Twins Give Darvish a Formal Offer

[Tom Froemming]

 

I don't think that would be enough to get Archer. But if it was, I wouldn't even have to think about it before pulling the trigger, from the Twins side.

If I'm the Rays, negotiations for Archer start at either Buxton, Berrios or Royce Lewis. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he's only due a grand total of $34.08 million over the next four seasons. They have very little incentive to trade him away unless they get an incredible deal.

[laloesch]

 

That would be sad considering he has reportedly received multiple 5 year offers for over $100 M. 

 

To me the most interesting part of the report was that the Twins are apparently only looking to fill one rotation spot. 

 

That may not be true.  

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/twins-rumors-offer-yu-darvish-rays-trades.html

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/jake-odorizzi-collin-mchugh-rays-astros-trade-interest-rumors.html

 

mlbtraderumors is saying that the Twins are still activily talking to the Rays about Odorizzi, and Rosenthal suggests that remains the case.

[laloesch]

 

If the Rays want Kepler they likely would want the Twins to take back the Span contract as part of a trade.

 

The Twins are still linked to Odorizzi.  I wonder if the Rays want Kepler as the center of a deal along with other pieces.  

[Thrylos]

 

What was Milwaukee's offer? Wasn't it more then that?? I mean it should at least match that one or why would he choose the Twins over them??

 

Have you been to Milwaukee? 

[Squirrel]

 

Have you been to Milwaukee? 

It's not so bad. There are several trains a day to Chicago.

[darin617]

 

So he signs tomorrow right?.....

With the Dodgers...

[darin617]

Moving Kepler in a deal to get Archer would be fine with me. Depending of course what were the remaining pieces were as well. This could open a spot for Zack Granite or the Twins could easily grab a free agent on a 1 year deal for cheap.

 

Melky Cabrera, Cameron Maybin, Jayson Werth, or Carlos Gonzalez would all be worth bringing in for the right deal. Melky Cabrera should be the target,

[amjgt]

What was Milwaukee's offer? Wasn't it more then that?? I mean it should at least match that one or why would he choose the Twins over them??

A) none of us know the years and money from other deals

B.) even if the Twins offer is lower, there are things that could make it more appealing. An opt out probably being the most appealing feature.

[jud6312]

 

Moving Kepler in a deal to get Archer would be fine with me. Depending of course what were the remaining pieces were as well. This could open a spot for Zack Granite or the Twins could easily grab a free agent on a 1 year deal for cheap.

 

Melky Cabrera, Cameron Maybin, Jayson Werth, or Carlos Gonzalez would all be worth bringing in for the right deal. Melky Cabrera should be the target,

I'm not sure opening a spot for Granite is all that great. I am not at all sold on him - he strikes me as the second coming of Jason Tyner. The list of available veterans is underwhelming at best - the drop-off defensively would be really steep.

 

If Kepler goes as part of a deal for Archer, I wouldn't like it, but it wouldn't be the end of the world (I'm not on team "Archer's one of the best pitchers in baseball"). If he were to go for Odorizzi, it'd be awful.

[KirbyDome89]

 

That may not be true.  

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/twins-rumors-offer-yu-darvish-rays-trades.html

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/jake-odorizzi-collin-mchugh-rays-astros-trade-interest-rumors.html

 

mlbtraderumors is saying that the Twins are still activily talking to the Rays about Odorizzi, and Rosenthal suggests that remains the case.

I don't doubt that they've inquired on several different arms. I took the quote to mean that they view the rotation as acceptable apart from one high end upgrade. IMO if Ervin was healthy to start the season there would still be plenty or room for another arm. It doesn't have to be Lynn or Odorizzi to pair with Darvish, but even signing Jaime Garcia alleviates a little pressure. Relying on Gibson and Mejia leaves questions, then add to it the fact that 2 more rotation spots have to be filled for the first month or more and any sort of comfort level with the starting rotation fades rather quickly. 

[Mike Sixel]

Have you been to Milwaukee?

Players are there, what, 3-4 months a year, and most of that they have night games.

[AZTwin]

If I'm the Rays, negotiations for Archer start at either Buxton, Berrios or Royce Lewis. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he's only due a grand total of $34.08 million over the next four seasons. They have very little incentive to trade him away unless they get an incredible deal.

Best pitchers in baseball? His ERA is that of a #3 pitcher. Who cares if he has high strikeouts. If we trade any of those guys for Archer, we are crazy.

[nicksaviking]

 

Best pitchers in baseball? His ERA is that of a #3 pitcher. Who cares if he has high strikeouts. If we trade any of those guys for Archer, we are crazy.

 

I'll take the high strikeouts over the ERA. This team's biggest deficiency is too many pitchers who put too many balls in play, that needs to be remedied in every way possible.

 

But I'd probably balk at those three players as well. I might be able to be talked into Lewis.

[darin617]

 

Best pitchers in baseball? His ERA is that of a #3 pitcher. Who cares if he has high strikeouts. If we trade any of those guys for Archer, we are crazy.

ERA might be higher because of those hitters parks in the AL East. The ball seems to jump in Boston, Baltimore, & Toronto. Same part if you would look at his starts he may have had 1 or 2 starts where he got shelled & would make the ERA a little higher than it should be.

[AZTwin]

I'll take the high strikeouts over the ERA. This team's biggest deficiency is too many pitchers who put too many balls in play, that needs to be remedied in every way possible.

 

But I'd probably balk at those three players as well. I might be able to be talked into Lewis.

Lol? You value strikeouts over actual production? You don’t care if a guy gives up a lot of extra base hits as long as he strikes guys out? That’s crazy

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

How long is a standard MLB contract? Is a book, or just a few pages?

 

I'm curious how quickly agents can comb through the fine details.

It won't take long to "SHOW ME THE MONEY!"

[Otto von Ballpark]

How long is a standard MLB contract? Is a book, or just a few pages?

 

I'm curious how quickly agents can comb through the fine details.

Agents usually have a lot of low-level staff to do that:

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Lol? You value strikeouts over actual production? You don’t care if a guy gives up a lot of extra base hits as long as he strikes guys out? That’s crazy

 

I don't think ERA is a great indicator of production. Yeah, if a guy is going to give up an extra base hit I'd prefer he can strike out the next guy. 

 

Archer's adjusted values are much better than average.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Lol? You value strikeouts over actual production? You don’t care if a guy gives up a lot of extra base hits as long as he strikes guys out? That’s crazy

 

What we've learned in the last few years....is that ERA is dependent on a lot of things out of the pitcher's control. It isn't necessarily as predictive as we used ot think. It is not useless....I am not saying that....I'm saying that defense and luck play a much larger role in ERA than we used to believe. Some believe that Archer would have better defense here, and if his luck changes, he is more of a 2 than a 3.

 

Oh, and a 3 is incredibly valuable....especially with that low pay. Way valuable.

[AZTwin]

I don't think ERA is a great indicator of production. Yeah, if a guy is going to give up an extra base hit I'd prefer he can strike out the next guy.

 

Archer's adjusted values are much better than average.

What about WHIP? 1.2 WHIP is awful...

[RedBull34]

 

What about WHIP? 1.2 WHIP is awful...

That's 28th last year, so I definetly wouldn't say awful.  He is a fly-ball pitcher though, his GB rate has been in the 40's his whole MLB career.

 

I'm more concerned about HR's.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+pitching&game_type='R'&season=2017&season_type=ANY&league_code='MLB'&sectionType=sp&statType=pitching&page=1&ts=1518114859393&sortColumn=whip&sortOrder='asc'&extended=0 

[amjgt]

 

I don't think ERA is a great indicator of production. Yeah, if a guy is going to give up an extra base hit I'd prefer he can strike out the next guy. 

 

Archer's adjusted values are much better than average.

 

11th in XFIP last year:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,a

 

5th the year before:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,a

[amjgt]

and for good measure.... 

 

8th in 2015

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,a

[amjgt]

Interestingly, right above Archer for 2015-2017 Cumulative XFIP.... Michael Pineda

[spanman2]

 

If the Twins were able to sign Darvish I’d go hard after Archer too. Instant rotation of a contender! Giving up Kepler is tough though. Good all around player with, I think, significantly more to come with the bat.

I'm a big fan of Kepler.  I do think he will figure out LH pitching sooner rather than later.  When he does look out as you have yourself a very very good player.  Also like Archer.  Would certainly be a tough call giving up Kepler as you stated.  Would be interesting to see a realistic hypo for what TB would want/what we would be willing to give up in return for Archer.  As far as Darvish is concerned 5 years is the max I would offer.  My gut tells me he isn't going to get 6 years AND they type of per year money he is looking for.  I think he has to be happy with a 5 year deal.  WIN TWINS!

[RedBull34]

I'll grant that I do not believe Archer is an Ace, although I understand he is beloved by the Statheads.

 

I think he's better then his ERA but probably worse then his peripharels.

 

I view him as a #2.  

 

I'd probably rather have Darvish.

[amjgt]

I just don't see why Tampa would want Kepler in an Archer deal. They both have 4 years of team control left. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I just don't see why Tampa would want Kepler in an Archer deal. They both have 4 years of team control left. 

 

well, it would be Kepler and 2-3 more players....not just Kepler. Also, they have 2-3 SP prospects people love, on the verge of the majors, they need more hitters. Not saying they'd do it....but if you like Kepler a lot, and you can get 2-3 more players you believe in.....no one is saying 1:1 for Kepler, and I don't think anyone is saying TB is punting right now either. 

[ahart10]

Kepler+Gordon+Littel—> Tampa Bay

Archer+Span—> Minnesota?

[ahart10]

I feel like if Kepler is in the trade Span makes a natural replacement for him with the Twins while lowering the prospect cost due to Spans money.