BHtwins

I dont like Souhans columns because...he isnt a very good writer. The difference between the golden age of sportswriters and him is that...when they used humor, colorful language and metaphors they were funny and interesting...he is hokey and flat. Oddly, when I've heard him on the radio or seen him on FSN he is not too bad. His columns, on the other hand, are painful like a root canal. I cant and wont suffer through them. He tries to be Rick Reilly and even the real version of Rick Reilly grates my nerves let alone a cheap knockoff.

Bottom line is a strong GM does not make organizational changes at the behest of the game manager. There is strong circumstanial evidence that Terry Ryan quite often does the opposite of what Gardy wants and has going way back. If Bill Smith did make changes that dramatic at the game managers request....then its a Bill Smith problem not a Gardy problem. I say that as someone who cant stand Gardy The four other pitchers (Bonser, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins) had nowhere near the hype and the potential ace status of Garza. They all had problems

It was a horrid deal at the time. An awful lot of people thought Delmon was a head case and damaged goods before the Twins traded for him. Garzas MiLB and beginning big league numbers pointed to a solid 2-3 starter and Bartlett was a potential long-term solution at shortstop. All these was compounded when we gave Young away for a bag of balls a few years later. This deal plus the Johan disaster, plus Ramos for Capps, plus giving up Hardy for nothing are the reasons this franchise is the worst in baseball right now. All horrible moves at the time and made even worse in hindsight.

I always like Lew Ford. He was a plus defender, great base stealer, walked a bit, hit for power....and then the wheels came off. Always wondered if the "Twins Way" wrecked him. When he came up.....he had this great bat speed, could turn on just about any pitch. By his 3rd season he wasnt walking anymore and he was smashing everything into the ground.

"But in REAL baseball, the only time that positional scarcity actually matters in the overall production of your lineup is when you believe you have a lineup so deep and dominant that you have the ability to "stuff" in a productive hitter at positions where most teams are employing scrubs. Some good examples of this would be like Jorge Posada on the Yankees, or Allen Craig playing second base for the Cardinals because Berkman, Beltran, and Holliday are blocking his other positions. " You know how completely inane that sounds? Positional scarcity exists is REAL baseball and its a side effect in fantasy baseball. The Twins do not use their assets wisely. If you can find a guy that can catch everyday with a .400 + OBP, a smart GM would spend his free agent dollars on corner outfielders, and 1b/dh types where offensive production is relatively cheap. That the Twins didnt...again not Mauers fault. There is way more Willinghams to be had then Mauers....therefore cheaper.

Not a very big Bob Nightengale fan, mostly think he is an opinionated ass so I dont really care if his opinion is Mauer is overpaid. Mauer still is an above average catcher by most metrics and the reason as far as I can tell he hasnt started at catcher as much is why, when a measurable portion of your roster is made up of catchers would you risk your best player to catch everyday. Again, not Mauers fault that the Twins use their resources like **** and Morneau is hurt. The reason Mauer is boo'd is the same reason Ted Williams was boo'd. That is that their expectactions are wildly out of control and the average casual baseball fan is an idiot on judging the value of a player. As it is, if Mauer last 4 to 5 more years catching regularly he is almost certainly a hall of famer and probably one of the top 5 catchers of all-time.

Mauer's contract is about affensive production at defensive scarcity. How many other catchers on that list of #3 hitter sparky? It wasnt a bad deal then and its still really not that bad of a deal. Not Mauers fault he isnt catching much thus far.

Bad thing happen when you don't miss bats. Capps doesnt miss and has never missed enough bats to be an elite closer/relief pitcher. Call me a seamhead. Get ready for a lot of angst filled 9th innings because this stuff is gonna continue to happen opportunity after opportunity if his K/9 doesnt get better.

Not understanding positional scarcity is to not understand baseball. That is kind of a basic principal that is both old school and new school. No matter how you measure it, a 2nd baseman who hits 30 homeruns is rarer and thus more valuable then a 1st baseman who hits 30 homeruns. Mauer to be a 23 million a year player has to catch a significant number of games. Catchers with Mauers offensive numbers are rare, a couple per era rare, thus have the high positional multiplier and the higher value WAR isnt mythical. Its completely objective. You cant cheat the formula. Replacement level players are not arbitrary. They are -2.5 Wins in the AL OPS is a nice quick dirty way to figure offensive value. It has its uses but it undervalues OBP which in turn overvalues slugging.

A large chunk of Joe Mauers offense value is positional scarcity. Has a catcher of his best 5 comps 4 are Hall of Famers or certain hall of famers. His last 3 best by age comps are hall of famers. If he catches regularly through age 32 or 33 he will almost certainly be in the discussion. If he doesnt he probably wont unless his offensive numbers rise significantly In other words, has a catcher he is probably underpaid, has a 1b or DH he is kinda ho hum.

Put me in the club that says Liriano didnt look that bad. He threw a lot of pitches but I thought the strike zone was a bit tight and the real reason was is his defense was putrid. I think Valencia in particular has looked listless and uninspired and Willingham has just looked clueless. I dont see how in the world he could be worse in right. Valencia missed 2 of 3 2 out hits that were playable, not easy but not impossible and he hardly moved. Willingham cost another earned run and 1 unearned one.Uninspired and poor play is not fun to watch. You dont have to win 100 games to be interesting...but that effort last night was painful.

Grant Balfour, Francisco Liriano, Pat Neshek, Kyle Gibson, Zumaya to a lesser extent, now maybe Baker?? all misdiagnosed or slow diagnosed I really dont think the track record is particularly good.

Im sorry that you simply dont understand. I certainly didnt intend to stir the pot. Perhaps I explained badly but regardless you're way overstating the importance of single plays in a 27 out/ 9 inning game and 162 game season If the Johnson pinch hit opportunity comes 4000 times. The statistical reality is if Maddon does nothing 1000 times the Rays lose 960 times. If Maddon pinch hits Johnson 1000 times the Rays lose 958 times. If Maddon pinch hits any other available hitter on his roster 1000 times the Rays lose 960 times. If Maddon pinch hits Babe Ruth 1000 times the Rays lose 940 times. That it happened doesnt make Maddon a managerial genius, it makes him mostly lucky and kinda smart. Everything else in your post is along the same lines. Defensive shifts, for example, are largely intuitive to the fielder anyway and I doubt it has any real affect that unique to the manager. I also cant believe playing every batter all season straight up would be worth more then a handful runs over an entire season, I'd say its effect is almost nil. Is it worth doing.....sure....but to say it turns a .500 team to a contender is simply not true. Same for hit and runs. Over the course of the season it probably has a net negative effect on runs scored unless you have a rosterful of Joe Mauers that GIDP a lot and can make contact on demand. In other words, better off sitting on your hands. Is it fun to watch sometimes....well sure. I guess more then anything the meaning of the post is that what happens between the games is a lot more important then what happens from the first pitch to the last out.

Nope. Thats not what Im saying at all. I'm saying it was dumb luck not managerial prowess. I dont understand the whole idea that baseball "strategy" is sacred. What I am saying is that true game-changing managerial opportunities dont happen that often and the difference between making a good decision, a bad decision, a lucky decision or doing nothing at all is the difference between 2 games over .500 or 2 games under .500 at the end of the year. I would guess thats at the extremes.

and at the end of 162 games sans pitching moves i doubt it made 2 games one way or the other in the final season outcome. Almost all decisions whether its to bunt, or pinch hit or steal or hit and run are dumb or meaningless or both. You make a boneheaded decision and you lose a game you woulda lost anyway. You make a crazy like a fox move and win a game you probably woulda won anyway. Thats the reality.

From an "x's and o's" standpoint, from the time the lineup card is written until the end of the game, there isnt probably 2 wins difference between the decisions the AL manager of the year makes and what the worst record manager in rookie ball makes. All baseball guys make the same decisions and most of them if not meaningless are all but. Take out pitching changes and every other in-game decision an AL manager makes is basically window dressing. I put baseball managers in the same category as college football coaches. Meaning, they are basically recruiters and motivators mostly. Saying that, I'd suspect Gardy is probably a relatively good motivator given his career record. Which is a good thing because his batting orders and line-up cards are probably the single biggest weak point he has and has probably cost him at least one division title. So most annoying thing. Someone needs to tell Gardy that he doesnt have to bat a speedy outfielder or a middle fielder 1 or 2. There is no rule in baseball that would prevent him from batting someone like....say a catcher...with a really high OBP in the number 2 slot and then just leave him there all season long. Number 2 most annoying He is obsessed with the potential for an opposing platoon advantage when he sets his batting order but all but oblivious when he actually writes the line-up card