Article: MIN 10, TB 6: Twins Prevail Thanks to Big Error

[Tom Froemming]

The Twins had to take the lead on four separate occasions, as Tampa Bay just kept battling back, but outlasted the Rays Wednesday afternoon. A costly error in the top of the seventh finally served as the dagger, as the Twins tallied three runs that inning.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs)

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Brian Dozier got things started with a leadoff home run. He now has 29 homers, which is the second-most in his career. The Rays answered with a run of their own in the bottom of the inning, but Ehire Adrianza put the Twins back on top with a three-run homer in the top of the second.

 

Tampa caught back up with a three-run shot of their own in the bottom of the third via Lucas Duda. Eduardo Escobar broke the tie with a two-run single in the top of the fifth, but the Rays responded with another game-tying homer off the bat of Kevin Kiermaier in the bottom of the inning.

 

The Twins finally took the lead for good in the seventh. Dozier led off the inning with a walk. Jorge Polanco attempted to bunt him over, but got a lot more than he bargained for. The ball was thrown out into right field, Dozier came all the way around to score and Polanco ended up on third.

 

Aaron Slegers made his second-career start. It didn’t go so well. He gave up five runs, including a pair of homers, over 4.0 innings. Buddy Boshers was the first man out of the bullpen, primarily to get a lefty-lefty matchup with Kiermaier. The strategy made sense, as only seven of his 42 career homers entering today had come against left-handers, but Boshers served up a homer anyway. Then again, Kiermaier also hit a two-run single off Buddy Monday night, so maybe he just has his number.

 

From there, the rest of the bullpen took care of business. Ryan Pressly (1.1 IP), Taylor Rogers (1.1 IP), Trevor Hildenberger (1.0 IP) and Matt Belisle (1.0 IP) made sure there would be no more Tampa Bay comebacks, as they shut out the Rays for 4.2 innings.

 

Eduardo Escobar had a big game, going 3-for-5 with a triple, three RBI and two runs scored. Chris Gimenez also reached safely three times, tallying a pair of singles and a walk.

 

Standings

The Angels won last night to take hold of the second wild card spot, but this victory puts the Twins in a temporary deadlock with Anaheim. The Angels-A’s were already underway when this was published.

 

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

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Looking Ahead

Thu: Twins (Kyle Gibson) at Kansas City (Sam Gaviglio), 7:15 pm CT

Fri: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Kansas City (Ian Kennedy), 7:15 pm CT

Sat: Twins (Jose Berrios) at Kansas City (Jake Junis), 6:15 pm CT

 

Looking Back

Tue: TB 2, MIN 0: Too Little, Too Later

Mon: TB 11, MIN 4: Bullpen Lets Game Get Out Of Hand

Sun: KC 5, MIN 4: What Even Is A Swing, Anyway?

 

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[Mike Sixel]

Twins tried to give up an out in a game where no pitchers were succeeding, but TB would have none of it! It's nice to win. Much nicer than not winning.

[mikelink45]

Boshers has been a good story, but going forward we need better pitchers in these situations and Buddy is not the answer.  Glad we won, but little things are important going forward. 

[blindeke]

Having a bullpen that large is crazytown.

[mickeymental]

angels lost. guess that means they quit trying.

[yarnivek1972]

Boshers has been a good story, but going forward we need better pitchers in these situations and Buddy is not the answer. Glad we won, but little things are important going forward.

He has a career .580ish OPS vs LHB. That's pretty good. Really good, even. If he were perfect against them it would be .000. Point being finding a guy who is substantially better vs LHB is not likely. Andrew Miller has obviously had a much longer career, but his career OPS vs LHB is in the mid .600 range. Jesse Orrosco's career OPS vs LHB was .588, and he's considered one of the best ever.

[ashbury]

Tue: TB 2, MIN 0: Too Little, Too Later

This would potentially have been a good title.

[h2oface]

Watching Boshers come in, nibble out of the zone, (actually, his third pitch was a perfect strike in the very upper inside corner of the zone, and the umpire, as usual, mis-called it as a ball even though he was looking right at it at about eye level in his crouch over the inside shoulder of the catcher) and then after going 3-0, got the count to 3-2 with a couple of good sinkers, but then threw a no movement no sink sinker right down the very middle of the zone at all of 90mph. Blast off.

 

Hard for me to make excuses for him at all, past present or future. YUK!

 

At least Pressly didn't blow it up today. He came close, but survived.

[mikelink45]

 

He has a career .580ish OPS vs LHB. That's pretty good. Really good, even. If he were perfect against them it would be .000. Point being finding a guy who is substantially better vs LHB is not likely. Andrew Miller has obviously had a much longer career, but his career OPS vs LHB is in the mid .600 range. Jesse Orrosco's career OPS vs LHB was .588, and he's considered one of the best ever.

He has had 50% of inherited runners score and he been sent down repeatedly which indicates that management is not that sold on him either.  For August and September he has given up six runs in six innings - not counting inherited runners.  I am glad you like him, but for me he has passed his point of reliability. 

[DocBauer]

Boshers is not just a nice story, he's been useful. Unfortunately, he was more useful last season. He's the kind of guy I'd like to keep around, but in AAA for when needed. Really hoping for Enns, Moya or Turley to lay claim to the second LH bullpen spot. Would love Jay, and his early rehab returns have been solid, but he's probably missed too much of the season to be counted on for the beginning of 2018.

 

Does anyone have stats on Pressly? He's had a couple rough appearances...most relievers do...but since end of June, first of July, didn't I read somewhere that he has been pretty darn good? I'm still encouraged for his role next season.

[Mr. Brooks]

He has a career .580ish OPS vs LHB. That's pretty good. Really good, even. If he were perfect against them it would be .000. Point being finding a guy who is substantially better vs LHB is not likely. Andrew Miller has obviously had a much longer career, but his career OPS vs LHB is in the mid .600 range. Jesse Orrosco's career OPS vs LHB was .588, and he's considered one of the best ever.

That'd be great if he was used as a LOOGY, but he's not.

Career. 803 OPS against RH hitters, whom he's faced 50% more than LH hitters this year.

[yarnivek1972]

That'd be great if he was used as a LOOGY, but he's not.

Career. 803 OPS against RH hitters, whom he's faced 50% more than LH hitters this year.

Is it his fault who Molitor lets him face?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

He has a career .580ish OPS vs LHB. That's pretty good. Really good, even. If he were perfect against them it would be .000. Point being finding a guy who is substantially better vs LHB is not likely. Andrew Miller has obviously had a much longer career, but his career OPS vs LHB is in the mid .600 range. Jesse Orrosco's career OPS vs LHB was .588, and he's considered one of the best ever.

I agree with you on the splits, and Ryan O'Rourke has even better numbers than any of those guys (though far fewer batters faced, obviously)

[yarnivek1972]

I agree with you on the splits, and Ryan O'Rourke has even better numbers than any of those guys (though far fewer batters faced, obviously)

I guess I meant finding a guy this year. O'Rourke has a pretty small sample size to judge, but what he did vs LHB in 2016 certainly can't be ignored. One would think a guy in his role, who really wasn't a hard thrower to begin with, should be able to bounce back better than a hard thrower like Burdi, or a starter like May.

[70charger]

Angels lost. So there's that.

[Mr. Brooks]

Is it his fault who Molitor lets him face?

No, it's not his fault, but the fact remains regardless.

So long as they are keeping Molitor, they can't have a straight LOOGY on roster, because Molitor won't use him properly.

[mikelink45]

 

Boshers is not just a nice story, he's been useful. Unfortunately, he was more useful last season. He's the kind of guy I'd like to keep around, but in AAA for when needed. Really hoping for Enns, Moya or Turley to lay claim to the second LH bullpen spot. Would love Jay, and his early rehab returns have been solid, but he's probably missed too much of the season to be counted on for the beginning of 2018.

Does anyone have stats on Pressly? He's had a couple rough appearances...most relievers do...but since end of June, first of July, didn't I read somewhere that he has been pretty darn good? I'm still encouraged for his role next season.

Here is is game log - http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/33072/ryan-pressly he has been very good for August and September.   The problem is that very high percentage of his inherited runners score - http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/minnesota-twins-team-stats?season=2016&category=PITCHING+RELIEF&group=1&sort=15&time=0&pos=0&qual=0&splitType=128 and I cannot break that down by month, but 41% is too much. 

[yarnivek1972]

Here is is game log - http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/33072/ryan-pressly he has been very good for August and September. The problem is that very high percentage of his inherited runners score - http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/minnesota-twins-team-stats?season=2016&category=PITCHING+RELIEF&group=1&sort=15&time=0&pos=0&qual=0&splitType=128 and I cannot break that down by month, but 41% is too much.

I'm not willing to put that ALL on him. Some of it could be Molitor letting him face RHB with runners on. For a specialist like Boshers, the two most important numbers are how he does against LHB and how he does against the first batter he faces (which, in theory should almost always be a LHB). He gave up a homer to a leftie the other day. That's his failure all the way. But, it does happen. Even O'Rourke gave up the one to Granderson last year.

 

I haven't been able to locate first batter faced data, but I know I have seen it before. It's a very key stat for a reliever. After all, you were brought in to get that guy.

 

btw, looking at game logs on B-R, one can check monthly inherited runner data. For Boshers: April 1-0, May 0-0, June 7-3, July 2-2, August 6-0, September 4-3. So, he did fine in August. Other than that, not so much.

Edited September 7, 2017 by yarnivek1972

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm not willing to put that ALL on him. Some of it could be Molitor letting him face RHB with runners on. For a specialist like Boshers, the two most important numbers are how he does against LHB and how he does against the first batter he faces (which, in theory should almost always be a LHB). He gave up a homer to a leftie the other day. That's his failure all the way. But, it does happen. Even O'Rourke gave up the one to Granderson last year.

 

I haven't been able to locate first batter faced data, but I know I have seen it before. It's a very key stat for a reliever. After all, you were brought in to get that guy.

 

btw, looking at game logs on B-R, one can check monthly inherited runner data. For Boshers: April 1-0, May 0-0, June 7-3, July 2-2, August 6-0, September 4-3. So, he did fine in August. Other than that, not so much.

I believe the poster was referring to Pressly, not Boshers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here is is game log - http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/33072/ryan-pressly he has been very good for August and September. The problem is that very high percentage of his inherited runners score - http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/minnesota-twins-team-stats?season=2016&category=PITCHING+RELIEF&group=1&sort=15&time=0&pos=0&qual=0&splitType=128 and I cannot break that down by month, but 41% is too much.

Those are 2016 stats. Pressly is at 32% inherited runners scored this year - not great, but basically league average.

[mikelink45]

 

I'm not willing to put that ALL on him. Some of it could be Molitor letting him face RHB with runners on. For a specialist like Boshers, the two most important numbers are how he does against LHB and how he does against the first batter he faces (which, in theory should almost always be a LHB). He gave up a homer to a leftie the other day. That's his failure all the way. But, it does happen. Even O'Rourke gave up the one to Granderson last year.

I haven't been able to locate first batter faced data, but I know I have seen it before. It's a very key stat for a reliever. After all, you were brought in to get that guy.

btw, looking at game logs on B-R, one can check monthly inherited runner data. For Boshers: April 1-0, May 0-0, June 7-3, July 2-2, August 6-0, September 4-3. So, he did fine in August. Other than that, not so much.

 Nice response.  I am still not a Bosher backer, but I appreciate having data to look at. 

[mikelink45]

 

I'm not willing to put that ALL on him. Some of it could be Molitor letting him face RHB with runners on. For a specialist like Boshers, the two most important numbers are how he does against LHB and how he does against the first batter he faces (which, in theory should almost always be a LHB). He gave up a homer to a leftie the other day. That's his failure all the way. But, it does happen. Even O'Rourke gave up the one to Granderson last year.

I haven't been able to locate first batter faced data, but I know I have seen it before. It's a very key stat for a reliever. After all, you were brought in to get that guy.

btw, looking at game logs on B-R, one can check monthly inherited runner data. For Boshers: April 1-0, May 0-0, June 7-3, July 2-2, August 6-0, September 4-3. So, he did fine in August. Other than that, not so much.

 Nice response.  I am still not a Bosher backer, but I appreciate having data to look at. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Also, Boshers is not a specialist.

He SHOULD be, but unfortunately he's not used that way.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I've got a crazy theory that inherited runners, if they score, should count towards the former and latter pitcher, on a proportional basis.

 

So if Presley relieves Colón with men on second and third, and both score, for the runner on second, I would give Colón 0.5 runs towards his ERA, and Presley 0.5 towards his. For the runner on third, I would give 0.75 to Colón and 0.25 to Presley.

 

It's not a perfect system, by many measures...but it's better than the current system, which doesn't make any sense at all.

[DocBauer]

Here is is game log - http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/33072/ryan-pressly he has been very good for August and September.   The problem is that very high percentage of his inherited runners score - http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/minnesota-twins-team-stats?season=2016&category=PITCHING+RELIEF&group=1&sort=15&time=0&pos=0&qual=0&splitType=128 and I cannot break that down by month, but 41% is too much.

 

I don't think a closer and save numbers should just be dismissed despite a recent trend to do so and focus more on "high leverage" situations. After all, it's still an important function of a complete bullpen. But it does seem to me certain guys, for whatever the reason, do better with inherited runners than others. (I can pretty much guarantee you that ALL RP would prefer to start an inning or come in with no-one on base). When you watch Kintzler take over the role as he did, or the way Belisle has slid in to the role post Kintzler trade, (SSS I know), I have to wonder about Pressly maybe assuming that role next season.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I've got a crazy theory that inherited runners, if they score, should count towards the former and latter pitcher, on a proportional basis.

So if Presley relieves Colón with men on second and third, and both score, for the runner on second, I would give Colón 0.5 runs towards his ERA, and Presley 0.5 towards his. For the runner on third, I would give 0.75 to Colón and 0.25 to Presley.

It's not a perfect system, by many measures...but it's better than the current system, which doesn't make any sense at all.

 

there are stats that do this already, w/o trying to parse out the earned runs....

[jimmer]

 

there are stats that do this already, w/o trying to parse out the earned runs....

and if you don't care about ERA...

[yarnivek1972]

 

I don't think a closer and save numbers should just be dismissed despite a recent trend to do so and focus more on "high leverage" situations. After all, it's still an important function of a complete bullpen. But it does seem to me certain guys, for whatever the reason, do better with inherited runners than others. (I can pretty much guarantee you that ALL RP would prefer to start an inning or come in with no-one on base). When you watch Kintzler take over the role as he did, or the way Belisle has slid in to the role post Kintzler trade, (SSS I know), I have to wonder about Pressly maybe assuming that role next season.

 

 

Typically, guys that do well with runners on have a tendency to induce swings and misses.  That's to some degree Pressly (moreso than say Rogers or Belisle certainly).  But it hasn't worked out that way. Largely a command issue IMO.  He just isn't hitting his spots like he should be.  Some guys never do.

 

Sure, a guy like Kintzler who has a tendency to induce ground balls can succeed coming in with runners on and induce a GDP.  But, what if there are runners on second and third with no one out?  Ground ball probably scores a run.  If it sneaks through a drawn in infield, it probably scores two.

[DocBauer]

Agreed Pressly and his SO stuff should play up in a setup role. And hopefully he can iron out those bouts of inconsistent control. Simply conjecturing that in a closer role like Kintzler was used, now Besisle, coming in to startbthe 9th might mitigate those lapses and make him an effective "finisher" if you will.

 

Boy, his arm sure plays up though, doesn't it.