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Article: What Happens if the Twins Can't Sign Yu Darvish?


Tom Froemming
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Doesn't signing a pitcher to a longer deal help next year too?

Not nearly as likely.

 

Look at recent large contracts for pitchers in Cueto, Samardzija, Sanchez and Zimmerman. All had very significant drop offs in year 2 of the contract.

 

If 2019 is the target to truly contend rather than be competitive then it is far better to sign that pitcher next off season. In a blog 3 years ago when we could still use tables I listed several signings and how they aged through their 4 year contracts. Year 1 was so much better overall than years 2, 3 and 4.

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Year one being better doesn't mean year two is bad. They won't be winning any bidding wars next year on Kershaw our other elite talents, the big spenders are under the tax threshold this year for a reason. They are also very unlikely to sign two really good pitchers in any one off season. Passing this year makes next year's work that much harder.

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We disagree.

 

Next year’s work will be made much easier if passing means that they find someone from within that is cost controlled and approaching league average. All of a sudden instead of committing 16-20 million a year to a pitcher declining from league average, they have a very inexpensive pitcher on the other end of the career projection and much more money in the budget to spend on that pitcher next winter. Wouldn’t that make it easier?

 

If they believe in the young group that has just entered AAA, it might be a smart risk to bank on one of them stepping forward rather than give a 4 year contract to a second or third tier free agent.

 

The long term success of the Twins relies on them developing and acquiring cost controlled starting pitching.

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Of course next year is easier if an internal candidate is good. I doubt anyone disagrees with that. That doesn't change if they sign a free agent or not.

And, they likely need two or three more pitchers next year, not one or two. If Santana regresses and no one really steps up, they might need four.

 

I like Santana a lot, but I think this is finally the year he starts to show his age. The Twins have to think about the future.

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Doesn't signing a pitcher to a longer deal help next year too?

Of course it would. I’m guessing that perhaps the FO wants to see what they have currently first. Are there 5 starters among the current ML, AAA and AA squads? If the team is competitive and needs a starter, I could see a mid- season trade.

I guess I’m just suspicious of the Pohlads and whether there is money to sign a front line starter for 2018.

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Of course it would. I’m guessing that perhaps the FO wants to see what they have currently first. Are there 5 starters among the current ML, AAA and AA squads? If the team is competitive and needs a starter, I could see a mid- season trade.

I guess I’m just suspicious of the Pohlads and whether there is money to sign a front line starter for 2018.

You think there are seven or eight starters in the system right now? We strongly disagree on that.

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You think there are seven or eight starters in the system right now? We strongly disagree on that.

Santana, Berrios, Gibson Mejia, May, Hughes, Slegers, Jorge, Gonsalves, Romero, Little and Stewart or Ens  make 12. The first 4 the team should have a pretty good idea of what they can do, good or bad. 2 are medical mysteries, Slegers is your AAAA emergency pitcher, The next 4 is the development squad that the OP would appear to be targeting as see what you have. Stewart or Ens makes it a Baker"s dozen.  If you believe that Santana will age decline, Gibson will revert to bad Kyle and Mejia is a fringe starter, the poster has a point to wait and see if you are in contention. Given the postings about Santana and Gibson, the wait and see approach is as good as any. The position is more tenable  considering the negativity towards  any FA not named Darvish

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Santana, Berrios, Gibson Mejia, May, Hughes, Slegers, Jorge, Gonsalves, Romero, Little and Stewart or Ens make 12. The first 4 the team should have a pretty good idea of what they can do, good or bad. 2 are medical mysteries, Slegers is your AAAA emergency pitcher, The next 4 is the development squad that the OP would appear to be targeting as see what you have. Stewart or Ens makes it a Baker"s dozen. If you believe that Santana will age decline, Gibson will revert to bad Kyle and Mejia is a fringe starter, the poster has a point to wait and see if you are in contention. Given the postings about Santana and Gibson, the wait and see approach is as good as any. The position is more tenable considering the negativity towards any FA not named Darvish

May and Hughes are starting the season on the DL. Can’t bank on Mejia, Gibson and Slegers to be consistent and healthy for 35 starts.

 

This team needs two pitchers from outside the organization that are mid rotation types or better to think they have any real intention of competing in the playoffs in 2018.

Edited by Sconnie
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May and Hughes are starting the season on the DL. Can’t bank on Mejia, Gibson and Slegers to be consistent and healthy for 35 starts.

This team needs two pitchers from outside the organization that are mid rotation types or better to think they have any real intention of competing in the playoffs in 2018.

When one reads the comments made by people on pitchers not named Darvish (who is neither 2 pitchers nor has pitched every fifth game for a whole season in a while) one could easily think that the team would be better off without someone else's reject.

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When one reads the comments made by people on pitchers not named Darvish (who is neither 2 pitchers nor has pitched every fifth game for a whole season in a while) one could easily think that the team would be better off without someone else's reject.

I don't believe signing free agents or making trades is acquiring a reject. I bet plenty of teams are happy they have players other teams "didn't want".

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When one reads the comments made by people on pitchers not named Darvish (who is neither 2 pitchers nor has pitched every fifth game for a whole season in a while) one could easily think that the team would be better off without someone else's reject.

i don’t think Archer, or Cobb, or Lynn or Darvish are individually a Panacea. One of them will help but not solve.

 

Personally I’d like a trade for James Paxton (maybe Gordon and Enns plus) and sign Cobb. That would take this rotation and as a biproduct the bullpen, miles ahead. With his injury history, Paxton might be had relatively inexpensively.

 

I’m of a firm belief that this team needs two starters and they can’t be acquired using the same means. Can’t both be free agents. Can’t both be trades.

Edited by Sconnie
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The Twins need to make a splash. But in the local sports scene, anything they do will be lost right now with the Vikings success and the Super Bowl mess taking up the sports time between now and spring training.

 

Maybe the Twins will make a trade. A pretty big one.

 

Or maybe they just sign a marginal rotation arm, hope everyone comes back strong, and pull off a Verlander-like acquisition mid-season (hey, they could always go after Grienke).

 

I'm sure the front office is trying to figure out longterm (a team, perhaps, without Mauer and Dozier in the future).

 

Will be an interesting TwinsFest, and WCCO air time!

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If Darvish cannot be obtained, which is highly likely, then I do not believe that stooping to Cobb or Lynn is the correct approach. On the surface, it sounds logical, why not add quality starting pitching for a more reasonable price than the big fish on the market? Well here's why: Cobb and Lynn are undoubtedly going to be overpaid by somebody this year. It's inevitable. Despite Lynn's good ERA of 3.43, his FIP was an almost-disasterous 4.82! Clearly, Lynn was the beneficiary of a lot of good luck, as his .244 BABIP would suggest. That contract has the potential to be a disaster for whoever decides to fork up the money. As for Cobb, the 2.91 K/BB is a concern, though his strikeout numbers are fairly low at just over 6 K/9, he averages more than 2 BB/9. Not disastrous, but the lack of strikeouts is undesirable. His 4.16 FIP shows the possibility for regression, though the risk is far lower than Lynn. Cobb has been considered a "almost perfectly league-average pitcher," which is not an insult. However, because it is so much easier to find below average pitching than above, it is likely that his price tag will still be much too high in relation to the value he would actually add to the team. To that end, Fangraphs, if you look into their numbers, predict the performances of Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia to be comparable to that of Lynn and Cobb. Yes, believe it or not, it is quite possible that the Twins could comparable production from those two unlikely sources for the cost of their contracts (Estimated value of $5.3M for Gibson after arbitration and league minimum $535K for Mejia) less than $6M, for similar production as opposed to, perhaps, upwards of $15M per year.

 

Jake Arrieta would be a more impactful investment, but I met Kevin Slowey a couple of months ago and he said that he doesn't think that Arrieta would consider the Twins, given that he is a Boras client. He said that Darvish is more likely.

 

Best bet, in my opinion: 

Plan A: Try to land Darvish or Arrieta

Plan B: Try to find a taker for Miguel Sano (if anyone wants him amid the reports) and get a starting pitcher in return.

Plan C: Ride it out with the kids we have coming up. As I said, the value for Gibson and Mejia may not end up being significantly different than that of Cobb or Lynn, so save the money, and roll with Berrios, Santana, Gibson, Mejia, and whoever wins the #5 job (Hughes may be the frontrunner if healthy)

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i don’t think Archer, or Cobb, or Lynn or Darvish are individually a Panacea. One of them will help but not solve.

Personally I’d like a trade for James Paxton (maybe Gordon and Enns plus) and sign Cobb. That would take this rotation and as a biproduct the bullpen, miles ahead. With his injury history, Paxton might be had relatively inexpensively.

I’m of a firm belief that this team needs two starters and they can’t be acquired using the same means. Can’t both be free agents. Can’t both be trades.

So the Twins can get a top starter with multiple years of control left from a team that looks to contend  for little of nothing.. Last week's holiday, or the holiday 4 months from now?

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I don't believe signing free agents or making trades is acquiring a reject. I bet plenty of teams are happy they have players other teams "didn't want".

Did I say anything about  making trades?    Adding words and meanings to someone's arguments.  I am sure that every team  would love to give up a top half rotation starter for Nick Gordon and a bevy of low ranked prospects

 

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So the Twins can get a top starter with multiple years of control left from a team that looks to contend for little of nothing.. Last week's holiday, or the holiday 4 months from now?

theres still 5 weeks until pitchers and catchers report. It’s a tall order, but not impossible
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Santana, Berrios, Gibson Mejia, May, Hughes, Slegers, Jorge, Gonsalves, Romero, Little and Stewart or Ens  make 12. The first 4 the team should have a pretty good idea of what they can do, good or bad. 2 are medical mysteries, Slegers is your AAAA emergency pitcher, The next 4 is the development squad that the OP would appear to be targeting as see what you have. Stewart or Ens makes it a Baker"s dozen.  If you believe that Santana will age decline, Gibson will revert to bad Kyle and Mejia is a fringe starter, the poster has a point to wait and see if you are in contention. Given the postings about Santana and Gibson, the wait and see approach is as good as any. The position is more tenable  considering the negativity towards  any FA not named Darvish

And you may have missed the best prospect of the entire group, Lewis Thorpe, although he probably won't make it to the Twin Cities until sometime in 2019.

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There is a reason the Cardinals are making no effort to resign Lynn, and I can't believe it is just $. I trust they know best.

 

A big reason is their starting pitching depth. With Carlos Martinez, Luke Weaver, Miles Mikolas, Michael Wacha, and Adam Wainwright (and Alex Reyes on the mend), there isn't room for Lynn, plus he's probably the worst out of all those pitchers. They also traded away Mike Leake late in the season, so re-signing Lynn would be strictly for gaining some expensive depth. 

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So it's Jan 1st. About a week ago I noticed on the MLB channel that last year at that time over 1.2 Billion dollars had been spent in free agents and this year when I saw that show, before the Holland signing only about 500 million had been spent.  I then just saw the 80's movie Trading Places and it occured to me that when Eddie Murphy's character was saying that he thought the prices of Pork Bellies was going to go down because the market is panicking out there, that that might be the case with this years free agents???  It might be possible to get a Cobb or a Lynn or even Darvish a little bit cheaper the longer no one signs them??  Think Kendrys Morales a few years back when he didn't get signed until like May or June??  I really don't think those guys want that, so they may be panicking a little out there.  Especially because they may have already bought their kids that GI Joe doll with the Kung Fu grip, they may want to get something done so they can get something instead of waiting around too long?? 

 

Maybe, we will have to wait and see.  I know it has been irritating me that I haven't seen much action with the Twins and a real pitcher this off season even though most of us think or know that is what they need, now I'm looking at it as this might even work out better the longer it drags out??  

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A big reason is their starting pitching depth. With Carlos Martinez, Luke Weaver, Miles Mikolas, Michael Wacha, and Adam Wainwright (and Alex Reyes on the mend), there isn't room for Lynn, plus he's probably the worst out of all those pitchers. They also traded away Mike Leake late in the season, so re-signing Lynn would be strictly for gaining some expensive depth.

 

I look forward to when the Twins don’t have a spot for a Lynn. They can’t win without developing their own pitching and making significant commitments to 60% of a rotation in Santana, Nolasco and Hughes dudnt get them closer. How many good years out of the 14 will they get from those three. So far they have 3 of 11 good seasons and a lot of bad ones.

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If Darvish doesn't sign with the Twins.

 

Trading for Greinke could be a consideration. 

 

The D-Backs would like to have money to sign JD Martinez. 

 

If the D-Backs will take Phil Hughes back in return and pay off the 12 Million left on Greinke's Signing Bonus. 

 

After you factor in the 13 Million from Hughes in 2018 and 2019 --- The Twins will be left adding:

 

2018: 18 Million 

2019: 18.5 Million

2020: 32 Million

2021: 32 Million

 

4 Years/100.5 Million for Greinke.

 

Darvish might be 6 Years/150 Million or 5 years/125 million so the AAV would be close. 

 

Greinke would possibly be a 2 year shorter commitment.

 

I have no idea... but... I assume taking on that contract would probably lower the price of the player assets needed to complete the deal significantly. 

 

The D-Backs could then take the 100 million savings and use that money to bring back JD Martinez. 

 

The Twins have that front line starter minus Phil Hughes. 

 

Darvish would be 25 million AAV plus Phil Hughes.

 

Yeah... 37 year old pitchers making 34 million will make anybody nervous but Yu Darvish will be 36 at the end of a 6 year deal and this is how much money it takes to sign a top end starter. 

 

 

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So it's Jan 1st. About a week ago I noticed on the MLB channel that last year at that time over 1.2 Billion dollars had been spent in free agents and this year when I saw that show, before the Holland signing only about 500 million had been spent.  I then just saw the 80's movie Trading Places and it occured to me that when Eddie Murphy's character was saying that he thought the prices of Pork Bellies was going to go down because the market is panicking out there, that that might be the case with this years free agents???  It might be possible to get a Cobb or a Lynn or even Darvish a little bit cheaper the longer no one signs them??  Think Kendrys Morales a few years back when he didn't get signed until like May or June??  I really don't think those guys want that, so they may be panicking a little out there.  Especially because they may have already bought their kids that GI Joe doll with the Kung Fu grip, they may want to get something done so they can get something instead of waiting around too long?? 

 

Maybe, we will have to wait and see.  I know it has been irritating me that I haven't seen much action with the Twins and a real pitcher this off season even though most of us think or know that is what they need, now I'm looking at it as this might even work out better the longer it drags out??  

 

IT WAS ZACH DUKE... IT WAS ZACH DUKE... IT WAS ZACH DUKE. 

DimPerfectAmethystsunbird-max-1mb.gif

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All I'm concerned about is him being capable of pitching game 163 and beyond. How would Cobb or Lynn even contribute in a one game playoff? They probably don't start over Berrios or Santana.

You don't spent 100M for a game that may or may not occur. Interesting to note. The board was screaming for Berrios to start game 163 in 2015. I don't recall anyone wanting him to start game 163 in 2017.

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2019 also means the possibility of replacing both Mauer and Dozier.

If they’re ignoring 2018 in favor of 2019, I’m even less impressed with new leadership. This team is ready now, holes don’t get cheaper to fill, and new holes pop up all the time.

Get on with it already.

There are no signs whatsoever that they are ignoring 2018, in favor of 2019. Patience is a virtue.

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