Twins Give Darvish a Formal Offer

[BHtwins]

 

If you're Falvey, at what point do you walk away from Darvish?

 

I may have done it already. If he's going to drag his feet for this long because he so badly wants the Dodgers to enter the competition, he can **** straight off. I want him on the team but not badly enough to let this drag into the week before pitchers and catchers report.

 

I hope Falvey and Levine have told him the offer comes off the table in the near future (say, Monday).

I agree with this sentiment.  I really feel like the Darvish camps wish-casting that the Dodgers were going to miraculously shed enough salary to re-sign him as led to this debacle of free agency this winter.

 

I'd be worried that a 5 or 6 year commitment to someone who doesn't seem like he wants to come here could end really badly for the Twins

[rdehring]

 

So the 7.7 WAR from the 3 years before don't count, what happened last year that was different? I truly don't know,

Trading guys that the odds say won't make the majors for a 27 year old starter with 126 games started and a career ERA of 3.83 seems about the right price to me, unless of course he was healthy and his velocity dropped and other similar things.

Would I rather have Archer or one of the Mets starter or some other high end guy, absolutely but it seems we aren't willing to pay the asking price for them.

Is Odorizzi a decent pitcher, yes.  Does he merit a potential superstar...probably not.  Does he merit three potential superstars...no way.  Think Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton.  Javier and Baddoo could develop into those two players.  You wouldn't have traded Sano or Buxton for a decent pitcher.  

[Riverbrian]

 

If you're Falvey, at what point do you walk away from Darvish?

 

I may have done it already. If he's going to drag his feet for this long because he so badly wants the Dodgers to enter the competition, he can **** straight off. I want him on the team but not badly enough to let this drag into the week before pitchers and catchers report.

 

I hope Falvey and Levine have told him the offer comes off the table in the near future (say, Monday).

 

It depends on if you have a solid Plan B. 

 

If you got a solid achievable Plan B. Make the offer and put a clock on it. 

 

If it is Darvish or Bust... Gotta wait it out. 

 

I have no idea what has been offered and how it compares to everyone else... but... If they are not clearly higher than the competition for him. They ain't trying hard enough... IMO. If they ain't trying hard enough... the deadline will pass with nothing accomplished. 

 

[Guest]

If you're Falvey, at what point do you walk away from Darvish?

 

I may have done it already. If he's going to drag his feet for this long because he so badly wants the Dodgers to enter the competition, he can **** straight off. I want him on the team but not badly enough to let this drag into the week before pitchers and catchers report.

 

I hope Falvey and Levine have told him the offer comes off the table in the near future (say, Monday).

There’s some poker involved. If teams leave the bidding, a new team, such as the Yankees, could enter late and get Darvish cheap.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I am starting to dread that the only pitchers we will sign are Chris Tillman or Jamie Garcia. I get the Twins are “all in” on Darvish but if he refuses to come here we need to go after Arrieta, Lynn, and Cobb before they are gone. I know Arrieta looks like a pitcher in decline, but he’d still be better than the options we have now, same goes for Lynn and Cobb. With Santana’s injury now is not the off season to not land a quality starter. To be honest if Darvish has said “no” to all our offers let’s move on to Arrieta, Lynn, and Cobb before SOMEONE ELSE signs them. I’d be okay if we can get Archer, problem is Tampa might want more in return than we can afford to give up at this time. I just don’t want us getting the cheapest option when we should easily be able to at least sign 1 of the top 4 pitching free agents.

[Mr. Brooks]

wow... Ordozzi certainly isn't the sexy name that Archer is, but the guy maintains a sub 4 ERA with a high K rate against an offense first division with two years of control left. I certainly wouldn't give up Kepler, Romero, and Gordon for him, but he's not worthless.

And I don't think that ERA is sustainable. I don't want to be the guy buying stocks right before the correction.

Perhaps he'll be one of those guys destined to outperform his FIP. Ok, then I'd be wrong. But, that's my opinion at this time.

[Squirrel]

 

If you're Falvey, at what point do you walk away from Darvish?

 

I may have done it already. If he's going to drag his feet for this long because he so badly wants the Dodgers to enter the competition, he can **** straight off. I want him on the team but not badly enough to let this drag into the week before pitchers and catchers report.

 

I hope Falvey and Levine have told him the offer comes off the table in the near future (say, Monday).

I've said this before but, imo, the problem here is Darvish more than anything else. He doesn't like/want what's been offered and is waiting or trying to get other teams into bidding for him and no one is budging. I really don't think he has any leverage now. He's shown his cards, and not for the good. If he wants LA so badly, what is their motivation for offering him more? The 'big spenders' are either waiting for next year and/or can't shed the salary they need to this year. If those teams were serious about getting him on their team, they'd have done it by now. At this point it just seems that Yu wanted something and someone very specific and doesn't want to take anything/anyone else. I'm at the point, well, I was at that point a while ago, that I don't want someone here that doesn't want to be here. I worry that it will lead to a 'not very cohesive' team when one of the members just doesn't want to be a part of the team.

[AWOLNATION_11]

I just can't imagine that if the Rays make Archer truly available that the Twins make the offer that gets it done. 

[GP830]

I have enough trust in Falvey and Levine to know to get out if they get an inkling that they aren't actually involved. At some point it would be embarassing for them to continue to wait around for an answer if they didn't think there was some legit mutual interest. For the sake of their future relationships with agents, they won't be just hanging around hoping he falls to them-- my sense is there is legit continued interest. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I've said this before but, imo, the problem here is Darvish more than anything else. He doesn't like/want what's been offered and is waiting or trying to get other teams into bidding for him and no one is budging. I really don't think he has any leverage now. He's shown his cards, and not for the good. If he wants LA so badly, what is their motivation for offering him more? The 'big spenders' are either waiting for next year and/or can't shed the salary they need to this year. If those teams were serious about getting him on their team, they'd have done it by now. At this point it just seems that Yu wanted something and someone very specific and doesn't want to take anything/anyone else. I'm at the point, well, I was at that point a while ago, that I don't want someone here that doesn't want to be here. I worry that it will lead to a 'not very cohesive' team when one of the members just doesn't want to be a part of the team.

Yeah. I was pretty forgiving of Darvish's holdout because who wouldn't hold out for a better deal?

 

But holding out for a month is one thing. Holding out until pitchers and catchers report is something else.

 

If the Twins are confident they have the best offer on the table, they should give a deadline. If they want to sweeten the deal (say $1m extra per season) and put in a hard deadline, so be it.

 

But Darvish can't hold the entire free agent market hostage. If he's still dragging his feet after sweetening the pot, go sign someone else and get on with it.

[ahart10]

Give Darvish and Arrieta 1/30, using the $50 million check every team gets this year. If it’s not going well both can be traded at the deadline. Twins would lose a pick for signing Arrieta but would recoup in a trade or a pick next year.

Maybe offer JDM 1/25 too.

[Don Walcott]

I think we need to be careful about impugning Darvish's character based on how the most important negotiation of his life is progressing. I would suspect that he has a good agent. A good agent will call the shots on how to get his client the most money.

 

Maybe his agents want LA, NY, Chicago, because they believe that over the next 5 years he's more likely to make more money (especially on the side) and have more success with these clubs. Maybe they are weighing that with getting more in salary from MN or Mil. Maybe they are frustrated like all other agents out there seem to be, and they're playing hard ball (more than their client is right now).

 

If we sign Darvish, I am not the least bit worried about his attitude. He'll probably be happy this is all over, and he can start making money on the contract of his lifetime and start doing what he does best for his new team.

[ewen21]

Darvish is not in a position of strength and he doesn't even realize it.  The publicized offer he turned down is about as good as he is going to get now.  I would not be surprised that if this carries out into next week the offers get pulled off the table.  This is a case of a player who thinks he should get a lot more than the market values him.  

[BHtwins]

 

I think we need to be careful about impugning Darvish's character based on how the most important negotiation of his life is progressing. I would suspect that he has a good agent. A good agent will call the shots on how to get his client the most money.

 

Maybe his agents want LA, NY, Chicago, because they believe that over the next 5 years he's more likely to make more money (especially on the side) and have more success with these clubs. Maybe they are weighing that with getting more in salary from MN or Mil. Maybe they are frustrated like all other agents out there seem to be, and they're playing hard ball (more than their client is right now).

 

If we sign Darvish, I am not the least bit worried about his attitude. He'll probably be happy this is all over, and he can start making money on the contract of his lifetime and start doing what he does best for his new team.

I'm not trying to impugn his character, I truly believe he is getting bad advice or getting strung along by the Dodgers.  Either way, Id say the evidence is pretty clear that signing here isn't on his wish list unless it come with truckloads of cash.

[DaveW]

I don't see why people are trashing Darvish for turning down a weak offer.....5/110 is weak, very weak.

Twins should just step up and offer 5/125 and call it a day, that would be a great deal for them. I just hope we don't get too cute and go into the season with the current rotation we have, we would be lucky to still be 'in the hunt' by the time Santana is back.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think we need to be careful about impugning Darvish's character based on how the most important negotiation of his life is progressing. I would suspect that he has a good agent. A good agent will call the shots on how to get his client the most money.

I'm not impugning his character, I'm just saying he crawled out too far on the branch. Make him an offer, give him a deadline, and be prepared to walk away if he doesn't accept.

 

I have nothing against the guy but he's creating a very difficult situation for a handful of teams and a handful of free agents.

 

And while Darvish is a very good pitcher, he's not Clayton Kershaw.

[DaveW]

 

Darvish is not in a position of strength and he doesn't even realize it.  The publicized offer he turned down is about as good as he is going to get now.  I would not be surprised that if this carries out into next week the offers get pulled off the table.  This is a case of a player who thinks he should get a lot more than the market values him.  

Darvish is the top SP on the market, teams aren't going to just pull offers because it drags on another week.

[DaveW]

 

I'm not impugning his character, I'm just saying he crawled out too far on the branch. Make him an offer, give him a deadline, and be prepared to walk away if he doesn't accept.

 

I have nothing against the guy but he's creating a very difficult situation for a handful of teams and a handful of free agents.

 

And while Darvish is a very good pitcher, he's not Clayton Kershaw.

What branch? By all accounts most teams didn't make him an offer until very recently, nothing prevented the Twins (OR NOBODY ELSE) from making him or any other top FA an offer until the last minute.

IMO the Twins and the other teams have put themselves in this mess themselves with their (collusion?) with this FA class.

Darvish doesn't owe the Twins or any other team anything, especially if they are all low balling him at the moment.

[Don Walcott]

 

I'm not impugning his character, I'm just saying he crawled out too far on the branch. Make him an offer, give him a deadline, and be prepared to walk away if he doesn't accept.

 

I have nothing against the guy but he's creating a very difficult situation for a handful of teams and a handful of free agents.

 

And while Darvish is a very good pitcher, he's not Clayton Kershaw.

We don't know what Darvish's position is on all of this. He might really want to start playing for the Twins yesterday, for all we know. So unless and until we get some solid information on it, I would still prefer to view this as a negotiation that is primarily between the Twins FO and Darvish's agents. If he's a good client, he's listening to his well paid professional agents. And I'll wait until this all plays out before i criticize how his agents have handled this.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What branch? By all accounts most teams didn't make him an offer until very recently, nothing prevented the Twins (OR NOBODY ELSE) from making him or any other top FA an offer until the last minute.

IMO the Twins and the other teams have put themselves in this mess themselves with their (collusion?) with this FA class.

Darvish doesn't owe the Twins or any other team anything, especially if they are all low balling him at the moment.

I don't think collusion is involved but it's always a possibility in this sport. I think what we're seeing is a correction; sports salaries can't continue to grow at the rate they've been growing for the past couple of decades.

 

I agree that 5/$110m seems a little light for Darvish but not irrationally so. He's a very good pitcher but hasn't strung together dominant full seasons. Sure, he's just as likely to be healthy as any other pitcher his age but I think that's the sticking point: his age. I believe teams are starting to rethink how they offer contracts to players - particularly pitchers - into their late 30s. I think this market is analytics-driven and we'll see this issue continue as the market reestablishes itself. That doesn't mean contracts will freeze but I suspect free agency contract growth won't be what it once was.

 

Couple that with the big players bowing out this year to reset their payroll taxes and Darvish is angling for a contract he's probably not going to get.

 

With that said, I wouldn't think too long or too hard about giving Darvish 5/$125m and calling it a day. But, as I've mentioned, I'd give him a deadline along with the offer because enough is enough.

[DaveW]

 

I don't think collusion is involved 

I'd suggest not giving sports owners (who have proven time and time again to be some of the worst humans on earth) the benefit of the doubt.

Yeah, salaries are rising, but owners are making more and more and more and more and more money then they ever have before.

[DaveW]

 

 But, as I've mentioned, I'd give him a deadline along with the offer because enough is enough.

Dude, didn't the Twins literally make this offer like 2-3 days ago? Or am I missing something?

You act like they gave him an offer 2 months ago and haven't been able to pursue any other FA this whole time and is holding them hostage.

Nothing prevents the Twins from signing or trading for another impact pitcher and then pulling the offer anyways...but I'm guessing they aren't really in the market for anybody else, nor have they been linked to any real game changer. Reed was a nice pick up no doubt, but if he and Rodney are the only 'real' moves this off-season? Color me unimpressed.

[ewen21]

 

What branch? By all accounts most teams didn't make him an offer until very recently, nothing prevented the Twins (OR NOBODY ELSE) from making him or any other top FA an offer until the last minute.

IMO the Twins and the other teams have put themselves in this mess themselves with their (collusion?) with this FA class.

Darvish doesn't owe the Twins or any other team anything, especially if they are all low balling him at the moment.

No one made him an offer because he was talking Strasburg money.   Not sure where he commands anything in nine figures guaranteed.  Makes no sense.

[Mr. Brooks]

But I bet you were happy when the Twins acquired Jaime Garcia last season.

Not sure, I'd have to go back and check.

But, Garcia is/was a drastically better bet than Odorizzi. Career FIP 2/3 of a run better than Odorizzi.

[ahart10]

I think the FO has done a really good job this offseason. Looking at all the free agent signings, Pineda and Reed are the two best deals league wide as of yet. Rodney is a fine deal, and Duke has real potential.

The Twins are still in the markets, both trade and free agency, for big additions to their weakest link. By the time this all plays out we’ll get one of Darvish, Lynn, Cobb, Arrieta, or Archer, optimistically.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think the FO has done a really good job this offseason. Looking at all the free agent signings, Pineda and Reed are the two best deals league wide as of yet. Rodney is a fine deal, and Duke has real potential.

The Twins are still in the markets, both trade and free agency, for big additions to their weakest link. By the time this all plays out we’ll get one of Darvish, Lynn, Cobb, Arrieta, or Archer, optimistically.

I'd put the Todd Frazier signing ahead of those.

These are his bWAR totals the last 4 years:

2017:3.4

16: 3.4

15: 4.0

14: 5.3

 

He's a remarkably consistent 3.5-5 WAR player, and was picked up for 2/17. I wish the Twins would have been in on that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'd suggest not giving sports owners (who have proven time and time again to be some of the worst humans on earth) the benefit of the doubt.

It's not that I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt, it's that I try to refrain from making accusations without evidence.

[twinsfanstreif]

I don't see why people are trashing Darvish for turning down a weak offer.....5/110 is weak, very weak.

Twins should just step up and offer 5/125 and call it a day, that would be a great deal for them. I just hope we don't get too cute and go into the season with the current rotation we have, we would be lucky to still be 'in the hunt' by the time Santana is back.

 

I will take 5 years 110 million please! In fact, I will take much less than that

[ashbury]

I will take 5 years 110 million please! In fact, I will take much less than that

I wouldn't. The standard contract contains language pertaining to ability to perform at minimal levels that I would be in violation of from Day 1.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I will take 5 years 110 million please! In fact, I will take much less than that

5/85 or the Twins look elsewhere