  Right now we only have Berrios as someone that we might be able to count on, and he threw 145 innings last year.  I don't see a good year ahead if we only add Darvish.

Berrios also threw another 39.2 innings (call it 40) in AAA before being called up. 185+ innings of Berrios this year would be great. But this only goes to further support my position that they should certainly sign Darvish, but also trade for someone like Archer. If it takes a Kepler to get that done, then also sign a JD Martinez or even a Carlos Gomez type bat to replace him in the short term. As much as I would LOVE to see Rooker up with the Twins this year, I don't think he makes his debut until 2019.

[kab21]

 

He's not a productive asset anymore though. He's among the worst fielders in all of baseball. Despite a league average OPS, he was more than a full win worse than replacement level.

I guess if they take him as a salary dump, then release him, it would be fine. Don't want him on the 25 man roster though.

He was worth 1.2 WAR (fangraphs) last season. The same as Kepler.

He is now bad as a CF but he wouldn't be a CF'er in MN. It is tough to project how his defense would play in RF or LF since it is an easier position to field but also less valuable.

Anyway you are far overstating the necessity to release him if he was included in a trade.

[Mr. Brooks]

He was worth 1.2 WAR (fangraphs) last season. The same as Kepler.

 

He is now bad as a CF but he wouldn't be a CF'er in MN. It is tough to project how his defense would play in RF or LF since it is an easier position to field but also less valuable.

 

Anyway you are far overstating the necessity to release him if he was included in a trade.

Negative 1.1 bWAR.

[kab21]

 

Negative 1.1 bWAR.

I think you are putting a little too much emphasis on WAR when there are other factors (like a positional change) and SSS of defensive statistics (notice the variation in two measurement systems). 

He is almost certainly not as bad of a player as you claim.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think you are putting a little too much emphasis on WAR when there are other factors (like a positional change) and SSS of defensive statistics (notice the variation in two measurement systems).

 

He is almost certainly not as bad of a player as you claim.

Perhaps, but he's been a negative defensive player four consecutive seasons (bref), so that certainly seems to be the trend.

His offensive upside is league average, so I just don't feel he's worth the risk in a corner OF spot on a team with playoff aspirations.

I don't see him as an upgrade over Granite, and I'm not a Granite believer.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Wouldn't a healthy Darvish be worth around 5-6 wins (no, I'm not talking about WAR)? That's more than 2% if the Twins are slated to finish around .500 with what they've got.

I think there's legitimate reason to question a lot of the projections. This team was over .500 last year and it was a very young team. Those teams typically do better the following year, and add to it that Falvine has spent heavily on the BP this offseason.

 

Bottom line is that I think they are already better than last year and should slot into the 85-90 win range. If they get Darvish, that should have them over 90. If they get Darvish and a TB pitcher, they should be reasonably expected to challenge Cleveland.

[FormerMinnasotan]

For what it’s worth it sounds like the Twins are offering up the most years on a contract and from what I read on mlb.com they are now more open to a 6 yr deal. Now I don’t know how the financial side of it is except a 6 yr deal will up the price of the deal to over $100 million. So now we’ll see, will it matter more to Darvish if he gets more years on a contract or a higher yearly salary.

[Tomj14]

 

IBottom line is that I think they are already better than last year and should slot into the 85-90 win range. If they get Darvish, that should have them over 90. If they get Darvish and a TB pitcher, they should be reasonably expected to challenge Cleveland.

I don't think they are better with Santana's injury. We were really lucky last years with injuries (minus Sano) and had a few players play over their heads. Asking for that two years in a row is asking a lot.

But if we do, the offensive is the same maybe a little bit better, starters are worse, and the bullpen is about the same which wasn't great.