Article: Twins Daily Official MLB Draft Day 1

[Mike Sixel]

 

First prep bats taken since 2008:

 

Tim Beckham

Donovan Tate

Manny Machado (as Bryce Harper was technically a 17-year-old Juco guy)

Bubba Starling

Carlos Correa

Clint Frazier

Nick Gordon

Brendan Rodgers

Mickey Moniak

 

some good/great/awesome names there.

[nicksaviking]

First RH college arms taken since 2008:

 

Andrew Cashner

Stephen Strasburg

Barret Loux

Gerrit Cole

Kevin Gausman

Mark Appel.

Aaron Nola

Dillon Tate

Cal Quantrill

 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

some good/great/awesome names there.

 

I'm just posting these for fun, FYI. Not to sway any arguments.

[markos]

 

How many college guys in the top 15 or so picks didn't have big fastballs? 

More than you might think. I'm defining 'big fastball' as 'sits 95+, touches 98+', with a touch less for lefties. So I don't consider Wright as having a big fastball either. But over the past 10 years, it is a pretty easy way (at least with my fuzzy, potentially self-selecting memory of past scouting reports) to put Rodon, Hoffman, Appel, Gray, Gausman, Cole, Harvey, Strasburg and Price in one group, and Tate, Jay, Fulmer, Nola, Freeland, Zimmer, Heaney, Hultzen, Bauer, Pomeranz, Minor, Leake, and Matusz in another.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Gordon. 

 

If they draft a guy that isn't better than him, sigh. But, others have said on other threads that those two might be behind Gordon, hence my question.

I like Gordon alot and have seen him play since his Sophomore year in high school, I've always loved the strong hit tool, quick wrists, fast feet and still growing power as well as staying in the middle infield.  But Lewis' total package eclipses him even if he has to switch off to 3B.  And McKay has to be 1st overall if the organization thinks he's an "ace" or middle of lineup hitter.

 

I'll never forget at a Perfect Game event in Ft Myers, Nick Gordon was playing and his brother Dee and father Tom were in the stands watching, I got to talk to them both as I was a huge Flash fan back in day and love Dee's wheels.  When I told Dee I was big fan of his game play, and he said if you think I'm good you should see my brother. He's going to be better than me.  Tom just stood there shaking his head agreeign.

[drjim]

The lesson with all those listings is obviously to take the bat!

[bluechipper]

 

I generally agree that lefties can get away with slightly less mph than a righty. Though I'm a big believer in velocity being a key indicator of a pitcher's success. There's a new article on Fangraphs "In Game Velocity Changes - When Fatigue Attacks" that discusses the fine line of velocity and a pitcher's success. 

Matt Harvey for example was very very good when he sat at 96 and 2 plus secondary pitches. Now he looks like a shell of his former self now that he's sitting at 92. Arietta this season is seeing a drop in velocity, and as a result, struggling with a 4.68 ERA. 

If McKay is sitting at ~90 right now, and he loses any sort of velocity along the way, I fear the Twins drafted Tommy Milone. 

The 2 AL leaders in ERA are lefties who rarely throw above 90. The best postseason pitcher of this era throws 90-92. 

[nicksaviking]

1st LH HS arms since 2008:

 

Mike Montgomery

Tyler Matzek

Jesse Biddle

Kevin Matthews

Max Fried

Trey Ball

Brady Aiken

Kolby Allard

Braxton Garrett

 

 

 

 

 

[markos]

 

I like Gordon alot and have seen him play since his Sophomore year in high school, I've always loved the strong hit tool, quick wrists, fast feet and still growing power as well as staying in the middle infield.  But Lewis' total package eclipses him even if he has to switch off to 3B.  And McKay has to be 1st overall if the organization thinks he's an "ace" or middle of lineup hitter.

 

I'll never forget at a Perfect Game event in Ft Myers, Nick Gordon was playing and his brother Dee and father Tom were in the stands watching, I got to talk to them both as I was a huge Flash fan back in day and love Dee's wheels.  When I told Dee I was big fan of his game play, and he said if you think I'm good you should see my brother. He's going to be better than me.  Tom just stood there shaking his head agreeign.

Where do you think Gordon would get drafted today if he was a college junior and, let's say, the third best hitter in the SEC?

[nicksaviking]

1st RH HS pitcher taken since 2008:

 

Aaron Crow

Matt Hobgood

Jameson Taillon

Dylan Bundy

Nick Travieso

Kohl Stewart

Tyler Kolek

Ashe Russell

Ian Anderson

 

 

 

 

 

 

[InfraRen]

Nate

3:13 Thanks for the chat Keith! What are your thoughts on the recent rumors that the Twins might be trying to cut a deal with Royce Lewis at 1-1 and, if they do, who might they be considering at 35?

Keith Law

3:14 That's been rumored for a few weeks, but I don't see why Lewis would take an underslot deal at 1. He's going 4 or 5 at worst, so why would he sign for less than McKay, who's also going 4 or 5 if he doesn't go 1, and has less leverage than Lewis does? I could be way off but I wonder if there's some posturing here to negotiate McKay (or someone else) down.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

One more. 1st college bat taken since 2008:

 

Pedro Alvarez

Dustin Ackley

Christian Colon

Anthony Rendon

Mike Zunino

Kris Bryant

Kyle Schwarber

Dansby Swanson

Nick Senzel

 

[drjim]

 

Where do you think Gordon would get drafted today if he was a college junior and, let's say, the third best hitter in the SEC?

 

And a legit SS? I would guess #1.

 

I don't think it would be a disaster if the 1-1 pick ends up as the Twins #2. That would say a lot about Gordon and the relative weakness of this draft.

[drjim]

 

One more. 1st college bat taken since 2008:

 

Pedro Alvarez

Dustin Ackley

Christian Colon

Anthony Rendon

Mike Zunino

Kris Bryant

Kyle Schwarber

Dansby Swanson

Nick Senzel

 

Ackley is probably the most surprising prospect (bust) of the last 10 years.

[Vanimal46]

 

The 2 AL leaders in ERA are lefties who rarely throw above 90. The best postseason pitcher of this era throws 90-92. 

 

The 2 NL leaders in ERA throw 93 and 94... We may just have to agree to disagree about our opinions on velocity. 

[RaoulDuke]

I prefer Wright or Green.  If the select Mckay I hope its just as a pitcher.  I think for someone to be a mlb 2 way player they would have to not be elite at either one and that should be the target at 1:1. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Where do you think Gordon would get drafted today if he was a college junior and, let's say, the third best hitter in the SEC?

He'd be in the talks for 1:1, this draft is not very deep at all, most the talent is Top 20-30 prospects after that it starts to get murky.  Also this is one of the worst years for middle infield whether prep or college.

[InfraRen]

Justin

3:21 To a draft newbie, if the consensus top talent by all accounts is Greene, why would the Twins not take him first? Higher probability of flameout as a high schooler than a college player?

Keith Law

3:21 He's not the consensus by all accounts. He's #1 on some boards, not all, maybe not even a majority.

 

 

[InfraRen]

Intramural Legend

3:21 Is McKay being underrated at this point? Statistically (pitching specific), he was much better than Wright

Keith Law

3:22 Wright was better in the second half; he improved while McKay seemed to tire (unsurprisingly). And durability is a factor teams will consider.

 

 

[InfraRen]

Ian

3:24 Is McKay at #1 a mistake?

Keith Law

3:25 No. I think taking Lewis over him, Wright, or Greene might be a mistake ... but I can't even say "would be" because who the heck knows? I can't even get consensus on what kind of hitting prospect Lewis is from scouts and execs I've asked.

 

 

DA

3:27 Any chance Minnesota goes Lewis #1 and uses extra money on Shane Baz at #35?

Keith Law

3:28 I don't think so.

 

 

Edited June 12, 2017 by InfraRen

[Intramural Legend]

Tim (KC)

3:25 Keith, disregarding your mocks, how would you draft if you were the GM of each of the teams with top 5 picks?

Keith Law

3:26 That's what my Big Board represents - ignoring signability too, plus stuff I don't get, like medicals or drug test results.

 

 

This seems like a pretty important item to remember

[Steve Lein]

 

1st LH HS arms since 2008:

 

Mike Montgomery

Tyler Matzek

Jesse Biddle

Kevin Matthews

Max Fried

Trey Ball

Brady Aiken

Kolby Allard

Braxton Garrett

 

Last three are all casualties to Tommy John already in their careers.

[Danchat]

Man, it kind of stinks to see that this isn't a very good draft class after we tanked all of last year to earn this pick. I kind of wish there was a clear cut #1 guy we could take and not have any debate, but that wouldn't be much fun, would it?
 

I know little to nothing about the MLB draft (I'm actually a huge NFL draftnik though), but I'll give my input. Wright's my #1 guy because I'd rather draft a college guy and have him up in the majors faster, but that's just because I want immediate gratification    . Greene and Gore are #2 and #3 because of their upside, but they have some risks. Lewis is my #4 as he's OK but not really 1st overall material. McKay is pretty low as I wouldn't want to draft a guy who tops out at 91mph 1st overall. I know there's precedent for guys to pitch well at that speed, but an injury or two and then he's at the speed level of Tommy Milone. We didn't lose 103 games to draft a pitch to contact guy first overall! Maybe Greene and McKay can be batters, but I want a starting pitcher with that pick. That's all. 

Edited June 12, 2017 by Danchat

[Steve Lein]

DA
3:27 Any chance Minnesota goes Lewis #1 and uses extra money on Shane Baz at #35?
Keith Law
3:28 I don't think so.

[InfraRen]

Jared S

3:31 Kind of funny Twins rumors went from Greene early, to McKaey, then to Wright, then to maybe McKay and now Lewis. Wild.

Keith Law

3:32 Eh, I don't think there were rumors of the Twins with Greene. It's been mostly McKay/Wright for the last month.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

Ugh. Disappointing that Greene wasn't even on the Twins' radar anymore as of a month ago. 

[Tibs]

 

All things being equal, I think I'd prefer Lewis over McKay.

 

If it is Lewis though, it won't be equal; if it's so they can get Baz at 35 I'd be OK with the pick. Baz would be my fourth choice for pitcher after Greene, Gore and Wright. Watching the top prep bat and the 3rd best prep arm develop would hold my interest for quite awhile.

 

And then Rooker at 37. And stick him at DH in September.

If they somehow pulled that off I would run to Minneapolis for the next home game.

 

I live in Denver.

[Doubles]

 

Ugh. Disappointing that Greene wasn't even on the Twins' radar anymore as of a month ago. 

Did you hear this directly from a Twins source?  I'd find it extremely hard to believe they weren't aware of him or whatever "on the Twins' radar" means.

 

Remember, around draft time a favorite cliche' of NFL executives is you know they're lying when their lips are moving.  Not saying the Twins are lying, I'm saying I'd be shocked if they weren't well aware of Greene and all potential first round picks leading up to this draft quite some time ago.

[Vanimal46]

 

Did you hear this directly from a Twins source?  I'd find it extremely hard to believe they weren't aware of him or whatever "on the Twins' radar" means.

 

Remember, around draft time a favorite cliche' of NFL executives is you know they're lying when their lips are moving.  Not saying the Twins are lying, I'm saying I'd be shocked if they weren't well aware of Greene and all potential first round picks leading up to this draft quite some time ago.

 

Obviously I haven't heard this directly form a Twins' source. That was my instant reaction reading KLaw's response that InfraRen posted. 

[Willihammer]

 

Last three are all casualties to Tommy John already in their careers.

Huh? Aiken needed TJS but neither Allard or Garrett has, right? Allard has had back surgery (two) tho.