Article: Twins Daily Official MLB Draft Day 1

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm really nervous about two-way players, but that's just my two cents without any supporting evidence.

How often do teams let two-way players both continue to pitch and then also play on the field? Never? To me that means you no longer have the kid you drafted.

 

Never. 

[gunnarthor]

If the Twins take Lewis, then they have to have something planned at 35/37. Do we know who represents Lewis? I don't think it was Boras.

[Roaddog]

I think Romero drops more than people think. And I don't think he's in play at 35 or 37. I'm thinking prep arms.

[Hrbowski]

 

If the Twins take Lewis, then they have to have something planned at 35/37. Do we know who represents Lewis? I don't think it was Boras.

It is Boras.

[gunnarthor]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/235886620/mock-draft-for-first-round-of-2017-mlb-draft/

 

Both Callis and Mayo have the Twins taking McKay with Lewis in consideration only if he's really cheap.

 

1. Twins
Mayo: Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, Louisville - The Twins are still looking at multiple candidates, with Vanderbilt's Kyle Wright, and high schoolers Hunter Greene, Royce Lewis and MacKenzie Gore still being kicked around. But McKay looks like the odds-on favorite right now, and they would draft him as a pitcher.
Callis: Brendan McKay, 1B/LHP, Louisville - Minnesota prefers McKay as a potential No. 2 starter but likely will give him the chance to both hit and pitch at the start of his career. California high school shortstop/outfielder Lewis appears to be Plan B, but only if he would cost significantly less than McKay, which won't happen.

[gunnarthor]

 

It is Boras.

Well that won't happen.

[Roaddog]

I wouldn't say it won't happen. Even with cutting a deal Lewis would be making more money and so would boras

[Seth Stohs]

From Passan (via twitter): "There's a strong sense the Twins are down to two choices with the No. 1 pick tonight: Louisville LHP/1B Brendan McKay and HS SS Royce Lewis."

 

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/874301769530191872 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

From Passan (via twitter): "There's a strong sense the Twins are down to two choices with the No. 1 pick tonight: Louisville LHP/1B Brendan McKay and HS SS Royce Lewis."

 

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/874301769530191872 

 

so they are passing on the top upside pitchers. Great. 

[Vanimal46]

The average fastball in the MLB is 94 MPH. Considering the Twins have been behind the 8 ball for years using power pitchers, I'm very disappointed they're targeting another 88-91 MPH pitcher. 

[ALessKosherScott]

I think Lewis makes a lot of sense if you don't buy Wright's upside or Greene's development curve. Good swing, great speed, could wind up just about anywhere on the diamond.

 

I also think McKay's bat is the safest pick in the draft. 

[gunnarthor]

mlbpipeline and minorleague ball both have McKay above Wright. BA and fangraphs have Wright above McKay. So McKay isn't a horrible choice. He's either the best or second best college arm. Or the Twins might love his bat after they look at it in person.

[Roaddog]

It will be interesting what they do if it's McKay. I think his bat is better than his pitching at this point.

[Pardon My Dinger]

So, the idea is that Baz is one of the best pitchers available, but a team will have to buy him away from college? Interesting. 

 

But, still, what makes him more intriguing than Greene? And what makes Lewis worth the gamble, given that two of our top prospects (Gordon, Javier) are already at SS? 

 

I don't like it. 

[Bob Sacamento]

The Draft is a gamble we all know that, McKay is a good way to go if you want to bet your dollar and get your dollar back.  In other words, he's safe that he'll be a big leaguer but you're not going to walk away from the table rich, you also won't walk away broke.  Personally, I wouldn't go that route especially with him on the mound.

 

The talk of Royce Lewis is very intriguing, he's a five tool infield talent and he'll save you some money early on (how much is the big question) to take a fallen prospect at 35 or 37 which there will be a few left as there always are.

 

But I'm in the Wright camp at this point, due to the ceiling/floor combo.

[70charger]

I'm going to go on record with my personal choices, just so that I have something to regret later.

 

1. Wright

2. Greene/Gore

3. McKay

4. Lewis

 

It looks like I'm not getting my choices today, doesn't it?

[Willihammer]

Falvey did suggest in an interview with the Pioneer Press a few weeks ago that he was open to the idea of McKay developing as a two-way player for (I'm paraphrasing) "as long as he can do both successfully." He gave the indication that performance would dictate whether he had to abandon one or the other.

[jimbo92107]

Wright, Gore, Greene, McKay. 

 

Twins need a good starting pitcher asap to help the Sano generation win a title. Wright gets there quickest, is most likely to contribute significantly.

 

Gore could be the best pitcher, but he's just coming out of HS. A lefty with drop and drive like Hammels or Kershaw could be a win-churning ace for years... a few years from now.

 

Greene sounds like the physical phenom of the draft, but he's also a HS kid, so it's years away. To that you add the problem of the inverted W. If minor league coaches don't iron out that flaw immediately, he's TJ bound. 

 

McKay, like Wright, is fast to the majors, but I don't get the excitement of him as a pitcher. Low mph heat from a college guy? Unless he's got the world's most amazing off-speed stuff, I pass on that. Otherwise, he's a gifted hitting 1B, which is wonderful...somewhere in Round Two.

 

If the Twins really do take McKay, it will remind me of the Vikings using their first pick on Laquon Treadwell, a talented WR with unimpressive speed. I will wonder why, and hope the scouts are seeing virtues I don't understand.

[Intramural Legend]

 

I'm going to go on record with my personal choices, just so that I have something to regret later.

 

1. Wright

2. Greene/Gore

3. McKay

4. Lewis

 

It looks like I'm not getting my choices today, doesn't it?

 

I feel like this is a good idea. Make it official everyone!

 

1) McKay

2) Gore

3) Greene

4) Wright

5) Lewis

[nater79a]

 

I found the note very interesting on the BA mock, they said a Twins front office guy says the pick is down to 4, McKay, Wright, Greene, and Lewis. It's very interesting that Gore was removed but not Lewis, I wonder if a pre draft deal could be done with him a la Correa in 2012, if you remember Correa was ranked in the 5-8 range that year and nobody had mocked him to the Astros, it was practically all Appel and a few Buxton

 

Gore and Lewis both Boras clients.

 

My guess is that Boras realizes Lewis could fall further than Gore if not taken at 1-1.  Maybe some deal-making going on.

 

[Miles Tones]

1 - Gore

2 - Wright

3 - McKay

4 - Greene

.

.

.

5 - Lewis

[AZTwin]

My picks

 

1. Gore

2. Greene

3. Lewis

4. Wright

5. Adele or however you spell it

6. McKay

[rdehring]

I'd have to agree.   As any one who has watched Gonsalves pitch, those numbers don't do his stuff or his ability to "feel" his pitches justice.   I saw Mckay pitch against Kentucky, and he looked really good against a good hitting team.   His stuff was just sneaky good.  

 

I've said it before, but pure velocity is overrated.   Location and movement (as well as "feel") will always trump pure speed (Greg Maddux anyone?), and I'd take that in a heart beat over it.

Was at a dinner one night with a crafty former MLB lefty. His comment was something (I won't print his exact words) to the effect...all this hoopla about throwing 90-95 is nothing but B.....He went on to say he never got close to 90, hit your spots with good stuff and you can be very successful.

 

Didn't check, but I recall he had something like 360 MLB wins, which I believe was the most ever for any lefty.

[Willihammer]

 

Gore and Lewis both Boras clients.

 

My guess is that Boras realizes Lewis could fall further than Gore if not taken at 1-1.  Maybe some deal-making going on.

I think with Boras the concern could be less about the signing bonus and more about the inability to extend his clients. He usually takes them to FA where obviously if they're any good never lands them in MN. Also as Gunnarthor said there could be a clubhouse issue if the player causes any of his teammates to switch agencies. Its unfortunate but seems likely to be a factor. The Twins very rarely draft Boras clients with their first pick.

[nicksaviking]

All things being equal, I think I'd prefer Lewis over McKay.

 

If it is Lewis though, it won't be equal; if it's so they can get Baz at 35 I'd be OK with the pick. Baz would be my fourth choice for pitcher after Greene, Gore and Wright. Watching the top prep bat and the 3rd best prep arm develop would hold my interest for quite awhile.

 

And then Rooker at 37. And stick him at DH in September.

[Willihammer]

 

Was at a dinner one night with a crafty former MLB lefty. His comment was something (I won't print his exact words) to the effect...all this hoopla about throwing 90-95 is nothing but B.....He went on to say he never got close to 90, hit your spots with good stuff and you can be very successful.

Didn't check, but I recall he had something like 360 MLB wins, which I believe was the most ever for any lefty.

Warren Spahn?

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Was at a dinner one night with a crafty former MLB lefty. His comment was something (I won't print his exact words) to the effect...all this hoopla about throwing 90-95 is nothing but B.....He went on to say he never got close to 90, hit your spots with good stuff and you can be very successful.

Didn't check, but I recall he had something like 360 MLB wins, which I believe was the most ever for any lefty.

I sincerely hope you're not referring to all-time great Greg Maddux. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Was at a dinner one night with a crafty former MLB lefty. His comment was something (I won't print his exact words) to the effect...all this hoopla about throwing 90-95 is nothing but B.....He went on to say he never got close to 90, hit your spots with good stuff and you can be very successful.

Didn't check, but I recall he had something like 360 MLB wins, which I believe was the most ever for any lefty.

 

It's possible that athletes are better, and that the game has changed....

[nicksaviking]

Also, I think the Boras stuff might be overblown. He doesn't tell his client what to do, he only advises, and there's a strong likelihood that both the player and the agent have considerable interest in striking a deal to be known as the first overall pick. And of course the boatloads of money that he'd get instead of going 4th or 5th.

 

Greene and Gore are likely going 2 and 3, a Lewis selection by the Twins hurts McKay and Wright, not any other prep guys and likely not Boras' other guy Gore.

[Possumlad]

1) McKay

2) Gore

3) Greene

4) Lewis

5) Wright

 

I don't understand the general anti-McKay leanings around here. While he's unlikely to both hit & pitch for long, the fact that he can do both greatly increases the chance the he hits on one of the two.

 

Simple probability would dictate that if he has a 50% chance to succeed as a pitcher, and 50% chance to succeed as a hitter (both of which seem reasonable), then he has a 75% chance to hit on one of the two. 

 

Given that there is no clear consensus generational talent in this draft, why not go w/ the higher probability play? I suppose you could argue that Greene's as likely to hit on one of the two, but I don't see that from a HS Right-hander w/ no secondary pitches. 

Edited June 12, 2017 by Possumlad