Article: Miguel Sano Taking Step Into Stardom

[Blake]

I think the question of who may bat behind Sano will be solved pretty soon. 

 

Yes, Mauer has elite defense at 1st but Vargas and Park are both very capable at First Base.

 

I think Mauer either turns into a doubles machine with RISP or the FO starts looking in another direction.

 

I love it when Mauer plays first because I don't worry about balls getting by him. But, at the plate balls seem to get by him a lot.

 

By the way, I just took a look at Joe's WAR and he is just under 2 for the last three years. Which puts him somewhere between solid started and role player, according to FanGraphs.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The average may come down but the power will remain. And when you hit the ball as hard as he does consistently, the BABIP will be elevated from the norm anyways. So it shouldn't fall off the table completely.

 

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that there is probably a correlation between high BABIP and exit velocity.  It certainly gives defenses a smaller window of opportunity to field plays off of his bat. 

 

Not sure if that's the case or not, but it sure makes sense. Yeah, a .450 BABIP isn't sustainable, but he could maintain a pretty high one as long as that EV remains high. 

[Ex-Iowegian]

"The Migg"

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that there is probably a correlation between high BABIP and exit velocity.  It certainly gives defenses a smaller window of opportunity to field plays off of his bat. 

 

Not sure if that's the case or not, but it sure makes sense. Yeah, a .450 BABIP isn't sustainable, but he could maintain a pretty high one as long as that EV remains high. 

Guys like Cabrera and Votto hang in the .350-.360 range. If Sano keeps hammering the ball the way he is right now, that's a reasonable expectation.

 

So obviously the .450 BABIP is going to drop. A lot.

 

Interesting thing I never noticed before: Barry Bonds had a relatively bad career BABIP at .285.

[DaveW]

 

Guys like Cabrera and Votto hang in the .350-.360 range. If Sano keeps hammering the ball the way he is right now, that's a reasonable expectation.

 

So obviously the .450 BABIP is going to drop. A lot.

 

Interesting thing I never noticed before: Barry Bonds had a relatively bad career BABIP at .285.

BABIP is irrelevant when you are mashing 60-70 dongs a year and getting 150 walks a year. When it comes to Bonds, the fact is not a whole lot of his at bats resulted in balls in play.

[70charger]

 

Miguel needs a good nickname. What are some suggestions? I suggest some variation referring to "Exit Velocity".. Maybe "Duck" or a variation of the Chattanooga team name: "Look Out".

 

I'm partial to Gato Grande.

 

One thing I know for sure is that the whole "Miggy" thing needs to stop now. That's Miguel Cabrera, and I don't like Miguel Cabrera.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

BABIP is irrelevant when you are mashing 60-70 dongs a year and getting 150 walks a year. When it comes to Bonds, the fact is not a whole lot of his at bats resulted in balls in play.

I wouldn't say it's irrelevant because there's often a strong correlation between homers and BABIP when you enter the elite echelon of hitters (guys like Votto, Cabrera, Trout, Bryant, et al).

 

Guys who hit the ball really hard (which usually results in a high BABIP) also hit the ball out of the park quite often.

[DaveW]

I wouldn't say it's irrelevant because there's often a strong correlation between homers and BABIP when you enter the elite echelon of hitters (guys like Votto, Cabrera, Trout, Bryant, et al).

 

Guys who hit the ball really hard (which usually results in a high BABIP) also hit the ball out of the park quite often.

I know, I was just sorta being a smart ass in re: Bonds

[Mike Sixel]

Maybe not spending the off season publicly being questioned by your team, and then being moved to a position you've never played before has helped him be more comfortable this season? Just a hunch...

[drjim]

Maybe not spending the off season publicly being questioned by your team, and then being moved to a position you've never played before has helped him be more comfortable this season? Just a hunch...

Losing 15-20 lbs probably helped too.

[Winston Smith]

Where would we be if Billy hadn't broke the bank back in 09 by signing Sano, Kepler and Polanco?

[drjim]

 

Where would we be if Billy hadn't broke the bank back in 09 by signing Sano, Kepler and Polanco?

 

Kepler and Polanco would have been signed under anyone, they were nothing special budget wise. Smith had to really push to get Sano. That was a nice gift to the organization.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Kepler and Polanco would have been signed under anyone, they were nothing special budget wise. Smith had to really push to get Sano. That was a nice gift to the organization.

 

Kepler remains the largest (really only) European signing ever. Are you sure about that?

 

We don't know one way or the other how / who made those decisions, I'm just glad they did.

[drjim]

 

Kepler remains the largest (really only) European signing ever. Are you sure about that?

 

We don't know one way or the other how / who made those decisions, I'm just glad they did.

 

Pretty sure, despite being the highest, he was still only about $700k, Polanco was $575k. They had an international budget that was set and Polanco and Kepler fit into it, and was representative in the years before, and especially after (once Target Field was open). Sano was an off the budget type of deal.

 

I'm very glad they did too. Good scouting. 

[messed up]

On most of his home runs I've called them a   S A N O doubter

[Nick Nelson]

 

I wouldn't say it's irrelevant because there's often a strong correlation between homers and BABIP when you enter the elite echelon of hitters (guys like Votto, Cabrera, Trout, Bryant, et al).

 

Guys who hit the ball really hard (which usually results in a high BABIP) also hit the ball out of the park quite often.

Home runs don't count as balls in play so that's also a factor. In the case of someone like Barry Bonds, that's an awful lot of hits that aren't figuring into BABIP. 

[DocBauer]

"So long Sano"

[DocBauer]

If you keep him in the 3 spot, I think a strong argument could be made for Kepler hitting behind him. If you bump him down to cleanup, how about Dozier-Polanco-Kepler with some combination of Vargas/Grossman/Park batting 5th behind him?

[ScottyB]

I still think he and Buxton should be Thunder and Lightning

[by jiminy]

 

Great to see Sano raking early and showing considerable skill.

 

But, to maintain that, the Twins will need protection for him, or the League will simply walk Sano.  Or HBP when he irritates someone.

 

Mauer?   Uh, no.  That's not protection.

 

Kepler?  Well, maybe, but he's batting up in the order.

 

Castro?  No.  Sorry to say it.

 

Polanco?  Could be, he does hit from both sides, but, not exactly a long ball threat.  As opposing manager, I would much rather pitch to Polanco.

 

Rosario, Buxton and Dozier not good candidates for a wealth of reasons, mainly line-up construction.

 

So, that leaves Grossman and Vargas, the two DHs.  Not going to scare many pitchers out of walking Sano.

 

No sure answer at this point, but without protection for Sano, no viable path for him to dominate, nor for the Twins to crack .500, IMHO.

 

Make someone besides Sano beat you, that's going to be the approach.

 

Why not Dozier?

 

You say it would cause problems with lineup construction. I say, it would kill two birds with one stone. 

 

You'd stop wasting rbi opportunities by leading off with your top slugger (excuse me, second best slugger!) while protecting Sano at the same time. 

 

Preserving the opportunity to hit solo homers, and bat in the bottom of the order, are not things to construct your lineup around!

[Taildragger8791]

 

Pretty sure, despite being the highest, he was still only about $700k, Polanco was $575k. They had an international budget that was set and Polanco and Kepler fit into it, and was representative in the years before, and especially after (once Target Field was open). Sano was an off the budget type of deal.

 

I'm very glad they did too. Good scouting. 

 

They might have fit into the budget, but how do we know that Bill Smith wasn't providing some different direction/priorities at the time that led us to signing those players vs others? It sort of stands out when some of our best international signings the last 10 years came in the short span Smith was at the helm.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Yeah, I never got it. It's the whole "we can't have nice things in Minnesota" type approach.

I do wonder if their is a little racial and language bias in some of the reporting as well, since Sano doesn't fit the Parise, Mauer, Molitor "one of us, one of us" thing that Minnesotan's inexplicably love.

Mauer as a youngster- spent his off-season in cabin with brothers/friends. "That's good"

 

Sano as a youngster- spent his off-season going back to the DR to be with Friends and Family  "IMMATURITY! IMMATURITY!"

Could you imagine the commentary that Sano would be getting these days if he was dating Ms. America? "Distraction! Distraction!"

 

I don't disagree with the overall theme but Mauer is a weird counterexample -- people have been castigating him his entire career.

[drjim]

They might have fit into the budget, but how do we know that Bill Smith wasn't providing some different direction/priorities at the time that led us to signing those players vs others? It sort of stands out when some of our best international signings the last 10 years came in the short span Smith was at the helm.

Also coincides with more resources available. Whether that was driven by Smith or a new reality thanks to Target Field (and other revenue sources) we can't answer.

 

I generally think Smith brought a new aggression made possible by a new revenue reality.

[mikelink45]

I have nothing to add, no wit or wisdom.  I just want to follow a long Sano career and enjoy homer after homer.

[Darius]

He's very impressive. I was questioning him coming off of last year, and after his rough spring. Couldn't have been more wrong.

 

That said, it's still early. This is a jinx waiting to happen.

 

It can't be overstated how important this guy is to this team possibly competing sometime soon.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Home runs don't count as balls in play so that's also a factor. In the case of someone like Barry Bonds, that's an awful lot of hits that aren't figuring into BABIP. 

Oh, I know, I was just surprised by that Bonds number because it was steady throughout his career. Even when he was a speedy gap hitter with good (not amazing) power, his BABIP was still in the .280-.290 range.

 

I wasn't trying to make a point about it, just a little surprised by that number given how good a hitter Bonds was through his career and also how different a hitter he was early vs. late in his career.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Where would we be if Billy hadn't broke the bank back in 09 by signing Sano, Kepler and Polanco?

 

Don't forget Vargas was signed that year too. That's 4 out of 9 guys in our recent lineups signed by Bill Smith in one year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Kepler remains the largest (really only) European signing ever. Are you sure about that?

The Twins signed Alexander Smit for $800k back in 2002. It certainly was not a regular amateur outlay for the club, but they had done it before, and in Europe, no less.

 

Actually Polanco at $750k may have been our record signing for Latin America, at least until Sano was inked a couple months later.

[Pardon My Dinger]

I want his nickname to be 'Big Mig.' Been trying. Not catching on...

[DaveW]

I don't disagree with the overall theme but Mauer is a weird counterexample -- people have been castigating him his entire career.

Rubes yes.

 

I'm talking about the media though, they only got on Mauer the minute he signed his massive deal. Prior to that he was treated as the baby Jesus.

 

This isn't a bash Mauer thing at all btw, just pointing out the Minneapolis medias somewhat obvious racial basis.