Article: Twins Daily Official MLB Draft Day 1

[nicksaviking]

 

Was at a dinner one night with a crafty former MLB lefty. His comment was something (I won't print his exact words) to the effect...all this hoopla about throwing 90-95 is nothing but B.....He went on to say he never got close to 90, hit your spots with good stuff and you can be very successful.

Didn't check, but I recall he had something like 360 MLB wins, which I believe was the most ever for any lefty.

 

Warren Spahn was an all time great.

 

But despite what Bob Feller liked to claim, no one was throwing all that hard back then. There were probably only a handful of guys who regularly hit 90MPH prior to 1960s.

 

Which was also why those guys could go 8-9 innings every start every 4th day.

[Mike Sixel]

For the Twins....not overall ranking:

 

1. Wright

2. Gore/Greene

.

.

.

4. McKay

.

5. Lewis

[Vanimal46]

 

It's possible that athletes are better, and that the game has changed....

 

Agreed. The velocity era isn't ending anytime soon. Every team is acquiring pitchers that throw 95+. Meanwhile our favorite team is targeting someone who throws 90. Awesome. 

[Vanimal46]

 

1) McKay

2) Gore

3) Greene

4) Lewis

5) Wright

 

I don't understand the general anti-McKay leanings around here. While he's unlikely to both hit & pitch for long, the fact that he can do both greatly increases the chance the he hits on one of the two.

 

Simple probability would dictate that if he has a 50% chance to succeed as a pitcher, and 50% chance to succeed as a hitter (both of which seem reasonable), then he has a 75% chance to hit on one of the two. 

 

Given that there is no clear consensus generational talent in this draft, why not go w/ the higher probability play? I suppose you could argue that Greene's as likely to hit on one of the two, but I don't see that from a HS Right-hander w/ no secondary pitches. 

 

Because the safer play sounds an awful lot like a back of the rotation starter.... I don't want a Kyle Gibson at the #1 overall pick. 

[Roaddog]

For me, I don't care about his lack of velocity. I just am concerned that he was losing velocity at the end of the season.

[Roaddog]

1 Gore

2 Wright

3 Greene

4 McKay

5 Lewis

[InfraRen]

https://twitter.com/FPiliereD1/status/874323558863962116

 

Will be some fun banter between the 2 departments down the road depending on who they take haha.

Edited June 12, 2017 by InfraRen

[Roaddog]

I like that there is healthy discussion. I suppose McKay could turn into a Tom Glavine type. Doesn't throw overly hard, but has control and hits his spots.

[Eris]

 

The average fastball in the MLB is 94 MPH. Considering the Twins have been behind the 8 ball for years using power pitchers, I'm very disappointed they're targeting another 88-91 MPH pitcher. 

I did not watch the game on Saturday.  According to this report, he hit 94 mph (at least once) during the game.  

 

http://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2017-06-10/brendan-mckay-becomes-louisvilles-all-time-strikeout-leader

[nicksaviking]

 

https://twitter.com/FPiliereD1/status/874323558863962116

 

Will be some fun banter between the 2 departments down the road depending on who they take haha.

 

OMG. My brain is about to explode. Dear lord help me, I'm siding with the scouts over the analytics department. The analytics department which I was begging to be improved for a decade.

 

But seriously, is Lewis really the scouts top choice? And is McKay really the analysts top choice? Or are they only the top choices of the two being offered to them because Greene/Gore/Wright aren't on the table?

 

Seems like the Cubs would approve though. They go for the bats early. Of course they can afford to spend on pitchers in free agency.

[Roaddog]

So who makes the final call? Sean Johnson? Falvey?

[InfraRen]

I just hope that McKay's agent keeps calling the Twins and playing this over the phone:

 

[Dr. Evil]

McKay.

 

workhorse

poised

accurate

calm

nice consistent delivery

proven himself at a high level of competition

maturity

sweet swing

 

Pick him.

[gil4]

 

 

I don't understand the general anti-McKay leanings around here. While he's unlikely to both hit & pitch for long, the fact that he can do both greatly increases the chance the he hits on one of the two.

 

Simple probability would dictate that if he has a 50% chance to succeed as a pitcher, and 50% chance to succeed as a hitter (both of which seem reasonable), then he has a 75% chance to hit on one of the two. 

 

I think you're overstating the probabilities, and as soon as he focuses on one, the other drops by at least half. 

[mikecgrimes]

My #1 hope is whoever we get comes in 2+ million under slot with the player being no worse then a top 5 projected pick.  Royce Lewis seems to be the guy that would best fit.  I'm also curiuse what happens to Hunter Greene.  If he goes #2 does he sign slightly over slot, if he drops below 2 then what.  Because of all these factors could the twins convince him to come in slightly under slot.  A lot of phone calls with agents to be made in the next 5 hours, the current rules are easily manipulated to a teams advantage at #1.  Also lets try to get hacked It's comical the best team in baseball with pleanty of great prospects on the way is getting all those extra picks.

[Intramural Legend]

 

https://twitter.com/FPiliereD1/status/874323558863962116

 

Will be some fun banter between the 2 departments down the road depending on who they take haha.

 

If true, this makes me smile.  Really tests the guys that are all in on analytics!

[drjim]

Lewis was always mentioned, but does seem he was flying under the radar the whole time.

 

I'm a Wright guy, but I think I can get on board. Get pitching at 35 and 37.

[Mike Sixel]

 

OMG. My brain is about to explode. Dear lord help me, I'm siding with the scouts over the analytics department. The analytics department which I was begging to be improved for a decade.

 

But seriously, is Lewis really the scouts top choice? And is McKay really the analysts top choice? Or are they only the top choices of the two being offered to them because Greene/Gore/Wright aren't on the table?

 

Seems like the Cubs would approve though. They go for the bats early. Of course they can afford to spend on pitchers in free agency.

 

and they trade a lot more successfully....

[Possumlad]

 

I think you're overstating the probabilities, and as soon as he focuses on one, the other drops by at least half. 

Well I assume he'll focus on whichever looks most promising early in his MiLB career (assuming he does both out of the gates). Given that, 50% on each seems about right given only the information we have today. Of course if he fails at one the probability that he later suceeds at it falls a bunch, but I'm not sure how we'd know that today. 

[bluechipper]

For me, I'd lean towards Wright, but McKay is right there too.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

If true, this makes me smile.  Really tests the guys that are all in on analytics!

 

I was unaware such a person existed.

[Teflon]

Wouldn't you rather have the Hunter Greene story to follow over the next few years regardless of his riskier developmental outlook? What fun that would be!

[Intramural Legend]

 

I was unaware such a person existed.

 

Fans, not front offices

[John Kelsey]

My meaningless opinion:

 

1. Wright

2. Greene

3. Gore

4. Lewis

5. McKay

[bluechipper]

 

Because the safer play sounds an awful lot like a back of the rotation starter.... I don't want a Kyle Gibson at the #1 overall pick. 

There's a reason McKay is viewed as a top 5 pick by everyone. Great command, great curveball, and a good fastball. Who is projecting him as a back end starter?

[Roaddog]

Greene has talent, no doubt. But it's a huge risk taking a guy with just one plus plus pitch. Velocity alone isn't enough. Pat Light can hit 100 too.

[bluechipper]

 

Wouldn't you rather have the Hunter Greene story to follow over the next few years regardless of his riskier developmental outlook? What fun that would be!

I thought it would have been fun to follow Tyler Kolek's progression too.

[Roaddog]

I would rather follow the possibility of a two way star and Shane Baz

[gunnarthor]

That the Scouts like Lewis isn't surprising. He's the kind of guy Twins have targeted for decades - high upside tools to spare HS prospect. He'd be a normal years Twins pick easy.

 

I'm more curious on why the analytics guys like McKay - I would imagine they like him as a pitcher (as reported).

[Vanimal46]

 

There's a reason McKay is viewed as a top 5 pick by everyone. Great command, great curveball, and a good fastball. Who is projecting him as a back end starter?

 

I'm quite concerned about his velocity number in general, and the fact that his velocity drops even lower after 55-60 pitches. I just don't see that combination as a front of the rotation starter.