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BHtwins

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Everything posted by BHtwins

  1. BHtwins
    Shrink their roster from 40 to 35 and let the other teams in their division expand theirs to 41 for a minimum of 2 years. It has some ring of restoring some balance to the division teams that were most harmed by this and it will have some long term competitive effect on their franchise. It will hurt.
  2. BHtwins
    I'm not trying to impugn his character, I truly believe he is getting bad advice or getting strung along by the Dodgers. Either way, Id say the evidence is pretty clear that signing here isn't on his wish list unless it come with truckloads of cash.
  3. BHtwins
    I agree with this sentiment. I really feel like the Darvish camps wish-casting that the Dodgers were going to miraculously shed enough salary to re-sign him as led to this debacle of free agency this winter. I'd be worried that a 5 or 6 year commitment to someone who doesn't seem like he wants to come here could end really badly for the Twins
  4. BHtwins
    I read the Heyman note as there are two firm offers and Darvish agent is still trying to open it up with Cubs, Dodgers, Cardinals whoever. It's a smoke signal that they are still hoping someone/anyone besides the Brewers and Twins come knocking. From my perspective I think its pretty clear that Darvish doesn't want to come here too bad or a deal would have been done by now.
  5. BHtwins
    I think Darvish deal is holding everything else back. Both the players and the owners are waiting for Darvish to set the market for the top 10 free agents to slot into. Darvish is waiting for a miracle so he can re-sign with the Dodgers. Once that falls through and he signs a deal, the rest will sign within a few days. No one is willing to risk spending too much or leaving money on the table. I'd bet all of the remaining top 10 have offers on the table they are unwilling to sign for that fear. Owners aren't moving off their initial offers and players aren't willing to sign the first deal offered until Darvish is off the table.
  6. BHtwins
    Brian Dozier = Lew Ford. All Star caliber until pitchers have him pegged. God-awful until he is released. Never makes the adjustment to prolong his career. Eerily similar plate styles, neither proved willing or able to adjust their approach. Lew never got *this* bad but I suspect if defensive shifts were around 12 years ago he would have.
  7. BHtwins
    There is so much bad, its almost unwatchable. Almost as bad as the late 90's teams The complete lack of pressure they put on he opposing pitcher is killing them. Dozier is below the Mendoza line. He is just flailing away at this point, His DP yesterday just about had be throwing the remote through the TV. Plouffe is his ever streaky self. I'm not sure he has much different then the last few years. Mauer is flailing at this point too. He used to at least look professional. I know this is just cliché and there is no data, but god it looks like none of them give a crap whether they win or lose.
  8. BHtwins
    He has an awful lot of Lew Ford in him. Lew's first 200 ABS were like..almost MVP level. His next 700ish were solid above average MLB CF...then he slowly drifted into oblivion. Lew's age 27 season he had 4.5 WAR and finished 24 in AL MVP. Dozier's age 27 season he had a 5.2 WAR and finished 28th in AL MVP Now, Dozier is a better defender at a more valuable position. His first 200 abs weren't as good as Lew's but he has been better for longer. The thing that drives it home thinking back is how remarkably similar they were on their penchant for pull power and having tremendous bat speed.
  9. BHtwins
    I think he is what he is at this point....perhaps admitting he is having vision issues or the sunglasses helps. Its not going to be some dramatic rebound...or sudden increase in power. What I do think can make the difference between a .720 OPS and a .760 OPS is what the line-up does around him. If he bats second and if Dozier gets on enough that constantly playing the extreme shift becomes dangerous and if Park and Sano behind him are a consistent threat that they actually have to pitch Mauer straight up...it could push to the higher end of these projections .285/.356/.392
  10. BHtwins
    Plouffe and Hunter both got horribly screwed by Bucknor. Im sure Plouffe had no idea what to swing at and what to take by his 3rd at bat. Do they have a history?
  11. BHtwins
    2 things on last night and actually his last two starts. I thought he got squeezed last night a little bit. If the ump gives him 2 or 3 of those borderline away calls I think it makes all the difference in the world in how the game ends up. Also, Suzuki does him no favors at all. He doesn't frame well. A great catcher gets a couple of those calls for his pitcher. I also question all the away away away pitches against lefties who are damn near standing on the plate. You make a mistake and they crush them.
  12. BHtwins
    #5 in dWAR and #1 in total WAR In all of MLB among 3B now. Wonder if he will get any all-star love....
  13. BHtwins
    Last pitch to PLouffe was a foot and a half outside. How in the world is that a strike.
  14. BHtwins
    Let's see.... Joe Mauer career .871 OPS Doug M Career .760 OPS Yeah...about the same...
  15. BHtwins
    Someone asked earlier in the thread if there was any criticism that was legitimate. There is one, it may have been brought it up, but I didnt see it. Mauer's GIDP rate is probably higher then a hitter of his caliber should be. It does effect his offensive value and I think its one area of pretty legitimate concern,
  16. BHtwins
    Of course EVERY hitter lets hittable pitches go by. They guessed wrong, a mosquito buzzed their ear, they blinked. The point is that good hitters dont swing at crap. They liklihood that Mauer hits a first pitch strike hard somewhere is better then a poor hitter but that doesnt mean he is going to catch every meatball. Again....the issue has been looked at. Nothing your saying works out objectively when it is. /moderator action, inflammatory remark removed
  17. BHtwins
    It does not and I will say again the issue has been looked at objectively and there is no correlation to an improvement in offensive value by doing so. Even if he was a .400 hitter in every situation, swinging at 50% more often on first pitches the difference would be microscopic. There is very strong possibility, as in almost 100%, that if he did swing more often on 0-0 counts then he currently does that his OPS would drop to closer to his norm. Regression.....if it continued trending he would likely, as in almost 100%, hit worse then his current career norm. So...yeah about as much good as adjusting his cup. He hits well on 0-0 counts because he only swings when its a pitch he can do something with
  18. BHtwins
    Those stats are created to measure HOF likliehood. Of the top 10 in WAR7 all are in the HOF or will be. Of the top 12 in JAWS only Thurmon Munson isnt or wont be and that has more to do with his general nastiness as a person and he died just prior to where Mauer is in his career. Thats what the stats try do...not guesswork....not subjectivity but who is actually in the HOF to work backward to who is worthy. So...yeah... objectivity trumps BS every single time
  19. BHtwins
    No it really is about that irrelevant. There is absolutely 0 data that suggest any meaningful correlation and the issue has been studied long ago. What they have found is that the best hitters have outstanding stats when swinging at 0-0 pitches but its because they ONLY swing at 0-0 when its a strong hittable pitch. Joe Mauer fits that mold perfectly with his 1.015 OPS on 0-0 counts. There is absolutely no strong objective evidence that swinging more on 0-0 will improve offensive performance one iota. When you post some, I will revisit my view on this issue. Until then....yeah....same as adjusting his cup
  20. BHtwins
    Sure, but where did I ever say that? By all mean bitch all you want but when your criticizing a legitimate hall of famer it better have some meat I said complaining about not swinging at first pitches is about as relevant as adjusting your cup. Most other complaints in this thread enter the same realm.
  21. BHtwins
    You have not only a probable hall of famer and probably one of the 5-8 greatest catchers to play the game EVER on your favorite team and people are complaining consistently about his plate approach. Thats the equivalent in relevancy of bitching because he adjusts his cup in the batters box. In fact one poster said that they would give him away in a salary dump I'm sorry but I find half the "complaints" in this thread to be preposterous. Again, too much time talking about meaningless crap and not enough time talking about his career .405 OBP
  22. BHtwins
    I found some things shocking when I looked around because of this thread. Mauer's WAR7 is freaking 5th EVER among catchers. Thats Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, Ivan Rodriguz kind of rarified air. Also his JAWS score is 13th RIGHT NOW and the only one even close career-wise at 1180ish games and 11 seasons is Thurmon Munson. In my opinion, he just has to perform marginally well for a few seasons regardless of position and he almost is a hall of fame shoo-in. Of course, he might make the baseball hall of fame in Cooperstown but he apparantly wont make the Twins fans hall of fame because he didnt swing enough at first pitches.
  23. BHtwins
    I'll double down on my relatively unsophisticated fan base comment. If this kind of insanity exists among what is supposedly the elite of the Twins fan base then for his sake I hope he does get traded to fan base that greater appreciates his talent set. (and a team that didnt waste them) I'll paraphrase Bill James. People are spending too much talking about his lack of swinging at the first pitch and not enough time talking about his career .405 OBP.
  24. BHtwins
    There is so much crazy and dumb in this thread its impossible to respond. One thing I will say. If you have an elite hitter who catches at a gold glove level....its high octane baseball stupidity to force him into another position until you have too. Whichever, person suggested the all the good hitting catchers are moved to get them more at bats doesnt get it. While that has happened....in every case it was mostly because they sucked at catching. Joe Mauer does not suck at catching. Moving him off his natural position early would have been criminally dumb
  25. BHtwins
    I'm not sure if it was this thread or another Mauer hall of fame thread but some seem to be complaining he "walks too much" to get 3000 hits as somewhat of an argument as to why he isnt a hall of famer. Well...neither did mickey mantle...hell babe ruth didnt. Are they still hall of famers? you know how many primary catchers *do* have 3000 hits. Its this kind of insane expectation that makes Mauer a target for criticism. I'll say it again. He is one of the 5-8 best catchers of all time. Has in ever. There are 16 total in the hall and he is in the top half of that. His offensive value is largely in his ability to not make outs. If he was used correctly and if he was in a somewhat decent lineup in his career he would have regularly appeared at the top of the runs scored list. That he didnt is not his fault.
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